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One more plunge!

The LPGA has been traveling to Ranch Mirage, California for 50 years. What began in 1972 became a major championship in 1983, and today is called the Chevron Championship. It will no doubt create some wonderful drama for its last playing at Mission Hills Country Club. Even though most remember the event for the winner's plunge, this golf course rewards great players.

• We'll start with the weather, which should be perfect. Mid 80's and pushing 90 by tournament end, with little to no wind and no rain in the forecast. Looks like perfect conditions for the year's first major championship!
• The Dinah Shore Tournament Course at Mission Hills Country Club always crowns a deserving winner. The reason is simple, players must have complete control of their game to win.
  • 12 of the 14 non-Par 3 holes bend. 7 from right to left and 5 from left to right.
  • Green complexes are elevated and very well protected. As a result, the average winning score over the past 10 years is 13.1 under par.
  • 4 of the key holes are guarded by water and the 18th hole is the ultimate risk-reward final hole especially for the longer hitters.
• Since 2000, only 5 of the winners have been from the USA. In that same time span, 6 winners have been from South Korea. Our last US winner was in 2015.

This will be an emotional tournament. I look for players to compete this week who are in great form and can handle pressure. Finally, they should show the ability to have success at this historic venue.

It's easy to look ahead with a trip down Magnolia lane looming on the horizon this week. Wedged between a WGC and the year's first men's major, the Valero Texas Open tends to give us some great theater with a supporting cast. The TPC layout is very... well... TPC-like in that it rewards great iron players and hot putters. Here's some of the storylines that will make up this year's Masters preview week.

• The winner of this event gets an invitation to the Masters. With only 5 of the Top 20 in the Official World Golf Ranking here, that's an important piece of the narrative.
  • 5 of the last 6 winners of the event leading up to the Masters needed that win in order to gain entry to Magnolia Lane. You wouldn't think it happens that often, but it does.
• Although Greg Norman isn't known as a great golf course architect, there is one characteristic of this course that stands out and that's the bunkering. With jagged edges and knowing that 17 of the 18 green complexes have bunkering our contenders will need to be good bunker players.
• The average winning score over the past five years is 15.8 under par.
• The average cut line over the last 5? +1.4 shots over par.
• Hey live bettors, 7 times in the last 10 years the 54 hole leader has won the tournament.
• Weather looks fine this week in San Antonio. Temperatures will be in the mid to high 80's, with a little wind on Friday and Saturday and no rain. Wind can play a factor on this course, but as of writing this I don't see it becoming a factor.

Yes Jordan and Rory are in the field, but they're gearing up for next week. Stay focused on the middle tier and watch for a great iron player with a hot putter to take down this title.

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"Where is Charley Hoffman?!?!?"

The Valero Texas Open has always had trouble developing an identity on the PGA Tour schedule. Outside of the calendar challenges, the tournament itself definitely fits a certain type of player. Here's what we're looking for down in San Antonio this week.

• Tough to hit greens in regulation at the Oaks Course. GIR average is 58% and the PGA Tour average is 66%. Great approach play is truly rewarded here and makes a big difference in selecting who will win.
• Speaking of approach, about 25% of your shots will come from 75-125 yards from the hole. Tour average for that range is 18%, so an accurate wedge player can do some damage at the Valero.
• Another approach note I mentioned earlier in the preview. The Oaks Course has some very unique bunkering around these greens. There's a direct correlation between successful sand play and contending.
• Putting will play a key role this week. Of the skills needed to win in the last 5 years the winners were ranked 5th in putting and 13th in SG:P.
• Along those lines, from 20' and in on the putting green, players make more putts than the PGA tour average. If a guy is a good putter, he has an advantage here.

When we think of Gary Woodland, we think of a power player. A US Open winner who bombs it off the tee and tries to overpower golf courses. The reality is, Gary's really good when he's close to the green. He's a Top 20 putter in this field and solid around the green and in the bunkers. In his last 5 tournaments he's gained 4.5 shots against the field. That zone of 75-125 yards on approach is his best area hitting over 90% of his greens in that range. Gary has more win equity than most in this field and I believe that will make a difference as well. He's been close lately, this week he meets the model and contends.

Adam Hadwin is a great bunker player. He's really just incredibly well-rounded as he's ranked 9th in the field SG:T2G. He gained 9 shots on the field at the Valspar and 8 at the PLAYERS! He's not one of the popular names, but by betting him you know he'll contend most weeks. In his last 5 tournaments, he's gained over 7 shots on the field in our approach range (75-125). That's why he's ranked 10th in the field SG:Approach. When you really think about it, I can't think of a reason why he wouldn't make a run at the Valero title this week.

We know we need a great approach player this week to win. What if they were a great driver of the golf ball as well? Throw in a Top 15 short game guy and you'd probably be thinking I saved Rory for my last pick. Chris Kirk has 2 Top 10 finishes at the Valero in his last 3 trips. Top 25 in approach, 6th SG:T2G and great around the green. Bunker play checks out as well as he's Top 20 from the sand in the field. #1 in the field in proximity from 75-100 yards he will score on the Par 5's and the 5 shorter Par 4's. He's got 4 career wins so he knows how to get it done when he's in contention. At 30-1 in this field he's a great outright winner.

Outright Winners - Valero Texas Open

Gary Woodland (+3000)

Adam Hadwin (+3300)

Chris Kirk (+3000)

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One last run for the pond.

Great ball strikers tend to shine at the Dinah Shore. Starting with Amy in 1983 and all the way to last year's winner Patty Tavatanakit, they can really control their golf ball. In handicapping this week's event, I'm looking closely at the players who have the talent and recently showed expectational form at this venue.

Jin Young Ko is playing, and I'm taking her again. She hasn't shot a round over par since last July. She has 6 wins in her last 11 events and last week finished 4th. She has won this event before and last year finished in the Top 10.

The best player who hasn't won in 2022 is Brooke Henderson. She's finished 2-6-11-6-4 in her five starts this season. She's ranked 3rd in Strokes Gained:Tee to Green and Putts per GIR. She has the power to play this golf course like Patty did last year and in the last 5 years she has finished in the Top 20 four times. I like Brooke to breakthrough on a big stage this week if Jin Young doesn't run away with it.

Five times in the last five years, Minjee Lee has finished in the Top 25 at the Chevron Championship. She's ranked 1st in the field in Strokes Gained:Approach and SG:T2G. That's some serious ball striking. Seven of her twelve tournament rounds this season have been in the 60's and she's 3rd on tour in hitting greens. She's accurate, powerful and can score. Did I mention she's never finished out of the Top 25 in the Chevron?

Charley Hull is a really strong player. She's long off the tee. At Mission Hills that has always been an advantage. Think Patty, Lexi, etc. Hull is unique though. She is ranked 10th is SG:T2G and 9th in SG:Putting. That combination and her 2022 form is somebody I'm really excited about picking. Four of the last five years she's finished in the Top 15 at this major. At 25-1 she's not a longshot and should be treated as such on our betting card.

Outright Winners - Chevron Championship

Jin Young Ko (+475)

Brooke Henderson (+1200)

Minjee Lee (+2500)

Charley Hull (+2500)

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Back-to-Back Major Weeks. Let's win some serious cash.

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