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Was Luke on your List? He was on ours!

Yes, ladies and gentlemen, you Read it here. Luke List won the Farmers Insurance Open at 90-1. Our second outright win of the month made everyone's week a profitable one. So with that epic tap-in birdie List made in the playoff, let's ride our amazing momentum into this week's events. The first takes place up the coast of California at the Pebble Beach Resort. One of the most historic homes of golf, the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am is a unique three-course event.

Similar to The American Express two weeks ago, each PGA Tour player will be paired with an amateur and play one round on each: Monterrey Peninsula GC, Spyglass Hill GC and Pebble Beach GL. At the completion of those three rounds on Saturday, the low 60 and ties will make it to Sunday for a shootout on the iconic Pebble Beach. Now let's get into this...

• 10 players in the Top 50 Official World Golf Rankings are in the tournament. Why so few? Well because 20 of Top 50 are overseas playing in the Saudi Invitational!
• Listen to this... over the last six years (2016-2021) the average odds of the winner on the even years were 320/1. On the odd years, 17/1. It's 2022, so plan accordingly.
• Pebble Beach has the shortest average driving distance on tour. This is because the design angles of the golf courses reward position over distance.
• Weather looks dry and cool this week. Days start in the 40's and extend to the mid-60's with little wind and no rain in the forecast. Week 5 in a row of great weather on the PGA Tour.

Our week predicting the LPGA was almost as good as the PGA Tour. All three of our outrights finished in the Top 30 and Yuka Saso (3rd) and Brooke Henderson (6th) were both within one shot of the lead on Sunday. This week they close out a three week run in Florida at the LPGA Drive On Championship. Played for the first time at the Crown Colony Golf & Country Club in Ft. Myers, Florida.

• The weather is finally favorable for the ladies. Temperatures in Fort Myers, Florida are expected to reach 80 each of the three days with no rain and little wind.
• Yes 3 days!!!! This is very important, the Drive-On is only 54-holes.
• The Crown Colony Golf and Country Club is a brand new venue for the LPGA Ladies. Course history doesn't apply.
  • 14 of the 18 holes have a penalty area, aka WATER.
  • 4 Par 4's over 400, and 6 under 400 which will lead to great scoring. Better be able to make birdies.
  • Par 3's are stout: 185, 174, 193, 180.

With a week off from football, we can all focus on the golf. It's a tale of two tournaments this week, one with tons of course history and the other with none. A Pro-Am for the men and probable shoot-out for the women. I love these weeks with great variety between the two. It really drives the compelling stories and increases our chances to win.

Celebrity Guest Picker!

The mission of our Celebrity Guest Picker selection is to provide you with unparalleled insights on the weekly competitions. This week we have professional golfer Noah Norton. A recent graduate of Georgia Tech, this amazing amateur played Pebble Beach in TWO USGA Championships...

• 2018 US Amateur
• 2019 US Open

Did I mention he's also from northern California? Well, take ten minutes and listen to his take on the course and field this week at the AT&T. Research really matters, and at RTL we find the best resources to elevate your winning reputation. To watch the interview on YouTube, click here.

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This week will take a certain approach...

Nelly Korda is coming this week. The former #1 player in the world (yes she lost it this week) is the best golfer in this field. With actual Florida weather predicted for Ft. Myers, she will be in contention. Playing a new course favors the best players. Part of being great stems from an ability to transfer their tremendous skill to any template. Nelly finished 4th and 20th in the first two tournaments. She's better than that. The Drive-On will be a three-day shootout. When it comes to going low, I'm going to take the lowest ranked player.

The LPGA is about to take a 3-week sabbatical before they head to Asia for two weeks in early March. With that in mind and looking at the birdiefest this week will become, I'm taking two middle tier outrights. We want to win and with the 54-hole format, there will be less opportunities on the board from a matchup and prop perspective. Yuka Saso made a run for us last week and she's going to contend again. She's 2nd in total birdies, 3rd in scoring average and 4th in number of rounds in the 60's. Simply put, she can score and with a 6th and 3rd place finish on tour already this year, she's proven it.

Another scoring machine is Celine Boutier. Also 4th is rounds in the 60's, she makes plenty of birdies (ranked 4th) and is 1st in greens in regulation (GIR). Hello tough Par 3's at Crown Colony. You have to hit greens to make birdies and Celine hits the green 78.5% of the time! Want another 4? Boutier has finished 4th in both events so far this year. More Let's go back to the last time she played in the Fort Myers area. Celine finished 3rd at the CME Tour Championship against the best field of the year last November. I just love her chances to contend this week.

I couldn't ignore Georgia Hall. Her odds don't reflect her form and therefore represents one of those awesome betting opportunities. At 40-1 she's playing the best of those outside the upper echelon. Georgia's finished 12th and 11th so far in terrible conditions. Consistently long and straight she gives herself plenty of birdie opportunities. It's been established readers, you will need to score this week in order to win. On tour, she converts those birdies as Georgia's ranked 7th in holes under par and 6th in putting per GIR. Give her favorable scoring conditions and she may be our best bet of the week.

Outright Winners - LPGA Drive On

Nelly Korda (+700)

Yuka Saso (+1600)

Celine Boutier (+1600)

Georgia Hall (+4000)

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The best value at the top of the board this week is Jason Day. He has placed 11th or better the last 7 years at the AT&T! He has 8 Top 10's in the 12 times he has played and never missed a cut. His stroke average is 69.15. That's the lowest of anyone who has played this event more than three times. Fresh off a tremendous week at Torrey (T3), J-Day is perfectly positioned for his first win in Monterrey. Last week highlighted his awesome ability on approach and around the green. Put him in position to make some putts and we quickly realize why he was once the #1 player in the world.

When you consider the long Pro-Am rounds, three unique courses and interesting weather that always seems to invade, you must consider past success as a major indicator toward 2022 results. Kevin Streelman has finished in the Top 15 the last 6 times he has played at the AT&T with a runner-up finish in 2020. His game just fits the layout. Kevin is #1 in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, #1 in SG: Approach and #4 overall against the field statistically at the event. I guess that's why he's made ten out of the last eleven cuts.

One of the most important keys to success at the AT&T are approach shots from 100-125 yards. In fact, this tournament has double the number shots in this category over the tour average! Matt Kuchar's proximity to the hole in that yardage window is inside 16 feet. That puts him in the Top 20 on tour. As we learned last week with Luke List, players with longer odds need a great fit and then get hot with another area of their game. For Luke it was the putter. If Matt Kuchar can keep the ball in play and use his amazing wedge game, then we are well on our way to a repeat winning week.

Outright Winners - AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

Jason Day (+2000)

Kevin Streelman (+5000)

Matt Kuchar (+6600)

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DFS 6, for six figures!

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

• Jason Day (9,900) - 7-4-4-2-5 That's his last 5 finishes at the AT&T.
• Justin Rose (9,600) - This former #1 has the radar locked on from 150 yards and in. Perfect for Pebble.
• Matt Jones (8,000) - Career earnings at Pebble? 1+mil. 3rd best spot on tour for him, the other 2 he won at.
• Matt Kuchar (7,600) - 6 events this season already all Top 40 finishes.
• Chez Reavie (7,400) - He loves Pebble and can see why - 3 Top 25's and 3rd at the 2019 US Open!
• Matt NeSmith (7,300) - 69.88 scoring average and two Top 16 finishes in two starts at the AT&T.

LPGA Drive On Championship

• No DFS contests on Draft Kings at the time of publishing. If they do create one, I will Tweet my 6.

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One & Done

Jason Day - He's healthy and ready to win. Based upon event history and player fit there's no better pick.

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"Prop-talk"

Thankfully, this is our last multiple course mess for the FedEx Cup season. Between the course rotation and Pro-Am element, I lean much more toward props than matchups. Especially live betting. As for the ladies, it's three days of golf Thursday through Saturday. Unfortunately, if that doesn't grab much attention from the betting operators; action is limited...

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

• Top 10: Jason Day (+215), Justin Rose (+240)
• Top 20: Day (+100), Rose (+100), Kevin Streelman (+180), Matt Kuchar (+200)
• Top 40: Matt Jones (+110), Russell Knox (+130), Matt NeSmith (+140)
• Low South African: Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+140)
• Low American: Patrick Cantlay (+500)
• Tournament Matchups:
  • Matt Kuchar over Denny McCarthy
  • Mav McNealey over Mito Pereira

LPGA Drive On Championship

• Tournament Matchups
  • Jessica Korda over Patty Tavatanakit
  • Nelly Korda over Danielle Kang
  • Georgia Hall over Leona Maguire
  • Brooke Henderson over Lexi Thompson

Remember to always follow Read The Line (@readtheline_) on Twitter for "LIVE" matchup plays and props throughout the tournament.

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Keith's Corner - Better use of Time

As we all watched the close of the Farmers Insurance Open, we immediately think about the "time" that Luke List had to fill. We've all been in situations where we have waited for a playoff or a weather delay. What impressed me most about Saturday was how well Luke stayed in the moment. In response to his victory (and ours), I decided to cover those moments for PGA.com.

The "Drive-On" to Survive

A couple weeks ago, all we heard was clamoring about the wait to see the PGA Tour/Netflix collaboration until the fall. Forget about that, our friends at the LPGA have quickly given us the solution. On Monday, January 31st they debuted their own "golfumentary," a three-part series playing this week on YouTube. Hit the link below...

Speaking of collaborations, the sneaker industry is setting the standard for the sports business world. (h/t) to Joe Pompliano's newsletter Huddle Up. He found a great resource for understanding the shoe phenomenon. If you're looking to takeover markets, or understand the history and evolution, or just figure out why there are so many pairs of shoes in your kid's closet, then read this.

That's 2 outright wins in four weeks.

These gambling operators have tons of cash, tell your friends to subscribe and let's take it all!

Thank you for being a member of Read The Line.

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