Florida finale

Outside of an RTL outright winner, I couldn't be happier for Cameron Young and his family. David is a legendary PGA Professional from the New York City area, and all of us have been following Cameron's career for some time. Local junior legend, then Wake Forest, and now a PLAYERS Champion. Another close call for our card with Xander, Saturday's 74 was the day that undid him. That Sunday leaderboard was packed with major champions and proven winners. Cam's ability to close those last two holes in style will be one of the celebrated iconic finishes of that event for a long time. I know the Masters is on everyone's mind, but the PGA at Aronomink is a very similar style course to the one Young grew up on at Sleepy Hollow. If you are into futures, that one would be on my radar.

The forgotten fourth Florida event suddenly has new life. Ten of the top 25 players in the OWGR are in Palm Harbor, Florida, for the Valspar Championship. A field of 135 players (thank you, Brooks) will compete for $9.1 million. The top 65 and ties play the weekend for a first-place check of $1.64 million. Cognizant would have sold off half the Bear Trap for five of those guys. It is really interesting how the schedule has evolved over recent years. Outside of the signature events, players are planning around the majors up to a month in advance. For many of these favorites, this is the last time we will see them before Magnolia Lane. Since schedules are a popular subject these days, once the system gets completely revamped, it will be interesting to see how the fields develop again.

Valspar Championship starts in...

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Resort golf?

The Innisbrook Resort is home to 63 holes of "resort golf." Somehow, the Copperhead Course did not get the memo on that design. The average winning score for the Valspar over the past decade is 12 under par. Vegas set the final score over under at 12.5 under par. Keeping the PGA TOUR short of 15 under par is a major-like task. If you love to watch difficult golf on television, this is your week. A par 71 scorecard stretching 7,352 yards. Now that total sounds short by TOUR standards, but it pays to look at the card closely. The Copperhead Course has five par 3s. The average length of those one-shot holes is 212 yards, but that's still half the length of an average par 4. The Valspar causes these guys to hit some lengthy approach shots! Over 20% of the iron shots fall in the 175 to 200 yard bucket. The average green size is 5,822 sq/ft, and for the second week in a row, they are covered in a Poa Trivialis overseed. The agronomy looks perfect across the course as February has been a consistent growing month in the Tampa Bay region.

The course features 74 bunkers, all of which have new sand. That may not sound like much, but when sand is added to bunkers, it tends to react differently than sand that has settled and been in place for years. Compacted sand is far easier to play from and get consistent shot results. Based upon that little note, sand will play a role this week in determining the outcome. That’s just how the Golf Gods roll. Don't go favoring sand play at 50% in your model, but it will take time for the guys to adjust, and those with better command of their bunker play will have a small edge. Nine holes have water in play, and the fairways are 20 yards wide (on average). Those fairways are a priority for the field. The field driving accuracy in 2025 on the Copperhead Course was 55%. Below the TOUR average, many players will lay up off the tee just to favor finding the short grass. Oddly enough, if that 7,352 yardage number sounds familiar, it is the same yardage as the official scorecard for the Stadium Course last week.

The recent past champions share a couple of common threads. One of those is long(er) odds. In the last 10 years, only one winner had pre-tournament odds under +2500 (25-1), and that was Jordan Spieth in 2015. Although this tourney does attract some names, a few will go home before the weekend. The average cutline is +1.6 since Spieth won. Be careful at the top of the betting board. Another interesting fact about this course is the par 5 difficulty. The four 5s average a 32% birdie or better rate. In comparison, both Bay Hill and TPC Sawgrass share a 38% birdie rate across the 5s. Tough par 3s, stronger than average par 5s, new sand, windier than what the weather app says, and great growing conditions. Get ready for a bunch of paint by high numbers on the scoreboard.

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How to win?

It has been an incredible Florida swing, further proving it ain't over until it's over. With plenty of recent form and course history to mull over, let's get into this.

• Each of the five previous winners has gained five or more strokes on the field with their flatstick. The Copperhead Course is a venue where good putters will make putts. Outside of five feet, PGA TOUR players make more putts than the TOUR average. Strokes gained on the green(s) are from a ton of bonus putting. That stat measures a player's ability to make putts inside five feet and outside of 20 feet. One of the keys to winning most weeks, it is a common thread across the most recent winners. Sam Burns, Taylor Moore, and Peter Malnati (!) of all people have won the Valspar by painting the putting surfaces with birdies. The greens aren't large, and they are relatively flat. Pick players that can putt this week on Poa Trivialis.
• Now let's talk iron play. Jumping all over Jacob Bridgeman makes perfect sense here. RTL grabbed Bridgeman last year as one of the outright picks at +6600, and he finished third. Why the fit two years in a row? Bridgeman is an excellent mid-iron player (and putter!). Players who can hit it close from 175 to 200+ yards are the key. Nearly half the approach shots will be played in that range. Over the last decade, these leaderboards have been relatively redundant because if you can excel with your mid-irons, you can make the cut and contend.
• Much of the off the tee talk is not about the driver. Players will lay up to a specific yardage in that mid-iron approach zone, as many of the fairways pinch around 280 or 290 yards off the tee. Fit a driving club into that landing area, and you have another repeatable skill that pays dividends at Innisbrook. You start to see the repetition of this track and why the same golfers contend here year after year. Valspar is not about being a good driver of the golf ball. The driver implies swinging hard and accepting a wide range of results. Innisbrook is all about hitting specific landing areas off the tee. Similar to those five par 3s, find your target approximately 285 yards down the fairway consistently, and you give yourself the ability to score.
• Healthy rough, and small putting surfaces present a short game challenge. A key par save or your ability to adapt to the new sand quicker than your competitors is what I'm looking for in around the green ability. This is the fourth of the primary strokes gained categories we need to focus on, but unlike many other weeks, it holds value. If the winner rarely goes below 15 under par, bogey avoidance and scrambling are a real concern. Maintain a healthy birdie-to-bogey ratio if the Copperhead trophy is your goal.
• With five par 3s, scoring on those holes is important. In a 72-hole stroke play tournament, that makes up 28% of your final score. The best par 3 players will find themselves in contention based on that one simple skill. Play the 3s under par for the week, and I like your chances.
• It's amazing how much a great comp course(s) can help build a profitable card. Sedgefield, Colonial, Southwind, Harbour Town, and even 3M can be used to measure a player's potential to perform well in Tampa. Our guys have had success at many of those venues.

After a brutal week, both physically and mentally, I'm looking to a couple of guys who played very well last week, but were outside the small group of final hole contenders. It's tough to bounce back quickly from the Stadium Course. When you read these names, you'll know what I mean. Looking at the regular season events in 2026 to date on TOUR, this one might be the best. Elite shot making against a great course in impeccable condition. What more could we, and Brian Rolapp, ask for?

Outright Winners - Valspar Championship

LPGA

Changing cups

A mere 77 days into the calendar year, and the LPGA is hosting its first full-field event of the 2026 season. Nothing like having Taylor Swift on the tee box, Nelly Korda, play three tournament rounds to date in 2026. Following a travel week, the ladies are back from a three-event tour in Southeast Asia. A field of 144 players, including 26 women in the 28-player '26 rookie class are set to compete in the Fortinet Founders Cup. The genesis of this event is one of my favorites on the LPGA tour. Started in 2011, the tournament is meant to honor the 13 founding members of the LPGA who started the tour in 1950. What should be a tentpole tournament has been moved around over the years. From Arizona to New Jersey, then Florida, and now California, we might get to 13 states pretty soon! Twenty of the top 25 players in the Rolex World Rankings are competing for a $3 million purse. The top 65 and ties will play the weekend for a first-place check of $450,000. The equivalent of approximately twelfth place at THE PLAYERS on Sunday.

Cardinal course

A news state takes us to a new venue. The Sharon Heights Golf and Country Club is located in Menlo Park, California. If that name sounds somewhat familiar, the town is located a little west of Stanford University. We are out on the West Coast in the Oakland/San Francisco area. A wonderful setting for tournament golf, I am very impressed by this 1963 Jack Fleming design. Thirty-one acres of fairway grass lead you to 18 green complexes with average-sized putting surfaces of 5,000 sq/ft. Covered in Bentgrass, these greens will roll perfectly. You might want to start thinking about some LPGA putters... The terrain around Sharon Heights provides a large part of the golf test. I'm not sure the property has a level lie, and with two holes where water comes into play and 73 bunkers, these women will have their hands full on this parkland design.

In 2024, the golf course went under the knife, and a complete renovation of the layout was completed. A classic par 72 scorecard, all 18-holes measure 6,542 yards. It will play longer as many of the holes move uphill. I know we had a 36-hole cut at the Blue Bay LPGA, but that field had 108 players, and approximately 40 of them were not LPGA players. In my mind, the tour begins this week. Just three events before the Chevron Championship, the season's first major championship, many of these women have not played more than one or two events in 2026. If this event has any identity, it must be the venues. Sharon Heights fits the Founders mold. What does that mean? The Founders Cup has moved from one classic design to another. Both Mountain Ridge and Upper Montclair Country Club in New Jersey were traditional tests. Bradenton Country Club in 2025 was also a classic course down in Florida. All parkland layouts reward accuracy with a high frequency of scoring chances. Studying Sharon Heights, I see a clear path to victory, and it starts with understanding how to flight your golf ball.

How to win?

Many of the targets at Sharon Heights G & CC are going to be above and below your feet. Speaking of below your feet, watch that lie! Built in the Palo Alto foothills, the setting for golf is sensational. The first step in handicapping a new venue on the LPGA schedule is to find relevant comp venues. Forget analytics, the LPGA website couldn't land the Millennium Falcon on the Death Star under the guidance of a tractor beam. Since 2022, the tour has visited several West Coast venues that share a number of similar design features. These six comp courses are the first step in figuring out our winner. Looking at those leaderboards, we can develop a list of names. What we will see are the traits players used to contend and win. Those skill packages will apply to Sharon Heights. Matching agronomy, tons of terrain changes, short game similarities, and regional weather all play a part in solving this week's puzzle.

With our comp course list, our inventory of names needs to be whittled down. Anytime the ground is uneven, take the best approach players. Not just because every lie requires a solid strike, but equally for getting the ball to land and stop when you are attacking uphill and downhill targets. Trajectory control is so important! Fifty percent of the approaches are under 125 yards, and 50% are from 125-175 yards. The ladies will use every iron in their bag. Just as the Founders would have wanted it, Sharon Heights is a great approach examination. Considering the green sites are 5,000 sq/ft (on average), the women are going to miss a few. Rugged terrain leads to a myriad of possibilities when it comes to short game scoring shots. Whether you are attacking the four par 5s or saving par, I have placed an above-average weight on strokes gained around the green. Saticoy, Palos Verdes, and El Caballero have all revealed the blueprint out in California.

All of those venues came down to great approach play and scrambling. The unseasonably warm weather has just shown up this week. Leading into the event, the grounds team has been working with wonderful growing conditions. The course is in exceptional shape, and one place where the heat may help the ladies is green speed. Officials cannot fire these greens up with a ton of speed and expect to keep them healthy. Chances are, the surfaces are in complete shock by the weekend. Factor in the plant safety and heavy amount of undulation each putting surface has, the greens will be moderately fast. This is good news, because that will help good putters separate from the field for two reasons. First, all but a couple of players are going to be rookies going in. Good putters are better green readers. Forget the Stanford players who are familiar with Sharon Heights; the rest of the competitors will be learning these surfaces for the first time. With moderation in green speed, they will not only read them, but convert birdies chances as well.

Parkland layouts always require accurate driving. Of the distance accuracy argument, that's the side I'm leaning toward for the Fortinet. On average, LPGA players are far more accurate off the tee than their male counterparts. There are different levels of accuracy. Total drivers of the golf ball can add distance and still maintain some connection to finding the short grass. Players will need a good game plan for this venue. There's only one set of back-to back holes where the fairway bends in the same direction. Holes five and six both move right to left. The rest of your driver holes change fairway movement after every tee shot. With a very limited number of consistent OTT shot shapes, accomplished drivers can grab an edge against this field. The final nine tee shots hold two straight fairways, five that meander left to right, and two that swerve right to left! That's a great test of off the tee skill. Did I mention that they move uphill and downhill too?

I'm throwing strokes gained scoring into a pool with scoring average, par 4 scoring, and birdie to bogey ratio. What I mean is each of these elements carries approximately the same weight in my RTL proprietary LPGA model. Those who have seen my handwritten charts know that line was kind of a joke. Years of data, leaderboards, and current form all factor in. While most pundits are guessing, we have information that others simply do not. I love our edge on weeks like this. With one LPGA win under our belt in four 2026 events, let's continue our hot start and grab another in the first real event of the LPGA season!

Outright Winners - Fortinet Founders Cup

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