Last chance to dance

PALM BEACH GARDENS, FL - We start with a battle for the number one playoff seed. Match 13 features the undefeated Bay Golf Club against Los Angeles Golf Club. Who knew California would become the capital state of "sim golf?" The Monday double-header closes with the New York Golf Club versus Boston Common Golf in Match 14. These two teams are battling for the final spot in a four-team playoff bracket. Tuesday night we close the regular season with the Jupiter Links Golf Club against the Atlanta Drive Golf Club for Match 15. Similar to last week, ADGC has a scheduling issue with two players (...API?) and has signed 2024 PGA TOUR Rookie of the Year Nick Dunlap to a one-day contract.

I know this sounds like a preview for the final week of NFL action, but after seven weeks of TGL coverage, I believe a majority of these guys actually do care about winning. As such, the playoffs should provide some incredible entertainment much like the Presidents Day triple-header. Since I'm preaching playoff scenarios, here's the full breakdown for the first seed and that coveted final spot.

• Winner of the match between The Bay Golf Club and Los Angeles Golf Club will secure the first seed.
• New York Golf Club clinches with:
  • Win vs BOS OR
  • OTL (Overtime loss) vs BOS and JUP loss vs ATL OR
  • Loss vs BOS and JUP loss or an OTL vs ATL and more holes won than BOS and JUP
• Jupiter Links Golf Club clinches with:
  • Win vs ATL and NY loss vs BOS OR
  • OTL vs ATL and NY loss vs BOS and more holes won than NY
• Boston Common Golf clinches with:
  • Win vs NY and JUP loss vs ATL and more holes won than NY OR
  • Win vs NY and JUP OTL loss to ATL and more holes won than NY and JUP

The format, course, and starting lineups

The TGL format remains the same as our first 12 matches. We've covered the updated HAMMER rules as well for several weeks. If you have any questions concerning the league of the format of play, the ​TGL website​ is a tremendous resource from top to bottom.​​​​

Bullet points are my friend for these season ending TGL previews. Here's how we are starting each of the matches.

• Min Woo Lee leads off Match 13 for the The Bay Golf Club and will be followed by Tommy Fleetwood from the Los Angeles Golf Club.
• Cameron Young leads off Match 14 for the New York Golf Club and will be followed by Rory McIlroy from Boston Common Golf.
• Billy Horschel leads off Match 15 for the Atlanta Drive Golf Club and will be followed by Tom Kim from the Jupiter Links Golf Club.

TGL will take a break for THE PLAYERS Championship following these week eight matches. The top four teams will compete in the semifinals on March 17 and 18. The two victorious teams from those matches will then play a best out of three finals series for the SoFi Cup. Those two or three matches will take place the following week on March 24 and 25.

Keith's "TGL" Keys 🗞️ A couple of key insights you can claim as your own idea at the water cooler and cocktail party conversations. Ball striking: The Bay Golf Club leads the TGL in driving accuracy (80%) and GIR percentage (75%). There's no substitute in this league for fairways and greens. Scrambling: Short game remains the secret sauce for TGL success. Min Woo Lee chipped in twice last week against Jupiter Links. The Bay GC is also ranked first in scrambling percentage (71.4%). HAMMER time: The three best HAMMER teams are also the three teams that have already qualified for the playoffs. Learn when to turn the match by throwing the HAMMER and you win.

Match 13 presents us with another par 60 scorecard measuring 5,724 yards. The classic par 5 turn (holes 9 and 10 are 5s), a closing On the Rocks wedge shot and then a par 5 to finish. All five par 4s are under 450 yards, three of the five are under 400 yards! Each of the par 3s are under 190 yards in length. This layout certainly helps a Morikawa-Fleetwood led LAGC. The Bay brings the heat off the tee and with so many short holes it definitely limits their advantage. If it comes down to the final hole, Pick your Plunder has seen the most penalties this season with six. Players also hit that fairway 38% of the time. Should Clark and Theegala get to that one with the match on the line... buckle up.

The second tilt of our Monday double-header will be utilizing another par 60 layout following the standard TGL order. For Match 14, we see a par 3, a 4, and a 5 every three holes. Wait, you haven't noticed that? Since Match 1, TGL has always played one of each par every three holes. The course creators also love two par 5s at the turn between nine and ten and closing with a par 5. This course checks all of those boxes. A little longer than the earlier match, this 15-hole layout measures 5,839 yards. One unique to watch for as the match unfolds involves The Claw (Hole 1) and Bonnie Link (Hole 4). Players have hit each of these fairways 100% of the time. Reaching the green, not as lucky. Competitors have only hit The Claw 50% of the time, and Bonnie Link 21.4% of the time! Sounds like the start of this evening’s contest will be entertaining.

Our final regular season match (Match 15) features the same course as Match 13. The par 3s are all under 190 yards, the par 4s aren't a tough test and of course the par 5s are all reachable. I would have liked to see a little more originality, but the scorecard is what it is. There's a bunch of suggestions we all have to improve TGL. I agree with the critics who wanted to see more originality in the hole design; especially if we are going to play 150-yard par 3s. We love the lava and can't wait to see more of it. The team created 30 holes for season one. I'd love to see them bank these and create 30 more wild ones. Mix those together over 12 holes and complete these made for TV matches in under 90 minutes.

We have another one-day contract, Atlanta Drive has signed Nick Dunlap. The PGA TOUR Rookie of the Year is in a great spot. The ADGC is a strong squad to join, and they are playing the worst team. There's little doubt the TGL will expand in 2026, so getting inside the SoFi Arena early can only help build your brand for the future. I just wonder how an Alabama boy will fit in across the border in Georgia..? Ludvig Åberg sits again as he (and it looks like a couple others) prepares for API up in Orlando. Tiger Woods did not join the field where he has won EIGHT times. Instead, he's back with his teammates trying to earn a TGL playoff spot. Let's hope Mr. Woods takes advantage of the week off from arena golf next week and enters THE PLAYERS.

• Match 13
  • Los Angeles Golf Club (-120) - Tommy Fleetwood, Collin Morikawa, Sahith Theegala (Justin Rose)
  • The Bay Golf Club (-120) - Min Woo Lee, Shane Lowry, Wyndham Clark (Ludvig Åberg)
• Match 14
  • Boston Common Golf (+100) - Rory McIlroy, Keegan Bradley, Adam Scott (Hideki Matsuyama)
  • New York Golf Club (-138) - Cameron Young, Rickie Fowler, Xander Schauffele (Matt Fitzpatrick)
• Match 15
  • Jupiter Links Golf Club (+120) - Tom Kim, Tiger Woods, Max Homa (Kevin Kisner)
  • Atlanta Drive Golf Club (-163) - Billy Horschel, Lucas Glover, Nick Dunlap (Justin Thomas, Patrick Cantlay)

Seven of the 12 players competing are also playing in the famous Seminole Pro-Member on Monday as well. Collin Morikawa and Shane Lowry from the early match and the entire Boston Common team along with Rickie Fowler and Cam Young from NYGC.

We have seven different iterations to determine the final playoff spot. The TGL pundits have their hands full figuring all of this out. As for RTL, we'll take it one match at a time. The smallest audience will probably see Match 13, but that's going to be the best one. The Bay GC and LAGC could meet again in the coming weeks for the SoFi Cup. Nobody wants to step in front of that Atlanta HAMMER wagon! Winning that week eight opening match for the #1 seed really matters.

Match breakdown(s)

Match 13

Can The Bay GC take down a real team without Ludvig Åberg? I know they beat Jupiter Links GC without the Genesis Invitational champion, but LA's lineup is a little different. Only one team has won a hole three times in their previous four matches and that is LAGC. In fact, they haven't done it just once, they have done it on three different holes. Los Angeles owns Set in Stone (Hole 5), Alpine, and On the Rocks (Hole 14). Two of them will be contested in this match. Los Angeles has won the most holes in the regular season to date with 23. How many did The Bay GC win, 22. Will LAGC's winning ways continue? I don't think so…

The Bay Golf Club is ranked first in driving accuracy (80%), average driving distance (318.8), greens in regulation (75%), short putt efficiency (83%), AND scrambling (71.4%). They are undefeated and both Clark and Lee have the perfect skill set for simulator golf. They bomb it off the tee and can score in the “greenzone.” I believe TBGC continues their stellar play and captures the first seed in the SoFi Cup playoffs.

Here are my Singles leans for this heavyweight TGL battle.

• Fleetwood versus Lee: Speed versus precision, that should be the title of this middleweight bout. Lee has a considerable advantage on Serpent (Hole 10). The reachable par 5 plays right into Min Woo's ball speed. Take The Bay GC on the first H2H hole. Later, The Claw presents a pretty average challenge for these two. Each is seven for seven in hitting fairways, so a short par 4 gets halved with pars.
• Morikawa versus Lowry: Handicapping these two is extremely difficult. First, they play a medium sized par 4. Both Collin and Shane are great at hitting fairways and greens. No edge there and then a very short par 3 (On the Rocks)? Lowry will be sharp after a week at PGA National and stuff this one in tight and take the second Singles hole these two play.
• Theegala versus Clark: Wyndham Clark over Sahith Theegala is one reason why I like TBGC overall. Clark's confidence in the SoFi Center rivals that of Tom Kim in a Presidents Cup; it's palpable. Clark is undefeated in Singles play (5-0-3) and the only player with five Singles wins. Conversely, Theegala is 2-1-3 in his H2H matches. Fallen Pine (Hole 12) is perfectly set up for a par halve between these two. Pick your Plunder is appropriately named. No hole has awarded more penalty strokes. Theegala's recent roller coaster of ball striking costs him on the final hole with a loss to the confident Clark.

Match 14

Why doesn't Boston Common Golf win? One of our two preseason favorites (LAGC the other), the four Ballfrogs have yet to win a match. New York GC looks better and better each week. Blown out in Match 1, the boys from the five boroughs are trending and about to get their best player back. A rib injury has sidelined Xander Scahuffele most of the season, but he returns on Monday! Dropping Matt Fitzpatrick (who has admitted he is struggling) for the two-time 2024 major champ Schauffele is an upgrade. Meanwhile, Boston brings back Adam Scott for a bunkered Hideki Matsuyama. Replacing the fifth ranked player in the world with a forty-something year old Scott is not quite the "back against the wall" lineup I was looking for from BCG.

Both teams can bomb it off the tee. Even their driving accuracy at that ball speed is very good. Both teams also hit about the same amount of GIRs. Boston Common's inability to win holes comes down to two things. The Ballfrogs do not score from close range. Rory and his teammates are last in scrambling (26.3%) and last in short putt percentage. BCG is 11 for 19 converting putts under 10'. NYGC is ranked second in scrambling (60%) and first in average distance of putts made. The second Boston scoring issue is the HAMMER. BCG has a 3-5 HAMMER record. All three playoff teams have a positive differential. To win this match, they must show better HAMMER savvy.

To get in the playoffs, Boston must not only win, but they have to pass NYGC in overall holes won; they are four behind. Aggressive play by the Ballfrogs ultimately leaves New York in the driver seat to win and capitalize on a number of these Singles matchups.

• McIlroy versus Young: Two weeks ago, Cameron Young faced Tiger Woods in Singles. Now the Bronx Bomber faces off against Rory McIlroy. Cam and Rory will not have any trouble covering the pinch on Spear, and both will hit an iron into this par 5 green. Neither will get close, and they both halve with birdies. Alpine (Hole 13) is the 535-yard par 4 with a tremendous speed slot off the tee. Young will outdrive Rory and set the new TGL long drive record breaking 360+ yards. Unfortunately, his iron game has been way off, and he loses the hole when Rory knocks it on and makes a solid par.
• Bradley versus Fowler: I see this as the key matchup for both teams. Bradley is 4-1-3 in Singles play. Fowler played extremely well at the Cognizant and has struck the ball really well in the SoFi Center all season. Loot on the Line is an accuracy contest. Fowler's practice at PGA National all week has him better prepared for this test and he grabs the first hole from Bradley. Bradley holds the proximity record on their second H2H hole Cliffhanger at 2'2". He won't hit it that close again, but both will hit the green from 150 yards and halve the hole.
• Scott versus Schauffele: Adam Scott has played two TGL matches this season, and Xander Schauffele has played one. Schauffele wouldn't be back if he wasn't ready for TGL and more importantly API up in Orlando. Since neither has a storied history, I'm taking talent over experience. Two great iron players, they halve a medium length par 3 in On the Rocks (Hole 12). Closing on Sterling (Hole 15), Scott's 1-1-2 Singles record shows up and Schauffele steals the last hole and all hopes of Boston making the playoffs.

Match 15

No team has thrown more HAMMERS than Jupiter Links Golf Club. That strategy has not worked as they have a HAMMER point differential of -4, the worst of any team in the league. Even with Justin Thomas and Patrick Cantlay in Orlando, Atlanta drives right past JLGC to the playoffs in two weeks. Homa, Woods, and Kisner all have too many weaknesses for this team to compete at a high level. What ADGC loses in experience by not having JT and Patrick in the lineup, they pick up speed and ball striking ability. To date, ADGC has 15 total holes won to Jupiter's 9; the lowest total in the league. Tom Kim can go overboard on the celebrations as he tries to carry this team once again, but ultimately the ADGC "wagon" barrels on.

Atlanta Drive is ranked second in team putting, and first in Singles points. They outdrive JLGC, hit more GIRs, and have a more successful scrambling percentage. Let's not overthink this one. If they were going to mail it in, these three wouldn't be the ones to do it. Horschel is all-in on TGL, Glover only played once, and this is a tryout for 2026 as far as Dunlap is concerned. In the end, we finish with six Singles holes. ADGC has 12 Singles points this season to Jupiter Links five. For the fifth match in a row, these H2Hs don't match up for JLGC.

• Kim versus Horschel: This could be the Singles match of the season. Billy Horschel is 4-1-1 and Kim is 2-0-4 having not lost a Singles hole. Hitting the fairway on Hole 10 (Serpent) has proven to be difficult with a 40% success rate this season. Both of these players are accurate, and they do. This defines their two holes as they both are among the league leaders in accuracy, scrambling, and putting. I don't see an obvious edge and will just watch these two holes and enjoy the theater they create.
• Woods versus Glover: Lucas Glover wants another crack at the SoFi Center "greenzone." Glover hit every fairway in his first appearance. The Plank (Hole 11) is perfectly suited to Lucas' skill set. A medium par 4 he hits the fairway and green making birdie; 1 up! Their second test is On the Rocks. The shortest par 3 at 135 yards, watch Glover drop a wedge next to the pin and take down Woods twice. It sounds like sacrilege, but Woods has only won one Singles point in six chances.
• Homa versus Dunlap: Max Homa is 0-2-2 in TGL Singles play. The game is still suffering, and Dunlap has been great on approach in 2025. Nick takes the par 3 Fallen Pine (Hole 12). Neither of these two can find the fairway, and Pick your Plunder has trouble awaiting every swing. Both probably drop at some point in this closing contest, and they halve the hole.

After a quick trip to the SoFi Center on Monday, RTL heads up to Orlando for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Join Matt Wiley (Run Pure Sports) and Keith at Bay Hill on Tuesday afternoon (3:00pm ET) as they break down the next signature event of the PGA TOUR season on the GOLF PRO BETTING SHOW.

No other show brings you betting coverage right from the venue, tune in to our live broadcast and ask questions!

Match 13, 14, 15 Cards

Match 13 LAGC vs. TBGC Match 13 winner: The Bay Golf Club (-120) Match 14 BCG vs. NYGC Match 14 winner: New York Golf Club (-138) Match 15 JLGC vs. ADGC Match 15 winner: Atlanta Drive Golf Club (-163) ​ Match 14 prop bet Match 15 two prop bets ​(member only content)​ ​ For more TGL bets, become a member of Read The Line. ​(Click this button!) ​ Betting markets have been slow to post for TGL, especially Fanduel. They generally come out after we publish, so compare before you bet as they may have a better line.

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