Show Me the Money.

When it comes to money grabs, this week is a good invite. Many have accused last Friday's debacle as a straight ATM run, but last place in paradise this week gets a solid six figures. Even with such a small field we do have some serious storylines.

• Collin Morikawa can move to #1 in the World Ranking this weekend. With December 31st as a deadline for many year end bonuses, don't be surprised if Mr. Morikawa isn't a little extra motivated this week.
• I've got something left to prove... Xander (2019) and Webb (2020) have not won in a while and starting to hear about it. Yes, Xander won a gold medal and Webb won twice in '20, but as you know we live in a world of what have you done for me lately!
• Welcome to the bag - Two recent high profile partnerships will be on display this week. JT and Bones (Jim MacKay) are still getting to know one another while Ted Scott just joined Scottie Scheffler. With such a small field, here's two new relationships to keep an eye on.
• Speaking of keeping an eye on someone, Patrick Reed is playing.
• You'll hear this again, but Justin Rose lives here and holds the course record (62 - 2015).

One more thing, Tiger is back and the host. The big cat's return truly is the one gift that keeps on giving.

Celebrity Guest Picker!

Mark Fulcher has a keen eye. The only caddie to ever be on the bag for a Men's and a Women's US Open winner. When Billy Horschel won the BMW Championship in September, "Fooch" was there as well. A veteran of the Hero World Challenge, his former boss Justin Rose lives at Albany.

In these couple minutes, we cover the highlight holes, course conditions, and outright winner conversations. Does Morikawa have the motivation to be #1, we'll find out as the week unfolds. Pay special attention to his second tier pick, it's a good one from a nearby observers perspective...

​Read The Line, the best insider knowledge combined with great entertainment.

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Who Fits Albany?

We have seen the Hero World Challenge contested at Albany five times. In those years, our winners share very little in common at first glance. With a little deeper look, the champion crew of Stenson, Rahm, Fowler, Matsuyama and Watson do possess one or two very close common denominators. Any multiple PGA Tour winner can be considered a strong ball striker. But these gentlemen have the respect of their peers when they are working with their best stuff. Combine their creative scoring style and sharp approach statistics, we're beginning to build a blueprint.

More than half the holes are Par 3's and 5's at Albany. Your winner will be very skilled at both, especially in those tight yardage ranges that define these holes. In 2021, Collin Morikawa was Top 3 in Par 3 scoring from 175-200 and Top 15 in Par 5 scoring from 550-600. That's a lethal combination for the field considering his form as of late.

Albany will test your patience. Your competitors will be making birdies and eagles in bunches. To keep pace you'll have to make your fair share as well. Webb Simpson was ranked in the Top 10 for Birdie or Better percentage in 2021 and this season. Throw in a Top 15 in the Par 3 and Top 10 in the Par 5 categories already mentioned under Collin and he might as well be your masked man from the bottom half of the field.

Speaking of the second ten, Justin Rose has played three events on the PGA Tour this fall. Finishing better in each event, his last competitive round was a 65 at Sea Island's Seaside course. Connect that to a 6th place finish at the BMW Championship in September and the fact he lives there gives RTL reason to believe he's worth a small bet on this limited field's long shot.

Outright Winners - Hero World Challenge

Homerun - Collin Morikawa (+750)

No Way Home - Webb Simpson (+2000)

Home Sweet Home - Justin Rose (+2800)

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DFS for Days... There's value on the board.

Hero World Challenge

• Rory McIlroy (10,800) - I know Morikawa's motivated, but 5 Par 5's! McIlroy will be a points machine.
• Viktor Hovland (9,900) - The guy wins in Mexico and Puerto Rico. Now he's in the Bahamas.
• Xander Schauffele (8,700) - Drives it great and makes 4.75 birdies per round. Simple recipe to 20 under par.
• Sam Burns (7,500) - Best value on the board. Look it up, you won't believe it.
• Webb Simpson (6,700) - Top 10 at Sea Island with a 66-66 weekend. Stats match too.
• Justin Rose (6,100) - Top 10 highest average fantasy points in this field. Did I mention he's at home..?

Given you "Limited" Props

Prop bets are great opportunities to make extra money backing favorites and picking winners in smaller groupings. Golf gaming gurus love picking first round leaders "FRL's" and outrights because they cash the biggest pay days, but a calculated prop bet strategy builds the bankroll for next week when the outrights miss by a couple.

Due to the size of the field in New Providence, Bahamas, there's only so many solid prop selections available.

Here's mine:

• Top 5: McIlroy (+130), JT (+140)
  • Both are tied for 1st this year in Birdie or Better % (BOB)
• Top 10: Justin Rose (-105), Webb Simpson (-145)
  • The best two Top 10 options to make a little money in this limited field.
• Top European: Rory McIlroy (+175)
• Top USA: Collin Morikawa (+500)
  • As the tourney favorite, you can add to the outright bet with a USA win as well. ;-)
• Best Tournament Matchups, a couple off Draft Kings
  • Justin Rose over Tony Finau
  • Sam Burns over Jordan Spieth

Keith's Corner - PGA Coaching

The weather in paradise this week looks perfect. Even with a favorable forecast, the players will have to control their ball in the wind. 5 Par 3's will certainly be an interesting test to start. Here's a quick article I wrote that will give you a couple of strategies for conquering the breeze during your next windy round.

On Friday, I'll be sending out a video demonstration to go along with the article.

Best in the world in the Bahamas. Let's Go!

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