We've got Maple Fever!
Open week(s)
We are crossing the northern border to start back-to-back weeks of national Open Championships. Though I doubt the RBC Canadian Open will have the teeth of what the USGA has prepared in Boston, I still see this week as a perfect tuneup for the challenge of The Country Club.
St. George's Golf and Country Club is nestled in the suburbs of Toronto. A Top 5 course in Canada, this Stanley Thompson designed masterpiece last hosted the Canadian Open in 2010. Even if there were a bunch of PGA Tour veterans who played that edition here this week it really wouldn't matter. In 2014, the course had a significant green restoration by Tom Doak and Ian Andrew.
- The layout is a Par 70 measuring 7,046 yards.
- This sounds short by PGA Tour standards but take a closer look. There are five Par 3's of which four measure over 200 yards. Seven of the Par 4's are over 450 yards and the three Par 5's are reachable. This means players with great long iron control will have an advantage.
- The course is on a rolling landscape, elevation changes await everywhere for these players to contend with.
- Half of the tee shots favor a left to right ball flight. Might be a right-handed fader's golf course...
RTL connections are strong this week in Canada. I spoke with Toronto based architect Ian Andrew and he said the golf course was firm and fast a week ago. The weather was a different story this week.
- Starting Tuesday into Wednesday, St. George's expects to receive an inch of rain.
- Thursday through Sunday temperatures are expected to sit in the low 70's to high 60's. Wind conditions will be moderate as the woodland golf course lacks tons of wide open space. That may cause winds to swirl, but the breeze is only predicted to be in the mid-teens.
- Rain will continue into Thursday AM and then subside. Saturday more wet weather is expected and Sunday currently looks like the best day of the week for the conclusion.
The weather is a key point in the competition this week. Players will have to contend with smaller than average sized greens (6,200 sq ft) on approaches with mid to long irons. Damp surfaces with greens all tilted back to front will be very receptive versus where they were a week ago. Based on the overall length and these conditions, I expect a winning score in the high teens (16-20 under par).
- In the last ten years, the average odds of the winner was 60-1 (+6000).
- Five of the Top 10 in the OWGR are entered, and nine of the Top 25.
The field is very top and bottom heavy this week. Much what we all expect the week before a major championship. I believe the favorites lack the odds needed to create outright value, therefore my outright choices this week outlined below sit in the middle tier land of +2000 to +6000. Right where most of the winners of this event historically come from.
Attention shoppers...
For thirty years, the very best of the LPGA have migrated to the Jersey Shore for the ShopRite LPGA Classic presented by Acer. This mainstay of the LPGA tournament schedule continues to draw great players and awesome crowds from both New York City and Philadelphia. Seaview Golf Club is a thirty-six-hole facility situated across the bay from Atlantic City. Although AC isn't what it was years ago, this resort is a fantastic golf resort.
A beautiful old-world hotel splits the golf course layout in half. Inland we have the William Flynn designed Pines course and then out toward the bay is the Donald Ross layout the LPGA uses for this event. This unprotected landscape is always wind affected.
- Much like the RBC up north, we expect rain in New Jersey leading up to the tournament. This will help the ladies significantly because when it is wet the Bay Course plays easier as the small Ross targets get a little bigger!
- During the tourney, we expect rain on Friday and Saturday. Even with the wet weather, the wind is predicted to sit around 20 mph. That sounds difficult, but this unprotected playground can get very windy. The ladies will take twenty.
- Temperatures will be seasonal in the mid-70's.
Seaview's Bay Course is one of the shortest length courses the ladies will compete on all year. The Par 71 and 6,190 yard walk is 450 yards shorter than last week's US Women's Open.
- The average hole lengths display a layout that with wet conditions will turn into a birdie fest. Even with just three rounds, I expect a winning score in the high teens for this one.
- Take a look at these average hole lengths:
This tournament brings the full field into play. Since last week was such a mental grind, players attending this week will be prepared for the weather and wind. I am considering strong play by certain ladies who did contend last week.
- Four of the Top 10 in the Rolex World Rankings are here and nine of the Top 25.
I have played this course a half dozen times. The greens are small and require great accuracy to continue getting birdie putts. Looking back at the past champions, those with great approach skills and a hot putter have done well.
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Over the hills and far away
A Canadian has not won the Canadian Open since 1958. There have only been four home winners in 109 tournaments. Sorry, Corey, Mackenzie, and others, the trend is not your friend this week.
Course history can be thrown out the window so let's start with our comparison courses instead. Wells Fargo, The Memorial, Valspar, and Charles Schwab all require players to hit the fairway to improve their approach chances. They are strategic courses where when you miss, recovery can be difficult. I even believe the other RBC event (The Heritage) is a strong comp as well. If you look at the layout closely, over 60% of your approach shots are going to be 175 yards or more. Scoring will specifically be centered around surviving these long iron Par 3's and long iron second shots on Par 5's.
I mentioned the left to right bias off the tee. I'm particularly paying attention to the elevation changes this week as well. The Country Club has a very varied terrain. In many ways, this course is a perfect precursor for those favorites in Boston. It will be interesting to see whether they are looking ahead or looking into St. George's.
- Sugar Shane Lowry had his worst finish last week since November with a T32 at the Memorial. He rates #1 in my PGA model for two very specific reasons: great in gaining fairways and he's first in proximity to the hole. He's a huge favorite for the US Open, but I believe he's going to stir up the betting world and do it one week early. He's a genius from the sand and this course has 104 bunkers, of which 61 are greenside. He's gained over eight shots versus the field in his last five events. Placement or picked to win, Shane Lowry is delivering green this week.
- Tony Finau's recent stretch of play is impressive. Much like Shane, his last five events he has gained significantly on the field (+6.6). Tee to Green his ball striking has been on point and this course calls for some serious accuracy. Power is a huge key alongside being in play and Tony's terrific game is in a perfect position to win. One of the keys to Finau's finishes has been his putting. Yes, his putting! He's gained strokes on the greens in three straight tournaments. Watch out...
- My next outright has gained strokes at the PLAYERS, Valspar, Masters, Heritage, PGA, and Schwab. Harold Varner III or HV3 is a ball-striking machine. People say he can't finish at home. He has won professionally in Australia and Saudi Arabia earlier this season. Well, Canada is not home and with many of the favorites focused on next week, I see him slipping into contention. HV3 works perfectly here because his strength is a combination of Approach play and Around the Green skill. Look at his DraftKings price this week. The breakthrough is coming and Canada just might be the coolest spot for Harold to handle the pressure on Sunday.
- My last outright has four wins on the PGA Tour. Past the favorites, that is a lot of win equity in the field. One of those wins is at Colonial and another at Sea Island. Two target spots both off the tee and into the green. Over his last ten events, Chris Kirk has gained nearly five shots on the field. That Top 5 at the PGA is a spark that will add the extra confidence needed to win. T2G he is ranked fifth in the field and Top 10 for Birdie or Better percentage. His putting can be a concern, but in two of his last three events, he's gained over 1.5 shots. That's the added key that makes him a Sunday afternoon guy for sure.
Outright winners - RBC Canadian Open
Shane Lowry (+1800)
Tony Finau (+3000)
Harold Varner III (+3300)
Chris Kirk (+5000)
Baywatch!
The ShopRite LPGA Classic has crowned some of the LPGA's best over its thirty-plus year history; Annika, Lexi, and Karrie Webb to name a few. The course can be a bit quirky. There are some unique doglegs that force layups and the mounding surrounding the fairways and greens are unique. The ladies I have selected have all had success on the property. They are currently in great form from the year's second major championship and I believe will contend.
We began the year on a Brooke Henderson run. In her first six events, this season she finished T13 or better and four of those were in the Top 6! Then she had to change her driver. The new USGA rule on driver length went into effect and her most dominant club in the bag had to be changed. With a T15 finish last week, the transition is finally complete. In the last five years, she's had four Top 40 finishes here. She's climbing the Strokes Gained Total charts and tenth on the tour on Approach. She finished her runner-up in the fall of 2021 and with a quick return is ready to win on this turn.
As I just mentioned, the last edition of this event was played in the fall of 2021. I picked Leona Maguire to win that tournament and she's on my list again for all the same reasons. This Irish born player lives for settings like this. Fresh off a Top 10 (8th) at the US Open in four visits to Seaview she has three Top 35 finishes. I expect the wind and weather to play a factor this week and Around the Green, she's talented at saving par. Not to mention, the Par 5's are short and three of the Par 4's play under 320 yards. Short shots will be key to contending and she's great at them.
In the last six years, Anna Nordqvist has won this tournament twice alongside two Top 5's and two more Top 20's! The current Women's AIG Open Champion can play windswept courses. Last week, she was sixth at the US Open and her putting led the field. On these small tricky greens, that history alongside a hot putter will be tough to beat. Her all-around game has been trending for weeks, so at these odds, she provides a little value for the win.
The runner-up from last week has a great history at the ShopRite. Mina Harigae needed a confident finish to get her season on track. In the last five years, she has had three Top 20 finishes. Her putting and short game have always been great, but the approach game was lacking. It came around last week and the run-up approach plays at Pine Needles are the same as Seaview. After all, Donald Ross designed both golf courses!!! That is why I am weighing last week and course history so much. Seaview is quirky, and Mina has the proven ability to figure it out.
Outright Winners - ShopRite LPGA Classic
Brooke Henderson (+1600)
Leona Maguire (+2800)
Anna Nordqvist (+2800)
Mina Harigae (+5000)
I will be inside the ropes at the US Open!
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