Irish eyes are smiling

Fire up an all OWGR field and the cream continues to rise to the top. Fourteen of the top 15 in the world competed last week in Ponte Vedra and number two won for the second time this year. Is Rory McIlroy a more complete player? On a week where McIlroy lost strokes around the green, hit 63% of his GIRs, and struggled to secure fairways, he won THE PLAYERS (again). A course where only the best ball strikers capture the crown, Rory made the most of his moments and won on St. Patrick's Day. I guess we all should have seen that coming.

Of the top five players in the world, Scottie finished T20, Xander barely made the cut and is still recovering from a rib injury, Collin was once again blown away by the wind over the weekend, and The Kid Åberg missed the cut. Even world's number six Hideki Matsuyama missed the cut. If there was ever a golden opportunity to win a green jacket..? Imagine the rhetoric around Rory by the time he gets to Augusta. In the meantime, after two elevated events in a row, we are brought back down to earth for the Valspar Championship. The final of four stops on the Florida swing, I am back in the research chair building our betting card.

Florida's finale

The Tampa Bay Classic was a schedule nomad for some time. The Valspar has been contested in May, September, October and March. The week after the PLAYERS is not ideal, but the lead-up to Augusta is far better than the FedEx Fall Series. Three of the top 10 and 10 of the top 25 in the OWGR are here competing for $8.7 million, $1.566 million and the trophy for first. We have not seen a field of 156 players since the Farmers over a month ago. That means, many in Tampa may not have competed in some time. The top 65 and ties will make the weekend cut. The Innisbrook Resort's Copperhead Course is unlike all of the other Florida venues. The par 71 test measures 7,352 yards, has five par 3s, and a large number of elevation changes.

The course added 12 yards to the ninth hole pushing it to a new length. The average winning score over the last decade is 11 under par and the cutline was under par once in that time frame. We've had some interesting winners in recent memory. Our defending champion Peter Malnati was a +30000 (300-1) longshot one year ago. Other winners include elite middle tier players like Sam Burns and Paul Casey. Masters winners Jordan Spieth and Charl Schwartzel also have a title in the last 10 years. Writers generally mention other great T2G courses as relevant comps. Those comparisons aren't wrong, but you need an above average putter to win here. I prefer those comps which require putting and then ball striking.

Keith's Keys 🗞️ A couple of key skills you can claim as your own at the water cooler and cocktail party conversations. You can find complete explanations for each in the betting breakdown. Roll that rock: Four of the last five winners have gained an average of five strokes (or more) on the field with their flatstick. Scrambled please: Six of the top 12 most correlated stats for contending are various scrambling skills. Four par 5s, you must be a good pitcher of the golf ball to score. Long strokes: Approximately 50% of approach shots are played from 175 yards or more. The five par 3s have an average distance of 212 yards!

A couple that come to mind are Augusta National, Harbour Town, Colonial, CC of Jackson, and TPC Southwind. Changes have been made to the course since covid to increase the test. Tournament officials raised the rough height a couple years back and narrowed the intermediate cut around the closely mown areas and greens. The Copperhead Course has 74 bunkers, and nine holes where water comes into play. Several elevation changes cause one to ask themselves if this setting is really in Florida. We finish with another three-hole name; the Snake-pit! Sixteen, 17, and 18 are a difficult finish that can bite you. The aggregate scoring average on those holes is a half stroke over par. The green surfaces are relatively small (5,800 sq/ft) and covered in Poa trivialis. The same grass we saw last weekend at Sawgrass.

The Valspar starts in...

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Our forecast looks interesting this week. Social media is blowing up over a huge weather advantage for the AM/PM players in rounds one and two. I'm not ignoring this scenario, but I'm also not changing my entire strategy for the week to incorporate it. Should the wind get as bad as they say it will, then what stops the TOUR from pulling a Farmers and suspending play. Historically, this tournament has some of the tightest scoring on TOUR. Manage one bad day and you still have selected the best players for the remaining three rounds. The forecast brings too many unknowns and as a golf course operator for 20+ years, one rule always applies. The more you think the weather will do one thing, the more likely it is to do something else. This isn't Scotland in July.

Temperatures are peaking in the mid-70s and the we don't expect very much rain along with the wind. The turf should be quite firm as west central Florida has not seen much rain in the last few weeks. A firm test here is a good one. Winners barely make it into the double digits and Vegas has the tournament over/under set at 14.5 under par. Those five par 3s make a big difference on the leaderboard. Collectively, they play over a half stroke over par for the week and have an average birdie rate of 11%. In comparison, the 3s carry an average bogey rate of over 18%! Eight of the nine par 4s have scoring averages over par and approximately 50% of your approach shots are from 175 yards or greater.

Six holes carry a birdie rate over 15% as compared to 13 holes which hold a bogey rate over that same value. In a unique twist, with the addition of 12 yards to last year's scorecard, the Copperhead now has the same official scorecard length (7,352) as the Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass. Are they similar? From a ball striking perspective yes, keep that ball safe and in the closely mown areas. On the greens, the biggest similarity is the agronomy. Past that, you better putt if you plan to win this one.

Four to score

A deep look into the leaderboards at Innisbrook is very revealing. Having played the Copperhead a couple times, my on-course experience helped me understand why this layout would reward the likes of Sam Burns, Taylor Moore, and Peter Malnati. The traits they displayed in their winning week can be summarized in four key points.

1. Nine of the last ten winners have gained over three strokes on the putting green during the week they won. Four of the last five winners gained an average of 5.6 strokes! Putters contend on the Copperhead. If there's one trait to favor it's the flatstick. The Copperhead Course is unlike a majority of Florida venues. Other courses are flat, and when you walk 18-holes at Innisbrook, you cannot believe the amount of elevation changes your feel. Those ground swells are also a huge factor in reading and putting these greens. The putting surfaces here are small and complicated. Pick players in good 2025 putting form.
2. Six of the 12 most correlated statistics for Copperhead contention involve scrambling. More than just strokes gained around the green, players must be able to score from close range. The average winning score over the last five years is 13 under par. Those same winners averaged 20 sub-par scores during their winning week. The birdie-bogey balance plays a huge role across the Innisbrook hills. A par 71 with four par 5s is a scoring opportunity for great pitchers of the golf ball. Players gain almost as many strokes (against the field) on the four 5s as they do on the nine par 4s!
3. Nearly 50% of approach plays come from 175 yards or more. The Copperhead Course is one of those TOUR venues where the GIR% for the week is 60% and well below the weekly average. Positional doglegs off the tee require the field to lay back on certain holes. Winning players require a great long iron game. Further proof of the impact can be felt by five par 3s on the scorecard with an average length of 212 yards! If 30% of your approaches (five par 3s over four days) come from a perfect lie off the tee, the best 200-yard players have a huge advantage. This collection of par 3s is very difficult, so any gains with your iron game are significant for field separation. Here's this week's largest gain ranges for the three different par categories.
   • Par 3 – 200-225
   • Par 4 – 400-450
   • Par 5 – 550-600
4. A quick look at the course map succinctly shows a bunch of bending holes. Players will face 11 (of 13) dogleg fairway landing areas. Innisbrook annually carries one of the lowest driving distance averages on TOUR. With all of those bending fairways, players are forced to play very positionally off the tee. Laying back is fine as long as you find the fairway. This is no easy task, as five of the last 10 winners have lost strokes to the field OTT in the year that they won. Putting the ball in the short grass is paramount to success. A quick look at the recent top 10s show their average SG:OTT finish for the week is lower than strokes gained approach or around the green.

One final thought to consider as you connect with the Copperhead Course and build out your lineups and betting cards. Over the last five years, there has been an average of one repeat player to finish inside the top 10. Twice in those five years, zero players repeated back-to-back top 10s. Only five people have done it in five years and Sam Burns accounts for three of those. I'm leaning more on current form than course history. The blueprint is proven, but the question is more who is doing it well now versus who has done it here in the past.

Outright Winners - Valspar Championship

Alex Smalley has six top 21 results in seven starts this year. Smalley has gained an average of five strokes total on the field across the last five events. Fourteenth at THE PLAYERS, Alex gained nine strokes T2G. The Duke grad has really put together a well-rounded skill set and as such ready for any test. Ten straight starts with a positive T2G gain, Smalley can come up big on a course where scoring from short range is a premium point of emphasis. Alex Smalley +7000

We jumped on the Jake Knapp train back in Scottsdale. Since then, Knapp has finished 17-25-6-12. Sixth and twelfth in Florida, Jake’s success has stemmed from excellent iron play and putting. Two traits we need this week to win the Valspar. As a TOUR winner (Mexico Open), I don’t worry about Knapp’s ability to close on Sunday. Top 10 ranked in the field for his flatstick and iron game, let the shaft loose and let’s hit this longshot! Jake Knapp +9000

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