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The FedEx St. Jude Championship is the start of the three-week playoff run for the PGA Tour. A full year has passed since Cantlay's epic close, and the stage is set for everyone to make a run at Scottie Scheffler. We remember the opening round always taking place in the northeast, but the PGA Tour has changed things up this season and elevated one of its long-time tournaments to the playoffs. The "St. Jude" has been on the tour schedule for decades. What began in 1958 and moved to TPC Southwind in Memphis back in 1989 is now a playoff host.
This event has evolved three times in recent history. Years ago, it was always the lead-up week to the US Open. Although a couple of superstars may show up, it wasn't the strongest field of the season. In 2019, the PGA Tour transitioned the tournament into the WGC series. For three years, the elite descended upon Memphis to compete.
Southwind just isn't all about scoring. Even though the design isn't going to win any awards, it does create many challenges for these guys. The Par 70 scorecard has your typical twelve Par 4's, two Par 5's, and four Par 3's layout. It measures 7,233 yards.
Heading to Memphis in August seems a little suspect. Better bring a change of clothes, as we expect heat and humidity to reign.
Players will have little to blame when it comes to the conditions. With all the talk about money in golf currently, this playoff season should be sensational. I believe everyone will be firing on all cylinders when it comes to the competition. With the majors behind us, this three-week sprint should not disappoint. I cannot wait to put all the outside talk aside and let the very best compete head to head week after week. Enjoy the entertainment as cutlines matter and the drama will definitely follow as a result.
The DP World Tour, LPGA, and Ladies European Tour (LET) have tri-sanctioned this week's unique event the ISPS Handa World Invitational. The combined men's and women's field will compete over two golf courses for the first two days. Following 36-holes, there will be a cut to the Top 60 and ties for both the men and the women. Those 120 players will then play on Saturday to get in the Top 35 and ties for Sunday's final round. The two-cut tournament will be played at the Massereene and Galgorm Castle Golf Clubs.
The two parkland style golf courses are not very long, but they do require a high level of accuracy. Three rounds will be played this week by all competitors on the Galgorm Castle course. The tougher of the two tests, Galgorm hosted the 2020 Irish Open and annually hosts the Northern Ireland Open. Although not a stereotypical links style layout like we expect over in the British Isles this test will keep the world's best honest as they navigate the course.
Last year was the first time this specially sanctioned event was contested. It is the first-ever event to award an equal purse for both men and women professionals. The $3 million prize pool is split equally with both 72-hole tournaments competing for $1.5 million.
The ladies can expect a lovely summer week in Ireland for the competition. Temperatures are expected in the mid to high 70s with little to no wind. That's a nice break after they were basically blown away all weekend at Muirfield in the AIG Women's Open. There's a 25% chance of rain on Sunday, but otherwise, the skies should be clear for a wonderful competition.
Even with the tremendous effort for purse equity, this tournament lacks a strong field due to its scheduling spot on the calendar. For many tour players, it has been three plus weeks in a row with two tough major championships all contested across Europe. As such, only two players in the Top 30 Rolex world rankings are here and six of the Top 100. Considering the lack of star power and a large amount of LET players in the field, betting operators have significantly limited their exposure to the event.
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After watching a two plus hour courtroom Zoom last night, I found out the PGA Tour won the first of many lengthy battles with LIV. Talor Gooch, Hudson Swafford and Matt Jones will not be permitted to play in the FedEx Cup playoffs. Last night, this summary was published by Front Office Sports. It is a succinct breakdown of the issues and where we are now. If you're looking to catch up quickly, this piece will serve you well.
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Success at Southwind
TPC Southwind has been a mainstay on the PGA Tour for decades. The various championships contested in Memphis were outlined in the opening narrative. As we break down the skills needed to contend this week, we must keep one thing in mind; with three weeks to go, everyone has a lot to prove. Motivation comes in many ways, but as you'll see with our outright card some are just in unbelievable form while others are playing for something to prove.
To best understand the test this week let's consider a couple of comp courses for TPC Southwind.
As that last point alluded to, this week there is not just pressure off the tee, but when you do hit the fairway players will need to score. Since the event transitioned into a WGC, the average winning score is fifteen under par. Not just good players win here, great ones do. They do it by creating birdie opportunities with their mid irons.
Based upon the approach range we all would think players hit a ton of GIR's at TPC Southwind, but they don't. Skill around the green in bermuda rough is needed as well. The average GIR percentage is just 60% which is well below the tour average of 66%. I'm leaning on players who have specific short game skills in bermuda rough when it comes to getting up and down around the green. Players also have forty-three greenside bunkers to contend with as well, so the overall short game is a differentiator.
This Par 70 scorecard has twelve strategic Par 4's. Seven of those twelve are over 450 yards in length. The Top 5 most difficult holes at TPC Southwind are Par 4's. As with most weeks, players who score well on difficult Par 4's will be a factor. Combine that with avoiding that bermudagrass at all costs and we have this list of contenders...
Jon Rahm (+2200)
Tony Finau (+2200)
Pick 3* (+3500)
Pick 4* (+4000)
(*- member content)
Between the trees please
The field is deep in future talent. Considering the course, competing alongside the men, and a little fatigue factor we can still determine a short list of outrights. Let's start with the skill set needed to get the job done in Ireland. Both Galgorm Castle and Massereene require the ladies to keep the ball in play. Much like Memphis for the men, we'll take accuracy over length off the tee.
That's 65% of the tee shots before the 36-hole cut. When we get to the weekend, almost every tee shot on the back nine at Galgorm Castle works the same way (five of seven). To close this tournament, a right-handed golfer will need to thread the needle through the trees with that fader (left to right) trajectory. Another item to navigate this week for the ladies will be the water. Even though Massereene sits alongside a Lough Neagh, the challenge is mainly trees, sand, and grass. Galgorm on the other hand can trip you with a double bogey quite quickly.
To win this week a player must keep her ball between the trees and above water as a priority. Once she does that, the approaching contest isn't much easier. With some very strong talent in good recent form at the top, I'm recommending a small elite card of contenders.
Leona Maguire is heading home. She's the headliner of this event in the lady's draw and will be supported accordingly. She played the weekend at the AIG Women's Open at seven under par in challenging conditions. Her ball striking was impressive, and the putter is always hot with Leona. Who could forget her undefeated 5-0 match run at last year's Solheim Cup? She will keep the ball in play as she hits more than 75% of her fairways. On approach, she hits more than 70% of her GIR's. If she misses a couple, her short game is much better than the average LPGA player as she gets up and down more than 60% of the time. A perfect favorite for two courses like these layouts.
For two of the last three weeks, we have predicted Linn Grant to win. The amazing twenty-three year old Swede kept up with the competition last week at Muirfield finishing T19. She was Top 10 at the Évian as well a couple of weeks prior. The last time she teed it up with the men she won by nine strokes. The reason I love Grant is due to her ability to score. Put her on these average parkland courses and she will make five or more birdies a round. Her scoring average is well under 70 and her birdie average is 4.6. She's not only long off the tee (265+), but she's incredibly accurate hitting 73% of her fairways. Place her back in a field with a lot less talent and she's automatically a favorite to win.
Leona Maguire (+700)
Linn Grant (+800)
Pick 3* (+3000)
Pick 4* (+3000)
(*- member content)
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