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Welcome to Austin

The PWGC Dell Technologies Match Play has been contested at Austin Country Club since 2016. The danger laden risk/reward layout is a great venue for the PGA Tour's match play festival. 8 of the Top 10 players in the world are here (21 of the Top 25, 45 of the Top 50). Needless to say the strength of this field is well over 700 and will certainly entertain us.

• The WGC Match Play starts on Wednesday morning, get all of your pre-tournament betting done Tuesday night!
• The weather looks great for golf this week with very little rain and wind, the breeziest day coming on Sunday (15+mph). The temperature this time of year in Texas can really cycle. Wednesday and Thursday morning start out in the 40's and will climb thirty degrees into the 70's. The weekend looks like 80's/50's for the highs and lows.
• It's worth mentioning the format as it has changed a couple times since the tournament started back in 1999.
  • 64 players are sorted into 16 groups of 4. Each group winner advances to the Top 16 bracket. Those men play Saturday morning, the Top 8 on Saturday afternoon, Semifinals on Sunday morning and then the Finals and 3rd Place match on Sunday afternoon.
  • That's 90 holes in 5 days. It's match play so it could be less or it could be more.
• When selecting the group winners, an average of 4.8 top seeds have made it out of the group stage.

Jon Rahm is #1 in the world. The highest ranked player in the field is Maverick McNealy at #74. From 1 to 74 is a difference of 6.37 world ranking points. That’s it. 73 players are separated by an average of .087 points. Just like the NCAA Basketball Tournament, anyone can beat anyone else at any given time.

The JTBC Classic presented by Barbasol is played at Aviara Golf Club. A beautiful resort course built on the side of a hill in Carlsbad, California. Much like Austin Country Club there isn't a level lie on the course. So with plenty of elevation changes and awkward lies here's what I'm looking at when we wager on the LPGA this week.

• We have only our third full field of the LPGA season this week. With five tournaments already completed and plenty of frequent flyer miles, they are about to officially get the tour going. With the first major of the year next week, look for the stars to step up in preparation.
  • 144 players in the field, 9 of the Top 10 in the Rolex World Rankings, 20 of the Top 25.
    • #2 Nelly Korda won't be joining us as she recovers from a blood clot in her arm.
• The average winning score at Aviara over the last five editions has been 17.4 under par. That's ten less than Thailand's winning score. This course is difficult, players who are inaccurate will be tested.
• The players are in Carlsbad, the home of every club company on earth. Pay attention to preparation for next week. We will probably see plenty of additions to the bag and minor adjustments in play.
• The weather might play a little role in the eventual outcome this week. As the rounds progress, the temperature is going to drop (mid 70's to mid 60's). The wind will pick up as well. A drop in temperature alongside every player trying to account for the climb and fall of the course will present another challenge.

The WGC Match Play falls at a perfect time for Read The Line. With the men involved in a non-traditional event it will allow more focus time on the LPGA. The Chevron Championship (traditionally The Dinah Shore) will offer more betting opportunities than customarily the case each week on the LPGA. Call me crazy, but they may even offer some live betting! Follow that with a trip down Magnolia Lane in two weeks and things are about to get really interesting...

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Who's got grit?

I don't want to hear the phrase, "he's a good match play guy." That old adage can be explained and that's how I have selected my winners this week.

• Winning match play competitors always keep the ball in play. They realize it puts pressure on their opponent every time they hit a fairway or green. That pressure adds up over 18 holes.
• They also have a solid short game. When they do miss, they show a little grit and fight to make par. They sustain momentum and therefore don't ever give in to their opponent.
• Great match players can putt. Plain and simple. They consistently make putts continuing to apply pressure on the other guy.
• You also need a little luck. In this case it comes down to draw. Compare JT's Group to Xander's and you get my point.

Now that we know what it takes, let's see how it applies. Xander Schauffele played great last week in Tampa. In fact, in his last five tournaments he has positive Strokes Gained values in every major category. He's ranked Top 25 in all of them for this field. Sure he was beat up at the PLAYERS, but who wasn't in his tee time wave? Xander's 4th in the field in Sand Saves. Austin CC has 104 bunkers, 59 of which are greenside. Should Xander miss, he has the talent to keep his match going. This guy is so due for a win and I think the golf gods knew it when they gave him the most favorable group draw.

I like angry golfers when it comes to match play. It takes a certain type of man or woman to look you in the eye and really want to destroy you. Tyrell Hatton is not a nice person. He plays with an edge and that's why he's been very successful in this tournament. Another reason for his success? He's ranked 3rd in Strokes Gained:Putting. Only DJ and Sepp Straka are better with the flatstick in this field. Those are nice guys. Let's face it, Tyrell is also 3rd in Strokes Gained:Around the Green and a very solid iron player. Add it up with his fiery demeanor and watch him work his way through this bracket.

The best iron player in the field is Will Zalatoris. Even though much has been made of his putting, he is improving steadily. 13 of the 18 holes at ACC have trouble along the left side of the hole. Zalatoris plays a fade. And as a right-hander will never see that trouble. His ability to put the ball in play with EVERY single shot will wear opponents out. With a switch from Stroke to Match play, I believe he will feel less pressure putting, perform and excel in this environment. You can't finish second at Augusta and be a truly bad putter...

Outright Winners - WGC Dell Technologies Match Play

Xander Schauffele (+2500)

Tyrell Hatton (+3300)

Will Zalatoris (+5000)

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Going Back to Cali

I have played Aviara Golf Club. The layout and course is absolutely spectacular. Having experienced the golf course personally, I'm even more locked in this week to blow away the books! Here's the most important facts about the course you need to know.

• It doesn't look long on paper, but half the holes climb the hill and the other half take you back down. Expect over 200' of elevation change as you play both nines.
• There are some key penalty areas placed on the course. The risk reward Par 5 8th hole comes to mind and five of the nine holes on the Back 9 have significant trouble.
• The course plays tight. Since you are always going up, down or on the side of a hill it becomes very difficult to aim and be accurate.

I don't care what the odds are, if Jin Young Ko is playing, I am betting her to win. She has won 6 of her last 10 tournaments. Jin Young has scored in the 60's 29 of her last 30 rounds! Leaving her off the card makes no sense. Aviara requires you to be accurate and score well at the same time. Ko is #1 is Scoring Average, Strokes Gained:Total and #2 in Putts per GIR. This course actually favors her because of the premium it places on accuracy. Just look at her history here - 4th, 2nd, 10th in her last three visits. Bet her!

XiYu Lin lost in a playoff the last time the LPGA played. She closed that tournament by birdieing her last four holes in a row only to lose when her opponent made an eagle. She ranks in the Top 10 for SG:Tee to Green (4th), Scoring Average (7th), Putts per GIR (7th) and SG:Tot (9th). Accurate off the tee and a great approach player, her recent form will help her contend again this week. Two weeks ago, we won her matchup and placement bet. This week she's one of just a handful who has the game to compete with JYK.

Aviara requires complete command of your game from tee to green. The #1 ranked player on the LPGA Tour this season in that category is Minjee Lee. Her approach game is equally strong - ranked 1st and as a result she's #1 in Scoring Average tied with JYK. Unlike many of the ladies she's been competing against, this is only her third event in 2022. She's 34 under par in those previous two and trending. Just like Lin, there are only a couple ladies playing well enough right now to compete with JYK. Minjee has two Top 25's here and last year finished 5th.

Outright Winners - JTBC Classic

Jin Young Ko - (+450)

XiYu Lin - (+2000)

Minjee Lee (+2000)

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We had 10 winning prop, placement & matchup bets last week!

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