Decisions, decisions

I sat down with Smylie Kaufman for his podcast earlier this week. Those who watched the Shriners heard his voice covering the event. We discussed the weather in Vegas and number of other things. Heading into TPC Summerlin, we were all focused on the weather, wind, and wave advantage. A substantial delay on Friday morning may have altered the results slightly, but in the end those who played the PM/AM wave had a stroke average approximately three worse than the opposite tee times. Golf betting research can be very impactful, and this example is just another reason why I love to dive deep into each event. These edges are real, and they will positively impact the bottom line.

For the fifth FedEx Cup Fall event we head across the ocean to Japan for the ZOZO Championship. Probably the premiere fall event, we have four players ranked top 15 in the world competing for $8.5 million. A set field of 78 players tee it up for 72-holes. First-places earns $1.53 million, a Masters invite, the PGA, and a two-year exemption on TOUR. A pretty good haul considering 14 players in the field are from the JGTO. Forty-eight of the remaining 64 PGA TOUR players were in Vegas for the Shriners. A majority of the field has been playing and that will help them try to stop the big three favorites in Japan.

ZOZO Championship starts in...

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Fall's signature

If the fall had a signature event, this would probably be it. ZOZO has the largest purse and no cut for those who earn an invite. A one-week trip to Japan is costly, but the PGA TOUR doesn't return until November 7. So, enjoy a couple extra days and see the sights. With no cut, those in the field have a nice advantage receiving FedEx Cup points while another 70+ PGA TOUR players have to watch from home. All four previous Asian editions of the ZOZO have been played at Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club. The par 70 layout has one (or should I say two) very unique feature. Each hole at the 36-hole facility has two greens. Due to the changing climate in Japan, each green has a different grass allowing the members to play 12 months of the year.

Golf starts Wednesday night this week, get your wagers in on time!

The weather this week looks wet. Rain is predicted for all four rounds with Friday and Saturday being the wettest. The wind will also blow in the low teens and temperatures will top out in the low 70s. Funny thing is, Tokyo sits on the northern latitude of thirty-five degrees. That's the equivalent of Los Angeles on the west coast. I bet the guys would love southern California right now over cool damp Chiba, Japan. What a difference halfthe world makes!

Read The Line recap 🗞️ Collin Morikawa won the ZOZO at 14 under par one year ago. His lone start of the FedEx Cup Fall, Morikawa gained 16 strokes T2G. His opening 64 and final round 63 gave him a six-stroke victory over Eric Cole and Beau Hossler. Many questions surrounded Collin after the Ryder Cup, and he answered them all. For the two-time major winner this was his first win in almost two years!

The golf course is a really good test. The average winning score of the first four editions in Tokyo is 16 under par. AGNCC's fairways are tree lined and host 73 bunkers. The terrain moves and players will walk over five miles each round and climb 232 feet in elevation. The scorecard stretches 7,079 yards. Relatively short by PGA TOUR standards, there is a secret. One reason for the length is an extra par 3. AGNCC has five par 3s. An approach players dream, five tee shots each day are played from a perfect lie. The par 4s also tell an interesting tale. Not quite as unique as the double green complexes, but they have a sense of duality. Five par 4s measure under 425 yards and five extend over 480!

Twelve holes have a birdie rate over 15% and six carry a bogey rate over that same value. AGNCC is a solid test. Ball strikers do well here. Look at the winners, Hideki, Collin, Captain Keegan, AND Tiger. Woods was 19 under par the year he won. Adding to the target practice, five holes have water in play and the field driving accuracy is nearly 10% under the PGA TOUR average. We are building a card of capable T2G stars. AGNCC requires you to keep the ball in play. Last year, the scoring average was 0.8 under par. I'm not sure about the travel fit, but this course is a great venue for elite golf. It requires the field to hit solid shots off the tee and with their irons. There are not many holes off and even though you won't get sent home on Friday, if you make mistakes in the opening 36 it will seem like you aren't there on the leaderboard for the weekend.

Keep it in play

I know JT Poston just strolled into Vegas after two months off and won the Shriners. Collin Morikawa played one event last fall after the Ryder Cup and won the ZOZO. Great players can just show up and perform. Truth be told, I believe Collin, Xander, and Hideki will be in this event on Sunday morning. That being said, I'm building an outright card around players with much longer odds and recent starts. I see a couple of players who have been competing in the past few weeks and playing well. I know eight players from the Presidents Cup are entered, but I'm weighting the past few weeks even more.

I'm well aware Xander can steamroll this field like Scottie has done all year and win with very short odds. We just aren't going down that road. There are a couple guys who have proven they can play at an elite level and compete with the Collins of the TOUR. They are going to do that by hitting solid shots. Strokes gained ball striking is the combination of strokes gained off the tee and approach. A pure flusher's favorite analytic, it will separate the men from the boys this week in Japan. AGNCC has well defined tree lined fairways over rolling terrain. All 13 tee shots bend slightly or dogleg sharply. You have to fit the ball in play OTT.

A well-rounded approach game is required. The par 3s call for five shots between 150-200 yards. The par 4s features mid and scoring irons on approach. This is a great test of control and length. The "pin high" players can really separate here as each hole is a tough target test. One area where you can get a slight break is on the greens. These surfaces have rewarded some very suspect putters. The last three winners are Collin, Keegan, and Hideki. Morikawa lost strokes putting in all three events prior to winning last year. Bradley lost strokes with his flatstick in four of his five previous starts. A player can be an average putter and win here.

Short game and scrambling are important. The consistent ball striking test offers just a couple easy areas to score and many of them require some wedge scrambling. I like players who can pitch the ball well from 20 to 60 yards. Keegan and Hideki are two very, very good scramblers. A quiet characteristic most pundits won't mention, but that's where the scoring takes place here. Measuring strokes gained par 4s pinpoints players, but "how" do they actually score. Off the tee and approach matter, but when you consider three par 5s and four par 4s at 400 yards or less, those seven holes are where I would be focused on scoring.

That's not the only place, but one I am featuring. Shotlink scoring averages tell as much of a story as strokes gained data does. How do the successful players attack the course. Where do they make sub-par scores and how do they do it? I strongly encourage you to carry this scoring mindset into your own golf game. What shots are required to score at your home course? Are their five seven iron shots? If there are, I would add that club into my practice routine. I learned so much from my days as a professional at Isleworth with Tiger Woods. He was the very best for many reasons, but the manner in which he broke down a course and built a practice regimen is one very specific reason why he won so often.

Those lessons I learned first-hand are why we win/contend so much. Most handicappers hate non-Shotlink weeks; I love them. The LPGA barely has any data, and we are successful picking their winners. Build a betting card by studying the scorecard, course, agronomy, and scoring. The keys are there in Japan and we have them to help produce one more winning week.

Outright Winners - ZOZO Championship

Kurt Kitayama is the best ball striker in the field behind Xander. In his last two starts, he's gained an average of 12 strokes T2G. That's his average this fall! In two starts at the ZOZO, Kurt has finished T29, T16. The putter gives us headaches, but AGNCC rewards average putters. Kitayama has gained positively OTT in eight straight events. Want the ball in play, call Kurt. Kurt Kitayama +3000

Gary Woodland had his first top 10 finish since returning from brain surgery last week in Vegas. Another incredible ball striker, Woodland has gained an average of six strokes T2G in his last five starts. Gary gained +3.7 strokes with the putter in Vegas. He's changed his practice routine and incorporated a LAB putter. Woodland has a strong course history finishing fifth in 2019. Gary will have a long iron advantage in this field OTT and on the 480+ yard 4s. Gary Woodland +8000

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Inside the ropes at the 2023 Genesis Invitational

Asia rolls on...

Korea is still killing me. Celine Boutier finishes second and Hannah Green who I loved in Shanghai two weeks ago takes the title in Seoul. My life can be a maddening experience at times, but in the end all of this proves our process works for consistently finding winners and contenders. The third leg of the LPGA's Far East swing finds us in Kuala Lumpur for the Maybank Championship. We generally assume all of these venues are close once the tour travels overseas, but the trip from Seoul to Malaysia is over 2,800 miles! That's the equivalent of traveling from Miami to Seattle.

Another limited field of 78 players will compete for 72-holes and $3 million. The largest purse on this Pacific run, playing well in Kuala Lumpur may bank you a bunch of cash. Our very own Celine Boutier won here last year in a nine-hole playoff over Jeeno Thitikul. Both women are back and in solid form. Can they repeat their feat from a year ago; we shall see. Much like the men in Japan, the women will be facing some wet weather in Malaysia. Rain is predicted all four days with temperatures in the low 90s. It's hot and humid in Southeast Asia so even if it doesn't rain your clothes might still feel like it did. Boutier won the first Maybank last year, but that's not the first time the LPGA has played in Malaysia; or here! Keep reading for a quick history lesson.

Maybank Championship starts in...

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Deja vu

Even though this is the second edition of the Maybank, the Kuala Lumpur Golf and Country Club’s West Course is no stranger to championship golf. The DP World Tour (European Tour) visited the course seven times between 2006-2015 for the Maybank Malaysian Open. I’ll bet many of you remember the PGA TOUR coming to Kuala Lumpur for the CIMB Classic held from 2013-2018. Justin Thomas won two years in a row (2015-16) on the West Course. To round out the professional trifecta, even the LPGA has a history at KLGCC. From 2010-2017 they played the Sime Darby LPGA in Kuala Lumpur.

Although the course will be set up different for the LPGA than the DP World Tour and PGA TOUR, the skill set required to win at the highest level remains the same. The women will be faced with a par 72 layout covering 6,596 yards. A traditional scorecard displays four par 3s and 5s, and 10 par 4s. Both par 3s on the back have water in play. In fact, 13 holes present water to the players. Eight of those watery graves are on the final nine holes. Kuala Lumpur has a varied topography. The field will face several elevation changes across 18 holes. That’s not the only challenge, as the design features 92 bunkers! This is a very engaging test for all levels of professional golf. Multiple tee boxes allow tournament officials the resources to create reachable par 4s (14 and 16) as well as stretch out the par 5s.

We start on Wednesday night again, get those bets in on time!

This is a fun venue. It will provide plenty of entertainment as 14 of the top 25 Rolex World rankings are here to compete. Last year it took nine extra holes between two of the best players on tour. The average winning score of the Sime Darby LPGA was 16 under par. Last year, 16 under par barely got you into the top 10! The level of play on the LPGA continues to get more and more exciting. Should the wet weather behave, this will be another exciting scoring fest in hot, humid, and soft scoring conditions.

Over the last three weeks, RTL has finished third, runner-up (2 players), and runner-up again on Sunday. With that momentum it's going to be a late one again this weekend. Get some sleep now because at 3:00am ET on Sunday morning we are winning the Maybank!

Winning on the West Course

If history reveals anything from the former winners on the West Course across three tours, ball striking is key. Justin Thomas, Lee Westwood, and Hideki Matsuyama have all had considerable success here. Each of them are great approach players. Inbee Park, Cristie Kerr, Lexi Thompson, and Shanshan Feng (twice) won during the previous LPGA stint in Malaysia.

In the seven years the DP men played KLGCC’s West Course, the average winning score was 16 under par. The PGA TOUR raised the average winning score to 22 under par in their six trips to Malaysia. The women average 16 under par in their eight editions of the Sime Darby. That’s why this course is extremely attention grabbing. Players can make a bunch of birdies, but they can also find trouble. Normally, we would look at the field and compare the best birdie makers from the KPMG LPGA data.

I’m a little more interested in the players who have proven over the past two weeks they can score on this fall Asia swing. The Buick and BMW were both ball striking contests as well. I looked back at the available data for the CIMB Classic. T2G really separated the field and allowed them to score. The Sunday collection of contenders in this field will need to get past 18 or 20 under par to compete for the $3 million dollar purse and $450,000 first-place prize.

Ninety-two bunkers, elevation changes, and penalty areas will also cause some scrambling. Saving key pars over four days and maintaining momentum throughout all four rounds will prove to be another difference maker in the Maybank. Scrambling can also help you go low on the scoring holes. We have seen it in the past across all three tours and will again this week. The ladies never seem to miss as much as then men, so short game is usually less of a factor. This week at KLGCC it will be important for making sub-par scores.

Most of the approach shots are short. The average par 4 is only 385 yards and they will play shorter when they start moving tees forward. That’s another reason why I’m favoring scrambling. This collection of par 4s also proved valuable last year as nine of the top 10 finishers were inside the top 10 for par 4 scoring. Nine of 10! The par 5s are reachable so a couple longer approaches will be needed along with three of the par 3s. The 2023 top 10 hit 83% of their GIRs and 84% of their fairways. That level of accuracy promotes scoring too. Seven of the top 10 finished inside the top 10 for BoB%. Consider the weather and soft conditions it will create, ball strikers who can score are the foundation of our betting card.

If we just dig into the stats, putting was the least influential of the primary four strokes gained categories. JT, Hideki, and Westwood won here so that definitely checks out. Favor pinpoint accuracy like last year's winner Boutier and you'll be there on the back nine Sunday. We have been too close lately. We have a good read on the tour right now and it’s time to cash in. I won't be sorry for the lack of sleep I suffered over the past two weeks when we finally bank win #11 in Malaysia.

Outright winners - Maybank Championship

Watch out for Angel Yin, the best putter on the LPGA. Angel's ball striking is usually average at best. In her last few starts, she's been excellent T2G and has two straight top 8 results in Asia. Yin was THIRD T2G at Seowon Valley. She gained over 10 strokes on the field. She hit 86% of her GIRs last week with an average proximity of 16 feet! A Yin win is coming, with her putter and that level of proximity she will go deep. Angel Yin +2500

Gaby Lopez is fifty-eighth on the CME points list. Only the top 60 get into the tour championship. Needless to say, she's motivated. A three-time LPGA winner, Lopez has four straight top 30 results and nine top 25s in 2024. Ranked fifth T2G in Seoul, she gained five strokes on the field with her iron game. She ranked seventh in scrambling at the BMW and eleventh OTT. Her putting was off, but KLGCC is proven to assist average putters, she will score. Gaby Lopez +6500

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