Back in black

The PGA TOUR heads two hours southwest to the Las Vegas strip. The Shriners Children's Open is the fourth event of the FedEx Cup Fall. A mainstay on the annual fall schedule for some time, two-time defending champion Tom Kim heads to sin city in search of his third straight win at TPC Summerlin. The betting favorite by far, Kim is the only competitor with odds under +2500. I address Kim's chances in my Monday Odds Drop article, and am on the record stating I see more value down the board. The last time we saw the star South Korean on TOUR, he finished bogey, double, double to eject himself from the top 50 and out of the FedEx Cup playoffs.

There was a ton of media surrounding Kim at the Presidents Cup, but 1.5 points as the emotional leader of your team doesn't inspire us to back him as the heavy favorite. Truth is, there are a bunch of guys playing really well in the early fall events. A couple of them are in the field of 132 in Vegas. Thirty-one of the top 100 in the OWGR are competing for $7 million. First place earns $1.26 million and a number of perks like an invite to the 2025 Masters! Seven million sounds like a nice purse, but that's down from $8.4 million. I'm not sure why, but all of the repeat fall events have awarded smaller purses in 2024. Thankfully it does not affect our odds, but overall, that's not a trend they want to continue on TOUR.

Shriners Children's Open starts in...

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Watch the weathervane

I am constantly asked about the process for building my betting card. One item on the weekly list is looking at the betting line for the winning score. The average winning score of the Shriners over the past five years is 23 under par. The over/under line for this week is 15.5! A difference like that on a course we know quite well is a major red flag. The forecast in Las Vegas this week calls for WIND. A steady breeze over 20 mph is expected for rounds one and two. Temperatures will be on the cooler end rising to the low 70s for rounds two, three, and four. The last time we saw weather like this during the Shriners was 2017. Patrick Cantlay won in a playoff at nine under par.

Each tee time wave will face the wind, so I don't see a specific advantage at this point. Before you lock those DFS lineups tonight, make sure you check the forecast one last time. This is why we include the weather link below. Quick access to the most important information leads to better betting. TPC Summerlin has a number of hazards. The par 71 scorecard measuring 7,255 yards hosts 92 bunkers and four holes where water comes into play. Three of those penalty areas are on the final three holes. Closing out rounds all week in these conditions will be challenging.

Read The Line recap 🗞️ Tom Kim has won two straight tournaments at TPC Summerlin with excellent approach play and a hot putter. In 2022 and 2023, Kim's combined strokes gained on the green combined with his iron play gained over 11 shots on the field! Tom's terrific flatstick averaged 26 birdies over the two years. You have to go low in Vegas and Kim's skill complement is the easiest way to the trophy ceremony.

Normally, the guys will go deep each day. It will be very interesting to watch how the world's best handle this change to the course conditions. I covered the 2023 Shriners on property. The design features are very similar to last week in Utah. Similar skills will be needed to contend and keep the ball out of the desert. Last week it was lava, at TPC Summerlin it is the desert or a backyard. Homes surround the course at TPC Summerlin. The players will receive another carry bump in Vegas. The course is approximately 2,000 feet above sea level. The fairways and greens also roll with the Nevada terrain. The best ball strikers excel here because they can hit their targets from any lie.

The Shriners marks the midway point of the FedEx Cup Fall. The point lists are beginning to cement for next season. The two storylines still exist though. Get inside the top 125 to earn your card and between 51-60 for early season signature status. Vegas week has always been about scoring. I'm excited to watch these guys adjust. Wind can be a brutal competitor and in the wide-open spaces on the outskirts of Las Vegas it can really get blowing. Last year, the narrative surrounded Lexi Thompson's bid to make the cut on Friday. I remember walking with her group as she came close to the weekend. One of the cooler live moments I witnessed on TOUR in 2023. I'm not sure who will be the headliner this year, but rest assured they better be ready for a wild week out west.

Roll the dice rock

The Black Desert Championship was a good preview for what to expect in North Las Vegas. The keys to contending in Utah are relevant again in the desert just south and west of last week's venue. I enjoyed the new event and hope the TOUR can keep the BDC on the schedule in years to come. I for one would look forward to covering both events in the future with just a short scenic drive between them. In an effort to avoid being redundant, I'll be brief in our preview for the specific skills needed to be successful at Summerlin.

• The last five winners have gained an average of seven strokes on the field with their flatstick. I favored the putter last week, and the Korn Ferry's Tour's best putter won. You can't pick everyone, but the strategy makes sense. Whether the wind blows or not, the best putters excel at Summerlin. Bentgrass greens that average 7,400 sq/ft in size are pretty manageable. Players can make putts here.
• The last 10 champions averaged 25 sub-par scores on their way to the winner's circle. Good putters shoot low scores. We have a team of guys across our card that have proven they can go low in the desert in multiple ways. The average cutline is four under par in the last five years. Considering the conditions it will probably be more like two under but expect to get a couple under par if you want to play the weekend.
• The field scores on the par 5s, survives the par 3s, and separates on the par 4s. The average birdie rate on the par 5s is 46%. Three of the par 3s play to a scoring average over par and that leaves 11 holes left to take advantage of. The best par 4 scorers have proven to produce. Over the last decade, winners have gained an average of eight strokes on the field on the 4s.
• Of the four basic strokes gained stats, approach holds the second biggest influence on success. Most of the approach shots fall between 125-175 yards (40%). Don't lose sight of the par 5s and three long par 3s. Those six approach shots fall in the 200+ range and represent the majority of the remaining iron shots. It much easier to separate from the field on longer approaches.
• The key off the tee in Utah was finding the grass, any grass. We lose the lava, but Summerlin has desert and backyards surrounding the fairways in Las Vegas. Keep it in the green and you'll be able to attack on approach. Finding the grass landing areas may be more difficult in the wind, but overall, an above average amount of accuracy off the tee is required.
• Wind will cause the field to miss their targets. I believe scrambling will be another edge for this week due to the weather. Many of the best birdiefest players aren't always the best short game guys. That's why they excel on easy golf courses and struggle when the demands become more difficult. Around the green skill will not only save pars/rounds it will also be the difference in the end of a couple strokes which will define our winner and loser(s). Scrambling at Summerlin will set you apart.
• One consideration we couldn't use last week was course history. When the wind blows, players who have an intimate knowledge of playing TPC Summerlin in the wind (or similar conditions) share an advantage. That's another significant edge over 72-holes. The same guys always perform here for a reason under normal conditions. Throw is a huge change like 20+ mph winds and those with limited local knowledge will be left behind.

Walking the course last year, I learned a bunch about this layout. Traveling to these sites gives us an incredible edge. When the elements go awry in Vegas, our local knowledge will lead to a positive card.

Outright Winners - Shriners Children's Open

Similar to Seamus, Beau Hossler has been on a great fall run. Hossler has five trips to Summerlin and averages a +5-strokes gained total on the field per start. Beau finished runner-up at the Sanderson and eleventh at Black Desert. Over the past two years, Hossler has 11 fall starts. He's gaining an average of 1.1 strokes per round in those events. Beau is ranked sixth for BoB% in the field. Hossler's best fall weapon has been his putter over the past two years. Beau Hossler +3300

How many players in this field have four career wins (or more)? Harris English does. English played beautifully in Utah finishing sixth and gaining five strokes with his putter. He gained another four strokes T2G. In nine Summerlin starts, Harry is gaining an average of 2.2 strokes per start. English is fifty-fourth on the FedEx Cup points list. A big week seals his signature status for 2025. English is ranked sixth in the field for scrambling. When the wind comes, Harry will be ready to handle it. Harris English +4500

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Inside the ropes at the 2023 Genesis Invitational

Shanghai'd

We won't spend long here. Congrats to Ruoning Yin and her closing 64 on Sunday morning in Shanghai. We had the 54-hole leader (Mao Saigo) and third place Sei Young Kim heading into the final round. Saturday night we were “live” and with nine holes to go both of our outrights were one shot off the lead. Yin played the back nine in six under par and torched the field. We've been on both sides of these runs, so we tip our cap and move on.

Seoul, South Korea is our next destination on this four-week tour of the far east. The BMW Ladies Championship features 78 players in a no cut 72-hole tournament. Eighteen of the top 25 in the Rolex World rankings are competing for $2.2 million and valuable CME season long points. Much like the men's BMW Championship, this is an elite event. South Korea has a huge LPGA fan base, and their television contract keeps the tour alive. For the second year in a row, Seowan Valley Country Club is the venue. Located just northwest of downtown Seoul, this mountainside setting is a perfect championship parkland layout.

BMW Ladies starts in...

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Seowon's next...

The BMW has visited a few venues over its short history. We saw Seowon Valley for the first time last year. Minjee Lee won at 16 under par. The golf course is a really good test and fitting for an elite event of this nature. The par 72 layout covers 6,680 yards of hillside. Fifty-five bunkers dot the landscape, and seven holes have water in play. The terrain rolls with the landscape. Last year's top 10 was wall to wall great ball strikers. Take a look.

• Minjee Lee, Alison Lee (lost in a playoff), Lydia Ko, Angel Yin, Jodi Ewart-Shadoff, Jeeno Thitikul, Celine Boutier, Jeongeun Lee6, Jiyai Shin, Jenny Shin, Lauren Coughlin, and Ayaka Furue

All 12 of them scored under par in the final round a year ago. Looking back, I can remember how challenging the course was. Only one player in the field had four rounds in the 60s and that was Hall of Famer Lydia Ko. Based upon her recent form you can understand why she is one of the betting favorites. Seventeen of the 18 winners this season are in the field (no Nelly). Another angle to watch for is the native edge. Nineteen players from South Korea are in the field. Over the years they have dominated the leaderboards. When it comes to building out a complete card, a note worth remembering.

The BMW Championship starts WEDNESDAY NIGHT on the east coast!

The weather for the BMW is going to test the world's best. A storm is in the forecast for Friday afternoon. From noon to 9:00pm local time there's a 100% chance of precipitation. Over an inch is expected which will certainly create issues for the tournament committee. Fortunately, the wind is barely a breeze all week staying in the single digits. Temperatures start in the high 40s and low 50s each day up in the hills and reach the low 60s in the afternoon. The ladies will be wearing layers throughout the four day no-cut contest.

The hills are alive

When the LPGA played Seowon Valley last year, I noticed a bunch of great ball striking, but for the amount of GIRs and fairways hit, the scoring wasn't very low. The wind was about double last year for the forecast this week, but overall, I thought the women would have gone lower similar to the Buick last week. I still think that's the case and I'm favoring scoring over bogey avoidance for the event even though the winning score was only 16 under. One caveat, the winner was not a good putter a year ago. Minjee Lee gained 11.5 strokes T2G and lost strokes putting (-.89) on her way to the trophy.

Oddly enough, the putter was the one place where last year's top 10 really gained an edge. That's my initial point. The top 10 on the 2023 leaderboard hit and average of 87% of their GIRs. That's a really high number and to make matters even more interesting that same group of contenders also hit 87% of their fairways! Imagine hitting that many GIRs and fairways and only one player had four rounds in the 60s. Seowon has one trick up its sleeve and that is those putting surfaces. Players did not make a ton of putts last year. Watching the coverage late at night, I was awake enough to notice there weren't more birdies for all of the chances.

It's easy to pick the best ball strikers, but on top of that I am favoring the good putters. You have to separate the stars somehow to build a betting card. Since you cannot take everyone, I broke down the strokes gained putting stats and compared them to putting average and putts per GIR. The women who excel in all three are my target elite players. The simple truth is LPGA players are very accurate. By featuring the best putters, we stand the best chance to win. Yes, I know Lee won last year, and that can happen, but the majority of the time by taking the best rock rollers we will come out on top!

The terrain changes constantly at Seowon Valley. The multi-course facility has a "Hills" course. The women this week compete on the West and South nines. Many approaches and fairways are above and below the players. Playing from uneven lies all week weeds out the average ball strikers. Finding the best "impact" players in the middle of the betting board is an art form and it will be tested this week. The field is incredibly top heavy and many of the elite are showing incredible form. I see an edge from last year in par 4 scoring. The winners played well on the par 3s and 4s. Six of the top 10 finished inside the top 10 for each of those scoring categories. Conversely, only two from the top 10 last year were inside the top 10 for par 5 scoring.

The final skill I'm featuring is scrambling. Strokes gained around the green didn't raise any flags, but Lee finished eighth in scrambling. Minjee hits the target more often than not, so for her scrambling to set her apart in quite interesting. The average par 5 is only 531 yards and four of the par 4s are under 380 yards. Those "type" of holes lead to awkward wedge shots. Excelling from close range is an advantage this week and one our outright card can handle.

As much fun as last week was until the final nine holes, the BMW will be even better. The LPGA's best is here and ready to roll into the final six weeks of the season. Across the Pacific, this event is really important. For those 19 players from South Korea, this is their superbowl. So, buckle up because the crowds will come out and cheer on the Koreans. A good course, a great field, and our picks have been really close. The last two events we have been inside the top 3. It's time to seal the deal in Seoul.

Outright winners - BMW Ladies Championship

The week before the Buick, Celine Boutier won the women's Aramco event in China. Boutier is a brilliant iron player, ranked tenth on tour, who creates tons of scoring chances on approach. Celine finished fifth last year at Seowon Valley CC. Her top 10 last week proves the LET win wasn't just over a weaker field, her form is on point for the BMW. Boutier is top 20 on tour T2G and for par 3 scoring, both will help tremendously this week. Celine Boutier +2200

Hyo Joo Kim has three top 16 results in five majors this year. When conditions get tough, her game separates from the field. A serious odds play; Kim has been one of the best players on tour over the past few years with six wins and a major. She is an auto bet at +5000! Kim finished sixteenth here last year and third in 2022. A true favorite of the S. Korean crowds, she will be well supported. HJK hits fairways, scrambles well, and putts even better. If her approach game pops at home, she'll definitely contend. Hyo Joo Kim +5000

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