Tree Frogs πΈ
Trending, but in which direction?PALM BEACH GARDENS, FL As we enter the fifth week of TGL, much of the regular season storyline remains to be seen. Match 6 will be played tonight at 7:00 pm ET (ESPN2) between The Bay Golf Club (0-1) and Boston Common Golf (1-0). Each of these teams has only played one match. After this evening's contest, nine more regular-season matchups will be played over the next five weeks. We experienced a similar close to Season 1. These are the last two teams to play their second match. Boston Common looked great against LAGC in their first match, and The Bay GC looked rusty in their H2H with the Atlanta Drive GC. With all of that being said, if The Bay wins, both teams will be 1-1 and have two-thirds of their season still in front of them! You have to give the TGL credit. Whether you love simulator golf or not, every match means something. Each team that began Season 1 2-0 made the playoffs. A goal the boys from Boston certainly have after finishing Season 1 winless. The format, course, and starting lineupsJoe Idone will be in attendance tonight, covering the competition. The co-host of the TGL Show holds court inside every match. Joe's pre-match props have not lost in three weeks! Insights from inside the SoFi Center are valuable and create a betting edge. FanDuel Sportsbook listed Boston Common as the favorite when the match odds opened (-138). The Bay GC holds the starting honor and has made one change to their lineup card since the last time we saw them. Ludvig Γ berg, who withdrew from The American Express, has been replaced by Min Woo Lee. Boston reversed Keegan Bradley and Michael Thorbjornsen on their card. I'm sure that has to do with Thor's ability to conquer Stinger and where it sits on the scorecard. Michael set a TGL record when he made four putts over 10' in his rookie match. If Thor drops the hammer on The Bay, who knows if Hideki Matsuyama and Adam Scott ever get back into the lineup! ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ Gil Hanse is introducing another TGL design this week. βCut the Sailsβ is a reachable par 4 that provides each player with a mediocre risk-reward decision off the tee. No offense to Gil, but a 305-yard forced carry to gain an edge over your opponent is only a decision for Kevin Kisner. The vast majority of TGL players are all long enough to take on the giant dune landscape. Give us all more Stinger tee shots or Last Toll trajectory concerns. Tonight's scorecard is the longest we have seen in Season 2 (6,174 yards). When The Bay GC defeated Boston Common in Season 1, 5-4 on the last hole, the two teams played seven of these 15-holes. BCG has also played seven of the holes in Match 2, while The Bay played 10 of them in Match 3. Familiarity breeds success in the SoFi Center, and these two teams are pretty evenly matched when it comes to hitting shots on these holes. There are six "Season 2 holes" on tonight's scorecard. Holes 4, 5, and 6 followed by 9, 11, and 12. Eleven and 12 are Stinger and The Last Toll. Two new designs that force players to shape tee shots. Both have been incredible additions to the TGL course inventory. Holes 4 and 9 are the par 5 team holes: Storrowed and Bay Breaker. No team has lost a home hole in Season 2. Some have been tied, but the majority are won by the players for whom they were created. A unique aspect of Season 2 I don't think TGL officials could have predicted. The Bay GC were the best ball strikers in Season 1. They led driving accuracy and GIRs. Third in scrambling and first in converting putts inside 10', they earned the number two seed in the playoffs. They returned in Season 2 as a far less accurate squad. Can they correct themselves and start hitting their targets? Here's what I think and who will win. Match breakdownMatch 6I see four keys to winning Match 6. The first is distance. The average par 5 in this H2H is 610 yards! There are no par 4s under 398 yards. If you plan on driving any of them, youβd better hit 190 mph in ball speed. McIlroy and Thorbjornsen are two of the longest (and straightest) players on TOUR. Boston Common is the longest team off the tee in Season 2 and ranked second in fairway accuracy. The Bay GC hit 40% of their fairways in Match 3. Players are hitting 68% of the fairways on tonight's course. McIlroy goes against Lowry on five tee shots. Those holes are 464, 627, 168, 570, and 481 yards! I know the two friends going H2H is entertaining, but it is a huge advantage for BCG. Thor can easily match Min Woo, and Keegan is just as long and more accurate than Clark. The average GIR rate across these 15 holes is 64%. The Bay GC has been the better scrambling team. If there is an opportunity for San Fran phenoms, around the green is it. TBGC finished Season 1 ranked third in scrambling, while BCG was ranked sixth. When on the greens, The Bay GC is very good from inside 10', making 100% of their chances in Match 3. Boston Common made six putts over 10' in Match 2 and 87' total in putts. BCG is solid inside 10' as well. Looking back at Season 1, both teams were equal from long range, and The Bay made more of their chances from 10 feet and in. Boston is a better Hammer team. Their double-down strategy gave them a three-point edge against LAGC, while The Bay still throws Hammers, and their opponents decline. The media asked Shane and Wyndham about their Hammer moves, and the two could not agree in the post-match press conference. Neither team was a strong Hammer team in Season 1, but BCG has employed a new analytic strategy in Season 2. I'll always take the team that believes Hammers are the edge you need to win. It helped the Atlanta Drive win Season 1, and it will always be the biggest edge a team can have. In many cases, it can even make up for a deficient ball-striking performance. There's no place where Hammers have a bigger impact than Singles play. Boston Common has won more points this season in Triples and Singles play. For the individual H2H matches, here is where I'm leaning.
Boston Common Golf is winning Match 6. They are longer and straighter off the tee. A lack of scrambling acumen will not give The Bay an edge, as BCG hits more GIRs from further down the fairway. It comes down to a putting and Hammer contest where Boston has a slight edge in both. Strategy and sinking birdies lead to a few more points, and this match is over by the 14th hole. Betting card - Match 6 Winner* - Odds can change from site to site. Make sure you shop around before making each bet. Even though a bet is listed, it may have changed since the newsletter was published. FanDuel (FD), Caesars (CS), DraftKings (DK), BetMGM (BM), bet365 (B3), Bet Rivers (BR), Fanatics (FN) Do you want to be a better bettor?Become a member of Read The Line today!β
Think you have a gambling problem? Reach out for help. Read The line promotes responsible gaming. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit these online resources: |
β