Collateral damage

CROMWELL, CT - I've received a million messages about the final round at Oakmont. Notably, a majority of those people were with us and backing Sam Burns to win. Everyone was seeking my opinion on the Burns temporary water decision in the fifteenth fairway. Here's my take.

Following the deluge on Sunday afternoon, the golf course was borderline playable. Sending the players back out to finish on Sunday was an "executive decision." It involved television and the USGA. I completely understand why they did it, but in those meetings where you decide what to do, there is always a discussion about collateral damage. The golf course was completely saturated before Sunday. Returning after the rain delay to use the TV window posed a competitive risk. Adam Scott and Sam Burns ended up on the wrong side of that decision. Scott's approach on 11 or Burns in the fairway on 15 were unfortunate breaks based on the conditions. You can argue they should have hit better shots, but how many offline shots did we see after the restart? All of those left approaches from the fairway by right-handed golfers... that's water in between the ball and the grooves.

I feel bad for Burns, and I congratulate JJ Spaun. Spaun played incredibly well under the same conditions as Adam and Sam. He deserved to win on Sunday. I just cannot help but wonder what would have happened if the turf conditions hadn't been sacrificed for television.

The Travelers Championship is our final signature event of the season. The TOUR won't have to travel very far from western Pennsylvania to Cromwell, CT. Situated just southeast of Hartford, TPC River Highlands has been a mainstay on the PGA TOUR schedule for decades. Once thought to be in an impossible place on the calendar following the US Open, Travelers took over the event in 2007. Since that transition, they have developed a blueprint that all sponsors should follow for running a successful PGA TOUR stop.

Signature umbrella

Pete Dye gave us TPC River Highlands in 1982. A par 70 layout traversing 6,844 yards along the Connecticut River, Dye's design places a strong emphasis on accuracy. In three signature editions, the average winning score is 21 under par. Our winner will need to create 25 or 26 sub-par scores over 72 holes. Walking the grounds, it shouldn't be too hard as the turf conditions are soft, and the greens are receptive. The northeast has seen epic amounts of rain this spring, and the Hartford region is no different. It rained all day yesterday, and the forecast calls for more on Thursday afternoon/evening. I find it tough to imagine a world where this course plays firm (at all) by Sunday. Temperatures in the high 80s won't help, and the wind forecast is moderate, blowing most days in the eight to 10 mph range.

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Keith's Keys 🗞️ A couple of key skills you can claim as your own at the water cooler and cocktail party conversations. You can find complete explanations for each in the betting breakdown. Birdie or better: The average winning score since this event was elevated to a signature event is 21 under par; be ready to make birdies. Opportunities gained: When you have a wedge in your hand on approach, you must give yourself a birdie putt inside 20'. Opportunities gained is a real statistic and one that is very important at TPC River Highlands. Par 70 scoring: Take away two par 5s, and the scoring dynamic shifts. Par 70 scorers go low on par 3s and 4s. You will need that trait at the TPCRH.

Our betting favorite is Scottie Scheffler. Set at an incredibly short number, Scheffler had an off week with the putter at Oakmont and finished tied seventh. One year ago, he finished forty-first at Pinehurst and then won the Travelers in a playoff at 22 under par over Tom Kim. As a Read The Line sub, you remember that finish. We had both Akshay Bhatia and Kim on our outright card and in the final group on Sunday with Scheffler. Bhatia faded early, but Kim remained competitive until the protestors stormed the eighteenth green. Security quickly safeguarded the situation, but not before they damaged the putting surface near the hole location. This was the tournament where they moved the hole due to the damage. Just another shining example that selecting successful outrights is hard.

The Travelers Championship starts in...

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Seventy-two players are playing 72 holes for $20 million. There is no 36-hole cut. A guaranteed payday for all, surely sponsor exemptions, Tom Kim and Rickie Fowler have a ton to play for. Luke Clanton and Gary Woodland round out the four free tickets. All four of the exemptions and the remaining 68 players will need to focus on accuracy if they plan to win. Pete Dye loves to test players with small targets. TPC River Highlands has 68 bunkers and five holes where water comes into play; four of them are found over the final six holes. Fairways are narrow, and the average green size is 5,000 sq/ft. Covered in a Bentgrass/Poa blend, these surfaces will perform much like Oakmont and the Philadelphia Cricket Club. Even though they are soft, with just 72 players in the field, they will roll perfectly. Guys can make putts at the Travelers!

Scoring is a priority as 10 of the 12 par 4s are under 450 yards in length. This par 70 scorecard only has two par 5s, so you must take advantage. Along with the 5s, there are 12 holes that have a 15% birdie rate or higher. Conversely, only seven have a bogey rate over that value. You need to go low under normal conditions in Cromwell, but with the soft surfaces, I suggest taking dead aim. TPC River Highlands is the shortest par 70 the players have played to date in 2025. Most approaches are with a wedge in hand, so turn on the radar and lock in on these hole locations. I love being on property during signature weeks, either right before or after a major championship. Body language can tell us so much about what a player is thinking.

Watching the field prepare for the Travelers, certain players are just not into it. As fans, we cannot imagine a world where we wouldn't fight to play our best. Surely Scottie feels that way too, but observing guys like Rory and their mannerisms is one of the keys to winning this tournament. They are all human, and after Oakmont, some are tired. Then again, I also see players who know they are in great form and are trying to take advantage of the last signature event purse and points. It's a polar combination of trophy/vacation seekers. Who's ready versus who's ready to go home?

Northeast style golfer

I've spent a large majority of my life in the northeast. As a club professional, junior golfer, and general golf fan. If I had a dollar for every time I heard the phrase, "He's a northeast style golfer," I'd be less upset about the Sam Burns situation on Sunday. What is a northeast style golfer, and more importantly, are they an actual good fit for TPC River Highlands?

Northeast golf courses stereotypical have certain characteristics. The first one we all notice is their size. Our region of the country is overpopulated. Less space means golf courses get squeezed. TPC River Highlands isn't small, but adding length to a tight footprint doesn't make the venue any bigger. Players contend here by favoring accuracy off the tee and on approach. For every Bubba winner or DJ past champion, there are top 10s filled with Furyk, Henley, and Harman. Inaccurate length got exposed last week at Oakmont, and this is the same story. Keep the ball in play and allow yourself to attack these flags. Again, with the soft conditions, hitting from the fairway will be a huge advantage. It will allow players to control trajectory and, even more important, spin.

The approach ranges for these players are pretty simple (125-175 yards). The most strokes gained against the field by par are listed below:

• Par 3s: 150-175 yards
• Par 4s: 400-450 yards
• Par 5s: 500-550 yards

The field also gained the most strokes for approaches over 200 yards. That's an opportunity analytic. The two par 5s and two 200+ par 3s are important scoring moments in the round at River Highlands. Players who take advantage of those four shots gain a ton on the field. This is a common characteristic where northeast designs only give you a few long iron shots. These moments are key in the round and have statistically proven themselves to help guys separate. I'm looking for great wedge players on approach who also can hit the green in two on par 5s. Target those men, and you'll have plenty of scoring potential. The last five winners have gained an average of five strokes on the field with their iron game.

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Second to the iron game in gains by the slimmest of margins is putting. The last 10 winners have averaged 22 sub-par scores. That requires approximately 30 (or more) legitimate birdie opportunities. Converting that many birdie chances requires some serious flatstick form. If you were good at Oakmont on the greens, I'm interested. We're talking the same agronomy and texture with all of the wet weather. Players tend to make putts at TPC River Highlands. Those who have a ton of northeast experience, either growing up or in college, share an advantage. Can you ball strike your way to contention here, yes. In the end, I'll take guys who are above-average ball strikers that can go nuclear on the greens.

Every par 70 layout favors par 4 scorers, and TPC River Highlands is no different. A few less par 5s and players need to make birdies in other places. I write/say this all the time, but contending on par 70 courses is a skill. It can also be an important talent on par 72 venues. When it comes to par 70 scoring, you must know who these players are to build successful DFS lineups and betting cards. Take a look at the start off hole one. Four straight, completely different par 4s. Great rounds at TPC Highlands always get off to a hot start, and you need to birdie a couple of these to go deep. Not to mention the close, where Pete presents you with three completely different par 4 tests over the final four holes.

Guys who grew up in the Northeast, like Keegan Bradley and Cam Young, have fared well at the Travelers. Both are coming into this week in great form. What is also beginning to pique my attention is the Ryder Cup race. Starting with our Captain, all of these guys are trying to get on the team bus for Bethpage. This is our last opportunity to see how guys will perform on a similar agronomy and in front of a loud, raucous crowd. Cam Young, Ben Griffin, etc. are all here, and Keegan is most certainly watching. That extra layer of pressure inside a signature event is also being factored into my betting and DFS strategy this week.

Scrambling plays a huge scoring role at TPCRH. I'm weighing around the green acumen for close-range scoring on par 5s and short par 4s more than saving par. The shots are the same, but players who love to attack from awkward wedge lengths have fared well at the Travelers. Strokes gained ARG is ranked as the fourth most impactful trait of the four main strokes gained skills, but short game scoring is important and should not be overlooked. Especially when you consider the size of these greens and the terrain in this region. To reinforce this point, players practice a ton of wedge shots across the practice facilities at TPC River Highlands. If they are noticeably working on a specific skill, then you better believe it is important.

In back to back weeks, we have gotten burned. The world tends to even out at some point, and I have a good feeling about what I see and how certain players are performing. It's time to get back in the winner's circle with an excellent on-site week featuring guys who know how to play in this corner of the country.

Outright Winners - Travelers Championship

You will need scoring this week and a player who can stare down Scheffler. Viktor Hovland can do both and proved it by beating the world number one by two shots at Oakmont. Hovland shared with the media in Pennsylvania that he is close. One of the most confident players on TOUR when he’s trending, I love his fit this week. Viktor was third in the field on approach and second T2G at the US Open. The putter was only positive for two rounds in Pittsburgh. Get the flatstick going in Hartford, and he’ll have another trophy at home. Viktor Hovland +3300 (BM)

Nick Taylor plays well on shorter (positional) courses. Trending after a fourth-place finish at The Memorial, Taylor has won at Pebble Beach, Oakdale Golf and Country Club (RBC Canadian Open), and Waialae Country Club (2025). A final round closer in every way, take Taylor while his putter is hot, and the venue suits his stellar/career form. Nick Taylor +10000 (FD)

Home sweet home

For the fourth time in six weeks, we are covering a major championship. The KPMG Women's PGA Championship is taking place at the PGA of America's new home in Frisco, Texas. Fields Ranch is home to 36 holes of Texas terrain. The West Course was designed by Beau Welling and the East Course by Gil Hanse. Hanse's creation is the championship venue and one that has already hosted the KitchenAid Senior PGA Championship (2024) and future host of the Men's PGA Championship (2027, 2034) and a Ryder Cup someday! More Senior and Women's PGA Championships are also on the books. When the PGA of America moved its headquarters from Palm Beach Gardens, Florida, to Frisco, hosting major championships was all part of the plan. With a 500-room Omni Resort on property and plenty of space, let's see if the planners have done their job.

Twenty-five of the top 25 in the Rolex World Rankings are coming to HQ. The entire field of 156 will be cut to the low 70 and ties after 36 holes. Those women who play on the weekend will compete for over $10 million. The official amount will be announced on Sunday. Ten years ago, KPMG stepped up big time and elevated this event. Since their support started, we have seen a significant increase in prize money, venue prestige, and championship caliber golf and coverage. The LPGA owes a debt of gratitude to the PGA and USGA (Women’s Open). These are the two best women's majors by far. AIG stepped up and supported the Women's Open, but domestically, these are the two biggest events on the annual LPGA schedule.

KPMG Women's PGA Championship starts in...

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Fields Ranch East will be under great scrutiny. No offense to the Senior PGA, but this is the first time Frisco will draw a decent television audience. As such, the critics will be ready if Gil Hanse's design does not meet championship standards. Don't get me wrong, no pundit is going to point out the differences between the East Course and Hanse's restoration work at Oakmont, but with a PGA Championship coming in two years, lots of eyes will be on the East. Many times, when we head to a new tour venue, the facility has some history. This course just opened in 2023! North Texas has some rough terrain, and Gil took advantage of the topography. The par 72 scorecard measures 6,604 yards officially. The East Course also has the standard allotment of 3s (4), 4s (10), and 5s (4). The average par 4 is under 400 yards, and with all of the heat in Texas, it should play a little shorter with roll.

The region has seen some rain, but nothing like the upper midwest and northeast. Covered in Bermudagrass, the routing has 96 bunkers and 45-yard-wide fairways. Yes, 45 yards wide! There’s a reason for it; not far outside the fairway is a bunch of brush. Get far offline and you’ll be reloading. The average green size is 7,300 sq/ft. We know Hanse has a knack for developing/enhancing great championship venues, so what's the trick here? I'm sure it will be tough to see on TV before play, but I have been to Frisco. A picture cannot capture the landscape. There are hills everywhere, along with a creek that winds its way through more than a dozen holes. Holes go up and down, and Gil gives you tons of risk-reward decision-making moments throughout. Unlike Oakmont, the women will be able to attack this place.

Richard Bland won the KitchenAid Senior PGA last year at 17 under par. Thirty-three players finished the week under par for 72 holes, and the cut was three over par. Only one player (Greg Chalmers) fired four rounds in the 60s. I think the women will have a similar scoring breakdown come Sunday. I can see the winner finishing in the 12-15 under par range, while the cut to play the weekend is at even par or a little higher. Ten PGA/LPGA Professionals have qualified to join the field of 156. Much like the 20 men who made it to Quail Hollow, the ladies have achieved a lifelong goal. I wouldn't be surprised to see a couple of them make the cut. After all, this is their home, and I'm sure they have seen the course before this past Monday.

Texas terrain

The forecast for Frisco is going to come up in the coverage. Much like last week, Fields Ranch East does not have any trees. We will need the shade. Oakmont players needed it to avoid the rain; the women will be looking for relief from the Texas heat! High temperatures will be in the mid-90s for all four rounds, and there's no rain in the forecast. Most think Texas is flat, but it's not. The East Course is an up-and-down walk that covers five-plus miles. Players must manage their recovery and energy levels this week. That heat and humidity will also put a strain on each player mentally. No course knowledge, oppressive heat, and a championship atmosphere. My number one priority when picking a winner is finding those who have proven they can handle all of the above.

I've mentioned this on several occasions, but when the tour heads to a brand-new venue, I always love favoring the better putters. The KPMG has at least 140 rookies in the 156-player field who have never even been on the property. Great putters can do two things: control speed and read greens. Gil has given us an incredible set of green complexes at the East Course. Players will be challenged reading these surfaces and lag putting in the arid conditions. Only six of the top 17 players on the odds board are inside the top 15 for strokes gained putting on tour. That short list has a huge advantage this week. The best players who can putt are the foundation of my betting card.

Upon first inspection, Gil gives you massive landing areas off the tee on this course. As a good rule of thumb, when you see wide fairways, be prepared for some interesting green complexes. It's all about approach angles on the East Course. Hitting the correct side of the fairway so you can create an advantage on approach is a huge key to this design. Strokes gained off the tee is important, along with total driving. The best drivers hit the ball long and straight OTT. The strokes gained driving measure gives an advantage to the longer hitter. Players who can attack these fairways by hitting it long and selecting the correct side will be able to separate.

Getting back to the green complexes, Hanse has emphasized a specific need for creativity around the greens. This course is two years old. The lies are tight and tricky. Similar to the PGA TOUR, most elite ball strikers are not the best short game artists. Only one player who is in the top 10 on the betting board is inside the top 40 for strokes gained around the green. Gil's green surrounds are really good here. Of all his design traits, the areas that define each putting surface are his specialty. Hanse has created a championship venue. What it lacks in history, it more than makes up for in subtlety. Great short game players not only see multiple ways to get up and down, but they can perform all the different variations as well.

I'm getting to the iron's last and that's far different than most weeks on either tour. Approach game counts here, but I'm viewing that skill as more of the floor than a ceiling. This is a major championship. The best approach players will all contend. What separates them will be the skills I specifically defined above. I've added in scrambling, par 4 scoring, and bogey avoidance. A great birdie-to-bogey ratio and birdie or better percentage helps too. You certainly have to be well-rounded at a brand-new venue. It has been a rough spring in Texas, but these turf conditions still show some bounce. Get ready for a different style of American major championship. No trees, tons of ground game, and great scoring volatility. If I didn't know any better, I'd think we're back in Pittsburgh... if that's the case, this week's JJ Spaun is listed below.

Outright winners - KPMG Women's PGA Championship

Fourteenth at the Chevron Championship and runner-up at the US Open, Nelly Korda is circling the winner's... circle. The 2021 KPMG winner is built for this championship. Drive it great and score from close range. Korda's short game was slightly off to start the season, but she finished last year ranked first in SG:ARG. No wins in 2025, that streak is going to end this week in Frisco. First on the LPGA in driving, BoB%, birdie-to-bogey ratio, and strokes gained scoring, this is the world’s number one player. Nelly Korda +1100 (B3)

Angel Yin is developing a reputation as a big game hunter. A win to her credit already this year, she finished thirteenth at the Chevron and ninth at the US Open. In both cases, she entered the weekend with a chance to win. The reason she climbs leaderboards in the majors is her putter. The best flatsticker in the field, Angel is heavenly on the greens. The short game is also top 10 in the field. Need scoring, Yin is ranked top 5 in this group for BoB%, SG:Score, Par 4s, and birdie to bogey ratio. Angel Yin +3500 (DK)

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