Hey Jude

Before we begin the FedEx Cup playoffs, let's take a moment to celebrate our ninth win of the season. In one of the wildest Sundays I can remember on the PGA TOUR, Aaron Rai was four strokes behind Max Greyserman with just five holes left to play at the Wyndham Championship. The tournament began with nearly six inches of rain and the entire day canceled on Thursday. Round one didn't finish until Saturday morning and rounds two, three, and four were all finished on Sunday. Well almost finished, thanks Matt Kuchar! When that humidity settled, Rai ripped a laser like iron approach on 18 to five feet and made the final putt to secure a two-stroke victory.

Matt Kuchar finished his round Monday morning in six minutes. Once that happened, the Wyndham was over and the top 70 and ties were all invited to the FedEx St. Jude Championship. All 70 have RSVP's positively and round one of the playoffs will take place in Memphis, Tennessee for the third year in a row. Our host venue is no stranger to high level golf, TPC Southwind is prepared to cut an elite field nearly in half (70 down to 50). Memphis has hosted the PGA TOUR for quite some time. As a reward to their passionate crowds and FedEx's money, what was a regular TOUR stop has been elevated over time.

• St. Jude Classic 1989 - 2018
• WGC Invitational 2019 - 2021
• FedEx St. Jude Championship 2022...

FedEx St. Jude Championship starts in...

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Walking in Memphis

TPC Southwind is a stern test. Walking the grounds this week, you can really see how much these players treat this place with respect. The par 70 layout covers 7,243 yards of Zoysia and Champion Bermudgrass. While it was a weekly TOUR stop, the average winning score was 14 under par. Soft summer conditions and a spot on the schedule a week before the US Open never attracted the strongest fields. All of that changed in 2019 when the world's elite started dropping in. The average winning score jumped to 16 under par and the average pre-tournament winner's odds in the last five editions is only +3000 (30-1). TPC Southwind is ready to challenge these guys to get (or stay) inside the top 50.

Eleven holes have water in play including four of the last five and the course displays 75 bunkers. I heard it in the press conferences, everyone is talking about the condition of the course and how it will play like a typical Southwind, "spongy." Not your average TPC, this course takes serious T2G work. The top 70 on the FEC points list are here and they want a large piece of the $20 million. It's been almost two months since we handed out an elevated purse at the Travelers. Another similarity to Travelers week is the heat! It's warm down in Memphis. Players will feel fatigued over four days playing in these conditions.

The forecast only calls for thunderstorms in the afternoons. That makes sense considering the heat and humidity levels I'm feeling. The wind should stay in the single digits, and although that won't keep us any cooler, it will make it easier for the field to hit their targets. After all, TPC Southwind is a target rich environment. The average green size is just 4,300 sq/ft and players hit well below the PGA TOUR average in competition. Driving accuracy also falls below the TOUR average. Nine holes have a birdie rate over 15% and 10 holes have a bogey rate over that same value. The rough is uniform Bermudagrass. That means trouble as when it looks good that means the ball will drop straight to the bottom.

Getting out will cause a serious amount of strife. Not just on approach, but also from around these green complexes. With just two par 5s, there aren't a lot of places to make easy birdies. Seven of the 12 par 4s are over 450 yards. Before I make this sound too hard, the best of 2024 are here and look primed to play. Xander Schauffele comes in with two majors, most recently at Royal Troon. Scottie Scheffler arrives waiting to do one thing he has not been able to pull off since this historic run began two years ago; win the FedEx Cup. Scheffler has been poised entering East Lake each of the last two seasons and lost.

I'm watching a couple of middle tier guys who look really good like Sungjae Im and Tony Finau stripe it on the practice range. The top 70 really pushes the playoff narrative versus 125. This field is elite and ready. They better be, 20 are going home after Sunday until the fall or even next year. With signature status on the line, you better believe these guys ranked above 50 will be fighting. Jordan Spieth and Viktor Hovland need a serious finish to even get close to Colorado and the BMW Championship. A great test with tons on the line, I cannot wait for tomorrow and watch it get started...

Read The Line recap 🗞️ Lucas Glover won for the second week in a row a year ago in a playoff over Patrick Cantlay. Rory McIlroy and Tommy Fleetwood were a close T3. Lucas led the field at Wyndham with his irons and putter. Glover’s St. Jude was a well-rounded performance. TPC Southwind tests all elements of your game. Glover's biggest gains came around the green and putting. Both were over three strokes. Keep that in mind when everyone just favors balls striking. Southwind does require some scoring from short range.

Champion Bermuda

This weather down in Memphis is exactly why they use Bermudagrass on the greens and Zoysia in the fairways. Not only can they handle the heat and humidity, it almost looks as if they thrive in it! The grounds are perked up and ready for this elite event. The guys will need to be on their game. Ironically, the 3M Open and Wyndham Championship are pretty valuable previews for TPC Southwind. Only problem is, most of the super elite players didn't compete in them. Not only that, they haven't in years past. The good news is since changing to an elevated event in 2019, the St. Jude has a valuable history we can use to our advantage.

Like so many other tough tests, contenders gain here against the field with their iron game. The winners over the last decade picked up over six strokes on the field. Over two-thirds of those approaches come in from 125-200 yards. It doesn’t take a fancy wedge game or long iron acumen to excel here. Just do your job with the mid-irons and you’ll differentiate from the field. Keep in mind, 4,300 sq/ft on average is small. If you hit the GIRs, you will have plenty of birdie chances. Many of the greens sit at funny angles from the fairway. I spoke with PGA TOUR alumni Jay Delsing who owns the course record 61 (1993). He felt this course was great at making you question your approach alignment between the design features and routing.

Outside of the penalty areas off the tee, this is one place that guys can get ahead. Previous winners have come in with fantastic approach form. We are jumping on a couple of those guys just as we did going into Wyndham. Scottie Scheffler will be tough to beat as total driving and mid-iron play is pretty much his wheelhouse. My one hope is the Bermudagrass greens. The grain can give him fits and we can squeak out a win. Going off at less than +400 is a no-bet for me against this elite field. The greens at TPC Southwind lack character. This will help more of the field capitalize on their birdie efforts. That sounds like it may help Scottie too, but the more players who can keep up with him, the better.

We always analyze the scorecard and at Southwind I see two edges. The first is the 12 par 4s. Making birdies on these holes with your mid-iron game will be the most direct path to victory. Our last 10 winners gained an average of nine strokes on the field with their par 4 scoring. Not one of these mundane middle length 4s really stand out. None are over 500 yards and unless they move a tee box, they cannot be driven from the tee. They provide just a ton of “stock” scoring chances. Here’s where the complement of hitting fairways and GIRs really counts. The recent TPC Southwind leaderboards are littered with guys who can do just that and putt slightly above the field average.

The second key is determining who the best par 70 Bermudagrass scorers are. This research method worked at Wyndham (and the John Deere). Par 70/71 courses are different. Players who excel without a full complement of four par 5s are the focus. Rory leads that list over Scottie. Some of the others litter our outright card. One last feature of tour leans is hitting fairways. It sounds obvious to miss the water, but the real reason for bringing this up is the difference on approach from Bermuda rough versus the Zoysia grass fairways. Great ball strikers love Zoysia because the ball sits up.

It allows the true T2G guys to separate because the contact is so clean. That’s why you see the best iron players excel here, East Lake, Valhalla, etc. Conversely, Bermudagrass rough is as unpredictable as wire grass. That’s a bit of hyperbole, but the truth is these guys hate Bermuda rough. The ball drops to the bottom and it becomes impossible to control spin and trajectory. Lose those two factors and you find the ball flying all sorts of different distances. Guys who hit the fairway and stay out of the wiry Bermuda can separate effectively in this field. Driving distance hovers right around the TOUR average at TPC Southwind for this reason. Bombers will always have an edge if they hit the fairway, but courses like this one give the medium hitters a genuine opportunity to get in the mix.

Scottie Scheffler will be the number one seed at East Lake. Xander most likely holds on to the number two spot, but the rest is really up for grabs. Top 50 is so important when it comes to that signature status. Especially for the middle tier guys. Watch out for players in that 50-70 range. I believe they will bring a birdie or bust mentality to the course. They have so much more to gain (than lose) by getting in. Their card is secure for 2025. I think this format only gets better over time as the guys realize the importance of each round. Balance that card with guys across all levels of FEC incentives and there will be a tremendous opportunity for us to win one more time this season.

Outright Winners - FedEx St. Jude Championship

Patrick Cantlay gained over six strokes against the field at Royal Troon on approach. He also played in the bad weather wave. Cantlay is the 2021 FedEx Cup Champion and owns three playoff wins. Patrick has gained with his putter is six of his last eight starts. The runner-up at TPC Southwind last year, Cantlay is the perfect positional golf course player. Patrick has finished top 10 in the FEC points standings each of the last three years. Patrick Cantlay +2500

Justin Thomas is a FedEx Cup Champion and the feature of my Monday Odds Drop article. A great Monday value at +5000! A Kentucky native, he is very comfortable with the agronomy at TPC Southwind. Thomas won the 2020 WGC event at Southwind against an elite field. In four trips to this TPC, he has a stroke average under 68. The best of anyone with four starts or more in the field. Last time he played in the region, he finished eighth at the PGA Championship. Worried about the putter? JT has gained on the greens in three straight events. Justin Thomas +5000

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Inside the ropes at the 2023 Genesis Invitational

Hall of Fame collection 🥇🥈🥉

Saturday morning, we struck gold again when Lydia Ko earned us our eighth victory of the season. The native New Zealander not only grabbed gold in Paris, but she earned her way into the LPGA Hall of Fame with her win! That's quite the accomplishment considering Ko is just 27 years old. The medal narrative we believed in came true when Lydia finished her collection. That's right, Ko captured silver in Rio (2016), bronze in Japan (2021), and now owns gold thanks to her performance in Paris. Outside of a couple other historic records in golf, that might just be the coolest accomplishment a player could do in their first three tries.

Following a limited field event in Paris, the LPGA stars prepare for the ISPS Handa Women's Scottish Open. A field of 144 LPGA and LET stars have set their eyes on Dundonald Links along the west coast of Scotland. The top 65 and ties will play the weekend and compete for $2 million and a $300,000 first-place check. The Scottish Open became an officially sanctioned LPGA event in 2017. That year it was contested at Dundonald along with 2022 and 2023. Set alongside the Firth of Clyde, we are very familiar with this location and its weather. Just north or Royal Troon on the west coast of Scotland, the event hosts five of the top 10, and 15 of the top 25 in the Rolex World Rankings.

Scottish Open starts in...

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West coast weather

It's tough to pinpoint the forecast, but the weather looks awful for the women along the Ayrshire coast. Make sure you use our real-time weather link below for the best forecast. As of Wednesday morning, it is going to be wet and windy. Rain is predicted all four days with the heaviest precipitation falling on Thursday into Friday. Match that rain up with 20 mph sustained winds and you better know where your golf ball is going. Dundonald Links is a par 72 layout measuring 6,584 yards. Set just 100 yards away from Irvine Bay, the elements will play a huge part in this. Accuracy counts under normal conditions at Dundonald so this should be fun to watch than play.

The LPGA is in Scotland, make sure you make all of your weekend wagers on Wednesday!

Seventy-nine bunkers cover the course, and four holes have water in play. The three previous winning scores at Dundonald Links run from six to 21 under par. I imagine this week will be closer to the six under par score considering the weather which is predicted. This course is not long. The average par 4 is only 386 yards, but based upon the predicted wind direction, a majority of the holes will play into the breeze. Most of the field enjoyed a week off while the Olympics were being played. That might be helpful when you consider the mental and physical challenge that awaits alongside the west coast of Scotland.

How can history help?

I'm treading lightly in Scotland with our betting card this week and keeping it to just four outrights. The forecast calls for weather worse than what we saw at Royal Troon. After watching that field get cut in half based upon tee times, it pays for us to be patient. After all, the AIG Women’s Open is going to St. Andrews next week. A course we are all very familiar with and can predict a winner with great confidence in hopefully more normal conditions. Thankfully, Dundonald was designed for wild weather. There are eight alternative tee boxes the LPGA plans to make us of. With so much variety on teh ground and in the forecast, we must stick with the hot players.

The three previous winners at Dundonald share a couple of common characteristics. Mi Hyang Lee (2017), Ayaka Furue (2022), and Celine Boutier (2023) all hit 79% of their fairways. The course is not long, so accuracy is a premium. Find the fairway is the first key to contending. Alongside each of these exposed seaside fairways are fields of fescue and gorse bushes. Remember Troon, this course is just a couple miles north up the coast. Lee is pretty long, but the other two definitely fit the accuracy off the tee narrative. Only 11 women finished under par in 2017. We have another week like that on our hands so it is best to start with those who can easily approach the green from the fairway.

It takes a well-rounded iron game to accumulate GIRs at Dundonald. The variety of shots is evenly spread from under 100 yards to 175. Those same three winners averaged 80% of their greens in regulation. If you look a little deeper, the last two top 10s also hit 80% of their GIRs. I expect the weather to lower this number slightly, but the course is just not that hard. Ayaka Furue shot 21 under par the year she won averaging 208 yards off the tee! Get it in play and attack with your irons.

The four par 5s average 505 yards in length. Those same two top 10s from the last couple of years played the 5s at a stroke average of 4.55. If the conditions get crazy, this is one place you will be able to reliably score. The two par 5s on the front nine play into the wind and the two on the back downwind. Scoring will take some serious wedge work. I like players who can scramble this week. Not just to save par, but even more so to attack the short holes from awkward approach lengths. The last two top 10s averaged a 60% successful scrambling rate. Short game skills always help in questionable weather so picking the players who can get creative in these conditions from close range is a bonus.

The three winners all averaged under 30 putts per round. You can make birdies and better putters on slow; links greens will have an advantage. We saw many of the men struggling to adjust in the Scottish and British Opens. This will happen again for average putters. I am picking ladies who have proven they can figure it out with the flatstick in Europe. The Olympics were a nice warm-up for the Scottish and AIG Open. Le Golf National forced the players to plan and execute under tremendous pressure. We have two wins in the last three weeks and Andrea Lee led the Portland Classic after 54-holes. Let's keep the run going and grab another gold on one of golf's original coasts in Scotland.

Outright winners - Scottish Open

Ally Ewing finished top 10 in the Scottish Open and Women's Open last year. Links golf requires ball striking and Ewing brings it. Ewing is ranked sixth in the field T2G. When the weather gets bad, she knows where her golf ball is going. Ally's strength is hitting GIRs and converting with the putter. She's ranked top 10 in the field for both. A great par 5 player, Ewing holds tremendous value in the 20s as an equally great ball striker to the women below her on the board, Ally Ewing +2500

We need a European on the outright card who has a great history here; that's Madelene Sagstrom. If you need to save strokes in bad weather, pick great putters. Sagstrom is ranked FIRST in the field for strokes gained putting. After the Cognizant was stolen from us by Rose Zhang, I'm going back to Madelene on another course where she has finished ninth and fourteenth the last two years. Dundonald provides great drivers an edge. Sags can bomb it accurately. She is ranked top 15 on the tour in total driving. Madelene Sagstrom +4000

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