A strong pair

Avid readers of Read The Line know some Sundays are better than others. We have backed Justin Thomas three times this season (API, PLAYERS, Masters) only to watch him win Sunday in Hilton Head. If that wasn't hard enough to digest, our +4000 LPGA outright Akie Iwai bogeyed the seventy-second hole in Los Angeles to lose. Most might need a moment to dust themselves off and stand back up. We don't have a moment and the dust displays character. While the LPGA hosts their first major championship of the season in Houston, Texas, the PGA TOUR visits the bayou for a very unique event, The Zurich Classic.

Eighty teams are entered in the largest field of the season. Just seven of the top 25 in the OWGR are on hand to compete for $8 million. The top 33 teams and ties can compete over the weekend. After two straight small field events, the guys have their "cutline" hands full. Less than 40% of the teams will make the weekend. The Zurich is the toughest 36-hole cut on TOUR. Considering the team format and venue, we will see a lot of volatility at TPC Louisiana.

Double Jeopardy

A large part of successfully betting the Zurich Classic is understanding the format. This is not a regular 72-hole stroke play event. Eighty teams of two will compete in a Fourball (better ball of partners) format on Thursday in round one. On Friday, the teams switch to Foursomes (alternate shot). Those who make the cut and compete over the weekend for the first-place prize of $1.33 million dollars (each) will play the same two formats again. Saturday is Fourball, and Sunday is Foursomes. These are the same two team formats you will see at the Ryder Cup in September.

The team format began at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans in 2017. Since then, the average winning score is 26 under par. With two separate formats, it is important to note how the winners got there. The last six winners average 19 under par in the Fourball format and seven under par in Foursomes. Find the right alternate shot combination and you can make some serious cash. It's tough for a longshot to win in individual stroke play. Give everyone a partner, and the elite tend to take the title. The average winner’s pre-tournament odds of the seven champion teams is +3100. Four of the last five winners have held pre-tournament odds under +1600!

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Keith's Keys 🗞️ A couple of key skills you can claim as your own at the water cooler and cocktail party conversations. You can find complete explanations for each in the betting breakdown. Inside 10 feet: Both formats place a little extra pressure on the short putts. No player wants to let their partner down and to keep pace, you'll need to make the close ones all week. Complementary saves: Alternate shot requires two players to perform when it is their time. Not all shots will be played from a great lie, so when it is you turn, the best teams will be able to perform from where their partner left them. Birdie barrage: The average winning score in this event goes below 25 under par. Just keep making birdies.

We started out with some wet weather this week in Avondale, Louisiana. Just under a half an inch of rain fell across Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. Enough to soften the surfaces and allow for even better scoring. The temperature will climb into the high 80s each day and there's less than a 10% chance the rain continues throughout the tournament. Last year, the wind was wild down in the bayou. We expect the sustained breeze to just barely touch double digits all four days. The wind will be out of the south, southeast and blow 8-10 mph. That's great news since TPC Louisiana has 106 bunkers and eight holes where water comes into play.

Zurich Classic starts in...

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TPC Louisiana has been the host venue dating back to 2005. Every team edition has been played here. The par 72 layout covers 7,425 yards. For the second week in a row, we have Pete Dye's diabolical mind to contend with. The most noticeable feature of this flat setting are the bunkers. In stark contrast to one another, you will see some of the largest and smallest sand hazards on TOUR. The greens are the fifth smallest on the PGA TOUR at an average of 5,225 sq/ft. Of course, these will look huge compared to the tiny targets at Harbour Town. Poa trivialis covers these putting surfaces, and they are super smooth according to my sources on-site.

There's a fair amount of drama in this design. We have four par 4s over 470 yards and the average par 3 is 215 yards! The final three holes have water in play to catch your attention. Looking to score, how about the four par 4s under 400 yards and four par 5s. Good luck finishing any round on time in foursomes and with 160 players in the field. Even though it is a tough test, team scoring pushes that cutline pretty deep. The average score to get inside the top 33 and ties is 7.4 under par. Combine the weather, turf conditions, and the baseline ability of 50% of this field to go low with a partner and Las Vegas has the final score over/under at -26.5.

I opened with how heartbreak awaits every Sunday afternoon. So why get into a wild partners event. Truth is, 50% of this field has no chance. Look at some of these teams. Coupled with some of the recent trends on TOUR I have seen on-site and there's an edge. We all love to compete; that's why you read the line, and I write it. It's time to win and you can't do that if you don't bet down in the bayou...

Alternate path

I can narrow down the field to the best birdie makers and ball strikers, but in the end the biggest intangible is team chemistry on the course. We have witnessed it each year starting with the first title when Jonas Blixt and Cam Smith won. The +10000 long shots blended their skill set perfectly to take home the trophy. Consider the defending champions Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry. Two very good friends who also bring the best out of each other on the golf course. Think about the partner events you have played in personally. What complements your game? Those pairings hold the biggest advantage in this field.

I see these guys interact with one another all around various venues. After four years, I can really start to tell who gets along with whom. The better your team chemistry, the better your chances are to perform. This is exactly why Tiger Woods never had a good Ryder Cup partner. How hard would it be to pair with Woods and live with the fear of letting him down. Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry aren't worried about that. Our outrights will lead the field in strokes gained camaraderie. A couple of these pairings are new and I will lean on my experience at The Masters, THE PLAYERS, four signature events, and a couple more regular TOUR events in 2025 to decide who has the best "fit."

Our outrights will also be birdie machines. The best Fourball players are aggressive scorers. That's not always the best type of player for individual stroke-play events, but in this format, give me two guys who average more than four birdies per round. I want guys who lead the TOUR in opportunities gained and GIRs. Who tends to go for the par 5s in two and who can putt. Look at some of the recent winners. Cam Smith has won this event twice, Billy Horschel who can putt plays well here, and how about the Canadians, Hadwin and Taylor.

We have four par 5s and four par 4s under 400 yards. Those eight holes require solid scrambling to score. Short game skill will lead to birdies in bunches. Guys who build their weekly birdie average by pitching the ball and using their wedges adeptly. A little acumen from close range and you can make more sub-par scores than a majority of the field. With four par 4s under 400 yards these guys will be greenside for eight super scoring chances. Pair some serious pitching and chipping with a consistent ability to make putts inside 10 feet. That leads me to my secret for really running up that leaderboard.

The "Golf Pro Betting Show" is broadcast live every TUESDAY afternoon at 3:00pm ET. Keith and DFS expert Matt Wiley from Run Pure Sports discuss every edge you need to have a winning week! Click to watch

The winning teams average seven under par for 36-holes of Foursomes or alternate shot. Place the best iron player on the odd holes and your elite driver on the even ones. The last three winners have been better than eight under par for those two tournament rounds. If you want to win, you need a team that can work together and score in this format. Teams used to target even par as a good score for alternate shot and now these guys are shooting sub-70. The best path to making the cut is going low on Friday when you only get to hit every other shot. The traits needed to play well when you have to watch half the time really count. The guy who has to knock in that testy five-footer did not hit the approach putt or chip prior to his turn. Without any consistent feel, you must make your short putts. We see it year after year.

Finding the correct chemistry in Creole country is hard. We have a successful plan to build out a winning card. Combine our on-site and LPGA experience and I would not be surprised if the golf gods give us something special on Sunday.

Outright Winners - Zurich Classic

Take the plunge

We all double-dipped last year at the Chevron Championship. Nelly Korda took home the win for us, and a sweet Scottie-Nelly double outright parlay! The seven-time winner of 2024 has yet to win in 2025. Sound familiar Scottie? The LPGA has now played three out of the last four weeks, so the women are warmed up for the first major championship of the season. What was the Dinah Shore and played in Palm Springs, transitioned to the Chevron Championship and with the new sponsor headed to Texas. Don't worry, Billy Bob and the Landman extras aren't hosting the tournament. We've had two editions in the Woodlands, Texas and Lilia Vu won the first and Korda took the plunge one year ago.

A field of 132 players is ready to compete for the jump off that newly famous dock. Twenty-four of the top 25 in the Rolex World Rankings are on hand and the top 65 and ties play the weekend for $8 million. Our winner gets $1.2 million, wet, and a nice terrycloth robe. It's no green jacket, but I gather it feels nice after you jump in a lake! The venue has 36-holes, and the women will play the Nicklaus Signature Course. Although it sounds kind of commercial, this is a very nice course and facility. The longest course of the season, the scorecard reads par 72 and has been lengthened another 22 yards to 6,911 total. I wonder if the women will cross the 7k yard threshold in the coming years?

Chevron Championship starts in...

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Our weather for the week looks less than spectacular. Temperatures will be warm and reach into the high 80s each day, but there will be rain early in the week and into rounds one and two. Alongside the precipitation, there will be wind. The name Carlton Woods inspires a thought of tree-lined fairways. The Nicklaus Course has some, but this is Texas, and everything is big in the Lone Star state. The golf course covers an immense piece of property, and the trees are set back. This creates many lanes of wide-open space. One great example of this is the arena where nine and 18 are located. The two come into the clubhouse going south separated by a lake.

Three of the four par 3s has water in play, and the layout features 62 bunkers. The average winning score in two editions is -11.5 under par. There's some trouble lurking and you cannot contend if you don't challenge this course off the tee. Seven of the 10 par 4s are over 400 yards in length. That's easily double the weekly LPGA allotment. The average par 5 is 528 yards and two of those are protected by penalty areas. I spent a week at the Nicklaus Course in 2014 for the USGA Junior Championship. I know this course and its quirks very well. Navigating around each turn takes a little local knowledge. Everyone on our card has competed here in at least one of the two editions.

Everything's bigger in Texas... aside from the longest course on tour, these are some of the largest green surfaces at 6,800 sq/ft (on average). Covered in Bermudagrass, the best "southern putters" will have an advantage over the competition. Twenty-one women in the field reside in Texas and all eight winners from this season have made the trek to just north of Houston. Nineteen players in the field (of 132) have earned a top 10 at Carlton Woods. Of those, only Nelly Korda and A Lim Kim have two top 10s! We will need more history at this venue before we know how predictive a course this can be. In the meantime, I'm using my local knowledge of the venue and our recent contenders on tour to build a terrific card.

Proximity + putting

When you walk (or watch) the Nicklaus Signature Course at Carlton Woods you are immediately impressed by the sheer size of the venue. No expense was spared in the infrastructure but just imagine what it takes to cover nearly 7,000 yards of competitive turf from a player's perspective. Each woman and her coach need a game plan for this major championship. We do have two years of data to help us develop a model contender. A quick glance at the two past champions and we know it can be done in multiple ways. Nelly Korda is the archetype ball striker. When Korda captured the trophy last year, it was for her fifth win in a row. She was playing at the height of her power.

Lilia Vu (2023) wins with her short game and putter. A two-time major champion that season, she can score from close range. A signature ball striker and a Seve short game artist. If we just stopped there, we might as well get out the blindfold and dart board. By examining the last two top 10s, there are some significant trends. The first of those starts on the putting surfaces. I mentioned in the course preview above; these are very large greens. That may help the field hit more GIRs, but it doesn't promote a ton of successful putting stats. Three putting around the Nicklaus Course is very common and will determine your ability to contend come Sunday. Much like the PGA TOUR, putting is a much more selective skill on tour than ball striking.

The best way to lower your putts per round average is to hit the ball closer to the pin. Proximity to hole will separate this field significantly. That sounds obvious, but not every course places such a weight on flatstick skill. You always want to knock it close, but these green complexes are far too undulating for these women at 7,000 yards. Those characteristics place tremendous pressure on these two skills and the top pool of contenders prove it. Both top 10s gained an average of nearly five strokes on approach and another five putting.

There are a couple ways you can ease the approach/putter burden. The Nicklaus Course has 35 acres of fairway. By comparison, that is a very fair amount of short grass to find off the tee. If you can send it with your driver and keep it inside the rough, those approaches get a lot shorter. It has been raining off and, on all week, (+.25") so you cannot expect much roll out. Carry distance with your driver will count more than usual. The power players who can find the fairway will put far less pressure on their putting by creating the closet approach opportunities.

LPGA players tend to be far more accurate than PGA TOUR players at the elite level. They hit more fairways and slightly more GIRs. As such, their scrambling ability does not get tested as often as their male counterparts. One of the main reasons Nelly went on that incredible spring run last year was her ability to score from around the green. A power player like Korda with so much touch showed us that combination can become unstoppable. Short game skill is not the number one priority this week, but it will help you differentiate from the field in two ways. First, there will be times when you need to save par.

The second short game separation factor comes on these par 5s. Par 3 and 4 scoring is very difficult at Carlton Woods. Play those 14 holes even par for four days and you will be inside the top 10 by the end of the week with one caveat. You must capitalize on the par 5s. The four 5s have an average length of 528 yards. Considering the wet conditions, this makes all of them three shot holes for a vast majority of the field. Those third shots really count and will be played from 50 yards and in. Players who can score from this range have a great advantage. I know week after week some of these skills seem redundant but take a step back. This is a MAJOR championship.

Carlton Woods is testing in order of importance, putting acumen, approach accuracy, power, and touch. Sounds like a true well-rounded test. The best betting options will need a positive birdie to bogey ratio and some experience performing under great pressure. The weather will be a distraction to start the week, and for those who make the weekend and contend their peers will then occupy their attention. Fans miss Mission Hills, but if you love a major test then the move to Texas was a good upgrade. Not all major venues have a storied history. We've seen two great championships take place here and I cannot wait to watch another.

Outright winners - Chevron Championship

Second at the Match Play and third in Los Angeles, Lauren Coughlin is confident heading into the Chevron Championship. Considering she finished third at Carlton Woods last year, this week is set up to be special. Accurate OTT and on approach all we need is to keep that putter rolling like it has for the past two starts. Lauren Coughlin +2800

The runner-up in 2023, Angel Yin lost in a playoff to Lilia Vu. Once just a great putter, Yin has increased her ball striking acumen and now can play T2G and score. A win already in 2025 where she lapped the field, Yin wants revenge at the Chevron. We know putting is a huge edge, and based upon her recent results from the full swing, I love her chances to avenge 2023. Angel Yin +3300

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