Genesis story

Like many of you, I woke up early on Sunday morning to watch golf. As I rolled over to get out of bed, I picked up my phone. It was the obligatory (immediate) international leaderboard check. A common tradition for the RTL community as the LPGA plays eight events overnight throughout the year. One quick prayer, and then slide up the standings. Oh wow! The Scottish was going well and Brooke Henderson was making a run in France. Two eagles on her front nine, one a hole-in-one, and the tournament leader, Haeran Ryu, was in reach. Henderson tied the leaders on 16 and everything was starting to unfold for our 66-1 longshot.

Then it happened, an awful three-putt on the 71st hole. Talk about bad timing, this was starting to look like all too familiar. Henderson fought back with her third eagle of the day on 18 to send the Evian into a playoff. A wayward drive on the simple 18th hole and Ryu had the clear advantage. For the second year in a row, we lost in a playoff at the women’s fourth major championship. It was RTL’s TENTH outright RUNNER-UP of the year.

Although the ending was unfortunate, the timing was perfect. As the women concluded, the lead pack at the Scottish Open was teeing off. Wyndham Clark, Tom Kim, and Matt Fitzpatrick were all in the mix. Could we close, or was it going to be another agonizing Sunday afternoon? A week after Tom Kim let us down at the Deere, we went back to the well and it paid off. A deep ticket at +8600, the win was worth celebrating. Our fourth outright in 2026, TK not only gives us some momentum heading into The Open, but some extra bankroll as well!

A field of 156 players is set to embark on Great Britain’s toughest links test; Royal Birkdale for the 154^th Open Championship. The 11^th time hosting The Open, where Birkdale lacks in unique holes, it more than makes up for it in championship caliber. A beautiful golfing property along the western shore of England, the setting looks like the rolling waves of the sea extend inland across the course. Between the dune crests are framed fairways of gorgeous amber grass burnt and baked by the recent English weather. A hall of fame list of former champions, five of the nine former Birkdale winners have won back to back Claret Jugs with Royal Birkdale as a part of the two wins. Pretty amazing and a tell tale sign that if you can win at Royal Birkdale, you are a very good links golfer!

The low 70 and ties play the weekend in this major championship. Scottie Scheffler is the defending champion, so he loves that note about winning back to back Opens at Birkdale. For the first time in four years, Scottie did not play the weekend in a professional tournament. Scheffler’s streak of 78 successful cuts ended in Scotland. Of note, Matt Fitzpatrick is now the cut streak leader at 28 in a row. The official purse has been raised to $17.75 million with a winner's check of $3.2 million given out. For reference, the purse at Royal Portrush was $17 million and Scottie was give a check of $3.1 million for earning the title Champion Golfer of the Year!

The Open Championship starts in...

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Birkdale's new blueprint

The par 70 scorecard has been significantly altered. While some would have you believe the course renovation is the biggest difference between 2017 and today, I disagree. I believe it will be the weather. More on the forecast in a moment; the turf conditions are extremely firm and fast. Few venues in the United States could rival the British Isles for firmness with this combination of drought and heat. The Birkdale bounce will be real. To compound the major challenge, Royal Birkdale has modified five holes significantly. Pundits might pose that all 18 holes have been touched in some way; I'm focused on the five major changes and the turf. The fifth hole has been updated to become a modern drivable par 4. No longer a blind tee shot, players are being lured into using a driver. What probably will be then fans’ favorite hole by the end of the week, the new collection of sand and water surrounding this putting surface will lead to an infinite number of outcomes. Get the woods out, guys, and let it rip. I cannot wait to watch this update.
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The seventh hole renovation reminds me of other memorable par 3s in the Rota. A beefier "Postage Stamp," players who miss this putting surface will be sorry. The core of the changes to Royal Birkdale come on holes 14 and 15. The original fourteenth hole has been eliminated. It has been replaced by the old 15th hole and lengthened by some 60+ yards. Now a 600-yard par 5, it is the first par 5 players face if they start on the first tee! The 15th hole is now a 240-yard par 3. A course evolution to counter the modern professional competitor? Long iron play is still golf's #1 separating skill. The closing 18th has been updated as well. A tougher test to finish the round, or the week, we all sincerely hope it comes into play on Sunday.

The wind forecast is pretty tame for the Open Championship. What will trouble the guys is the compass movement of the invisible force. The players have already been complaining that the new practice facility doesn't provide them with a place to prepare for the prevailing wind. Bunch of primadonnas! That sentiment is interesting, unlike any other event this year. Adaptation will be the ultimate differentiator. A player's ability to adjust on the fly, from hole to hole, make decisions based upon instinct and experience will ultimately decide our champion golfer. Royal Birkdale's design continually moves in different directions. Much like a Muirfield, the holes continually turn you around. What amplifies this course vertigo are the dunes. Most fairways sit below the dune ridge. This leaves players in a position where they cannot see very far and feel the wind.
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Nine par 4s in the first 11 holes, be prepared to solicit other ways to score. That par 70 scorecard measuring 7,223 is the shortest of the year in major championships. The course presents 106 penal bunkers. Each fairway moves in one direction or another and both sides are framed by fescue and sand. The R&A has graduated the rough from fairway to fans. The closer you are to the short grass, the less of a penalty. Large misses? Well, this won't be like Shinnecock Hills. Players will be punished in comparison to the measurement of their miss. It's a serious test, and the former Royal Birkdale wall of champions proves it. Who in this field can fill their shoes? Let’s look at the skills they used to win in Southport.

Read The Line media ⤵️

How to win?

What can brown do for you?. It's an endless diatribe of firm and fast media coming out of Southport, England. What's most interesting to me is not the number of times pundits continue to expound upon the dusty turf, but the lack of explanation on how it will change the playability of Royal Birkdale. When predicting winners, agronomy is one of the major factors we analyze week after week. Usually, we are discussing Bermudagrass greens or Zoysia fairways. The texture of the turf in this conversation covers every acre of the property. Golf is one of the few professional games where part of the competition is making the ball stop. Players have been very open in their assessment of the conditions; they cannot make it stop. The Renaissance Club was just a taste; this playing surface will make a Super 8 motel bed mattress seem soft. Trust me. Each competitor's inability to control bounces and breaks will immediately remind us of the patience narrative we hear around the US Open.
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Let's start on approach. Iron play is going to be insanely amplified this week. Take the closest firm conditions comp we have in modern major championship golf, 2018 at Carnoustie or 2006 at Royal Liverpool. 2018? That was Francesco Molinari's swan song over a charging Tiger and Justin Rose. In 2006, Tiger Woods won by two strokes over Chris DiMarco (and the field) by hitting one driver that week. That's a crazy amount of long distance approach shots in 72 holes. If a majority of tee shots play similar to a par 3 target with an iron in hand, approach gets magnified. Combine it with playing from a firm surface in the fairway; how precise is your impact? Only the best iron players will have the ability to control trajectory and spin. Spin will be the separating skill. If you cannot control that first bounce, there will be no long walks with a putter in hand. Each of our outrights is near the top of the SG: APP list. It's paramount to producing scoring chances, and with very little wind, you will need birdies to win.
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Accuracy off the tee will be heavily reliant on strategy. Players are presented with three options off the tee. Play ultra conservative and lay back before the doglegs and bunkering. Position yourself in the intended landing area between the fairway bunkers and give yourself a great angle on approach, or go full send and attack the angles with an eye on giving yourself an advantage by approaching the green surfaces with a wedge in hand. The beauty of Royal Birkdale is that no one strategy alone will do it. I'm fascinated to see how players manage their golf ball from tee to green. Course management and game planning are going to be paramount to success. Most will tell you accuracy is the key off the tee, I believe balancing the risk-reward nature of this design is the talking point. The more accurate you are with your choices, the better, but this OTT conversation is far more complicated than just driving accuracy.
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Most major championship venues make it difficult to pile up GIRs. Hit more than 70% and you are usually in contention. The greens are pretty flat at Royal Birkdale due to the setting. Architects cannot be aggressive in their design features when your links border the Irish Sea. When you consider how flat the greens are, guys are going to wish there were more slopes and swales. Those undulations provide an opportunity to stop the ball. To compound the challenge, the new greens are raised in one way or another. Attacking a flat, pushed-up plateau only increases the difficulty on approach. This is another reason why playability is the most important lens to decipher who will win. What all of this means is that players will miss GIRs; a bunch of them. Go back to Spieth's spectacular bogey on the 13th hole in the final round. The toughest shot he hit was the downhill pitch over a pot bunker to a short-sided pin. I have a strong weight on links scrambling in my research. Short game creativity and performance will separate this field.
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The scoring formula for Royal Birkdale calls for some birdies. Spieth's total from 2017 is the guideline we can go by as Vegas set the over/under at 267.5 (12.5 under par). With no par 5s until the 14th hole, players will need to create opportunities on the 12-par 4s. Aside from par 4 scoring, I also see a need for a little bonus putting. Whether from off the green or on it, players will need to convert a couple of extra feet of putts throughout the week. Adjusting to slower speeds on very firm surfaces is going to be difficult. Scottie Scheffler is great at everything, except putting in Scotland and England. I left Ireland out because we all saw what happened at Royal Portrush. Experience on these surfaces is important and a factor I weighed in more than actual strokes gained putting.
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The stage is set for a great "player's" championship. The Open is my favorite tournament for all of the reasons listed above and more. It forces the best in the world to play golf. A game with equal parts strategy and imagination, no other week presents such an abundance of unbelievable shots. Enjoy every minute of it. This is the epitome of Open Championship golf and for those who love the game, Royal Birkdale is the absolute best venue for the final major championship of the season. And I would not be surprised if it ends up being the best tournament of the year.

Outright Winners - The Open Championship

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