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The Champ is Here!

The Champion course at PGA National is very hard. I've played it, watched the PGA Tour play it and the country's best juniors of the AJGA try and tame it. 15 of the 18 holes have penalty areas (aka - water) and where there is land, we find sand. This week is all about survival and those that stay patient and keep the ball in play will prevail.

We will hear the "Bear Trap" mentioned about a thousand times in coverage, but don't disregard some of the other trouble areas on this treacherous layout. Double bogey awaits around most corners so as you put together this weekend's wager winners keep an eye on those you believe will survive.

• Weather once again looks great on the PGA Tour. Players will ditch the layers we saw on Sunday at Riviera in favor of 80 degree weather in southeast Florida. Round 1 could get a little windy (15 mph), but overall the other three days it looks light.
• Pay attention to Par 3 scoring this week. In 2021, the course played a little over 1 stroke above par. Nearly .9 of that stroke came from the four Par 3's.
• This has been the toughest non-major championship course on the PGA Tour 6 of the last 9 years.
• Over the last 15 years, the cut line has averaged 3.6 shots over par. With little wind predicted and perfect conditions look for it to be a little lower than that.
• Stay close if you want to contend - the last 13 winners have been 9th or better after 36 holes. If you're "live" betting this weekend, watch for that.

Bear Trap, Bear Trap, Bear Trap! Enough already, holes 5-6-7 have historically played more over par than the Bear Trap (15-16-17). The BT plays approximately .55 over par and 5-6-7 plays .66 over par. When you consider the course plays about 1 to 1.5 strokes over par year after year, 85% of that over par scoring comes from these 6 holes. Pick players who can play them well and you'll win.

I'd Like to Buy an Accord

We will need a well rounded player to contend this week. Getting back to my last point, I'm looking for guys who can play holes 5, 6 and 7, along with 15, 16 and 17 effectively. Toss in 10, 11 and 14 for good measure as they rank as three of the toughest at the Champ. What do those holes have in common?

• Par 3 scoring from 175-200. Approach play in that range as well.
• Guys who can avoid bogey. That means they can scramble and make putts (on bermudagrass) in the 5-10' range.
• I have weighted Par 4 Scoring very high in my approach. We have 12 Par 4's. The average birdie rate for all of them is less than 14%. That's really hard. Not one has a birdie rate above 19%!
• Players hit GIR's at PGA National about 60% of the time, PGA Tour average is 66%. My picks can scramble.
• Don't let the driving distance average here fool you (Honda - 273, PGA Tour avg. - 283). Length can be a big advantage here.

Billy Horschel is going to win in Florida. He has played very well on the west coast and Florida is home. With more wins than anyone in the field on bermudagrass (4), his putting is peaking. He has gained over ten shots on the greens combined in his last two tournaments and bermudagrass is by far his best surface. Billy plays difficult courses very well. He gained nearly 11 shots on the field in Phoenix. With a weaker then normal field than usual in this event he's poised to pick up a title.

Colt Knost, "Brian, that putter you have is pretty unique, what's it made out of?" Brian Harman responded, "Money." I'll never forget that quote I heard this fall in an excellent interview by a CBS' on course reporter. Now I've waited because Harman's a hunter and he's not concentrating on golf in the fall. The spring and summer, well that's FedEx Cup season and he's a master at those points too. Especially with that putter. Harman is ranked 4th is this field for Par 4 Scoring and Bogey Avoidance. This week is Bear season, and I think he's taking dead aim toward a win.

If you look at each of the 2022 winners on the PGA Tour, their average finish for the two weeks before they won was just around 20th. Cam Young's average finish over his last 3 events is 17th. This young man won twice on the Korn Ferry Tour last year in back to back weeks. He knows how to play well in stretches. He gained 8 shots on the field at Farmers and 14 at the Genesis. Those are very difficult tests and so is this week. Long off the tee and an excellent bermudagrass putter, I cannot look past his ability to clump success throughout his career.

Outright Winners - Honda Classic

Billy Horschel (+2200)

Brian Harman (+4000)

Cam Young (+5500)

Two weeks until the PLAYERS Championship!

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