Player of the year?

The “why” driving Read The Line has always been about creating a great community of golf fans. When Joe Idone and John Haslbauer of the Preferred Lines podcast joined our network, the three of us had one goal; to all win on the same week. Tough to do, as we follow independent research and make our picks. I’m proud to write we checked that box in our first season together! All three of us went to the wyndow for Wyndham at the BMW and came away as wynners (with or without Scheffler in the field)! Three wins for us and three in 2026 for the reigning US Open Champion. Is Clark now the lead candidate for Player of the Year? IMO yes.

But… we have one more week to play. What happens if Matt Fitzpatrick or Chris Gotterup capture their fourth win? If Scottie Scheffler or Cameron Young win, is that an edge based upon their current 2026 resumes. While LIV is being read its last rites, the PGA TOUR is faced with a wonderful case of competitive parity. Which beats hand, foot, and mouth disease any day of the week. It also adds to the usual lackluster affair we see at the Tour Championship. Thirty men playing 72 holes of stroke play over four rounds for $40 million. First place receives $10 million and the title of FedEx Cup Champion.

The top 10 of the OWGR have made it to East Lake. Who is the lowest-ranked player in the field? Alex Fitzpatrick (68th). Alongside the POY storyline, there are a number of other incredible subplots to this season-ending cash grab. Gary Woodland has returned to the top 30 tournament for the first time since 2019. Six guys are playing in their first TC; Alex Smalley, Ryan Fox, Min Woo Lee, Ryan Gerard, Alex Fitzpatrick, and Kristoffer Reitan. I’m back in the nearby Oakhurst neighborhood where I stayed last year. Worth a mention as not only can I walk to the course, but the village has a great vibe and sensational food (hello Universal Joint!).

Tour Championship starts in...

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Green screen

Players will face the Andrew Green version of East Lake Golf Club for the third time. I’ve covered a bunch of these before and after the renovation, and the update was far overdue. No formal changes this year; the course will remain a par 70 scorecard measuring 7,440. If you recall, tournament officials switched the par last year, making the fourteenth hole a difficult par 4 rather than a mediocre par 5. A top 5 toughest set of par 3s on the PGA TOUR calendar, ELGC forces these guys to hit a great variety of golf shots. We have an average green size of 6,238 sq/ft. Small in comparison to what these guys saw last week at Bellerive. The putting surfaces are covered in Bermudagrass, the fairways in Zoysia, and it is all surrounded by Bermudagrass rough. Starting strokes are officially gone, and all of my analytic research focuses on the gross winners of this tournament over the last decade. What we referred to as the shadow (or gross) tournament format they used from 2019 to 2024. The stroke play winner this week is the FedEx Cup Champion. So, Alex Smalley, Ryan Fox, Patrick Cantlay, and others play your heart out, and you will be crowned the season-long champion.

The transition from old East Lake to the modern Green version has increased the playability of the golf course considerably. Covering the Tour Championship pre-2025 was getting old. Permanent pin placements and a number of outdated doglegs have been replaced by a much more interesting design. The best players in the world still tear this place up, but the variety of shots they are hitting makes it much more entertaining. Eight holes have water in play, and the field faces 78 bunkers. A homogeneous outline around the green complexes of Bermuda grass rough is now broken up by a number of closely mown chipping areas. Scoring is still prevalent, and the soft conditions will have these guys throwing lawn darts on approach. Do I get the feeling that winning the season-long title matters as I walk the practice grounds? More so than any worries about Presidents Cup Captains picks. After all, those on the bubble for Medinah aren’t in Atlanta.

As the TOUR prepares to move on from TPC Southwind and East Lake, I do have one regret. I would love to see either of these venues play firm and fast. Andrew’s architecture cannot perform under these conditions. The top 10 players in this field are the best players on the planet. Starting with a healthy Scottie, the boys are ready to battle. Scores are going to be low. Vegas set the winning score over/under at 261.5 (-18.5). Those in the POY discussion are definitely grinding and with good reason. Then there's Sam Burns, Si Woo Kim, and Hideki Matsuyama who have one more chance to commemorate these career seasons with a win. Or will we see another Cinderella story similar to Aronimink and Royal Birkdale? I know we all want a new format, but this is the best Tour Championship I have covered from a competitive storyline(s) in some time. Enjoy the final fully loaded field of 2027. Post Presidents Cup, we won’t see many of these men again until 2027.

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How to win?

Scottie Scheffler heads to East Lake as the FedEx Cup points leader for the fifth year in a row! That’s the good news; now the bad. Only one time (2024) has Scheffler taken home the silver bowl. That may not matter to the number one player in the world, but it does if you are trying to pick the winner of the Tour Championship. Why is ELGC not a great Scottie setting? Start with 12 incredible par 4 tests. Some are more difficult than others, but Scheffler is the number one par 4 player on the PGA TOUR planet for scoring and BoB%. Since the renovation, the average winning score is 20 under par. I believe the Green updates improved the golf experience for amateurs, but for the TOUR’s annual top 30, it got easier. Change the par, and it still does not matter. Throw in some soft conditions, and the guys are going to light it up with sub-par scoring. We are now two years into the renovation grow-in. The greens are settled, and the surrounds have been sufficiently watered by Mother Nature.

If you are going to compare East Lake to other PGA TOUR venues, some strong courses come to mind, but are those accurate comps? Outside of the par 3s, the par 5s are quite scorable, and seven of the par 4s are under 450 yards. The shortest player in the field, OTT, is the sixth-ranked player in the world. Length and power will give you a significant edge, but all 30 of these guys are the best the PGA TOUR has to offer in 2026. Total Driving will be key, and guys like Rory, Wyndham, and Woodland, who had the driver flying in St. Louis, catch my attention. Can Clark win twice? I’ve said it every week: there have been 12 multiple playoff winners in 19 years! Two or three plodders (at 300 yards lol) will be in the final top 10, but based upon the weather and turf conditions, total driving is my first key if you plan to get on the podium Sunday.

One of Scottie’s weaknesses has been his immune system. Just kidding, it has been his iron play outside of 175 yards. There are more than a few of those approaches at ELGC. Viktor Hovland, Smalley, Scottie, Hideki, and Si Woo all lead that list. Don’t laugh, but Hovland won here in 2023, and Smalley finished T7 at Sedgefield on wall-to-wall Bermudagrass with a par 70 scorecard three weeks ago. Yes, this is our fifth par 70 layout in a row. Seventy-two holes of elite approach play will prop you up the East Lake leaderboard. Take top 10 Si Woo Kim for example. Kim hits a ton of fairways and has been elite all year with his iron game. That’s what we are looking for. Sixteen players finished double-digits under par last year! With an average green size increased by +500 sq/ft during the renovation, the TOUR can tuck some pins. Combine deep iron skill with proven proximity and you have my most important skill for this swamp.

Bermudagrass putting will play a role. With the humid and wet conditions, that grain will really grab the ball. I see Bermudagrass guys having an edge on the greens. Go back to those Sedgefield and Southwind leaderboards. Look for the best approach players and putters near the top. ELGC has always been one of the toughest places to putt in that five to 15-foot window. We have also seen more than a few players miss inside five feet! It gets grainy, and Andrew Green is known for building subtle surfaces. A little nuance here or there and you better believe the ball will (or won’t) break. The last debutant to win at East Lake? Xander Schauffele in 2017. Almost a decade ago, East Lake experience is valuable against a solid core group of competitors who find themselves in the Tour Championship every year.

Measuring the influence of the around-the-green play can be a bit misleading at ELGC. The surrounds and greenside bunkering can be quite difficult with the new sand and Bermudagrass grain. You won’t see significant gains on the data charts and that’s because of the degree of difficulty. It’s tough for players to gain on the rest of the field. The course has statistically sat in the middle of the TOUR stat tables, but when you watch the guys on-site you can see their issues a little more clearly. With the wet conditions, grain on the closely mown areas will be brutal. Combine that with deep Bermudagrass rough in other areas and you’re going to see some bad shots. Not everyone will struggle, and if you can separate with your short game, I think there’s a differentiation point other outright candidates won’t have.

To summarize, get after the par 5s. Play those eight holes six to eight under par for the week. Finish Sunday well under par on the 4s and even or better on the 3s. Strike your mid irons aggressively and convert on these grainy greens. Where do I see the little edges when I’m walking the course with the guys during their practice rounds? Short game and fairways. If Rory is going to win, he will need to hit more fairways. If Viktor is going to win, he’ll need some of that Mayo magic from 2023. Combine those skills for one more week, and you’ll be in the conversation late on Sunday. Forty million dollars is on the line along with the title of season-long champion. Is that extra pressure? No more than taking down one of the top 5 players in the world. Will the player of the year be our winner? Should we limit our looks to those five guys? If Rory played more this year and won this week, it could be six in the conversation. Either way, the winner is going to give us some incredible theater. Enjoy the show; it doesn’t happen again until Pebble Beach in February…

Outright Winners - Tour Championship

LPGA

Flagship tournament

Miyu Yamashita wins by NINE in Canada. Nice RTL top 10 winner, lol! Where was that game at the AIG Women's Open? Quad on the final hole Friday at Royal Lytham and St. Anne's to miss the cut only to come back in her next start and win by more than a touchdown! The LPGA is a defined class system. The elite players are in another stratosphere when they use their superpowers. Yamashita, Nelly Korda, Haeran Ryu, and Jeeno Thitikul can really separate. That's why if you ever get an LPGA outright over 25-1, it is worth celebrating. Miyu made 28 birdies and five bogeys in route to winning. She is back and so are the rest of the LPGA's elite class descending upon Norton, Massachusetts, a southern suburb of Boston.

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The LPGA should designate the FM Championship as a flagship event. A field of 144 players, 23 of the top 25 in the Rolex World Rankings, are playing at TPC Boston. Once host to 17 PGA TOUR events, FM Global has made this TPC venue their annual home. Now the third edition of this summer-ending event, Haeran Ryu (2024) and Miranda Wang (2025) are the two past winners. The top 65 and ties compete over the weekend for $4.4 million, and our third FM Champion will receive a check for $660,000. The presenting sponsor, FM Global, has done an incredible job supporting women's professional golf. Beyond this week's tournament, FM is providing the extra coverage we have seen all year across multiple streaming platforms and linear TV of the LPGA. That's why this event has quickly become one of the premiere events on the schedule. What better way to challenge the PGA TOUR's season-ending championship than to have the 10 best female players in the world compete!

Great Woods

Thirteen of the 17 trips the PGA TOUR made to TPC Boston were FedEx Cup playoff events. A par 72 layout for the ladies, it measures 6,533 yards on the official scorecard. For stretching over 6,500 yards, the par 4 average is only 385 yards. Seven of the 10 par 4s measure under 400 yards. A large part of the reason why the average winning score after two editions is 18 under par. Players can make a bunch of sub-par scores on this course. Managing your bogeys is another important part of this conversation, but we'll get deeper into the skills needed to win in the outright conversation. Twenty-eight acres of fairway are framed by bunkers, native areas, and trees. There are 58 bunkers total and 10 holes where water comes into play. True to a traditional New England design, the green complexes are small. The average putting surface is 5,500 sq/ft and they are covered in beautiful Bentgrass. The region has received a fair amount of precipitation in August (2.52").

The wet weather will make the scoring surfaces softer. That's a massive opportunity for the best ball strikers. The variety of shots TPC Boston asks you to hit makes it a wonderful venue for professional players. An original Arnold Palmer design, Gil Hanse and Brad Faxon renovated the course and gave it a great facelift. Now the players are forced to shape the ball and hit shots of varying heights. Major champions make up a number of the names at the top of both final leaderboards. Remember Carlton Woods where they played the Chevron for a couple of years? That's a great comp course along with Lake Nona to start the schedule back in January and the season-ending tour championship host course; Tiburon. Courses with trouble surrounding almost every landing area. Play aggressively, find the fairway, you will be rewarded. Not many courses offer so many different styles of scoring chances. Risk-reward decision-making has become the DNA of the FM Championship. That's great for the fans who definitely show up in Boston. This is the only professional golf event of the year they get to see. The final holes provide an incredible amphitheater effect as 16, 17, and 18 are all within close proximity to one another. While just 30 men provide the theater in Atlanta, a full field in New England gives us the best opportunity to bring home a much larger winning ticket.

How to win?

There are two ways one can attack TPC Boston from a scoring perspective. Players can implement a conservative game plan and play to larger landing areas off the tee and the middle of the green. The second strategy is to attack edges in the fairway, create shorter approaches, and more scoring chances. Feel free to go the conservative route, but I don't think that gets you across the finish line in first place. There are too many elite power players in this field to hold back and believe you can create enough birdie opportunities with a longer club on approach. At some point, you will have to challenge these doglegs, go after the par 5s in two, and fire at the reachable holes. Nelly, Charley, and Haeran are all too good to lay back. Couple the competitive atmosphere with the notion that this is the last warmup before the Solheim Cup. Pressure is on a bunch of players to perform or just get their game in order. Those team match play events are not about laying up. Match play pushes the aggressive nature of the game, and I believe that mindset will be shared by many at TPC Boston.
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Off the tee, I am looking for players who use the driver as a scoring weapon. Those who are able to send it far and straight. I'm taking into consideration SG: OTT and Total Driving for TPC Boston. Twelve of the 14 fairways bend in some fashion. Some present a severe dogleg. The more comprehensive you can be driving the ball, the better. I'm looking at comp courses such as Shadow Creek, Lake Nona, Carlton Woods, Royal Mayfair, Evian, and Blythefield CC. If you can attack those courses off the tee, you are set up for success at TPC Boston. The main reason why you must push it down the fairway are these small green surfaces. The shorter the iron you are using to attack with, the better your chances are to increase your overall proximity to the hole. The average par 5 is 503 yards. Longer players have a huge advantage on the 5s as two of them are guarded by a penalty area in front of the green limiting those who can go for them in two.
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The last two top 10s have hit an average of 79% of their GIRs. That's a significant number because the overall size of these putting surfaces says those are legitimate birdie putts. When you consider the shape and contour of the greens, they get even smaller. There are outcroppings and false fronts. A few of the greens are above you on approach, and a few drop below. TPC Boston constantly calls for adjustments. This is why the best approach players perform so well here. You must control the ball flight and spin. That second skill will be tested as the region has received rain, and the course will see more during the championship. Soft greens will favor the best approach players, allowing them an opportunity to create two dozen birdie chances (or more). Those two top 10s have gained twice as many strokes on the field with their irons than they have OTT or ARG. Small greens do call for a couple of timely chips (and pitches), but overall short game has not been the deciding factor at the FM. With so many short approaches, if you start missing the putting surface, you cannot create enough sub-par scoring chances to contend.
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Scoring at TPC Boston starts with the par 5s. LPGA officials have routinely set these holes up to be easy. A bad swing, and you could be in a penalty area, but the best ball strikers will eat these holes up. Bentgrass greens will roll true, and with the recent weather they have received, the greens are in stellar shape. The best Bentgrass (northern grass) putters we have seen over the past two weeks are a great starting point for this skill list. Toss in those who have performed well here in the past, and you have plenty of options for an outright card. I have played TPC Boston many times, and it is a really fun golf course. There are so many creative ways everyone can score. The terrain pushes and pulls the ball toward the hole and the landing areas at times. Put together some solid contact, and you can have a career day. I always felt driving the ball was the most important attribute, and that's why I started my outright skill list there. You'll s card favors power and putting. Put those two skills together this week, and you'll get to 20 under par!

Outright Winners - FM Championship

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