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We have an outright winner at Read The Line for the second week in a row. Fact is, we almost had two in one weekend with Rory's runner-up at the API. That's 14 outright winners in just 13 months since we launched in 2022.
Congratulations to Jin Young Ko for closing out the HSBC Women's World Championship early Sunday morning. Her back to back 65's in the second and third round helped her take control of the tournament. The former world's #1 player defended her title in Singapore and gave us two wins at the HSBC in as many years.
What a wave of momentum we are riding heading into the largest purse event of the season! Three weeks in a row would be something special at The PLAYERS Championship!
When it comes to handicapping golf tournaments, I believe in stories, not just stats. I need a narrative to predict winners, and a model just won't cover it all. A big part of those winning stories stems from what I see on-site watching the players up close. As Read The Line continues to grow, it is important to me that we never lose that edge.
The Superbowl of the PGA TOUR season takes place this week in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida. The PLAYERS Championship has been contested on the TPC Sawgrass Stadium Course since 1982. In 41 past editions, there has been truly one winner - Pete Dye. The masterpiece of his design career, this course is the most well-rounded test he has ever created.
Touted annually as the toughest field in golf, pundits propose that's no longer the case due to LIV, yet I argue the strength of field will still rank in the Top 4 of men's professional golf this year.
The PLAYERS marks our fourth designated event on the PGA TOUR in the last five weeks. If you watched any of them, you have not been disappointed. Just this past weekend, we had eight players within one shot of the lead with three holes left to play. Just as we thought Scottie Scheffler or Rory McIlroy (sigh) was going to win, +20000 Kurt Kitayama pulled it off by birdieing the 71st hole. That storyline is the perfect lead in to one of the most volatile betting tournaments of the year.
Most quickly look at the average winner's odds over the last decade and see a +7900 average. With an average winning total in the mid-teens (-14.2) and all of the peril Pete has placed across the landscape, even the best can get tripped up by one bad swing. I'm taking a rather different approach this week. Even though Kurt took the API, I still believe elite events have elite winners.
The weather in March can play a significant role as it did last year, but overall I believe the course conditions are more predictable in March. Therefore, the best players will continue to win while the PLAYERS is held in early spring. Bermudagrass rough and greens are very unpredictable. With the wintertime overseed to Poa on the greens and much more consistent Rye grass rough similar to Bay Hill, the elite will tend to contend more often. The course is located a little more than a mile from the Atlantic Ocean, so even in a calm year we do have to pay attention to the forecast.
The Stadium Course spins you around like a lead character in a Hitchcock film. Combine Dye's design with four different wind directions in four days and the adaptability factor of these guys will be severely tested. One of the best examples of TPC's test comes on the Par 3's. Not only are they four very unique tests, they all play in different directions. Each covering the compass N-S-E-W, and combined with a changing coastal wind you can quickly see the challenge at hand.
This is why the average cutline over the last five years has been over par (+1.4). Much like the last two weeks, the Florida swing is not player friendly. Fresh off the Pro-Am birdiefest tour out west, this stretch in the schedule will really start to bring our major contenders into focus for 2023. I love being on property as we will be bringing you on-site coverage for the fourth straight week. The PLAYERS is absolutely one of the best tournaments of the year. Enjoy it!
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PLAYERS on TV:
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The difference between knowing the path and walking the path
I approach the PLAYERS puzzle just as I do every week. After all, we have 14 wins in 13 months. The process is proven and I know being on-site also gives us an extra edge.
Pete Dye's masterpiece is designed with one intent, force you to make decisions. However, just because you know what you should do, doesn't always mean you can you do it? I think about half of this field can build a successful blueprint for this week. I know that sounds harsh, but look at the record. The PLAYERS field is one of the least predictive on tour. In the last four PLAYERS starts, Rory McIlroy has missed the cut, won, missed the cut, and finished 33rd. If one of the best players in the world struggles here, what are the chances of an average PGA TOUR member contending?
Having played and walked the course many times, I built my outright list based upon four fundamental questions for the Stadium Course.
As a PGA Coach, I can develop a blueprint for success at Sawgrass, but can you implement it? The Stadium Course is a five hour outer body experience. A player's ability to control their emotions, manage their patience, and perform the tasks Pete puts in from of them is the key. Our outright list is a collection of trained killers. Guys who are impeccable ball strikers and proven winners. In case your questioning Corey Conners, he won after Monday Qualifying just to get in the tournament. That's some serious self-belief (The most common characteristic of our winners for the PLAYERS).
For four straight weeks, I have been watching the world's best compete. I have taken countless notes on their game, tendencies, and body language. Nothing is more helpful than using my educated eye to observe on-site. This is an excellent outright list and one I've worked very hard on for the first enormous event of the 2023 season.
I'll be on-site at the Stadium Course, follow social for more content this week.
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