The Masters
The Narrative
I will be betting Tiger Woods this week. Don't kid yourself, he's healthier than he's telling us. I spent 5 years as a PGA Professional working at Isleworth Country Club from 1998-2003. In that time, I watched and learned the habits of Tiger. I knew him very well. He's ready. If you miss the opportunity to take advantage of these kinds of odds for Tiger, you'll be really upset because they may never reach these heights again. He's +6000 to win. The last time Tiger's odds were that high in anything was when he went head to head with Bob Hope on the Mike Douglas Show!
As I write this, rain descends upon Augusta National Golf Club. The story of The 86th Masters will be largely affected by the weather.
- Close to 2" of rain will fall between Tuesday and Thursday in Augusta.
- Combine that with another 5.25" of rain in March and the course will be soft.
Yes, they have sub-air systems for the greens, but there's only so much technology can do against Mother Nature. (Did you watch the PLAYERS Championship this year?)
The course has been lengthened by 35 yards and now extends over 7,500 yards. Include the fact they mow the fairways back toward the players to decrease roll and this Masters will play longer than any Masters ever.
- Since 2008, every winner has been in the Top 35% of driving distance on tour.
- With an Official World Golf Ranking dominated by distance at the top, in the last 12 years every winner has been ranked 29th or better in the world when they won the green jacket.
After the rain, we expect two very windy days on Thursday and Friday. Gusts in the 25+ mph range. Players struggle playing ANGC when it's calm, imagine what this will do. I fully expect a Masters where the fairways are soft and the greens firm up as the week goes on. Since the Masters is played in the same place annually, we have history to call upon to help us determine what type of player excels under those playing conditions.
- The closest comp Masters with similar predicted weather and playing conditions was in 2019.
- Both Round 1 and 2 were wet and windy.
This is not a Tiger narrative. The 86th Masters will play very long and require a high ball flight to contend. How long? Super long. The average Par 4 length at ANGC is 456 yards. So many pundits and prediction models tout the difficulty of the Par 3's. If you look at history and take the average of the hardest holes played every year and rank them by difficulty from 1 to 18, the Par 4's play tougher as a group than the Par 3's.
- The difficulty average of the Par 4's - 7.4
- The difficulty average of the Par 3's - 7.75
I know it's close, but if you want to win The Masters, you must be a Par 4 killer that week. Over the last 9 years, the winners have played the Par 4's an average of 3 under par for the tournament. Experience also gets mentioned about as much as the Par 3's. A rookie hasn't won since 1979. Even though a rookie finished second last year, that trend will continue. Here's why, the course will play completely different than the practice rounds.
- Due to the changing weather and conditions, those with a successful history at ANGC hold a decided advantage over the field.
- Take note of this famous Jack Nicklaus quote, "You don't read putts at Augusta National, you remember them."
The 86th edition of this tradition unlike any other is upon us and that's your needs to contend in a nutshell. Experience, Par 4 scoring, power, high ball flight and one more...
- ANGC is the most difficult course around the green statically on the PGA Tour.
You better bring your short game, imagination and lag putting. For if you don't, make reservations in Hilton Head this weekend.
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The Television Show
I filmed the first episode of "Tee to Green" this week for BetOnline. Together with Chantel McCabe, we covered the best bets for The Masters. Each edition is 30 minutes long and airs on Wednesday evenings. We talk Tiger, favorites breakdown, prop opportunities and give our picks to win!
I'll post the link on social media tonight after it airs!
The Picks
There is so much build up to the 86th Masters. Why? Is it the large group of favorites, golf's popularity, all the betting conversations? Probably a combination of a couple of those, but I believe it is the wait. It has been 263 days since Collin Morikawa won at Royal St. George's in July. We don't realize it, but between Collin's two major victories, we experienced 7 majors in less than a year. In 346 days, we saw Collin, Bryson, DJ, Hideki, Phil, Rahm and Collin (again) win majors.
This amazing stretch of championships has given us a tremendous appetite for major golf and even better yet, a great sample of high level major performance. As a result, the books basically don't even know who will win. In that time, we've seen great play from Rahm, Collin, Cantlay and Scottie. Remember all of that? How about the three wins by Burns and Hideki? How about Cam Smith's 2022?
7 guys started with odds this week under +2000. What that tells me is that this is not only the most anticipated major in three years, it's a very tight field as well. That's why when it comes to selecting my outright winners, I am definitely favoring current form and major prowess.
Justin Thomas admits he has underperformed in majors. That's why this fantastic ball striker went out and built a team to support him. He hired PGA putting coach John Graham. Acquired a 3-time Masters winning caddie and built a very significant mentor-apprentice friendship with Tiger Woods. JT is in great form finishing Top 10 in 4 of his last 7 events. He's Top 5 in SG:Total and SG:T2G. He hits it plenty long and very high. Has "RADAR" stamped on his wedges for reason. In the 7 Major Run (7MR) he has 4 Top 25 finishes. A perfect game to suit Magnolia Lane, the team and his current form make it his time. I'm not sure what his jacket size is, but if I were Fred Ridley and Co. I'd find out.
With all of the firepower at the top of the betting board, this may turn into an epic fight come the second nine on Sunday afternoon. If I'm going to a rumble, there's one guy I'm bringing and that's Brooks Koepka. Here's why...
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Since 2016, Brooks is
- 1st in relation to par
- 1st in Birdie or Better %
- 1st in Rounds in the 60's
- 1st in Scoring Average
- 1st in Rounds led or co-led
- 1st in Strokes Gained
- 1st in WINS!
In fact, since 1995, only one player has gained more strokes against the field in majors and that's Tiger Woods. We all know Brooks was injured last year at Augusta. Prior to the 2021 Masters, Brooks fired 10 consecutive rounds under par. His 7MR even with that MC at the Masters includes 4 finishes in the Top 7. In the last 18 majors Brooks has played, he has 13 Top 10's. 13! To win you must contend and I believe Brooks is back in a big way this week.
My next pick is ranked #1 - SG:Total in the field. He's #2 in SG:Ball Striking and #3 in SG:T2G. He's Top 10 in Approach and Par 4 scoring. He possesses a world class short game and an incredible lag putter ranked just outside the Top 10 in that category as well. Only 12 players finished in the Top 25 in the last two Masters. JT is one of them and another is Shane Lowry. He's long off the tee and can hit it high or low as evidenced by his Open Championship win. When the weather turns cold and windy this week, I love Lowry to climb the Leaderboard. There's no doubt the pressure and build up this week will be unbelievable. Can Lowry handle it? No doubt. After all, imagine winning your first major in your home country of Ireland.
In case you doubt Tiger Woods' ability to contend this week at Augusta, review his course history:
- 5 wins
- 12 Top 5's
- 14 Top 10's
- Never missed a cut in 21 tries as a professional
- 5th lowest scoring average of all-time and has 23 appearances
Tiger is inspired to play golf again. We can all see it. Not because he almost lost his leg, but rather by his kids. Whether it's the PNC with Charlie or the HOF with Sam he's back to being very motivated. I was there when it all began and I can assure you he will contend this week. For that we can all be grateful, but if you bet him you could be a little richer as well.
Outright Winners - The Masters
Justin Thomas (+1300)
Brooks Koepka (+2000)
Shane Lowry (+5000)
Tiger Woods (+6000) - Bonus pick
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