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Time to enter the ring in Austin

This is a quick week, so let's get started! The field of 64 players is set and about to descend upon Austin Country Club for the WGC Dell Technologies Match Play Championship. A brief break from the weekly 72-hole grind, this annual individual match play tournament always entertains. I will be in Austin covering the WGC Match Play for all of you. Stay tuned on social media for all of the live betting updates. Also pay attention to that weekly countdown timer, the matches start on WEDNESDAY!

Once again we have a designated event with $20 million dollars in the purse and a check for $3.6 million to the winner. This Pete Dye masterpiece would be tough to play everyday as a member, but this week it certainly adds to the drama.

• Austin CC is a Par 71 measuring approximately 7,108.
• Unlike stroke play events, officials will move the tees this week more than usual. Match play offers them the flexibility to take bigger risks in course setup.
• Just 110 bunkers over 18 holes to contend with this week!
• We have seven holes where water comes into play, and 13 holes where trouble comes into play on the left. Rarely do we see that large of a penalty trend on the PGA TOUR.
• The fairways are only 25 yards wide, but overall it looks like they will let them compete as the rough height is 2".

We expect the weather in Austin to be about as predictable as the matches. Temperatures will be warm rising into the 80's each day and Wednesday through Friday the breeze will be blowing the strongest. Wednesday through Friday rain is predicted with Friday having the best chance for showers. We may see .25-.40" of rain over the three days. Austin has received less than an inch of rain in the last month and with this hilly terrain, I expect the course to play firm and fast.

I mentioned the Group Stage, as there is a unique format this week. Many changes have been made over the years, but since 2015 we have followed this plan.

• 64 players are sorted into 16 groups of 4.
• Each group winner advances to the Top 16 Knockout bracket.
• Those men play Saturday morning, the Top 8 on Saturday afternoon, Semifinals on Sunday morning and then the Finals and 3rd Place match on Sunday afternoon.

That's 126 holes in 5 days. It's match play so it could be less or it could be more. In any event, Austin Country Club is pretty hilly and one of the tougher walks on tour. The elevation changes really play a significant role in shaping many of the risk reward decision moments on the course. Since the Match Play moved to Austin in 2016, our winners have represented a couple of common themes.

• The average seed of the winner has been 25th.
• The average winner's pre-tournament odds at Austin have been +5200 (52/1).

An average of 4.8 top seeds have survived to advance out of the Group Stage. Keep that in mind as you build your bracket. More than ten of those group winners will not be the lowest ranked player. We'll get into what it takes to be successful this week in the outrights section. For now it's important to realize this week is a wild card. My approach will be conservative prior to Wednesday and then target specific H2H's each day just as we did at the Presidents' Cup.

We had a 57% success rate that week in Charlotte and I expect us to do as well if not better with this field. Austin Country Club is a tough test. The greens average about 5,500 square feet and eight of the last ten holes have penalty areas. Approach accuracy, around the green play, and putting will differentiate these guys. Twenty-six of the Top 30 in the world are competing and 54 of the Top 64. The highest ranked player in the field is Cam Davis (79) and his World Ranking points are less than ten behind world #1 Scottie Scheffler. It's a tight bunch!

If you think March Madness is crazy, wait until this week unfolds...

The Dell Match Play starts in...

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ABC... always be closing

Just as we witnessed this weekend, winning is hard. Closing out a 72-hole tournament might be one of the most difficult tasks in all of professional sports. I have heard so many mention Schenk's bad break, but as a PGA Professional I can assure you of this. If you hit it in the woods; you are going to find trees. Congratulations to Taylor Moore and his backers, what a wonderful week for him and his support team.

We won't see any Taylor Moores this week in Austin. One the smallest and most elite fields in golf is about to determine who is the best closer in golf. Winning a tournament is tough, but to win the Match Play you must close out seven matches against the best in the world. The knack of being a closer comes from a couple of specific traits. We see it in Ryder Cups and we'll also see it this week.

• Strokes Gained Tee to Green (SG:T2G) is so important. By constantly keeping the ball in play and in position to make birdies, you place a ton of pressure on your opponent(s). When predicting success this week, a competitor's ability to be well-rounded is priority number one. SG:T2G is comprised of off the tee, approach, and around the green aptitude. By covering all three this value really measures each player's ability to control their golf ball.
• Great putters are dangerous foes. When you look at the list of past finalists for the Match Play this trend stands out. Proximity to the hole matters, but without a closers mentality on the greens, you won't win seven matches (Kisner, Day, Scheffler, etc). All of these players are very solid with the flatstick. Sure saving par with a couple of six footers is important, but the type of putting I'm looking for is making birdies. Putts per GIR is a powerful indicator this week and one I will dig deep on.
• Four of the five most difficult holes at Austin CC relative to par are Par 4's. Scoring on these holes will give you an advantage. Par 4 scoring is a great indicator most weeks on the PGA TOUR, but in the case of this course and the format it truly can lead you to victory.
• Thirteen holes at ACC have a birdie rate over 15%. One-third of them have a birdie rate over 25%! When the PGA TOUR picked this course they wanted scoring. Players who make a lot of birdies have a big advantage this week, because a bad hole will only cost you a hole, and not the cutline or the tournament. We want guys who make a ton of low scores. Aggressive birdie makers will win H2H in most cases.
• My last successful skill I'm targeting is scrambling. The ability to score from inside 100 yards is very important on this course. Consider the difficulty of the Par 3's, length of a couple Par 4's and always the Par 5's and it's imperative our winners can get the ball in the hole from any situation. Nothing will shift the momentum in a match like a chip in, or unique scoring opportunity. Our match play masters will break hearts on approach from close range.

March madness continues in Austin. Be prepared for upsets and the chalk. It takes a thoughtful approach on weeks like this. Let's be grateful our methodology doesn't only rely on numbers...

Outright winners - The WGC Dell Technologies Match Play

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What are my prospects?

After two more weeks off, the LPGA is going to really start their 2023 campaign. The LPGA Drive On Championship will be played in Gold Canyon, Arizona at the Superstition Mountain Golf and Country Club. Home to the LPGA Safeway Invitational from 2004 to 2008 this venue has hosted some incredible championships.

• Six of the Top 10 in the Rolex Women's Rankings are playing.
• They will compete for $1.75 million dollars and a first place check of $262,500.

The LPGA's best will be competing on the Prospector Course. Designed by Jack Nicklaus, these 18 holes are covered in bunkers, surrounded by desert, and designed with undulating greens. Jack has a habit of adding sand and sectioning his green complexes. The list of past Safeway winners is a who's who of women's professional golf. In the five years the ladies played the Prospector, there were only three different winners.

• Annika Sorenstam (2004, 05), Julie Inkster (2006), Lorena Ochoa (2007, 08)
• Combined, they have 130 career wins!

All three are in the Hall of Fame. When we get to the outright predictions, their influence will be felt on our card. Before we go there, let's take a closer look at the course and the conditions these players will face in Arizona.

• Our venue is a Par 72, 6,690 layout.
• There are 82 bunkers and one hole where water comes into play. I guess it really is the desert!
• All 18 tee shots face bunkers either around the fairway or the green.
• No two holes in a row run in the same direction. Nicklaus constantly has you turning around on this course.
• It seems like each green complex has a chipping area. The tight Bermudagrass is overseeded with Rye, but to score you best be ready to chip from a tight lie.

Even though we are in the Arizona desert, the weather looks a little cool for late March. Temperatures are predicted to peak in the mid-60's. They may get a little rain early in the week and overall March has been pretty dry accumulating just 1.5" of precipitation. Wind looks mild for the four days ranging from eight to 12 or 13 miles per hour. Essentially we have great scoring conditions for the event. The full field of 142 players is ready (Top 65 and ties make the cut). They should be considering the staggered start to this season. Thankfully with the return to the United States, we now have a consistent weekly schedule for the remainder of 2023.

Those Hall of Fame Safeway winners averaged 17 under par in route to victory. Superstition Mountain is a world class facility. A few of the LPGA's finest even practice there. Jennifer Kupcho, Carlota Ciganda, and Mina Harigae are all professional members of the facility. I'm sure their familiarity with the course will provide even the slightest edge.

• The Prospector Course has four Par 3's and 5's and ten Par 4's.
• Six of the Par 4's measure over 390 and have an average length of 387 yards.
• The Par 3's average 178 yards and provide a serious test.

Don't get too spooked because Superstition Mountain's golf sits at 1,900+ feet above sea level. That will definitely make a difference when it comes to how far the ball will carry. I cannot wait to truly get this season started for the ladies. Remember, the last time they played we won! Jin Young Ko (+2000) closed the deal in Singapore. Will this week have a similar champion? Will another future Hall of Famer take the title? All those questions and more are answered in the outright section.

The Drive On starts in...

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Don't be superstitious

Annika Sorenstam, Lorena Ochoa and Julie Inkster are three of the most well-rounded players ever to compete on the LPGA. To define what makes them great winners would take a Wikipedia sized explanation. The fact they all won on the Prospector course is very interesting. Together they defined their three eras in golf. They did it with a common skill set one woman will need to possess this week in order to follow in their footsteps.

• Lorena, Annika and Julie could control their golf ball. That's the primary skill I'm looking for this week. None of these ladies have played much since November. With only three tournaments so far, and all over the world, they now must come to the desert and handle target golf at 2,000 feet. The vast majority of this field cannot practice these conditions prior to arriving. That's why I'm looking for an extra amount of control (and power) from my outrights. The Drive On will be all about adapting to the new carry distances and believing in your contact. Come Sunday afternoon, you better really be sure how far that ball goes. The closing stretch of this course is demanding and will ultimately decide who is worthy to win.
• When preparing to play any Jack Nicklaus course, you better spend some time in the sand. Thirty-seven fairway bunkers and 45 greenside bunkers cover this course. Each green complex has at least bunker! Jack loves to design with sand. To come out on top this week, you will need to show some acumen in the bunker.
• Jack also loves to section off his green complexes. When he does partition the greens there tends to be ridiculous ridges and humps. Nicklaus loves the nuances in putting the average player doesn't practice. He will always test you with the flatstick. Again look at the three past champions. These ladies are three of the best putters to ever play; man or woman. Our predictions will be able to putt.
• In researching the design, and I mentioned this earlier, Jack surrounded the greens with runoffs and swales. Chipping from awkward uphill, downhill, and sidehill tight lies will test the players. Confidence with a wedge is very important. Not just pitching and chipping, but nearly 40% of your approach shots will come from inside 125 yards. Dominate these scoring distances and you'll be well on your way to 18 under par.
• Conversely, on approach 40% of your approach irons will come from over 160 yards. Long iron and hybrid play is important. Miss and you're going to be visiting the sand or possibly the desert. I'm looking for powerful players this week just for this reason. Proximity from these distances is difficult even at increased elevation. The course will play firm so I expect some roll, but every extra yard will make a huge impact on these longer approaches.

Leona Maguire won last year's tournament with excellent putting and incredible accuracy closing with a final round 67. Her game matched last year's venue perfectly. With a new venue, I'm not sure she's an excellent match anymore. I believe our winner will either be a young superstar or a player well on her way to joining Annika, Julie, and Lorena in the HOF. With this list, I know we can win back to back LPGA events!

Outright winners - LPGA Drive On Championship

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Both tours are back in action!

Just two weeks until Augusta and the Masters.

Let's win again before we head into the year's first REALLY designated event...

Head right to our website and join! Read The Line.

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