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What can Brown do for you?50. The 2021 RSM Classic was Read The Line's first newsletter. Less than five years later, Blades Brown represents our 50th outright win. What better way to celebrate than having two RTL picks, Ben James and Brown, compete in a sudden death playoff for the WWT Championship. Blades is the youngest winner on the PGA Tour in nearly 100 years! A startup of sorts... Brown is also the fourth winner in four editions of the WWT at El Cardonal to shoot a Sunday 63 and win. That's correct, Griffin, Eckroat, and van Rooyen all shot nine under par to close out the championship. With the disappointment of another runner-up LPGA finish on Sunday morning, the timing of this win could not have been more meaningful. We have six more events to cover in 2026, let's see if we can get a couple more! A brand new event enters the PGA Tour schedule as the penultimate tournament on the 2026 calendar. A field of 120 players will travel to Austin, Texas for the Austin Championship presented by Compliance Solutions. Five-hundred precious FedEx Cup points are on the line along with a $6 million purse. I mention the season long points list first for two reasons. Five players currently inside the AON Next 10 are competing to keep their place in the field for the first two Signature events of 2027. The other important cutline is the top 100. Seventeen men ranked 90 through 110 are in Austin trying desperately to sit inside the top 100 after next week and earn their Tour card. Although $1.08 million for first sounds nice, any of those on the bubble would surely take the points over the cash. Our brand new host venue is the Omni Barton Creek Resort and Spa. Located just west of downtown Austin, the only thing better than those coveted FEC points might be the BBQ fare. Speaking of Austin, this tournament marks the return of the PGA Tour to the state capital since the Match Play was cancelled in 2023. The Austin Championship also marks the fifth time the Tour has ventured into Texas this year. Austin Championship starts in...Fazio funThe Omni Barton Creek Resort and Spa is home to four championship golf courses. The Canyons Course opened in 1999 to rave reviews. In 2022, the course went under a massive renovation with one goal in mind, bring elite professional golf to the resort. Tournament hosts achieved that goal and the Austin Championship was born. A par 72 scorecard, the course stretches 7,451 yards across the western hills of Austin. The Canyons Course specifically is home to many elevation changes and limestone outcroppings. Covered in Bermudagrass, 26 of the top 100 in the OWGR are ready to tear this place apart. The Barton Creek Resort may sound familiar to golf fans. The Fazio Foothills and Coore-Crenshaw Cliffside courses hosted the 2022 PGA of America National Championship. The low 20 players in that tournament earned a place in the 2022 PGA Championship contested at Southern Hills. The Canyons Course sits a mile or so southwest of the main resort. Four par 3s and 5s, and 10 par 4s, there are 10 holes with a penalty area in play, and 43 bunkers cover the course. The turf conditions will be ideal for scoring. Even though nobody in the top 50 of the OWGR is in attendance, we still have 26 players inside the top 100... Needless to say these guys aren't good, they are great. The last four winners of the Fall Series events owned pre-tournament odds in the 30s. Our winner Blades Brown is just another example of this. Michael Brennan, Austin Smotherman, and Andrew Novak also sat firmly in that middle tier odds range. Those four (including Brown) were showing incredible form. Putting the odds aside for a second, who enters this week (in the field) with at least one fall start and sits in the top 10 for SG: Total (fall)?
Five of those players sit in that coveted middle tier on the odds board. Why is it coveted? Because those players can win. Smotherman, Novak, Kirk, Power, and Harman are not only playing well this fall, but they all also have proven they can win more than once on the PGA Tour. Brown and Castillo are two more 2026 winners on that list. We are six events into the FEC Fall Series and the average winning score is 22 under par. Four of the events have posted a winning score of 23 under par or lower! With a brand new venue and great scoring conditions, let's not overthink this. The winner in Austin will be under 268 and have been a contender in recent events. My focus will remain on that middle tier. Let's build a card that resembles the 2026 fall resume. Read The Line media ⤵️How to win?Avid RTL readers know I lean toward the playability side of predicting who will win a golf tournament. Analytics are certainly important when it comes to backing up your initial read on a venue, but overall I like to answer one simple question, "what does this golf course ask you to do?" Not all golf courses are alike. The Canyons Course calls for a couple of fundamental player characteristics. In order, I am looking for great mid-iron players (175 - 225 yards). Second, who can hit the fairway (with speed) and when they do miss, are closer to the fairway. A great stat to measure this is called good drives gained. Simply, who hits the GIR even when you miss the fairway. These are generally aggressive players who when they miss the short grass do not do it by much. The third pillar for the Austin outright card is scoring. With 10 holes that feature a penalty area and tons of elevation changes, guys will miss GIRs. I want the best birdie to bogey ratio players. The close to the WWT was a prime example of why this ratio is so important. When the wheels start coming off and the walls are closing in, who repeatedly scores from close range and keeps the momentum going. Since we do not have any historical data on Fazio's Canyons Course, our best research time can be spent on comp or complimentary courses. The Canyons Course has a couple of telling traits. I've mentioned this a couple times, but elevation changes matter. The field will walk an average of 5.5 miles and climb 530' during each 18 hole round. What other venues on the PGA Tour test the men's ball striking and fatigue in a similar fashion? Fazio's design also has a devious set of par 3s. They average 212 yards in length and require a great degree of approach acumen. The par 4s all bend and are average in length. Finally, there are four very sub-par friendly par 5s. Based upon those course characteristics and a couple of others, I present the following comp list.
Notice when I selected these venues, none of them are Signature sites. They have comparable fields to the one we are seeing in Austin. When using comp courses, focus on two elements. First, follow the leaderboards and see who specifically has success on that style of venue. The skill sets will correlate if the player is currently expressing great form. The second key is to develop the type of player who excels at those designs. The point is, not every player has to have played there recently. What "type" of player contends at comp course XYZ and how do they compare to others in the current Austin field. This is more of a validation route, but can be equally valuable when you travel with the PGA Tour 20+ weeks per year and know which players correlate. With any new venue, I'll always prioritize putting. The best putters not only make putts, but they read greens better than their competitors and control their delivery speed. The final feature of my outright predictions has to do with FEC points. Players are actively pushing for the AON Next 10 and top 100. Backing players in great form who have to maintain (or increase) exemption status in 2027 has reflected in the fall leaderboards. Six events into the FEC Fall Series we have a sound set of results to follow. Let's keep contending and see if we can catch another win this week in Austin! Outright Winners - Austin ChampionshipLPGA40%Shuri Sakuma fired a final round 64 on Sunday and back nine 30 to win the TOTO Japan Classic. Aki Iwai's runner-up finish marked the SEVENTH time RTL has finished second on the LPGA this season. Iwai was the 54-hole leader, but could not seal the deal. If you count our four wins and seven second places, RTL has now finished first or second in 40% of the LPGA events this year! That's 11 times in 28 events YTD. If seven seconds sounds bad, we have nine runner up finishes on the PGA Tour in 2026. (Sigh.) It's been a year of close calls, and wins. Thankfully, Blades Brown (30-1) recorded our seventh win of the season at the WWT Championship! 73 days...It has been 73 days since Nelly Korda finished T50 at the FM Championship in August. Tough to believe the number one ranked player in the world has not competed on the tour in over two months. Korda did join the United States in a losing effort at the Solheim Cup in mid-September, but then she skipped the next six tournaments. Thankfully, the LPGA's brightest star is returning to a venue where she has won three times. A field of 108 players is set to compete in The ANNIKA Gainbridge. The top 65 ties play the weekend for $3.25 million. For the seventh year in a row, the world's best women will play the subtly beautiful Pelican Golf Club in Belleair, Florida. Fourteen of the top 25 in the Rolex World Rankings are trying to improve their standing on the CME Group points list. The top 60 gain entrance into the Tour Championship at Tiburón next week. For some this will be the final event of their 2026 campaign. While others like Nelly Korda will use The ANNIKA to prepare for the biggest purse of the season and chance to become the season's final winner. Pelican briefThe Pelican Golf Club is one of my favorite LPGA or PGA Tour venues we see annually. The seventh time hosting this tournament, the average winning score is 16 under par and the average cutline rests at one over par. Club leadership likes it that way and unanimously supports the women by creating an atmosphere unlike any other non-major championship venue. How many LPGA events have Annika Sorenstam as their host? Don't forget, Fred Ridley is a member here. The most powerful man in golf knows how to run a world-class tournament. One of the few par 70 scorecards on the LPGA circuit, the course measures 6,349 yards. That's below the weekly average, but keep in mind, Pelican GC only has two par 5s. That will take off approximately 250 yards. Another subtle feature that will lull you into a false sense of security are the green complexes. The putting surfaces are (on average) 8,000 sq/ft. Covered in grainy Bermudagrass, watch out for the edges. Much like Salvador Dalí painting, those surrounds melt away. Outside of the majors, these are some of the most difficult greens to putt on the schedule. Donald Ross' design created a template of shelves and swales that were only enhanced by Beau Welling a few years back. Make these greens firm and watch out. A dry Donald Ross venue with 60 acres of grainy fairway Bermudagrass, 52 bunkers, and 10 holes with water in play are enough to keep everyone's attention. Our leaders will average 4 under par per round, but don't let that mislead you. The cutline will likely be over par for the top 65 and ties. With dry conditions and all of that fairway grass, the ball(s) will be rolling everywhere! Once it does come to rest, what kind of lie are you dealing with? Are you into the grain or lying with the grass. Since we started covering the LPGA in 2022, they have played less and less events in Florida. Much like the men, some players are just better on Bermudagrass. With two of the three Florida events on the schedule coming at the end of the season, we don't have a ton of Bermudagrass agronomy to go by. We know Nelly Korda has won three of the last five ANNIKAs. Korda grew up in Florida and resides there now giving her an edge this week and next. Hence, she is the tournament favorite (+550). I warn you not to get captured by Korda's record. Nelly's last two finishes were outside the top 20 and in August! If the world's number shows a little rust, who can take her place at the trophy ceremony? How to win?The WTGL just started on Sunday. While the Los Angeles Golf Club beating the New York Golf Club appears to have very little to do with Pelican Golf Club, I would argue it does. I believe the TGL affect is real. Players try harder when they know they are going to be exposed on national television. As such, in preparing for those simulator matches, there is a higher degree of focus and intensity. I see it on the men's side all the time. If a player is in poor form in the SoFi Center, they surely will not make my weekend wager list. Whether you watch the WTGL or not, and I strongly suggest you do because it is cool, but Alison Lee, Gaby Lopez, Rose Zhang, and others were playing in Sunday's first match. Last night, match two took place between the Motor City Golf Club and Los Angeles GC. Not what you would expect me to print during Pelican week in preparation for a tough Donald Ross design, but its 2026 and it all counts toward winning outrights. PGC has 70 acres of fairway to find with your driver. Defending Champion Linn Grant (WTGL) is one of the best drivers on tour and she is our defending champion! Does that mean length matters? Think of Pelican GC like El Cardonal last week on the PGA Tour. Yes, everyone could hit the fairway, but landing it on the correct side to attack the hole location is what really mattered. Don't be thrown off by Grant and Korda's ball speed ability. Accuracy over length is what really counts. The last four top 10s gained an average of four strokes on the field with their iron game. With all of the various approach angles from the fairway, proximity control with your irons is priority numero uno. I'm taking players who are coming in with their approach radar on. So many of these green complexes are extremely well designed. The putting surfaces end up playing so much smaller than the advertised 8,000 sq/ft average. They also sit at funny angles and test your alignment. This is no time to question your iron acumen, it’s time to confidently point and shoot. If you suffer from the chipping yips off of tight lies, then Pelican Golf Club might not be the best venue for your next golf getaway. A carpet of carefully designed hills, humps, and hollows would challenge even the most skilled short game artist. If you take a glance at the strokes gained stats, it certainly does not tell the whole story. Pelican Golf Club is one of the most well-rounded tests on the LPGA tour (including major championships). The green complexes are dotted with excellent bunkering and perfectly placed penalty areas. This is definitely one of my favorite courses to watch the women compete, and it is because of the complete skill set needed to succeed. I'm starting with around the green aptitude because we seldom feature short game as a priority skill. Most venues allow the leaders to a large majority of their GIRs, and this puts very little pressure on their pitching and chipping. After covering five editions of The ANNIKA, our RTL charts are quite refined for this venue. One thing we know, the better your short game, the better your chances are for contending and ultimately winning. A lean toward short game implies that a little bogey avoidance wouldn't hurt. I'm definitely measuring birdie-to-bogey ratio, scrambling, and birdie-or-better percentage. How well can you score? How well can you keep that scorecard bogey-free? We've seen this over the years at PGC. Subtle slopes and odd angles off the tee keep the field on edge for 18 holes. Seventy-two holes over four days. Think I'm kidding, the final three holes all have significant penalty areas in play. Looking to close The ANNIKA, you better possess her steely resolve. A little prior experience goes a long way on Donald's original design with Beau Welling's modern touch. A par 70 scorecard and only two par 5s, you must find a way to make sub-par scores when you don't get four par 5 scoring chances. A heavy lean on par 4 scoring is quite valuable with the field playing 12 of them each round. Did I mention that seven of the 12 par 4s have water in play? They do. I say it all the time on the men's side, where par 70 layouts are more prevalent. It takes a specific style of player to succeed on the 70s. There's a reason why Nelly Korda has won here three times in the past five years and the annual leaderboards are littered with the same names year after year. The latest top 10s from 2022-25 hit 78% of their GIRs, but creating real birdie chances comes from proximity at PGC. This is not one of those places where players make a bunch of 25' putts. I want women who have been gaining on the field with their iron game in recent weeks and at this venue. Those same top 10s hit 83% of their fairways. This just reinforces the fact that SG: OTT talent is not a separating skill. Most see Nelly win, and they figure it is a power fest that rewards lengthy ball striking. On approach, yes, but what most miss is that Korda is excellent around the green, and she grew up in the region. Sei Young Kim and Lilia Vu (past champions) also possess accomplished short games. When it comes down to it, who is comfortable playing on this agronomy and topography? Who else has the nerve to create shots off incredibly tight lies and save their scorecard when needed? Precision ball striking, short game savvy, and a little SoFi Center swag, those are the underlying skills I'm featuring on our outright card. Outright Winners - The ANNIKARTL Weekly Editorials 📰Do you want to be a better bettor?Become a member of Read The Line today!
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