Here we go... 2026!

I'm going to leave the endless Koepka rhetoric to the mainstream golf media members and their rarely accurate opinions. When it comes to the wagering world, Brian Rolapp might just become a household name. Give us 36-hole cuts that end on Friday night, and I'll write a letter to Trump nominating our new CEO for the Medal of Freedom!

The 2026 FedEx Cup regular season is about to kick off. Thirty-seven events, including four majors, enjoy them all while you can because 2027 is certainly going to look (and feel) a whole lot different. Another subject for a different time, the Sony Open starts the festivities in Honolulu, Hawaii. For the 61st time, we head to Wai'alae Country Club on the southeast corner of O'ahu Island. A field of 120 players is competing for $9.1 million and a first-place check of $1.64 million. The top 65 and ties will have a chance to cash over the weekend. With the absence of The Sentry and an extended offseason, the push for points seems to occupy every player's mind. The top 70 make the playoffs, the top 50 signature status, and the top 100 keep their card. Who knows what will happen next year, but this much is certain: it will continue to become more and more difficult to reach the elite level of the PGA TOUR.

A new year brings about many new beginnings. Our content offering in 2026 starts with our newsletter library. RTL will continue to cover the PGA TOUR, LPGA, and TGL. Alongside the newsletter(s), you will see our content on/in the Golf Channel, The Athletic, Golf Digest, Mayo Media Network, and our YouTube channel. In fact, please go and ​SUBSCRIBE​ today! On Sunday, we announced the re-launch of Preferred Lines as an addition to our growing golf media network. RTL has always been impressed with Joe Idone's original brand and his co-host John Haslbauer. Two of the sharpest, entertaining, and professional young talents in the industry, our collaboration is just the start of something special. TGL coverage is in full swing as we start the PGA TOUR season. Joe and I have collaborated on the ​TGL Show​ , and we continue to supply winning picks to our members for each and every TGL match.

The entire golf betting ecosystem is blowing up. Our collaboration with Pat Mayo and the acquisition of Preferred Lines is just the beginning. Everyone's excited for week one, but we have plenty more in store. Stay tuned, because our mission remains constant week after week, and that is for YOU to become a better bettor!

Sony Open starts in...

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Wai'alae Country Club

Designed in 1927, Wai'alae Country Club is one of the oldest continuous host venues on the PGA TOUR (1965). With rumors circling around the TOUR leaving Hawaii in 2027, if you enjoy this event, I would set your streaming DVR this week. One of 13 par 70 scorecards on the PGA TOUR last year, the total yardage the players face this week is 7,044 yards. Four par 3s (average 192 yards), 12 par 4s (average 437 yards), and two par 5s (average 539 yards) make up the championship layout. The design generally dictates the skills needed in order to contend. Wai'alae is short by TOUR standards, yet with abnormally large green surfaces. WCC is a flat course with small targets off the tee and much larger ones on approach.

Honolulu received a little rain this week. Playing conditions should be perfect for scoring when the tournament begins tomorrow. Temperatures are forecasted in the high 70s, and the rain today should be all the precipitation they will see. We are out in the middle of the Pacific, so there will be some wind. Guess what, RTL readers? We have added an accurate wind forecast link to our newsletter. The trade winds will be in effect during all four rounds. The average breeze is expected to blow in the high teens with gusts well into the 20s along the coast. Even though Wai'alae CC is slightly protected from the predicted northeast wind, groups will have their hands full if they cannot properly control trajectory and spin.

Since the Sentry moved full-time to Hawaii, 70% of Sony Open winners played the week before. Based upon the strength of that history, it somewhat limited the field of outright possibilities. Or did it? The average winner's odds over the past ten years are +10300. Eight of the last 10 winners have started the week at +4000 or greater. Now that The Sentry is gone, all 120 players have a fresh start. The average winning score in that same time period (10 years) is 19.2 under par. The winners have also averaged 24 sub-par scores during the week they won. Does that mean we will need a little bogey avoidance to win? We'll get into that and a whole lot more just below in the outrights breakdown.

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How to win?

Wai'alae Country Club is the second most predictive course on the PGA TOUR, only behind Augusta National Golf Club. That doesn't mean a rookie cannot come in and blow the field away with his talent (and putter), but I strongly suggest a majority of your betting leans have shown a strong affinity for this venue. Three of the last four Sony Opens have ended in a playoff. The combination of a par 70 layout right around 7,000 yards leads to a ton of bunched scoring. As fans, we love it, and as bettors, it tests our resolve. More so than many venues, separating from your peers is difficult at Wai'alae. With that in mind, here are my four most important differentiating details. A player has to excel at more than just these skills, but without them, going from contender to champion will be impossible.

• Our last 10 winners have gained an average of +5.2 strokes on the field with their flatstick. There are a couple of reasons why the putter produces the best opportunity of the four major strokes gained categories. Not all players can putt on Bermudagrass. Based upon that trend, we eliminate nearly half of the field due to their inability to convert birdie putts on this surface. The greens at WCC are huge. They were the sixth-largest greens on TOUR, and players hit them an average of 70% of the time. When the field hits 70% of their GIRs or more, the putter becomes a strict separator.
• Maintaining a sensible level of driving accuracy around these palm tree corners is difficult. The field averaged 57% of their fairways last year. The combination of large putting surfaces and tight fairway targets makes hitting the short grass all the more important. A bunch of pundits are going to favor SG:OTT, but we aren't stopping there. WCC has a number of important tee shots that favor a right-to-left ball flight. A fade for a lefty, and a draw for a righty, I'm filtering for competitors who can tend to control the tee shot with that ball flight pattern. Most won't mention it, but four of the final five holes (14-18) move right to left. Year after year, one player or another gets into trouble because they cannot survive off the tee down the stretch.
• Par 70 scorecards require great approach play. Remove two par 5s, and you’d better be hitting your irons close on the 3s and 4s. The strongest range for approach separation is 150-175 yards. Capitalize on the 400-450 yard par 4s, and you're going to be in contention. With the wind forecast and scoring conditions on the greens, proximity to the hole is your number one priority, T2G. Why is Wai'alae so predictive? This is one of the key reasons why. WCC has a very strong concentration of approaches from 140-185. Hit 'em close from here, and it’s a putting contest.
• Gnarly Bermudagrass lies, 83 bunkers, and plenty of uneven surfaces around the greens will test all 120 in the field. Chipping into the coastal grain and scoring from 30 yards and in are always factors at the Sony Open. How many players have we seen NOT get up and down from that deep, front swale on the par 5 eighteenth? Many a championship chance has been buried by a short pitch to that back right Sunday hole location. Be careful to select scorers who can save par and make birdies from close range. WCC has four (or more) short game birdie chances.

Par 4 scoring, previous positive experience at Wai'alae CC, BoB%, and Bogey Avoidance are all strong considerations alongside these four important factors. Whether the Sony Open is week 1 or week 31, bettors have to treat its predictive nature with respect. Our entire card is a blend of past success and young talent. These non-Scheffler markets are going to be wild weeks. Let's take advantage and get off to a hot start.

Outright Winners - Sony Open

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