The Final Four πŸ†


Semifinals

PALM BEACH GARDENS, FL

The top three on the leaderboard Sunday evening at THE PLAYERS Championship are TGL players! So much for the injury concerns (lol), six of the top ten inhabit the SoFi Center. Unfortunately, for a newly crowned Cameron Young is not one of those who will be heading to Palm Beach Gardens for the playoffs tonight. We have two tilts, the first starting at 6:30 pm ET (both on ESPN) between the Los Angeles Golf Club (3-2) and the Atlanta Drive Golf Club (3-2). Los Angeles holds the tiebreaker (and the second seed) with 26 holes won in Season 2 over Atlanta Drive's 23. In the 9:00 pm ET nightcap, Boston Common Golf (4-1) will take on the Jupiter Links Golf Club (2-2-1). THE PLAYERS stole our attention, but who could forget the electric finish in the final regular-season match between Jupiter Links and The Bay GC? Tom Kim made a hole-in-one, and JLGC won six points on the final three holes to earn the final playoff spot!

The SoFi Cup Semifinals are similar to the NCAA's March Madness; win, and you move on, lose, and it's over. The golf industry is on fire after an unbelievable Sunday at TPC Sawgrass. Just 23 days until round one of the Masters, major season is upon us. Two more weeks of TGL action, and the stage will be set for Magnolia Lane. The early H2H is evenly matched, and who knows what Tiger's team will bring in the encore this evening. Enjoy the action, and let's hit a couple of winners in Season 2's semifinals.

The course

Technically, there are two different courses tonight. In Season 1, TGL Officials used one scorecard for both semifinal matches. They have done it again. The only changes to the course for Matches 16 and 17 are the home holes. Los Angeles and Atlanta feature their team holes in the early match, and Boston and Jupiter utilize their home holes in the second. Why can't we have two courses? Match 16 features a layout measuring 5,797 yards; Match 17 is 5,751 yards. These routings are short by TGL standards. Six thousand yards is always my measuring threshold for length on these par 60 courses. No doubt length will not be as much of a factor as it was in Ponte Vedra Beach! Six Season 2 holes (new) are being used. Our favorites, Stinger and Caverns, are in the first six holes. Seven of the nine remaining holes are repeats from the Season 1 semifinal course. The average par 4 for a playoff match is 409 yards. I realize some of the shorter holes possess more volatility, but two par 3s under 140, and TGL is looking for more eagle and hole-in-one magic. ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

Scorecard πŸ“

Course breakdown for the playoffs

  • The average scorecard yardage for Match 16 is 5,797 yards, and for Match 17 it is 5,751 yards.
  • The layout contains six new Season 2 holes. Five of the nine Triples holes are new.
  • Seven of the nine remaining holes were used in Season 1's playoff course.
  • The average fairway success rate on this scorecard is 63%.
  • In Match 16, Hole 4 will be Fore-O-Fore (ADGC) and Hole 9 will be Showtime (LAGC). In Match 17, Hole 4 will be The Jup Life and Hole 9 will be Storrowed.
  • The average GIR success rate on this layout is 67%.
  • Watch out for penalty strokes, hole history shows over 40 penalty strokes have been awarded on this layout.
  • Average lengths: Par 3s (174 yards), Par 4s (409 yards), and Par 5s (16 = 577, 17 = 568 yards).

Starting lineups and match breakdowns

Lineup card πŸŒπŸ»β€β™‚οΈ

Match 16 order of play and Singles matchups!

  • Los Angeles GC (-135): Justin Rose, Sahith Theegala, Tommy Fleetwood
  • Atlanta Drive GC (+110): Patrick Cantlay, Billy Horschel, Chris Gotterup
  • Los Angeles GC has the honor
  • Justin Rose versus Patrick Cantlay (Holes 10, 13)
  • Sahith Theegala versus Billy Horschel (Holes 11, 14)
  • Tommy Fleetwood versus Chris Gotterup (Holes 12, 15)
  • Team managers: Carl Smith (BCG), Ben Helmrath (ADGC)
  • Sitting out Collin Morikawa (LAGC), Lucas Glover, Justin Thomas (ADGC)

Match 16

What a classic Ryder Cup matchup at the top of the lineup cards! These two teams are very evenly matched, and the regular season records prove it. Injuries affect both sides as we approach tonight. LAGC loses the sixth-ranked player in the world, Collin Morikawa, while Justin Thomas takes a rest for Atlanta Drive. In the regular-season, Los Angeles GC was ranked second in Driving Accuracy and Driving Distance, whereas Atlanta Drive was fifth in Driving Distance. Each side is about equal in GIRs and scrambling. Atlanta Drive makes more putts inside 10'. Where this match gets very interesting is the two formats. LAGC is very good in Triples play. The alternate shot format favors the team that is more accurate. When Los Angeles rolled out Fleetwood, Rose, and Morikawa, they were using three of the top 5 golfers on the planet. Sahith Theegala has been much improved in 2026 on TOUR, but he's not Morikawa, as he is ranked seventy-third in the OWGR.

That being said, Sahith can provide those key moments with his around-the-green acumen. When the flag gets thrown, a little confidence from close range matters. ADGC's Coordinator, Ben Helmrath, is the undisputed strategy king inside the SoFi Center. While his counterpart (Carl Smith) was working at the Stadium Course for Theegala all week, Helmrath was studying the scorecard and building his lineup. On paper, these two teams are even when they play H2H. Throw those two-point opportunities in there, and that will be the difference. Los Angeles GC has yet to prove they can control the Hammer narrative. ADGC holds a +3 season-long differential while LAGC is -4 in Season 2. Where do the Hammers matter most? In Singles! Atlanta Drive is first in Singles Holes Won and second in Points Won in the closing six holes.

  • It's the playoffs, so all of these H2Hs are great. While most are focused on Cantlay and Rose, the key matchup is Tommy Fleetwood and Chris Gotterup. These two go H2H on a short par 3, and a medium-length par 5 to close the match. Fleetwood is ranked number three in the world, and Gotterup has two TOUR wins along with a 3-1 record this season at the SoFi. Chris is arguably a regular-season MVP candidate. Cantlay versus Rose will split, and Horschel’s heroics will be in full view against Theegala. Gotterup must hit his irons close against Fleetwood. Chris has done it all season on the simulator, and if Atlanta is to advance, that must continue.

Lineup card πŸŒπŸ»β€β™‚οΈ

Match 17 order of play and Singles matchups!

  • Boston Common Golf (-160): Rory McIlroy, Keegan Bradley, Adam Scott
  • Jupiter Links GC (+125): Max Homa, Akshay Bhatia, Tom Kim
  • Boston Common Golf has the honor
  • Rory McIlroy versus Max Homa (Holes 10, 13)
  • Keegan Bradley versus Akshay Bhatia (Holes 11, 14)
  • Adam Scott versus Tom Kim (Holes 12, 15)
  • Team managers: Niall O'Connor (BCG), Rob McNamara (JLGC)
  • Sitting out Hideki Matsuyama (BCG), Kevin Kisner, Tiger Woods (JLGC)

Match 17

The books have Boston Common Golf as a heavy favorite. Is there a way that Jupiter Links GC can win? After all, they came close on March 1st when they lost to BCG in overtime (7-6). The key to that regular-season match was a late Singles run. Similar to the comeback they completed against The Bay GC in Match 15 to get into the playoffs. The Jupiter Links lineup is the same, while Boston Common has switched Matsuyama for Scott. Boston is the best team in many categories. First in Driving Accuracy and Distance, Scrambling, GIRs, and what made the biggest difference two weeks ago, Medium Putt Efficiency. Who makes the most putts from 10-30'? The putter, short game, and Hammer strategy are how you win in the SoFi Center. BCG made 50% of their medium putts on March 1st. With six guys so evenly matched from a ball striking perspective, that's the difference maker.

Boston Common is number one in Triples play. They won the most holes and earned the most points. This is where I see a serious problem. Jupiter Links was down at the shift from alternate shot to Singles in four of their five matches in Season 2. That cannot happen tonight. If BCG gets up and maintains a Hammer hold advantage, all the aces in the world won't help. Boston Common's analytics card has made a huge difference in their Hammer success. BCG led the league in Hammer point differential (+6). The next closest team was Atlanta at +3. Jupiter Links finished the season with a +2 differential. Jupiter Links was second in GIRs and Short Putt Efficiency (0-10'). They can keep it close if they survive alternate shot. Both teams are great in Singles play, and ultimately, this one stays closer than the pre-match odds would lead you to believe.

  • If Tiger is not playing, then Tom Kim versus Adam Scott is the key matchup. Kim is electric in the SoFi Center, and Jupiter Links will need him to match (and beat) Scott on every opportunity he can. These two face off on both of the short par 3s. Kim can win both of those with one swing if he knocks it close. The second of those par 3s, is the site of his hole-in-one. Scott is a generational driver of the golf ball, but what happens on Stinger will sway the match. Kim will possibly hit a key putt on nine, and he controls the outcome on the final hole. All of that theater fits perfectly with his Tom "Sim" persona. If he sweeps those moments, the odds will suddenly swing. All of that said... Tom Kim did not get in THE PLAYERS and is ranked 127 in the world. Adam Scott? A T56 on the Stadium Course and 50th on the OWGR.

Betting card - Match Winners

Match 16 Winner

Match 17 Winner

Betting markets are slow to post for TGL.

  • They generally come out after we publish, so compare before you bet as there may be a better line.
  • Follow us on social media for the most up to the minute live betting additions; there will be more bets for tonight's match posted just before the match!

* - Odds can change from site to site. Make sure you shop around before making each bet. Even though a bet is listed, it may have changed since the newsletter was published. FanDuel (FD), Caesars (CS), DraftKings (DK), BetMGM (BM), bet365 (B3), Bet Rivers (BR), Fanatics (FN)


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