The Finals

On January twenty-first, the Atlanta Drive Golf Club beat New York Golf Club 4-0. That was the last time NYGC lost inside the SoFi Center! Since New York's 0-2 start where they were outscored 13-2, the boys from the five boroughs have been the best team in the league. Post TGL week three, NYGC leads the league in holes won, points won, strokes gained total, strokes gained putting, and feet of putts made! An incredible run of TGL golf, can this team be stopped?

It takes points to win inside the SoFi Center and Atlanta Drive has amassed 38 total this season; more than any other franchise. When it comes to closing out matches, they own Singles play earning 23 of those team points in the H2H matches. The SoFi Cup Finals is a best of three series starting with match 1 tonight with the following two matches tomorrow. The third match will only be played if needed. Lineups are set for Match 1 and will be determined for 2 and 3 following tonight's contest. Each of these teams are a tough set to take down. Atlanta Drive is led by their triple FedEx Cup champion lineup, while NYGC is the team that just refuses to lose.

The TGL has been a success. Those inside the league will tell you the response has been extremely positive and viewership numbers have exceeded expectations. Can the league improve, of course, but for a brand-new sports concept, the first trophy should probably go to the team that put this whole thing together.

What is Read The Line’s TGL scorecard? We have predicted 12 of the 17 matches to date correctly (71%). Our overall betting record is 23-12 across the 10 weeks of competition. A 66%-win rate has been a nice addition to the RTL portfolio in Q1!

The format, course, and starting lineups

Holding the honor on the tee holds extra impact in the Finals. The team with the first tee shot of the night also holds the lineup card. They start by picking their first player of the match. Their opponent then reveals their starting three players. The team with the honor can then react with their final two players. Even though we didn't catch this process for Match 1 tonight, something tells me it will be a part of the post-game press conferences this evening as the lineups for matches two and three (if needed) have not been revealed. A unique twist in a process that could be considered arbitrary now has a made for TV moment.

Atlanta Drive won more holes in the semifinals and they have the finals "honor." They will be the first to tee off in matches two and three. New York leads off tonight when Cam Young rips a driver on Alpine. A 535-yard par 4, this is one of my favorite TGL holes. The tee shot and approach both carry a significant cost for missing your target and a huge edge for those that do. The first match tonight starts at 9:00pm ET (ESPN2, ESPN+). Match 2 starts at 7:00pm ET tomorrow night followed by Match 3 (if needed) at 9:00pm ET. Tuesday's matches will be televised on ESPN and ESPN+.

If you have any questions concerning the format, rules of play, etc. just click the link (​TGL)​​​ and head right to the website. The digital/communications team has done a wonderful job of breaking down all you need to know.

Keith's "TGL" Keys 🗞️ A couple of key insights you can claim as your own idea at the water cooler and cocktail party conversations. Mojo rising: Both of these teams are riding a wave of momentum. It's also obvious these guys have bought in and want to win. Three weeks away from the Masters, who can keep their eye(s) on this short-term prize. Putt for dough: These are two of the best putting teams inside the SoFi Center. NY and ATL rank first and second respectively in total feet of putts made; that is not a coincidence for making it to the Finals. HAMMER time: Atlanta Drive has taken advantage of so many HAMMER situations. To capture the Cup, NYGC must win when the orange flag(s) get tossed.

The Finals will use two designs over three matches. There will be one course for Match 1 and 3 (pictured below) and a second course for Match 2. The first Finals layout covers 5,849 yards. Not one par 3 over 200 yards, but the best collection of par 4s we have probably seen this season. It starts with Alpine, a 535-yard par 4 where pressure pushes the psyche on the drive and approach. What a start to the Finals, JT and Cam Young will have their hands full with the opening tee shot. TGL only created 30 holes, and this is match number 18. Many of these holes are familiar to us as well as the scorecard setup. Two par 5s at the turn and the On the Rocks - par 5 finish we have grown accustomed to. If you're looking for an edge, who isn't, ADGC led the league in Singles scoring. Three of their most successful holes this season are found in the final six.

Tuesday night's opening design stretches the players a little more, but does not cross the 6,000-yard mark. I bring this up often, but when The Bay GC and New York GC played in the first match on January 7, that course was 6,418 yards! A lot has changed inside the SoFi Arena since then and NYGC's 9-2 loss. The added distance versus tonight's design comes mainly from the par 5s. The addition of 150+ yards when you add Quick Draw and the always dangerous Pick yer Plunder certainly favor the best par 5 team. It will be interesting to see if the teams change up their lineups at all for the second setting. Both Matt Fitzpatrick and Lucas Glover live locally. In another unique twist, the par order is the same on both courses. Usually, the TGL techs mix up the 3s, 4s, and 5s where they can, but these two championship courses follow the same exact par scorecard.

Atlanta Drive comes in as a heavy favorite. The average OWGR of ADGC is 14; their opponents from NYGC have an average rank of 54! On paper the Georgia boys are impressive, but they also have been playing better on TOUR. Maybe that doesn't matter inside the SoFi Center, but a strong consideration for me. If they plan on using the bench, the difference between the two teams only increases. Lucas Glover just finished third at THE PLAYERS while Matt Fitzpatrick has really struggled this season. I like to think the fourth guy will get a chance to show their skills, but who knows how these guys will handle the lineup card for tomorrow. As of now, here's what we know.

• Finals - Match 1
  • Atlanta Drive Golf Club (-140) - Justin Thomas, Billy Horschel, Patrick Cantlay (Lucas Glover)
  • New York Golf Club (+106) - Cam Young, Rickie Fowler, Xander Schauffele (Matt Fitzpatrick)

ADGC holds the honor for the final two matches. Once tonight is finished, they not only tee off first the rest of the way, but they get to determine their lineup in reaction to what NYGC does. Maybe that doesn't matter as much in golf as it does in the NHL when sending out specific line matchups, but let's argue it does. Glover's coming off the bench ranked thirteenth in the current FedEx Cup standings and twenty-fifth in SG:Total on the PGA TOUR. Conversely, Matt Fitzpatrick is one hundred and second in the FEC rankings and sits at one hundred and twenty-third in SG:Total. Options are good in match play, and Atlanta Drive definitely has a better one over their opponent.

Match breakdown(s)

Finals - Match 1

These two teams attack TGL golf in two different ways. New York Golf Club is a driving machine. They are second in total driving and driving distance. They approach the green from closer than their opponents and hit more GIRs than ADGC. Their better format is Triples in team golf. Even though they are ranked fourth in team putting, they have made plenty of long ones. NY has not been nearly as good on the greens from close range. Atlanta Drive uses a different approach each week; they sucker teams in. In six matches, they have scored 22 HAMMER points and hold a +16-point differential when orange flags are in play. ADGC is by far the best "match play" mentality team.

Atlanta Drive may hit less GIRs, but they lead the league in scrambling (79%). Since putting is harder than most anticipated, scoring from around the green has been a huge edge, especially when points are doubled. Time and time again, Atlanta wins the 60/40 situations. That's how you beat your opponents in match play. When the edge perception is even, throw the HAMMER and win the hole. Horschel, Cantlay, and Thomas are three of the best short game artists on the PGA TOUR. Those skills have been the deciding factor.

Can NYGC ball strike their way to victory? Maybe, but they will need to continue making lengthy putts. In my mind, over two or three matches, the team who can score from close range wins. ADGC makes more putts from inside 10' and when it gets close to the end (of the match) they win more holes. Atlanta holds a 23-12 point edge in Singles play over NYGC. Billy Horschel leads the TGL in Singles points won (8), and JT is one of two TGL players who has yet to lose a Singles hole (5-0-5). The other undefeated Singles guy is Lucas Glover.

• Thomas versus Young: Both JT and Cam can reach the 554-yard par 5 Sterling in two. Thomas' short game grabs a birdie and they win hole 10. Both can reach the 297 -ard par 4 Straight up except a simple driver swing for Thomas is easier to navigate than a soft driver or three wood for Cam. A little indecision goes a long way in match play. Justin will end the season undefeated in Singles.
• Horschel versus Fowler: Nobody has consumed more of the TGL Kool-Aid than Billy Ho. Loot on the Line is a short par 4 test. Fowler has been solid inside SoFi, but I don't see an edge between these two here. On the Rocks has become a big moment hole in many matches. The very short par 3 wedge shot sealed the loss for Los Angeles last week when Tommy Fleetwood missed a 4' birdie putt. This hole has been used in every match. Horschel lives up to the hype and knocks it closer than Rickie and wins it.
• Cantlay versus Schauffele: Two friends teeing off for a TGL title. We all cannot wait to hear the mic'd up comments between these two. Xander has developed into a better player, but Cantlay's a trained killer. Picking an edge on Fallen Pine is tough. The longest par 3 test from the tee, each is awarded a par and they halve the hole. Boomerang is an interesting choice to close the night. Two accuracy driven shots are needed to hit this par 5 in two. Cantlay is far better at hitting FWs and Schauffele secures far more GIRs. Much like their major records, Xander is just more well-rounded. He has made more mid-range putts and is slightly better at scrambling. X marks the spot for the final hole on Monday night.

Finals - Matches 2 and 3

Once the starting lineups are created and betting lines are posted, we will react. We've handicapped every TGL match to date, we won't miss betting on the final day!

Prior to the competition Tuesday night, the GOLF PRO BETTING SHOW will air at 3:00pm ET covering the Texas Children's Houston Open. On-site intelligence, DFS strategy, and the two best golf betting minds breaking down Houston's Memorial Park and the field.

Don't miss the live broadcast on Tuesday afternoon from inside the SoFi Center!

Finals - Match 1 card

Finals - Match 1 ADGC vs. NYGC Finals - Match 1 winner: Atlanta Drive Golf Club (-140 FD) ​ Prop #1 - Match 1 Prop #2 - Match 1​ ​(member content only) ​ Betting markets have been slow to post for TGL. They generally come out after we publish, so compare before you bet as they may have a better line.

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