The Buck Stops Here 🦌
50 shades of greyI find this Fleetwood feeling a bit unsettling. RTL had two of the three members of the Rocket Classic playoff: Chris Kirk (80-1) AND Max Greyserman (40-1). Five sudden-death holes later, and we were left with two runner-up finishers from our outright card. Both Kirk and Greyserman had putts inside 10 feet to win on the first two extra holes, and they failed to convert. That kept the young South African Aldrich Potgieter alive with a chance to win. Potgieter’s storybook week ended with a fairytale birdie finish and his first PGA TOUR victory. The longest player on TOUR won on the shortest hole at Detroit Golf Club. Twenty-three players finished within five shots of the lead on Sunday. More than half of the guys who made the cut (59) finished double digits under par, and we had two players in a three-man playoff. For some reason, I still don’t find solace in that. I love all of you, I love Read The Line, but I cannot stand Sunday’s result. That's a bad beat and one that will fuel me for the remainder of 2025. "We're onto the Quad Cities," and the John Deere Classic. TPC Deere Run is the host venue and has been for many years. Most treat the tractor tourney as a second-class event, but pay attention this week. Just because only seven of the top 50 in the OWGR are here doesn't mean you won't see some sensational golf. In recent years, the Deere has elevated some serious players on TOUR with a win. Jordan Spieth at 20 won for the first time at TPC Deere Run. Remember Bryson's breakthrough win in 2017? Sepp Straka is now ninth in the OWGR and has two wins this season. He won the Deere in 2023 with a closing 62 on Sunday. Davis Thompson (RTL win) blew away the field by four strokes a year ago. Two guys who finished runner-up last year, Michael Thorbjornsen and Luke Clanton are exceptional candidates for your next John Deere superstars. While you enjoy a little BBQ time this holiday weekend, don't forget the Deere. Turn on that outdoor TV on Sunday to catch all the action. Believe me, the fireworks this weekend in the Quad Cities won't be limited to Friday night! Nothing runs like a DeereNormally, a reference to tractors, that title applies to the scoring in the tournament. The average winning score over the past decade at the JDC is 22 under par. Just once in the last five editions has the final tally been beneath 21 under par. We've witnessed a couple of wild-card wins over the years as well. Even Bryson was +5000 when he won at TPC Deere Run. Seven of the last 10 winners had pre-tournament odds over 50-1! The interesting part is that most of those guys are players we know. Ryan Moore, Brian Harman, Lucas Glover, and JT Poston all won here with a considerable betting return. The FEC Playoff storyline(s) only grow greater with five weeks left to get inside the top 70 and a ticket to Memphis. Those who want to earn points this week will need to be accurate. The average green size at TPC Deere Run is 5,500 sq/ft. Those small targets are covered in Bentgrass. Some of the purest putting surfaces on TOUR, guys can make putts. It shows in the strokes gained numbers and final score. The winner will be 20 under par. Vegas set the winning score over-under at 21.5 under par. Back-to-back weeks in the 20s will favor some of the same players. This mid-America two-step on the schedule is a perfect time for the middle-tier birdie makers to move up in standings. Three par 5s and two par 4s under 400 yards, TPCDR presents many scoring opportunities. John Deere Classic starts in...The par 71 scorecard reads 7,289 yards. There are a couple of important long iron shots (like last week) on the par 3s and the par 5 second shots, but for the most part, this is another wedge fest. Forty-one percent of the iron shots are coming from 150 yards and in. By now, you can see it in the average winning score. If the winning total gets into the mid-20s, these guys are not hitting five and six irons all day. Save those swings for the major championships. This week is all about fireworks, and that's why the John Deere fits. Thirteen of the holes carry a birdie rate over 15%. The average winning score is 22 under, and the average number of sub-par scores by the winners is 25. That tells you bogey avoidance is not a thing this week in Illinois. It's summertime in the Midwest, and the highs are predicted to get into the low 90s each tournament day. We aren't going to see much of a breeze until the weekend when a front rolls through. Not only will that bring about a 35% chance of rain on Saturday and Sunday, but we are going to see a complete wind shift for the final round. Thursday, Friday, and Saturday, the breeze will be blowing out of the southwest. On Sunday, you can expect a northwest breeze. Just enough to be uncomfortable on a day where most of these guys trying to win for the first time will already be unsettled. One hundred and fifty-six to start, the top 65 and ties make the weekend, and they will compete for $8.4 million. A cool $1.5 million to the winner is nice, but those 500 FedEx Cup points mean even more at this point. Don't forget, there are 25 fewer 2026 TOUR cards available. Get inside that top 70 and you'll be able to enjoy your fall. LawnmowerDavis Thompson was one of our 11 outright wins last year. Thompson's 126 on the weekend was super impressive. Once the number one amateur player in the world while at Georgia, potential met performance for Davis, and he earned his first TOUR win convincingly. We chose Davis for a couple of reasons, and none was more important than current form. Detroit Golf Club is flat and favors length off the tee, but these two back-to-back venues call for sub-par scoring. Our contenders will share a number of traits with those we picked last week. Should the outright card be exactly the same? No. The target score is in the mid-20s, and the average cutline after 36 holes over the past five years is three under par. The guys just about doubled the average cutline last week, and I expect a similar level of scoring in Silvis. The golf course has received the perfect mix of rain and sun over the last month. The John Deere people should be happy, as we will all see plenty of green. If you want more green on Sunday, fire up the birdie machine. BoB%, birdie streaks, eagles, and players with a high birdie average are all where my sights are set. We need players who have proven they can score at TPCDR and go low in general. The first skill needed to score is putting. Our outrights converted a multitude of birdie chances in Detroit. Across this uneven terrain, this card is filled with guys who are hot and others who have proven they can get hot at TPCDR. The last 10 winners have gained an average of six strokes on the field with their flatstick. If we limit the window to the last five years, we see a very balanced attack from a strokes gained perspective. That makes perfect sense (to me) based upon DA Weibring's design and the TPCDR topography. For a weaker field event, the winner gains 10+ strokes on the field T2G. TPCDR presents a ton of elevation changes across 18 holes. The best ball strikers excel here because they can reliably play off uneven lies. It sounds like hyperbole, but at the John Deere, we want some serious ball strikers. I realize most of them are packing for Scotland, but plenty are here, and they have an advantage. Guys who can hit GIRs are my second focus after the putter. The ability to hit greens depends on two factors: playing from the fairway and iron game. Since both are essential, I weighed those two skills equally as I break down the field. At times, it can be hard to differentiate between two weeks. Especially with all of the Sunday outright success we had last week. Four of our predictions finished inside the top 19 in Detroit. Cam Champ was the furthest back and just five off the winning score. Managing a tendency to take the hot hands and looking for someone new has my attention. You're going to see a wealth of the same names this week across all of the different content platforms. I can separate the two weeks because my PGA eyes do see little differences. When you are choosing those "ball strikers," it's best to favor accuracy this week over length OTT. Is both better, of course, but a player like Scottie Scheffler isn't listed in the field. There are slight differences in the stroke gained par ranges versus the Detroit Golf Club. The par 3s got pushed back, and the par 4s moved to the lower 400s. The 5s are the same length range, but remember, we only get three of them at TPCDR. One extra par 4 and a par of 71 total makes a difference over four days. Davis Thompson came into the John Deere as an exceptionally good par 71 player. I pay attention to par changes, and it always makes a difference.
Par 4 scoring is added to the skill set for this week. Holes six and 14 are both approximately 360 yards. Scoring on these two holes (and the three 5s) takes some expert scrambling ability. Good short game players have an advantage this week. This is a major difference from Detroit. Don't miss this edge. In the last five years, three of the winners have gained more strokes on the field around the green than they did on approach! These greens are small, and they are all surrounded by deep drop-offs and all types of long and short grass lies. You must be a good short game scorer to contend here. Each of these player characteristics lead us straight back to scoring. Eight of the last 10 winners gained over eight strokes on the field on the par 4s. It all adds up and gives us a very precise card. Many of these players are going to perform well in basic models. Take the time to filter for some of these insider factors. I've spent many years studying the playability of golf courses. Our breakdowns are always different than the mainstream content because these small separating factors are the difference between walking to the window with a winning ticket or your wallet. Sepp Straka won here in 2023. Think about his two wins this season: the American Express and Truist Championship. Both of those contests asked for a similar skill set. Who's this year's summer Straka? Scroll below to find out... Outright Winners - John Deere ClassicRead between the linesThe best place to follow news about Read The Line is right here! Do you know what it means to be a member of Read The Line?We provide more outrights, prop bets, H2H matchups, DFS lineups, and One & Done picks. Hit the link above and see for yourself!
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