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Somewhere in south Florida, Luke Donald is smiling while he contemplates thread counts and shampoo catalogs... The United States staged a historic comeback on Sunday to keep the Presidents Cup. While the media center and American golf fans alike consider if Sunday's result will help or hurt our chances in Ireland next year, here are a few top-line takeaways I wish to share after a historic week in the Windy City.

• When the P-Cup goes to Australia in 2028, run it back with Geoff Ogilvy. Consistency is the key to success in these team events, and I was extremely impressed with Geoff at Medinah. It's still a small sample size, but
• Jackson Koivun made himself a star in the moment. Taking down the International's best player with swagger points leads me to believe this kid has serious staying power.
• Scottie Scheffler in US Team events is a serious problem. Scheffler is 6-10-3 in partner formats during the Ryder Cup and Presidents Cup. Scheffler is 1-8 in Foursomes (alternate shot). This one is not a small sample size.
• Finally, talent played an enormous role in the US winning on Sunday. That gap will not be nearly as big at Adare Manor. Between now and next September, PGA of America leaders must take a forensic look at Medinah with the goal of developing a winning strategy for the Ryder Cup.

I could expound on all of those points at length, but alas, there are FedEx Cup points to dole out. A reduced field of 120 players is heading to Ivins, Utah, for the Bank of Utah Championship. The top 65 and ties compete over the weekend for $6 million. Two players ranked top 50 in the OWGR are joined by three Presidents Cup competitors. Jackson Koivun is the favorite to win on the odds board, while Nick Taylor and Christiaan Bezuidenhout are there to solidify their 2027 Tour cards. (talent gap.) This is the third year in a row for the Black Desert Resort on the PGA Tour. In the spring of 2025, the Black Desert Resort also hosted the LPGA. RTL has covered three events at the BD Resort over the past two years! In line with the average winning score of 22.5 under par in two men's editions, our friends in Las Vegas have set the final score over/under at the same number (261.5). I can't wait to watch as birdies and black lava provide a wonderful combination of superb scoring and crazy caroms off rocks. Just seven events left on the fall schedule; let's dive in!

Bank of Utah Championship starts in...

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Black canvas

The first green on the Black Desert Course sits at 3,000' above sea level. A nice little +3.6% carry adjustment for elevation should be added to the par 71, 7,421-yard scorecard. Four par 3s, 11 par 4s, and three par 5s make up the layout. No doubt a shootout for these players, we expect the winning score to be in the low 20s under par. One winner theme at Black Desert has been "new" champions. Two years ago, Matt McCarty had just earned his card through the Korn Ferry Tour, while Michael Brennan (2025) entered the Bank of Utah Championship by sponsor's exemption; two very cool stories. The scenes surrounding this setting are amazing. Red rock mountains surround a giant black field of jettison lava rock. The complete opposite of Pebble Beach, Black Desert has some serious scenery of its own. Eighteen holes host 50 bunkers and three holes where water comes into play. Framed by the lava field, you will find 51 acres of fairway. Approximately twice as much as your average major championship away from Augusta National, the men have plenty of room to land their tee shot. Which is part of the reason why the field averaged 303 yards off the tee in 2025. We won't let our perspective be completely skewed by ball speed, but when you consider the driving accuracy by the field was 82%, total driving does catch our attention.

One thing to keep in mind are FEC points. Just three domestic events remain on the calendar. Unless you are looking to cross the border into Mexico or fly to Japan, the time is now to collect your card. The top 10 (51-60) earn temporary Signature status in February while the top 100 keep their Tour card. That's why 44 of the players ranked 51 to 110 on the points list are competing in Utah. For two years we have watched and analyzed this resort course. Black Desert is an entertaining venue. One year ago, 10 under par was good enough for a T33. To crack the top 10, one had to be 15 under par. That's the storyline this week; scoring. The average cutline after two editions is -3.5 under par. Still a new venue on the PGA Tour, Black Desert has a number of interesting (and ironic) features.

Ranked first in 2025 and second in 2024 for reloading (penalties), you do not hear that often when presented with some of the widest fairways on the Tour. Fact is, miss anything green, and you are in the lava rocks. Unplayable in most cases, we love when the guys take on a good rock shot! Another interesting characteristic of the BDC is putting difficulty. Black Desert ranked well inside the top 10 for putting difficulty from five to 15'. Not 25' or longer, the biggest birdie range. Yet the average winning score after two years is 23 under par! Both events and the LPGA's visit were really fun to watch. Take a moment to read through our winning skill set and the outright predictions. If you have watched the Bank of Utah before, they make sense. And if you haven't watched, well it is time you did even if it is just for an hour over the fall football weekend.

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How to win?

Winners drive for show and putt for dough in the Black Desert. Sometimes the old adage applies. Ball speed and birdies have built both top 10s. We only have two winners, but when you look at the collection of players in the top 10 and analyze their success, there are a couple of specific themes. I said this in 2024 when we first came to this venue and reiterated it again last year. Good putters should always be favored at new venues on Tour for three very valuable reasons. First, they make putts. Second, they are excellent at controlling the delivery speed of the ball, and third, they know how to correctly read greens. McCarty and Brennan have gained an average of six strokes on the field with their flatstick. Together they averaged 26.5 sub-par scores in the year they won. Converting birdie opportunities on these greens is not easy, and accomplished putters hold an advantage. Statistically, putts under five feet, between five feet and 15’, and over 15' all rank in the top 10 most difficult to make on the PGA Tour schedule. Convert on these greens and you will separate in this shootout.
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The second analytic edge we see after three editions (2 PGA Tour, 1 LPGA) of covering the Black Desert Course is total driving. If you are straight AND long, there's a considerable advantage. "Hey Keith, isn't that the case every week?" A majority of weeks you don't have 51 acres of fairway. Exceed 180 mph in ball speed and it is tough to be accurate inside 30-yard-wide fairways. Send it over 188 mph and the ball starts to morph out of shape. The bombers have plenty of room at Black Desert, so the driver can help you separate. Toss in a little elevation and even Matt McCarty is flying it 315 off the tee. Michael Brennan put on a show last year OTT. The two averaged +5.7 strokes SG: OTT on the field in the year they won. Three par 5s and two drivable par 4s give the ball speed mavens five serious scoring chances per round. Keep in mind, to achieve 22 or 23 under par you will need at least 30 to 32 scoring chances inside of 25' on the greens. Those five holes can supply 20 of them, and the more length you have the closer you are to converting those five opportunities.
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One of the easiest courses on the PGA Tour for catching GIRs, proximity plays a bigger role than just simply securing the putting surface. The field hit 72.5% of their GIRs in 2025. That's almost 10% higher than the PGA Tour average. The field hit 76% of their GIRs in 2024! Over 43% of approach shots are going to fall between 150 and 200 yards. When breaking down who we think will win, these aren't wedge shots. Who in this field that can throw darts with a seven or eight iron? By diving deep into that bucket, a few iron players catch my attention. Solid ball strikers at 175 yards are also of interest because the better your impact is, the easier it is to adjust accurately for elevation and terrain. To compound the challenge, Black Desert has a number of uphill and downhill approach shots. Players will climb over 300' over the course of 18 holes. Making adjustments for height and air will complicate things. By focusing on the best ball strikers in that eight iron range, we will create the most scoring chances.
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There are two types of scrambling. One helps you save par, and the second allows you to score from close range, for example, on par 5s and reachable par 4s. Scrambling analytics differ from SG: ARG because they include putting. More of a true "short game" statistic, in shootout weeks I tend to lean toward scrambling over ARG acumen. Again, three par 5s and two short par 4s offer five scrambling opportunities per round. While many will overlook this skill in a birdiefest contest, I believe it bolsters our chances of predicting the winner. The green surrounds are closely mown, and there are enough bumps, swales, and shelves to make these shots quite difficult. With desert growing conditions, the lies get pretty tight around the putting surfaces. Trust me, the last thing you need is doubt creeping in when you are staring across the green at a lava field and you have a 30-yard pitch from a thin downhill lie! The field data reflects a difficult test. Last year, BDC ranked the sixth most difficult course for around-the-green shots off closely mown areas and in the sand. Granted, most guys just aren't hitting it there based on the approach range and surface area of these greens, but when they do... look out.
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One final outright consideration that is important when we only have two years of PGA Tour information is comp courses. Specific players perform in the desert. I'm looking at results across PGA West's Stadium Course, TPC Craig Ranch, and TPC Scottsdale. Scottsdale is extremely relevant as Tom Weiskopf designed both courses; Black Desert and the WM Phoenix Open venue. Memorial Park Golf Course makes sense along with El Cardonal at Diamante (wide fairways and scoring). TPC Scottsdale and Memorial Park might have the most comparative fields, but the skill sets for all apply and that's what is most important. With the time change, east coast fans are going to catch most of this competition in the evening hours. The Bank of Utah had been a great addition to the fall series. The setting is striking and the scoring makes the Sunday finish super entertaining. Follow these critical observations and analytics. Put together a diversified card that emphasizes some scrambling and plenty of speed. If you do, I bet there will be a bunch of winning tickets coming your way and thus a trip to the bank.

Outright Winners - Bank of Utah Championship

LPGA

Hanging Chad

While the golf world's attention was fixed on the Presidents Cup, Yuna Nishimura carded a 66 on Sunday at the Walmart Championship, won by five strokes, and finished the week at 21 under par. Hey fans, the tournament was only THREE rounds! Nishimura even made three bogeys. Yuna's stat line for the week: two eagles, 20 birdies, 36 of 39 fairways hit (92%), 47 of 54 GIRs (87%), and 83 putts (lol). Our own Jin Hee Im finished two strokes off the lead in the B Flight won by In Gee Chun, Chanettee Wannasaen, and Aki Iwai who all finished second at 16 under par. The Walmart has always been a volatile event, and the risk of being redundant, it is a shame that one of the last three continental tournaments on the LPGA schedule for 2026 goes against the PGA Tour's flagship fall exhibition match. I wonder if frustrating schedules and storylines led to more significant news on the LPGA wire Monday. Chad Coleman, Chief Marketing Officer, who started his role in January, announced he was leaving the women's tour after less than nine months in the role. Coleman, who was the Chief Brand Officer at Dude Perfect prior to the LPGA, left the role to pursue another post with a greater upside. Tours can be tough, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him return to the YouTube ecosystem. Lord knows the guys at gals at Good Good could surely use the help...
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From the fairways of northwest Arkansas, the LPGA starts their fall trip west for six weeks. The next time we see the world's best women in the 48 states, it will be early November. Halfway to Asia, the LPGA pulls over for a quick stop in Hawaii at the LOTTE Championship presented by Hoakalei. A field of 120 women will compete for $3 million as the top 65 and ties play the weekend. This event goes back to 2012, but our current host, Hoakalei Country Club, began their run in 2022. Designed by Ernie Els in 2009, HCC is a fantastic island examination of tight fairways, trees, trade winds, and sand. With an average winning score of 14.5 under par, those who played in Arkansas better bring their bogey avoidance acumen.

Hawaii hurricane?

For the first time in 2026, the women are going to compete on Seashore paspalum. It never ceases to amaze me how much of an affect agronomy has on leaderboards. Trade winds and turf, those are the two biggest challenges this par 72 course measuring 6,566 yards presents. Nine of the 10 par 4s are under 400 yards in length, yet the winning score is in the mid-teens. Nishimura was 21 under par after three rounds last week! A quick microcosm to summarize this venue comes on the 155-yard par 3 fourth hole. When the wind gets up in the afternoon as it always does out on the islands, this approach shot really catches your attention. You will see it on the coverage, and if a player cannot flight her ball, adapt to changing wind conditions, or chip, they are in for a short week. To compound the wind effect, Hurricane Lala that pummeled Hawaii in mid-August took out a bunch of trees. Not that palm trees provided significant protection from the wind, but you get the point. The landscape is more wide open, which will make the forecast have even more of an impact on scoring.

The Big Easy made Hoakalei CC far from easy. The course presents 112 bunkers, and 13 holes have water in play. The players have 30 acres of fairway to hit across 18 holes. Over the past four years, when HCC has been the host, an average of 43.3 players have finished the week under par. The average cutline at Hoakalei is one over par in that time. The largest green surfaces on the LPGA in the United States (7,500 sq/ft), so players must have a positive playing history on Seashore paspalum. The greens will be slow and sticky. The change in agronomy affects putting, short game, and approach shots. The ladies must make a quick adjustment. I strongly believe this is why the leaderboards are also pretty "sticky" at the LOTTE. The same players pop year after year in Hawaii. Those readers familiar with this resort course, don't get confused. The LPGA modifies the routing for the tournament.

• Front nine (actual hole): 1(9), 2(10), 3(11), 4(12), 5(13), 6(14), 7(15), 8(16), 9(17)
• Back nine (actual hole): 10(1), 11(2), 12(3), 13(4), 14(5), 15(6), 16(7), 17(8), 18(18)

Since the event falls on the schedule while players are preparing for the autumn Asia swing, 13 of the top 25 players in the Rolex World Rankings are competing. One of two "full-ish" field events left on the LPGA calendar before the CME Group Tour Championship points cutoff; the rank and file really need to play well. Enjoy the women for one more week. Following the LOTTE, they will be gone from our TV guides for five weeks. This is the last time they compete on our time clock. Once they head to Asia, all of the golf gets played overnight. Take in the television coverage, because of all the tests on the tour, this is a fun one when the wind blows.

How to win?

It takes a LOT to win at Hoakalei Country Club. When you look at the last few leaderboards, and specifically the top 10s, there is a very specific skill set needed to contend and win at Hoakalei CC. HCC is one of the most well-balanced strokes gained tests on tour outside of the majors. Contenders need all four primary skills working. The average gain off the tee by the leaders is just over two strokes on the field. Two inches of paspalum rough aren't going to scare anyone. To be honest, even with 100+ bunkers, the LPGA's weekly elite don't miss many fairways. Those at the top of the LOTTE leaderboards at Hoakalei hit 75% of their fairways. Week to week, the top 10s are usually higher for fairway accuracy. Couple that with very little penalty for missing the short grass, and you see why length powers the leaders more than accuracy. Not to mention, with several trees missing after Hurricane Lala, players will be even less wary when they are trying to hit their target OTT.
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Conversely, we are going to see a high average of GIRs. These are the largest greens (on average) on the LPGA schedule in the United States. GIR values are going to be inflated. Approach play is still vital, but we need to compare proximity, putting, and scoring to get a real sense of who the best iron players are. First, proximity keeps those pesky three putts off the card. Paspalum greens are stereotypically slow. Banging putts is easy for amateurs, but not for touring professionals. Strokes gained on Seashore paspalum is a consideration. I'm also looking at the birdie to bogey ratio. Last week at Pinnacle, it was all gas, no brake. Hoakalei differentiates the field differently. Players will face a bunch of bogey moments. Sub-par scores matter, but how many pars can the contenders save? Getting back to approach play, with 90% of the par 4s under 400 yards, 10 of the 18 iron shots in happen from 100-150 yards. That scoring zone means high-lofted irons that must be controlled. Wind veterans also catch my attention. Approach play is the biggest key to victory, but don't just compare strokes gained metrics. By diving deeper into proximity and trajectory control, our outright predictions become far more valuable.
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Putting on any type of Paspalum favors those flatstickers who can adjust quickly to different speeds within the same round. The greens are slower and much grainier. Greens in different locations throughout the course will roll inconsistently. Adjust! It takes patience and a whole lotta hit at the bottom of your stroke to get the ball to the hole. Adding more hit (speed) can throw some players off. Couple that with 7,500 sq/ft greens, and three-putting becomes a problem. Players need great lag putting and solid saves from under eight feet. The difficulty of pulling that off can be measured in the last few leaderboards. The top 10s gain an average of less than two strokes on the field with their flatstick. If there's one place you want the putter working, it is the par 5s. Of the three par categories, players score on the 5s. Most weeks, that is the truth, but at HCC, it is imperative. Many of the medium-length par 3s and 4s are where the field gets into trouble.
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Paspalum is a tricky grass to chip from. The best island players have positive experience scoring from close range. Those same 10s gained an average of two strokes on the field, and they were 70% successful in their scrambling efforts. Seventy percent is well above the tour average. This key is really the edge we will use to finalize our betting card. There will be some windy moments, and when you miss targets, players will need to save par. The average winning score at HCC is almost four strokes lower than last week, and this tournament has FOUR rounds. Some of these short par 4s are also close enough for long pitches on approach. All architects have tendencies. Elite player architects tend to shape their settings in line with their skill sets. Ernie Els was an incredible short game artist. There's no doubt this week's winner will need to show some of that skill herself. Throw in 112 bunkers, and sand success is also important. Much like grainy Bermudagrass in Florida, bounce can be your enemy into the grain. Great short game aficionados in the Sunshine State possess the secret sauce needed to score on Paspalum.
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I wish this event was played coming home from the spring Asia swing on the schedule. At a time of year when football and general golf malaise doesn't misalign the viewers. If you do get a moment this weekend, watch the women. We won't see them again until November 12 at the ANNIKA. I promise the tournament venue will catch your attention; it is a fun one. When you do watch, plan on seeing these four women in the mix on Sunday night.

Outright Winners - LOTTE Championship

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