Russell Hogan

DUBLIN, OH

Russell Henley birdied his last four holes on Sunday to close the Charles Schwab Challenge. In doing so, Henley won for the second time in as many seasons at the home of one of golf's greatest players. Winning at BAY Hill and Colonial is no small feat, and for a player who has been typecast, Russell is experiencing a late-30s career renaissance. Seven players have won on the PGA TOUR in 2025 and 2026 (YTD): Henley, Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Cameron Young, Justin Rose, JJ Spaun, and Chris Gotterup. All of the 2025 major championship winners are on that list. Henley is keeping good company, and with six guys in contention late on Sunday, it was exciting to see a player go win it. It would have been nice if that was JJ Spaun or Alex Smalley, but alas, their putters did NOT get the memo. Smalley made our 10th podium finish on the PGA TOUR this season without a win (18 events).

From Colonial, we head to Columbus, Ohio. A Signature Field of 72 players descends specifically on the small suburban town of Dublin for The Memorial Tournament. The 50th edition of Jack's tournament, if you looked up "Signature Series" in the dictionary, The Memorial would be the example. When it comes to the player experience, only Augusta National beats the Golden Bear's hospitality. There's $20 million in the purse, and an elevated $4 million for first place. Make those One & Done picks count, as this is the highest purse we will see for the rest of 2026. The top 50 and ties (or those within 10 shots of the lead) earn the right to play the weekend and a chance to dip into that purse.

That nice Nicklaus hospitality stops at the first tee as Muirfield Village Golf Club is annually one of the toughest tests on the PGA TOUR. Perfectly suited for Scottie Scheffler, the world's number one player, is going for three Memorial wins in a row!

The Memorial Tournament starts in...

​

More than milkshakes

Seven of the last 10 winners of The Memorial held pre-tournament odds of +2200 or less. Four of the last five winners were under that same pre-Thursday value. Sorry, AON 5 guys, this week isn't for you. The strongest piece of evidence for making that assumption is Scottie Scheffler. Scheffler is going for a three-peat at Muirfield Village this week. If Scottie completes the trifecta, he will be the first player since Steve Stricker at the John Deere Classic to do so (2009, 2010, 2011). Muirfield Village pays homage to Jack's favorite golf courses: Muirfield and Augusta National Golf Club. A par 72 layout that now stretches 7,569 yards. Sixty-eight bunkers decorate the landscape, and there are 13 holes where water comes into play. The average winning score since the 2021 renovation is 10 under par. I'm not a Nicklaus Design fan, but this is an excellent test of golf. The members here must carry a machete when they play, because it is lush. Before we get into the field notes from my on-site observations, let's check the forecast.

What are the course conditions at Muirfield Village like? Let's dive into it.

• Columbus received a ton of rain last week. Over seven inches of rain has fallen in May, and the 2026 total rainfall is three inches more than the annual average for this region. Ohio has had an up-and-down spring, but in recent weeks, the conditions have been great for growing grass. Four inches of rough on the GCSAA report does not describe what these players will be dealing with. The fairways are lined, and the greens are surrounded with some of the densest and lush grass I have seen all season. Players must find the fairway.
• Muirfield Village has a Precision-Air system. The ability to push and pull moisture out of the putting surfaces will keep the greens firm. Watching players hit practice rounds into the greens, there is a noticeable bounce. How much rain we receive over the weekend may change their texture, but on Thursday and Friday, they will be ready to reject poorly struck iron shots.
• Why is ARG such an important skill at MVGC? First, the bunkers. Outside of major championships and Riviera, Muirfield Village has some of the most difficult greenside bunkers on the PGA TOUR. Favor some sand play. The second factor is long rough around the putting surfaces. Players need a ton of speed to get through this rough, and if they are close to the hole, expect to make an 8 to 10' putt to save par after a very good chip/pitch.

For its length, Muirfield Village has small greens. The average green size is 5,000 sq/ft. To compound the challenge, the average par 3 length is 202 yards, and the average par 4 is 448 yards. A majority of approaches are played from over 175 yards. Just 24 acres of fairway and 13 penalty areas (water), accuracy is truly the most important skill every player will need. Fourteen of the 18 holes have a scoring average over par. Only the four par 5s maintain a sub-par statistical scoring opportunity. The closing three holes are three of the toughest on the course. Don't expect anyone to finish on Sunday as Russell Henley did at Colonial with three birdies. Three pars would get the job in most cases! Five sudden death playoffs in the last 10 years, the scoring congestion we witnessed at Aronimink and Colonial will continue.

Read The Line media ⤵️

How to win?

In four years, Scottie Scheffler has not finished outside the top 3 at The Memorial. In those four starts, Scheffler has averaged gaining 14.3 strokes total on the field. Fourteen strokes per start! That wasn't just one or two spike years; his lowest SG: TOT since 2021 is 12.1, and the highest is 15.5! By the way, the low year (+12), Scottie lost 8.5 strokes putting. LOL. Since the strokes gained era started in 2004, Scheffler's fit at Muirfield Village sets the SG standard. It makes sense that studying Scottie is the key to contending and winning this week. In sixteen of the last 22 years, Muirfield Village favored accuracy over length. Looking back over the last decade, Bryson DeChambeau is the only winner that stands out, but in 2018, when he won, DeChambeau ended the season ranked 25th in driving distance on the PGA TOUR. Accuracy is in Jack's DNA, and that mindset is exemplified all over this design.

The rough is brutal. Players have to hit the fairway if they are going to have any chance to play the weekend, let alone get involved late on Sunday. The combination of Total Driving and Driving Accuracy sets the tone for what any player can accomplish at MVGC. Approach play and short game skill will allow the contenders to separate, but without getting the ball in the short grass, your approach chances are cut in half (or worse). It sounds funny at nearly 7,600 yards and with four par 5s, but MVGC isn't a driver-heavy course. Play for the best position off the tee, and you will play the weekend.

The approach buckets are long at Muirfield Village. Name a better long iron player in the 60s, 70s, and 80s than Jack Nicklaus. I'll hang up and listen... There wasn't. Nicklaus reminds us every year in his Tuesday Press Conference what is important to him when it comes to a championship caliber skill set, and mid- to long-iron play is numero uno on that list. Certain low sections of the fairways are going to be soft. The ability to control spin this week is an essential approach skill. Similar to Colonial, I'm sticking with the best approach players in superb (recent) form. Scheffler gained an average of 9.4 strokes over the last four years with his iron game on the field. If you want to beat him this week, separating on approach is step one.

Ten of the past 11 years, MVGC has been one of the top 5 most difficult courses on TOUR to gain strokes ARG. Side note, it has been THE toughest on approach each of the last three years. I digress, top 5 from the bunkers, top 5 from the rough, players have another significant opportunity to differentiate their leaderboard position with their short game. The last 10 winners have gained an equal amount of strokes on the field with their wedge around the green as they do with their putter. I could apply that sentence to ANGC, Riviera, and Muirfield Village. One of the strongest T2G correlated courses, winning The Memorial requires several short game shots to score on the 5s and survive everywhere else.

The greens will be firm and fast in rounds one and two. They will still be fast over the weekend, and in both cases, players can make putts. MVGC's greens aren't difficult to putt; they are difficult to find. The field hit the greens less than 56% of the time (on average). Making 6-8' putts is more key than converting birdie chances. Don't mistake what I'm saying, making birdie putts matters, but producing a successful birdie-to-bogey ratio is the blueprint. Winners make an average of 20 sub-par scores, and the average winning score is 12 under par over the last decade. Five of the last six years, MVGC was ranked in the top 5 most difficult courses on the PGA TOUR. The truth is, one can just keep going. Jack and The Memorial Tournament Committee work tirelessly to create a wonderful player experience and a stern test.

A couple of comps courses I use to handicap The Memorial are obvious: Augusta National and Riviera CC. Both of which have been mentioned already. I would also look at TPC Sawgrass and TPC Scottsdale. Scottsdale? Yes, the crossover on those two leaderboards provides an interesting connection. Scottsdale is an easier venue, but the skill set required to win at both is similar. Look at the leaderboards. Will this be a good preview for Shinnecock Hills Golf Club? Yes and no. For example, will short game be supremely important at Shinnecock? Yes, but those will be closely mown areas while MVGC's greens are surrounded by thick, dense, lush, penal rough. The sand texture would also be very different.

Players need a US Open mindset to contend at Jack's home, and that's one specific skill I would be watching in advance of our national championship. When asked why Scottie was so good at Muirfield Village, Jack responded by pointing to his head and said, “his mind.” Scheffler’s signature ability to game plan is the final skill needed. Pick the players who avoid making big numbers, make a few putts, and you may have a chance to take down the current king at Jack’s place.

Outright Winners - The Memorial Tournament

LPGA

Attention shoppers!

For the third time in five years, RTL predicts the winner of the ShopRite LPGA. Although it is only a three -day event, 19-1 still pays! Celine Boutier played well early on a very windy Saturday, putting herself in position for a Sunday charge. A final round 66 with six birdies and a closing 32 on the back nine gave France another big win this weekend. I'm not sure if Boutier is a big PSG fan, but both can certainly celebrate along with our readers.

From the Atlantic Ocean, the LPGA travels to the West Coast and Pacific Palisades, to be exact, for the 81st United States Women's Open. A field of 156 players will compete for a $12+ million purse and a $2+ million first-place prize. Worth more than that medal the USGA gives you, a win also includes a 10-year exemption into the women's national championship. Riviera Country Club is the seventeenth venue to host the US Women's Open since the first championship in 1946. Maja Stark is our defending champion. Curious about her chances to successfully defend, the last repeat winner was Karrie Webb in 2001. Prior to Webb, Annika Sorenstam did it in 1995 and 1996. Betsy King, Hollis Stacy, Susie Berning, Donna Caponi, and Mickey Wright have all successfully defended their national titles. Seven in total, that's a bunch for 80 years! The last debutant to win was A Lim Kim in 2020.

All top 10 in the Rolex World Rankings are competing. In fact, the first 46 on the Rolex board are in the field. What most would consider the most prestigious women's major championship, many players have their sights set on playing out their own Hollywood ending...

"Riv"

For the fourth time in its history, and the first time for the women's national championship, Riviera Country Club plays host to the USGA. Best known for the PGA TOUR's Genesis Invitational in February, in the coming years, Riviera will also host the 2028 Olympics and the Men's US Open in 2031. A wonderful George Thomas track (1927), "The Riv," will test all aspects of a player's game. The par 71 scorecard stretches 6,699 yards for the US Women's Open. Fifty-eight perfectly placed bunkers provide the only penalty areas, as there are no water holes on this Pacific Palisades paradise. A wonderful set of winding fairways gives way to several incredible green complexes. I know the venue moves annually, but the USGA has a scoring goal in mind for each championship. The average winning score of this open event is 7.6 under par over the last decade. We have seen three playoffs to decide the winner in that time frame, and three other US Women's Opens played in the state of California during those 10 years as well.

What will firm conditions mean for the field of LPGA, LET, and amateur stars? It is not often that the LPGA competes on a regular PGA TOUR course. We have plenty of player data from each TOUR event, but how does that apply to the women's game? That's the ultimate RTL benefit of covering both tours. The average green size at Riviera is 7,500 sq/ft, and those putting surfaces are covered in a typical California Poa Annua. Surrounding those intricate greens are Kikuyu rough and collars. The approaches and fairways are Kikuyu as well. Will the introduction of Kikuyu grass to the LPGA tour make a big difference? It might, more native to Australia, pay attention to those ladies coming from down under, as they are far more familiar with this type of grass. The fairways all seem to bend at Riviera. Thomas was an expert at keeping players off kilter. As much as most fans think of the Riviera CC clubhouse sitting high above the eighteenth green, the course is quite flat. The first tee shot and final hole have some significant terrain changes, but overall, Riviera is more about left to right than up and down.

Will Riviera give us a Hollywood ending? The LPGA has played 10 events in the Los Angeles region since RTL started covering the tour in 2022. There have been some very interesting trends in that time. One player in particular loves LA, and we have won with her already this year! As always, when it comes to handicapping the world's best women, we will dive deeper than the analytics. I have some historic notes from each of those events and the ability to compare how LPGA skills will apply to an annual PGA TOUR venue.

How to win?

The US Women's Open is truly a unique event on the LPGA schedule. Unlike any other tournament the world's best women play, this one rewards THE best ball strikers. The last eight Opens were captured by queens of off-the-tee power and around the green grace. Their approach ability was consistently sharp, and the putter kept them out of trouble. Saso (twice), Stark, Ariya Jutanugarn, Corpuz, and Minjee Lee were all at the height of their impact ability when they took this title home. To handicap this field, we must pay attention to the best ball strikers. Too many times we have gotten caught up in the putter or wedge, and what this event always comes down to is the elite OTT and APP players. Take that trend and multiply it by five as we head to one of the most difficult tests on the West Coast for professional golf.

Keep it out of the Kikuyu grass. That mandate starts off the tee. Many LPGA Official Scorecards list one yardage, and then it plays shorter each day. The USGA does not subscribe to that policy. They make it tough for these women, and that's the first reason why you need the best ball strikers. It is going to play long even with the firm conditions. Longer than a weekly LPGA event. Does this favor Jeeno and Nelly? Of course it does, and it will make it even harder to beat them. Then again, they are the two best female players on the planet by a wide margin. Is it tough to beat Scottie Scheffler? Yes! I like Total Driving for this situation. Who are the longest and most accurate players OTT. We know from our on-site Genesis coverage that Riviera favors a slight left-to-right ball flight. A power fade for righties is the ideal trajectory.

Riv has above-average-sized greens at 7,500 sq/ft. Covered in that Pacific Poa Annua, they will putt much smoother than what we always see in February. Much like one of Riviera's great comp courses, Augusta National, it is tough to gain a ton of strokes on the greens. I believe an average putter can win this week. I would (of course) rather run with a great putter, but the priority is going to be ball striking over the flatstick. These larger-than-average targets will require expert proximity to have a chance to score. Approach play from the fairway is key. Kikuyu fairways are a different surface to play from. The better iron players will adjust quicker to the new turf. Pickers over diggers, with firm conditions, we will be taking the best women with a shallow angle of attack. No pelts, please; adjustments from the Kikuyu rough are also going to be needed. Riviera winners always have a great week with their irons, and this National Championship will be no different.

PGA TOUR pros hit the greens less than 60% of the time at Riviera. The TOUR average is 66%. Compound the challenge with firm conditions, and here is where the secret sauce to win the US Open is hidden: short game. Riviera has some of the most difficult bunkers on the PGA TOUR. They are deep and flat at the bottom. It takes a ton of speed and confidence to hit par-saving shots from them. Then, the closely mown or long Kikuyu is another problem. These women are going to miss GIRs, and very few of the elite players are great around the green. Some of the best ball strikers are extremely poor at pitching and chipping. The ability to play from tee TO green is imperative. The best ARG competitors in this field of 156 players have a measurable edge on their opponents. The average par 4 is over 400 yards; scrambling is going to be a factor.

The firm conditions and the USGA's fascination with even par scores do scare me. If the navy jackets make this track too firm, luck may play a part in deciding this major championship. If that's the case, our best chance to win falls with the women on our outright list. Besides the four basic strokes gained categories, par 4 scoring, and birdie to bogey ratio are key. Straight bogey avoidance also helps us determine the best par savers. Riviera is a well-rounded test, and one where a majority of the women will not break par. That's good news, because it eliminates several weekly contenders because they lack the complete list of skills needed to win.

Outright Winners - US Women's Open

RTL Weekly Editorials 📰

Do you want to be a better bettor?

Become a member of Read The Line today!

​​​​​

Think you have a gambling problem? Reach out for help. Read The line promotes responsible gaming. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit these online resources:

​The National Council on Problem Gambling​

​Council on Compulsive Gaming - New Jersey​