Post-traumatic stress

Golf mirrors life in so many ways. Throughout the course of an 18-hole round, we experience so many different emotions. The ultimate highs of a long birdie putt contrast with the super lows of driving the ball out of bounds. In many ways, that's why we all have such a strong connection to the game. When it comes to tournament golf, there's the feeling of missing the cut on a Friday versus the elation of lifting the trophy on Sunday. Golf did it to us again this past weekend. The news of Tiger Woods' latest car crash had us all feeling low on Friday. Plenty of pundits have chimed in on this already, so I'll save you from reading another reaction. Move forward to Sunday, and we all get to feel the most wonderful of highs watching Gary Woodland win. Woodland's win might have been the only other storyline that could have saved our golf mood after Friday's disappointment. Congratulations to Gary, his family, and team. Woodland is one of the finest people you will ever meet, and if the golf gods are going to favor one man on the course, he definitely deserves it.

It's tough to complain about another runner-up finish on the PGA TOUR, considering who won. That's now five "seconds" on TOUR since the Sony Open. Fifty percent of the 2026 events we have finished as runner-up. 50%! In the last 12+ months, RTL has had 16 runner-up finishes. It's time to reverse the trend as we head from Houston to San Antonio for the Valero Texas Open. No PGA TOUR event has been in the same city longer than the Texas Open. For the fifth time, TPC San Antonio will be the last event at which one can earn access to Magnolia Lane next week with a win. Money and FedEx Cup points aside, that's one sub-plot I am always cheering for this week. A field of 132 will be playing for $9.8 million, and that opportunity to play in this year's first major championship.

Valero Texas Open starts in...

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Oaks Course

Greg Norman is not going to win any golf course architecture awards for the Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio, but this venue does provide a stern test for the TOUR's best. With an average winning score over the last decade of 15 under par, the top 65 and ties have their hands full getting to the weekend with an average cutline over the last 10 years of +1.5 over par! What is it about this layout that the field finds so difficult? Vegas feels frisky about this edition as they set the winning score over/under at -16.5 under par. The par 72 scorecard measures 7,438 yards. Five holes hold an average score under par. Four of those five holes are the par 5s. A tremendous test of par 4s, this layout reminds us of TPC Deere Run, or Innisbrook, a couple of weeks ago. Forget the wide open landing areas of Memorial Park; you must keep the ball in play on the Oaks Course. Couple that with 64 bunkers and some extreme green complexes, Norman must have been in a bad mood that month when he designed the course. The fairway accuracy percentage, GIR percentage, and successful scrambling percentage are all significantly lower than the weekly TOUR average.

The average green size on the Oaks Course is 6,400 sq/ft. The putting surfaces are overseeded in Poa Trvialis and promote a fair amount of 3-putts. The average pre-tournament winner's odds have been all over the place since the event landed the week before Augusta. Getting back to my original point about Greg Norman's design, you won't hear the architecture geeks opine over the Oaks Course as they will for Riviera or Muirfield Village, but Norman has created one of the best TPC tests on TOUR. More on the contending skill set in a second, it's interesting how some of the most boring PGA TOUR courses give us the lowest average winning score. Walking the Oaks Course, it reminds you of Southern Texas. The terrain is varied, and the turf is rock hard. The jagged edges of the bunkers look like an angry Landman designed them after a long week in West Texas. Most golf courses increase difficulty as you approach the end, but the Oaks Course features three of the easiest holes relative to par in the last five. Knowing how to play TPC San Antonio is important. The Oaks Course consistently ranks in the top 5 most predictive courses on TOUR, and much like next week is not the place where we look for debutant winners.

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How to win?

The most recent contenders and winners of the Valero Texas Open provide two very specific paths to having a successful week in San Antonio. The first player pathway involves incredible ball striking. Corey Conners is the archetype player for this example. Hit more fairways and greens than any other player in the field, and don't lose any strokes chipping and putting. If you believe in the ball striking path, here's where I would pay attention. We want players who rate well on the Total Driving leaderboard. Driving accuracy and SG: OTT also count for this conversation. Diving deeper off the tee, the Oaks Course favors a left-to-right ball flight. A proven record for good driving in windy conditions is also preferred. Greg Norman was a top-five driver all-time in men's professional golf. It makes sense that he would reward great drivers on his designs.

The approach angle for ball striking purposes is a bit bipolar. TPC San Antonio's par 3s average 201 yards, while you need great skill inside of 100 yards. That unique mix of long/mid iron and wedge play is why the Oaks Course is predictive. The ability to knock it close from 75 yards and 215 yards is not a common set of complementary skills on TOUR. Easier to find a couple of leans when it comes to believing in the ball striking route. I'll say both pathways require above-average putting. The most important key to saving strokes on the putting surfaces starts with approach putting. Limit your three putting and make those par-saving chances from under 8'. I use 8' as a marker because that is where the PGA TOUR statistically makes 50% of their putts. Everything inside that value will be made by the best players that week. It's always easy to say, "make more putts inside..." and that's the reason why.

The second path to contending (and winning) starts at the green complex and works its way back to the tee. Players have succeeded in San Antonio by putting the lights out and scoring from inside 100 yards. Brian Harman, Ryan Gerard, and Tom Hoge all had a successful Texas Open last year, and none of them gained strokes OTT. The secret to this second success route is the short game. Scoring around the green and converting a majority of your mid-range and close putts will help you get it done. When it comes to the short game, you must master the sand. TPC San Antonio has one of the most penalizing sets of bunkers on the PGA TOUR. These hazards are defined by steep faces and jagged edges. Saving par from these sandy lies is the quickest way to differentiate yourself from the field. The par 5s are the best scoring chances on the Oaks Course. All four have a scoring average under par, yet they aren't easily hit in two shots. Par 5 scoring tests your scoring wedges in San Antonio. Scrambling on the 5s and the short seventeenth hole are vital to playing your way into the mix.

Only one player in the top 17 on the 2025 leaderboard was a Valero rookie. There's some stickiness to this venue. Yes, Corey Conners won by Monday Qualifying; golf has plenty of outliers. If you're trying to build out a winning card, I strongly suggest going with Oaks Course experience. Past Valero reps and par 5 scoring, I'm also favoring a healthy balance of BoB% and Bogey Avoidance. The comp courses I'm using are Silverado North, TPC Deere Run, Innisbrook, and TPC Southwind. Maybe even a little Muirfield Village. Venues where accuracy is important and short game gives you an edge. Look at those leaderboards, and you'll see the same names we attach to TPC San Antonio. The favorites will be thinking about Augusta National and, therefore, trying to save energy for a massive week down Magnolia Lane. Does that mean Ludvig Åberg will not try this week? No. Rather, Åberg is not going to put in any extra work on the range over the course of the week. Major Championship weeks are a huge mental and physical drain, and conserving energy going in is a proven successful strategy.

Outright Winners - Valero Texas Open

LPGA

Back to back

Hyo Joo Kim holds off Nelly Korda (again) and takes home her second trophy in as many weeks on the LPGA tour. Kim collected 49 birdies and five eagles in her two back-to-back wins, scoring a combined 44 under par! No wonder Nelly could not catch her! Two 61s in the Ford Championship, along with a 63 and 66 in San Francisco, there's little doubt who the hottest golfer in the world (man or woman) is right now. Hyo Joo's second win gave RTL readers their second win of the season as well. Can Kim win three in a row at the Aramco Championship? It sounds impossible, but it wasn't long ago (2024) that Korda collected four wins in a row. Did you know where she did it? Nelly started in California, then Arizona, followed by Las Vegas, and then Houston. Just like Korda, Kim is headed to Shadow Creek in Las Vegas for three wins in a row. Unlike Nelly, who won the match play in Las Vegas, Hyo Joo will have to contend with a full field of 120 players. With just two events and three weeks before the women's first major championship, all the stars are out in Sin City. Twenty-four of the top 25 players on the Rolex Rankings are trying to make the weekend cut and compete for $4 million.

Shadow Creek

Tom Fazio took a piece of the Nevada Desert and created a unique oasis in 1989. The Shadow Creek Golf Club is a marvel of modern agronomy. Once inside the gate, one would think they were closer to Aspen, Colorado than the Las Vegas Strip. A tournament-ready venue, officials can stretch this course to almost any length. A par 72 scorecard measuring 6,765 yards presents a stout test for the LPGA. I have walked these wonderful fairways. That will be an incredible edge in trying to determine who will contend and ultimately win. My first impression of the playability was the putting surfaces; they were wild. A true target test, Fazio demands accuracy from your tee shot to the last putt. I enjoyed the golf course, but competing in a tournament takes this examination to another level. The fairways are tight, and each tee shot presents you with either a bunker or a penalty area. Nine holes have water in play, and the course has 74 bunkers. The elevation changes are crazy considering the Vegas landscape. The amount of soil dumped on this footprint before the shapers came in must have been a world record.

The LPGA Match Play event has been contested here since 2021. Unfortunately, not a stroke play event (except qualifying in 2024), so we have basically no historical data to research. Match play leaderboards do give a great perspective on who plays well at Steve Wynn's wonderland. One note, going from the Match Play to a stroke play event, the ninth and eighteenth holes go back to their normal place in the routing. Eighteen is an awesome risk-reward par 5. It belongs at the end of each round. In fact, the close at Shadow Creek has a ton of scoring volatility. The par 4 fifteenth hole has a creek in play for the length of the hole, then the par 5 sixteenth, a super small par 3 target for the seventeenth hole, and the aforementioned par 5 eighteenth. Not many venues in worldwide professional golf can capture a player's attention like this close. The LPGA is focused on finding the best venues for its events. Shadow Creek should remain a mainstay on their schedule. It is a beautiful test of golf for these women. One that will engage the simplest parts of their game. Which parts are those? Keep reading to find out!

How to win?

My first impression of playing Shadow Creek started at the Practice Facility. The turf was immaculate. Part of the virgin look is maintained by a lack of traffic, but it also serves as a precursor for the day. Keep your ball in play at SCGC, and you will have an impeccable lie. The ball sits up on the Ryegrass overseed in the fairway. It is very similar to hitting off Zoysia. The best ball strikers excel at Shadow Creek because their ball contact is better. The second characteristic that caught my attention was the practice green. It wasn't the speed. I have putted on extremely fast greens many times. It was the combination of speed and undulation. A parallel to Augusta National or the Quail Hollow Club quickly came to mind. If ANGC is a 10, this practice green gave me the impression: get ready for an eight or better. The combination of those two course traits left me with eyes wide open before I even approached the first tee shot. Let's break this down a little further.

We favored good putters last week, and we are going there again. You must be a great putter (or great at SCGC) to score. These Fazio green complexes are defined by shelves, swales, and speed. There's a three-putt waiting on every green for an average putter. With the season continuing to take form from an analytics perspective, our analysis gets sharper and sharper. I know this venue lacks stroke play history, but five years of LPGA talent taking this place on is significant. Three-putt avoidance, putts per round, putts per GIR, and SG: Putt are all key to developing an accurate outright card again. Even in the desert, we are on Bentgrass. These surfaces are some of the best-maintained greens these women will putt on all year. If you are a flatstick aficionado, you have a significant edge on the field.

Finding a safe landing area off the tee was not easy. Every tee shot was challenged by a creek or a bunker. It's still unbelievable to me how much slope is out there as well. The Las Vegas desert is flat. Shadow Creek is defined by elevation changes and uneven lies. Putting the ball in play will be at a premium. We have seen this in the contenders of the Match Play. Stroke play for 72 holes only further weights the driving accuracy edge. Many of the holes seem long, but between the arid desert air and the elevation of Vegas, the ball will carry at Shadow Creek. Accuracy and length are always an advantage, but you cannot start using a driver and miss even once or twice. Never the longest player, I have a knack for being accurate. I really enjoyed my day at SCGC. Others in my group who could not keep the ball in play did not.

Great iron players are going to love these fairways. The best ball strikers will have an opportunity to separate with their trajectory and spin control. The ball just sits up as if it is on a small tee. To some, that sounds great; to a tour player, it will add spin and launch. If you cannot control those shot characteristics under normal turf conditions, good luck this week in Vegas! Much like Memorial Park, the rough is not super penal. Get too far off the fairway, and you'll be cooked, but miss by just a little and you will be able to serve up a GIR. Players who can minimize their misses and keep the ball in play will make the weekend. All of the top 10 in the Rolex Rankings are playing, so this will be a great measure for the Chevron Championship in a couple of weeks. The Houston Open will help too, since Memorial Park is the new venue for the Chevron.

Tom took his time with all 74 of the bunkers and placed them in diabolical locations. Similar to Valero and different from the Ford Championship, Shadow Creek calls for an excellent short game. Scrambling on these par 5s is especially key to scoring. Seven of the 10 par 4s are over 400 yards. The women are going to miss some greens. Getting up and down, scoring from close range, and hitting the correct landing areas on these greens is key. Add par 4 scoring, bunker play, and scrambling to the skill set for Shadow Creek. Walking off the eighteenth green, I felt as if every aspect of my game was tested from an accuracy perspective. There were definitely moments when you hit good shots where you could score. Bogey avoidance and a solid birdie-to-bogey ratio are my last points for this narrative. The women could play a major championship here, the course is that good. It would be one of those majors that allows scoring, but overall, a great test.

Outright Winners - Aramco Championship

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