Tangled up in Blue 😨
Brotherly loveDORAL, FL No, this is not a preview of the PGA Championship in Philadelphia. Matt Fitzpatrick just helped Alex Fitzpatrick earn a PGA TOUR card with their team victory in the bayou. The Zurich Classic winners have now combined for five wins in the last six weeks on two tours. I doubt anyone had that on their bingo card to start the 2026 season! The final leaderboard was a wild collection of names in New Orleans. Very few of which are here in Miami. Seventy-two players in the field competing for 72-holes and $20 million. A cool $3.6 million for first place, the elite players who have chosen to play in the Cadillac Championship are going to be truly tested. If you're new to following golf, welcome to Trump National Doral. If you have been a TOUR fan for years, welcome back. The PGA TOUR started the Doral Open back in the 1960s. This original Dick Wilson design was a mainstay on the TOUR until 2016. In 2007, the event was elevated to a WGC event. A decade of the world's best descended on Doral to compete in March, leading into Augusta. You're going to hear a million comparisons this week between Masters Champions and Doral winners. The connection is there. Tiger Woods, Adam Scott, Nick Faldo, Patrick Reed, Ben Crenshaw, Dustin Johnson, and Phil Mickelson are all winners at both venues. The final year of the WGC Championship was 2016. A decade later, the PGA TOUR returns with an elite field. I won't call it a "signature field" because a number of the biggest names in golf have taken the week off. No, Rory or Ludvig, I cannot help but wonder why a couple of perfect player fits for this layout are at home. Two major championships and three Signature events in six weeks will do it. We all know change is coming to the PGA TOUR schedule in the coming years. If this stretch of two months is a test case, I believe the players are telling us something... Cadillac Championship starts in...Resort golf?They call it the Blue Monster. The Trump National Resort has gone through many changes since the early 60s. In all of that time, one thing has remained constant: the Blue Course has been an incredible test of golf. A par 72 design stretching 7,739 yards (ouch), there's little doubt the guys are going to have their hands full. One hundred and three bunkers and 13 holes have water in play. The average par 5 is 611 yards! Aren't those the scoring holes? Based upon the layout and agronomy, Bermudagrass everywhere, some natural comparisons to other difficult Florida venues are appropriate. Bay Hill and PGA National certainly come to mind. I've mentioned Augusta National, but TPC Twin Cities has some relevance, and Torrey Pines South. As you think about those venues, a certain style of player starts to enter your mind. As I walk around the property, the first thing that stands out, besides the 22' golf plated Trump statue, is the lack of rough. The Miami region has witnessed great growing conditions in recent weeks. Whatever agronomical choices have been made are a conscious choice. Looking at the forecast, that may be why the rough is down. Or, quite honestly, it might just be a normal practice around the Blue. You don't need to make this place any more difficult. Since the Hanse renovation, a number of the water penalty areas have been brought closer into play. A perfect example is the first hole. What was a ho-hum straight par 5 ripe for scoring, now features a green complex bordered by a lake. Sure, bail out to the opposite side, but then you are playing toward the penalty area. I realize these guys can do that, but with the wind included, an easy birdie opportunity is made much more challenging. The average winning score during the WGC Championship, most of which was after the Hanse redo, is -11.8 under par. Vegas set the winning score over/under at -12.5. Much of that final total is going to be wind-dependent. Please keep an eye on the real-time wind button (above) if you get into any daily wagering as we do. The course is in impeccable shape. There will be scoring opportunities; these guys are that good. What will be interesting in the transition to Bermudagrass. The TOUR hasn't visited a completely covered Bermudagrass venue yet. Scoring around these greens is going to be grainy. The pure Florida venues always can make these guys a little uneasy, and you sense that this week, walking the grounds. Into the grain chips are nearly impossible. A popular topic for player concern, we will cover the short game even more in the next couple of paragraphs. Read The Line media ⤵️How to win?To Scottie or not to Scottie? Trump National Doral's Blue Monster is a great course fit for the number one player in the world, Scottie Scheffler. There's just one small issue: if you just use 2026 as your sample size, Scottie Scheffler may not be the best player in the world. Matt Fitzpatrick and his three wins decided to take the week off. Rory McIlroy and his green wardrobe have done the same, but seven of the 10 best players in the OWGR are here. Can they catch and surpass Scheffler? The Blue Course, nicknamed the Blue Monster, is an extreme test of golf. Before we get to all of the trouble, let me give you some good news from on-site. As of this morning, the greens are not rock hard. They will continue to firm up after Sunday's deluge, but due to the humidity levels, it is impossible for anything to dry out completely. The second helpful on-site observation is about the rough. It is spotty at best. Overall, that is good, but there will come a time when every player who finds the rough will catch a bad break. I posted a picture on X showing the random growth pattern the Bermudagrass rough has taken on. Hitting fairways and greens is always good, so we'll focus our attention there. Off the tee, we want elite drivers of the golf ball. I'm not solely going after ball speed like so many pundits. I do believe it will give you an edge, but a ton of yardage is tied up on the par 3s and 5s on this course. Half of the par 4s are under 450 yards long. That's a driver and a wedge or 3-wood, nine iron. Just keep the ball out of trouble off the tee. Grabbing those GIRs is going to be a little more of a concern. The greens here are very big. When it comes to Florida golf course stereotypes, Doral checks all the boxes: bunkers everywhere, large greens, water, and wind. That last one is really important. The Hanse upgrade in 2014 created more championship hole locations. As such, with pins along the edges of these surfaces, guys are going to miss greens. Before I go there, due to the size of these surfaces, proximity becomes a huge factor. With so many 200+ yard approaches, if you are looking for the ultimate player edge on the Blue, it is mid- and long-iron play. I've been watching a bunch of pitching and chipping. These green surrounds are super grainy. You are going to see a bunch of putting from off the green. Managing your scoring chances from close range is going to be even more important than the tee ball by the end of the week. Getting up and down and scoring on par 3s is one key that few will talk about. We have a 608 and 667 yard par 5 on the back nine. These guys are long, but a majority will not get there in two, and those who do get close will be greenside. That means the third shot on the par 5s is a massive scoring differentiator. Successful scramblers will be climbing that leaderboard. I've also heard a bunch of talk about the bunkers. This collection of 100+ hazards is tough. Better bunker players will keep their round momentum going, while others will lose strokes. Maintain a strong birdie-to-bogey ratio. Around the green skill in South Florida is a niche skill. I like players who have proven they can play with grain. Approach putting is my biggest concern on the putting surfaces. These greens are big, and with the wind and general difficulty of the approaches, guys are going to get 50+ foot putts. Even though Scottie is ranked 135th on TOUR for approaches over 200 yards, he leads the PGA TOUR in SG: ARG and SG: Total. Lol. Did I mention Scheffler's driver is a weapon, too? Lag it close from everywhere and remove pressure when you can on this course. With all of this stickiness in the air, the greens are just as grainy as the surrounds. Florida success does not guarantee future gains, but historically, those who can play on Bermudagrass tend to have success at Doral. We will try to maximize our Scottie return should he win, but overall, I'm looking in other places for this week's outright winner. Outright Winners - Cadillac ChampionshipLPGAOh, MexicoIn five starts this season, Nelly Korda has won twice and finished runner-up three times. This latest win was very impressive. Korda led the Chevron Championship from wire to wire. At no point during the final 36 holes did Korda lead by less than four shots. Nelly was in complete control on a golf course suitable for a major championship. Thirty-seven players finished under par, the cutline was +2, and it truly tested every aspect of each player's game. I'm a little surprised many of the LPGA's elite did not play their way inside the top 20. So much of the early week rhetoric involved why the superstar players do not win more majors. Well... be careful what you wish for. Nelly is in full flight and will be a very strong favorite for the remainder of this season. Much like Scottie has disrupted odds boards for the better part of three years, our LPGA handicapping is going to face a similar challenge. Thankfully, Nelly does not play every week, but guess what? Korda leads a field of 128 players down to Mexico for the MEXICO Riviera Maya Open at Mayakoba. Who knows, maybe she'll get bored and spend more time at the beach than the practice range... El CamaleónThe El Camaleón golf course at Mayakoba is a familiar venue across all of the professional tours. Host to LIV Golf in 2023 and 2024, the PGA TOUR played the World Wide Technologies Championship here from 2007-2022, and the LPGA returned to Mexico last year using this venue. Chizzy Iwai is the defending champion, and her ball-striking record since she joined the LPGA falls right in line with the other El Camaleón champions.
Before returning in 2025, the last time the LPGA found itself crossing the border was in 2017 for the Lorena Ochoa Match Play. Sixty-four ladies played for $1.2 million that week. This field (128) is competing for $2.5 million this week, and $375,000 for first. Only 11 of the top 50 players in the world are competing. For the second year in a row, this event falls in a tough spot on the schedule. The week after a long, grueling test at Memorial Park, many of the names in women's professional golf are simply taking the week off before heading east. There are four events until the US Women's Open. Continue to keep an eye on the contenders because if Nelly keeps it rolling, we are going to need some solid challengers to her 2026 run. El Camaleón GC is a par 72 layout measuring 6,583 yards. For the men, this is a positional test. The women can use their driver freely. Only four holes have water in play, but you must keep it out of the trees. Get a little wild off the tee, and that ball is lost in these Mangrove woods. Due to the location, the ladies will be playing on Paspalum surfaces. That sticky blade of grass causes the greens to roll slowly, and the rough to be on the shorter side and not nearly as penal. If you recall, the men played the course as a par 71; the eighteenth hole has been converted to a par 5 for the LPGA’s event. The polar opposite of last week, accuracy is the key to contending, and not length. Controlling your golf ball gets you through the 36-hole cut to the top 65 and ties. That control will serve you well at the next couple of venues. The tour next heads to the northeast and will play two events in New Jersey. Both of those layouts are going to force the players to play positional golf. Needless to say, not only do we want to win this week, but we also want to use the leaderboard going forward. How to win?The collection of past winners at El Camaleón really tells the outright story. Keeping the ball in play is the primary measuring stick. The men's events held at this venue had an average score of 20 under par. Chizzy Iwai won at 12 under last year, and she lapped the field. The runner-up was six under par. I realize we only have one year’s worth of information, but that trend will probably hold again for everyone except Nelly. Bogey Avoidance is where I'm going to start this outright narrative. With an average par 3 length of 149 yards and four par 5s, the women are going to score. What we saw last year was the accumulation of a bunch of bogeys as well. Maintaining a balance between under par and over is the primary goal. The ability to do that is specifically controlled by around the green ability and putting on these Paspalum surfaces. We don't see this grass very often on the LPGA. Paspalum is a seaside grass that we always experience when the ocean is nearby. It's a resilient turf but can be spongy and putt very slowly. It will be an adjustment after a major championship. The best putters not only read greens well, but they are also incredible at controlling their delivery speed. Their approach (lag) putting acumen helps them separate in any field, and especially in one as weak as this one. On Sunday a year ago, the top 9 finishers all gained with their flatsick on the field. That was not a coincidence. Sometimes the phrase "resort course" can be an oxymoron. I'm no architect, but if I were commissioned to design a course adjacent to an all-inclusive resort, El Camaleón is the exact opposite of what I would produce. Each hole sits alone on the property. They are all fabulously framed by mangroves and the beach. The problem is, you cannot play from either. One hole even has a cave you must hit over. Believe me, not a problem for a large majority of professionals, but this course is exacting. When it comes to ball striking, let's start off the tee. The leaders all gained strokes with their tee shots. A majority of those gains were from hitting the fairway. We went with three accurate OTT players last year on our outright card, and two of them finished inside the top 9. The best drivers have an edge on El Camaleón. This Mayakoba maze amongst the mangrove trees has some average-sized green complexes. Accumulating GIRs is a priority, but I'm combining that trait with proximity to the hole. The top 5 were all great on approach. What was surprising, not all of the top 25 had a solid approach performance. Many of the contenders struggled a bit with their iron game. The deciding factor here is SG: T2G. All of the top players last year were very good T2G. Driving was the leading skill, and the remaining two were split pretty evenly. Which makes sense, if a player was weak on approach, they were great around the green and vice versa. I bring this up because it shows there are two paths to victory when it comes to ball striking. The average par 4 is under 400 yards. A much shorter test than last week, good par 4 performers can jump up this leaderboard. Our complete approach last year to handicapping this event was spot on. Looking back at last year's prediction(s) and the results, it becomes clear who can and who cannot contend over 72 holes. The characteristics needed to win at El Camaleón are quite specific. I'm taking those players who have shown the ability to maintain a positive birdie-to-bogey ratio on accuracy-driven courses. Since the strength of field is limited, and Nelly is involved, I am going to keep the outright card super tight. Let's get a win from one of them and bolster the bottom line with another great week on the prop boards. Outright Winners - MEXICO Riviera Maya OpenRTL Weekly Editorials 📰Do you want to be a better bettor?Become a member of Read The Line today!
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