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We all read enough Masters media to last a lifetime each year. With that in mind, I'm going to take a very direct approach with this week's newsletter. Time is short in preparation for the year's first major championship and let's be honest, nobody who stays in a hotel requests the Times terrific writing over USA Today's bullet points. Here's what is going to happen at Augusta National Golf Club this week.
I believe we need to tread lightly down the prospects of a LIV contender. Cam, Brooks, and DJ are very capable, but the Top 25 in the world have played at least five times head-to-head since the start of the new year. I know Scottie, Rahm, and Rory are ready to battle.
Unfortunately, mother nature wants to take her hand as the lead player. The weather predicted for the Masters is unfortunate. Heavy rain is expected starting Thursday evening and extending all the way into Sunday afternoon. During that period, there's a greater than 80% chance of precipitation and an accumulation of over 2" predicted. A front is moving in Thursday night and the temperature will drop significantly from the mid 80's on Thursday to the low 60's on Saturday. Whether or not Tiger's back will survive the weekend is the least of our worries.
The Masters is the most prestigious and innovative tournament in the world, if anyone can handle the anxiety of the weather's uncertainty, they can. When it comes to stress, better yet pressure, Augusta National applies and handles it like no other venue.
The Masters is the most predictive tournament on the PGA TOUR, so trends play a huge role in helping determine our winner.
One trend I believe might be broken this season is successfully defending your Masters title. It has only happened three times (Nicklaus 1965-66, Faldo 1989-90, Woods 2001-02). To do so, Scottie will need to shed a recent pitfall; no defending champion has finished inside the Top 10 the following year since 2007! With six wins in just 14 months, he is on the kind of heater to get it done, but that storyline is worth mentioning.
This is the 87th playing of the Masters. The most coveted coat in all of sports brings with it a lot of attention. Let's put the weather aside and just admire for a moment what it takes to even be considered at the highest level as a contender. Winning the Masters can make a emotionless DJ cry, bookend a career like Tiger's, and add legendary status to one of these young superstars. For Rory McIlroy it has become the Holy Grail. Cemented in the Hall of Fame, he sees the green jacket as an opportunity to reach immortality in this game.
We'll get into the details for what it will take to win. Just remember come Sunday, whoever does don that green jacket has achieved one of their greatest dreams. In a sentence, that is what makes the Masters so very special.
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The more things change, the more they stay the same.
There are three primary skills needed to win. The Masters is the most predictive tournament on the schedule. It is played on the same golf course year after year by the same collection of players. Fifty-two competitors have arrived this year from last year's tournament at the same time of year. They will face spring conditions in Augusta, Georgia just as they did a year ago or for several years in a row. Those conditions on the same course will require a very specific set of skills. That Liam Neeson list hasn't changed for two decades.
We KNOW what it takes to win at Augusta National. Change the 13th hole and all you do is make it more like ANGC with the renovation. In fact, let's use this year's substantial change to the course to prove a point.
Those changes sounded significant, but the reality is these guys will still score on that hole. It was the easiest hole relative to par for a reason. I love the renovation, but again it doesn't change the skills needed to contend and win this week. Stick very tight to the plan and pick bombers with a high ball flight. Trust those with great long iron skill and a creative/consistent short game. What about the putter?
You don't have to be a great putter to win at ANGC. The greens are so severe and fast even the best are on their heels. Two putting is the name of the game, and this is why Will Zalatoris putts well here and not many other places. Hideki and Adam Scott won at Augusta. When Tiger won in 2019, his SG:Putting stats didn't even get him in the Top 20 for the week. The average rank of the winners over the last eight years on the greens in strokes gained is twelfth! Make sure they can roll it under pressure (sorry JT) and concentrate more on the three skills stressed above.
When in doubt... pick these guys.
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