Coro(ry)nation

HILTON HEAD, SC

There's an old saying, "the trend is your friend." Thousands of hours were spent researching and developing wagering content for The Masters, and guess what? Rory McIlroy did not pay attention to any of them. McIlroy broke two of the trends we heard the most leading into the first major championship of the season. You cannot repeat at Augusta National? You cannot take three weeks off and win? Turns out he didn't take three weeks off. In his post-tournament press conference, Rory told stories of numerous trips to Augusta, Georgia. Rather than compete in Texas, the back-to-back Masters winner spent his time studying Jones' retreat. The result was a second Green Jacket and another amazing feat on his resume, making him the greatest European player of all time. No question. Six Major championships, 41 worldwide wins, and six winning Ryder Cup Teams. I love Faldo, but Rory’s resume is second to none on that continent.

What a week in Augusta. The Masters is not just the best week for patrons and players; for Read The Line, it is the lighthouse that steers our ship. A proper reminder of how far our company has come in a very short time. I am very thankful for the invitation to ANGC's Press Building. The Masters means a myriad of things to so many people. For RTL, it is the annual moment I am reminded how fortunate we are to have so much support in golf. I know we came close with Cameron, and his time will come. And our time will come as well, now onto Hilton Head.

Nine of the top 10, and 41 of the top 50 players in the world, take the short drive from Augusta, Georgia, down to Hilton Head Island for the RBC Heritage. One of the best tournament settings on the PGA TOUR, a field of 82 players will play 72-holes for $20 million. A terrific $3.6 million for first, our defending champion is Justin Thomas. Thomas completed a two-plus-year comeback by winning in a playoff over Andrew Novak. I love bringing that up because it is a great reminder of the mix of players we see in this Signature event. Fifty-three players competed in the Masters. Throw in another 29 from the TOUR, many of whom had to play their way in and travel to the Low Country in fantastic form. In our fourth year with a $20 million purse, the elite players have plenty of history for us to focus on.

RBC Heritage starts in...

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Underground love

Harbour Town Golf Links has been a fixture on the PGA TOUR for decades. Another example of Pete Dye's versatility and the ability to transform a simple setting into a risk-reward retreat. This par 71 scorecard measuring 7,243 yards was exposed when the TOUR transformed the Heritage into a Signature Series event. What used to be a full-field tournament populated by the middle tier of the PGA TOUR now has the best players in the world competing. Needless to say, Wesley Bryan and Satoshi Kodiara aren't claiming past champion status on Hilton Head Island. The average winning score jumped from 15 under par to 17 under par once the switch was made three years ago. With an elevated field, tournament officials were forced to restore some teeth in Dye's design. In comes five-time RBC Heritage winner Davis Love III. The golf links reopened in November to rave reviews. Will a little tender loving care make a difference for the best players in the world? We are about to find out.

When we hear the words restoration, we immediately look for changes. Let me save you some time. A majority of the work that was done on the golf course happened underground. In speaking with those involved in the project, it is amazing what they accomplished in such a short amount of time. Greens go through a process called compaction; they shrink in size. Restoring the original Pete Dye putting surfaces improves competitive playability. Simply put, it adds more hole locations. The surface is healthier. As such, the texture is firmer, and the speed is more consistent hole to hole. Updating the bunkers and bulkheads works the same way. By transforming this golf course from the (under)ground up, officials will get the field's attention. Since the switch to a Signature event, our winners are JT, Scottie, and Fitz. Not quite the long shot crew, I think we need to be careful how deep we go on an 80+ man field, filled with nine of the top 10 players in the world coming off a very exacting test at Augusta National. Forget fatigue for a second, a number of these guys are going to be ready to roll. Who is favored then? Scroll down.

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How to win?

In an odd twist of golf handicapping, many of the skills we featured last week at Augusta National apply to Harbor Town Golf Links. The biggest difference in skill set between the two is Driving Accuracy. Seventeen of the last Heritages favored accuracy over length off the tee. Since we made the move to a Signature event, I have tried to uncover any analytics that display a slight lean toward power based on the increase in world ranking average. It just doesn't exist. This is a positional golf course much like Waialae Country Club or Innisbrook. Players are consistently forced to common layup targets from the tee box. Two of my favorite course comps this week are Sedgefield Country Club and TPC River Highlands. Take, for example, Dye's design at TPC River Highlands. Many tee shots are forced, but if you play aggressively, the rewards are there. That's the edge I'm looking for off the tee. Walking around and watching players in the practice area, I love guys who use a mini driver. Just the perfect amount of attack and control, that's the mindset we want, especially in a no-cut event.

Harbour Town GL has some of the smallest greens on TOUR (average 3,700 sq/ft). The second smallest greens behind Pebble Beach, small will feel tiny when you consider not just the water table, but the restoration as well. Crisp approach play, much like The Masters, is priority number one. Thankfully, the range of approaches is much closer than ANGC. Great wedge players who can control their trajectory and spin are the focus. I will add long iron play on the par 5s is an important edge, but overall, the best from 100-150 yards create the most scoring chances. Historically, these greens were not the toughest to putt. Back to Poa Trivialis, we have tons of recent experience to reference. When it comes to the different aspects of putting, approach (lag) putting is not my concern on these small surfaces. Who can give me bonus putting? Cash in several 20 to 25 footers and make 99% of putts inside 8'. That's my flatstick focus.

Back to the par 4 scorers, as a par 71, we add an extra one and drop a par 5. A double whammy for scoring, the par 4 guys gain an even bigger edge when you consider the loss of that extra "5" scoring chance. Once again, similar to last week, course reps really help. I believe local knowledge will be even more important in 2026. The ball is going to bounce this week in some weird directions. Managing in and out of the 54 bunkers will be different. Those who have found themselves all across this venue will own an edge over those who may have never visited a specific greenside bunker or collection area. The complement of local knowledge and short game is my secret sauce for the RBC. Of all the different possible skills we can compare, after approach, that's what is most important.

You can hear it from the players in the press room. The course looks the same, but the features feel different. Harbour Town requires a fine touch. Getting back to around the green play, this is going to be the second most important skill required, considering the turf conditions. It was firm last year, and six of the top 20 SG: ARG players finished in the top 7! The reason is two-fold. First, saving par and maintaining a great birdie to bogey ratio. The three signature winners averaged 21 sub-par scores, yet the average winning score among them is 18 under par. The second short game advantage comes from 50 yards and in for scoring. Three par 5s and the short ninth hole all test you with a short scoring opportunity. Scramblers who keep the ball in play, fair well at HTGL.

Start with approach, next the par 4s and course history. Follow with a great short game and an aggressive game plan. Those traits outline the best players for a run at the RBC Heritage title. Hilton Head is one of my favorite venues to visit annually. The crowds are great, and the tournament team takes great care of us. The Masters Press Building is another planet. Following up with Sea Pines makes re-entering normal life a little easier. This is the best two-week stretch on TOUR when it comes to venues.

Outright Winners - RBC Heritage

LPGA

Major move

Four players finished under par at the Aramco Championship. Four. We are seven days away from the first LPGA major championship of the season. The Chevron Championship is next week and will be contested at a new venue. The LPGA is moving its first major from Carlton Woods to Memorial Park. The same Memorial Park that hosted the PGA TOUR three weeks ago. What concerns me is the lead-in. Shadow Creek played difficult for the women. Now we head to El Caballero Country Club for the JM Eagle LA Championship presented by Plastpro. Ingrid Lindblad is the defending champion. All RTL readers remember this event, as we had Akie Iwai (+4000) who finished one stroke behind Lindblad by bogeying the 72nd hole. Sigh. Nevertheless, the winning score was 21 under par, and you needed a score of 16 under par just to crack the top 10!

Gary Woodland won the Houston Open at 21 under par. Nicolai Højgaard came in second (another sigh) at 16 under par. The average winning score over the last three years at Memorial Park is 17 under par. I will dive more into Houston next week, but my point in bringing all of this up is to keep Shadow Creek in mind while you watch the LA Championship. El Caballero will be a shoot-out again. Depending on the weather, I believe Memorial Park will play somewhere in between these last two venues. Keep an eye on the competition with MPGC in mind. Compare those results to the Aramco, and I think we will be in a very good place to win next week.

It's major season, and over the next 15 weeks, the men and women of professional golf will compete in eight majors. It's a glorious time of year for all golf bettors, but before we tee it up again in one of golf's great events, let's improve on our 2025 second-place finish at the LA Championship.

"El Cab"

The JM moved venues in 2025. Wilshire Country Club was going through a massive renovation to the golf course, and the LPGA headed to another valley, north of the city, to host their LA Championship. El Caballero Country Club is no stranger to elite women's golf. The LPGA competed here in 2002, 03, and 04. The 75th USGA Girls' Junior also took place at ECCC in 2024. The runner-up that year was Asterisk Talley. El Caballero or El Cab's design is an accumulation of efforts by William Johnson, Robert Trent Jones Sr., and his son Rees. Known for muting courses, Rees did leave much of the green complex character. These medium-sized surfaces (6,300 sq/ft) are surrounded by severe bunkering and run-offs. Nine holes head north and are mainly downhill. Turn around for eight holes, and you climb in elevation when you go south on this layout.

The biggest challenge El Caballero presents to these women are numerous uneven lies. The terrain changes on this course are terrific. Say what you want about the Jones' work, the ground effects here are great. The field of 144 players will be tested by a par 72 layout covering 6,679 yards. The top 65 and ties will play the weekend for $3.75 million in the purse and a winner's check of $562, 500. Six of the top 10 and 30 of the top 50 in the Rolex Rankings are here to win and prepare for next week.

The wind will be coming from the south. As previously mentioned, when the holes head south, they play uphill. Uphill and into the wind for all four rounds will present a challenge. Eighty-six bunkers and four holes with water are also in play. Although with the top 46 players in the field last year finishing at 10 under par or better, I'm not sure the exam is enough to truly test the best players in the field. If you are familiar with El Caballero, the LPGA changes the routing. The holes are played 1 through 7, then 18, followed by 10 through 16, and closing with 8 and 9. The finish is exciting with a scoreable par 5, a unique par 3, and a difficult par 4. It had our attention last year as Akie Iwai needed a birdie on 18 to win and par to tie. Similar to handicapping Sharon Heights a month ago, we are using every possible Los Angeles region event from the past few years. In doing so, I believe that gives us a great starting point for picking a player to finish one place better than last year.

How to win?

There are no flat lies at El Caballero CC. That was the number one theme from my 2025 research, and it proved to be the difference maker on Sunday last year. I mentioned this 12 months ago. I spoke to several Los Angeles architectural sources about the layout at ECCC. I studied the results from previous LPGA events and the USGA Girls' Junior. Who played well, and how did they do it? Many will say, "Keith, it's a regular-season LPGA event, what are you doing?" I'm trying to win. With one year under our belt, we at least have some RTL proprietary LPGA data we can use for finding a winner in year two. Reviewing those observations and comparing them to the limited LPGA analytics, the two skills that stood out the most in 2025 were approach play and putting.

The approach examination favors the long iron game. Nine of the approaches are over 150 yards. Against the men's numbers I normally list, it doesn't sound like much, but for many of these players, anything that carries over 165 yards requires a hybrid or longer iron. Couple that with a bunch of uphill approach shots into the wind, and your success is critically dependent on deciding how to carefully gauge the approach distances. This is eerily similar to Sharon Heights for the Founders Cup last month. Most eastern American residents never consider the topography of the Los Angeles region. There are sharp hills all over the landscape. Everyone whom I spoke with mentioned the same theme: there are no flat lies. Compound that with wind and little to no course experience and practice rounds become a huge opportunity to gain familiarity with the types of shots that are required.

Last year, I predicted a winning score in the high teens. Little did I know just how many putts were going to be made on these greens! Seven of the top 10 on the final leaderboard gained significant strokes with their flatstick. The greens are much more muted than the originals; the women will have an opportunity to make plenty of sub-par scores (again). As such, I'm going to use the RTL-LPGA scoring combo of BoB%, strokes gained scoring, putting, and birdie-to-bogey ratio. Our outrights need an average score of 4.5 under par per round. Scoring is definitely a skill, and when we have events where you need to go pretty deep, selecting those who can separate and convert birdie chances is a huge key. Those who can generate rounds in the 60s with little effort can also putt. I'm combining the scoring element with great putters.

I always lean on above-average putters at new venues for two reasons. First, they are good green readers, and second, they make more putts because they can adapt their speed better than the competition. That premise definitely held last year. We will stick with putting skill and approach putting for determining who can keep their putting average the lowest and contend. One place to use that putter acumen is the par 4s. Forty par 4s over four days will definitely determine our winner again. The terrain of El Caballero has created a varied set of 4s. Possessing the skill set needed to score across five par 4s under 400 yards, and five that stretch over 400, is a differentiating talent. Toss in all of the slope and speed of El Cab, and our winner will be the one who dominates the 4s.

ECCC has some pretty narrow hallways off the tee. Like many populated neighborhood designs, architects must make great use of space. Twelve of the 14 fairways bend, and they are framed by well-placed trees. Keeping the ball in a position off the tee where your approach can go directly at your target is key at El Caballero. Even with so many uphill holes, accuracy proved more important than length when it came to contending in 2025. Being long AND straight is always an edge, but those players have short odds, and there aren't many of them. To find some value, we need to go lower, and in that category, I'm going with the most accurate drivers.

The bunkering on El Caballero CC is severe. Forty-six bunkers surround these green complexes. Each is quite deep, and they protect the edges. Many of the greens have little outcroppings or areas where hole locations are guarded by sand. Rees softened some of them, but for the most part, they are still very difficult hazards. Around the green acumen is being weighted with a focus on sand play. My focus on short game aficionados serves two purposes. One, the contenders at El Cab will need above-average scoring ability around the green. The second goes back to the opening. Short game is a key player characteristic for Memorial Park. By keeping an eye on the best short game players this week, we will be better prepared for figuring out the Chevron field.

We were on track to win last year for 71-holes. It's not the time to change our LA Championship focus. The above breakdown will give us a couple of contenders. Let's build a great card of players who fit and then go for our third LPGA win of the season!

Outright Winners - JM Eagle LA Championship

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