Doral dud

CHARLOTTE, NC

Our boys did not show up last week. Very rarely does an on-site visit result in an awful card, but it happens. "Not proud of it, man enough to say it." The call on the conditions was correct. We knew Saturday would be the windy day. The rough height, Jake Knapp, short game, etc., were all on point, and the names were wrong. Looking back, something was definitely off. It is almost as if half the field was not interested in playing two Signature Events leading into our second major championship of the season. We can sit and think about it or just move on. I chose the latter. Congratulations to all of the Cameron Young backers. He is a legitimate top-three player in the world, and that's really cool when you start thinking about young American stars needed in the game. How much fun would it be to see Young and Gotterup together in Chicago this September? Or better yet, next September in Ireland!

One glance at the odds board on Monday, and you can see why these events are starting to come under real scrutiny. Back-to-back limited fields, no cut, same players (essentially), playing similar golf courses. The fact that players are starting to skip these events is a telltale sign that we have definitely lost the plot. Do you remember why the WGC events ended? This is why what was once unique became super mundane. Alas, golf has the creative acumen of a McDonald's menu and the memory of a fly on cocaine.

Welcome to the Truist Championship, a field of 72 players competing for 72-holes at the Quail Hollow Club for $20 million. The Banker's Open features eight of the top 10 players in the official OWGR. Our next H2H matchup between Scottie and Rory will have to wait until Aronimink. Although one matchup that catches my attention is Cam Young's run versus that of Matt Fitzpatrick. These two have won five of the last eight PGA TOUR tournaments!

Truist Championship starts in...

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Déjà vu?

The final three holes are called the Green Mile. The Quail Hollow Club has been a popular venue over the past 10 years. Two PGA Championships (2017, 2025) and the Presidents Cup (2022) have been played at Charlotte's version of Augusta National. It's not hyperbole to say they come close in many ways. This is one special golf facility and is worthy of an elite field TOUR event. Pay attention to your historical analytics for this week; Truist, Wells Fargo, Wachovia, etc., were not contested at Quail Hollow in 2017, 2022, and 2025. Was the PGA Championship course dramatically different than what we will see this week? No. The Quail Hollow Club we have come to know is a par 71 layout covering an immense property measuring 7,583 yards. Another 25 yards longer, the par 4 ninth now stretches 530 yards! Did I mention that it was uphill? Four par 3s, 11 par 4s, and three par 5s make up the 18-hole routing. The average winning score over the past five years (played at QHC) is 15 under par. The past two years have seen a couple of runaway winners. Vegas set the final score over/under at 16.5 under par.

We all remember hitting Wyndham Clark (+7500) here in 2023. Over the years, there have been more long shots/first-time winners at Quail Hollow. Anthony Kim, Rickie Fowler, Rory McIlroy, and Max Homa all won for the first time on the PGA TOUR by closing out the Green Mile. Can a non-winner continue that tradition against a Signature field full of Rory, Xander, Cam, Fitz, and others? That's a really tall task. The odds board reflects a top-heavy field. It starts with your favorite and four-time QHC winner, Rory McIlroy, at +600. Cameron Young has crossed the +1000 threshold and sits second on the board for the second week in a row, but this time at +950. Seven players in total are +2500 or shorter. Here's why this system really isn't working for our golf betting world. If you take the same 70 players, remove a 36-hole cut, and have them play four of the last five events together, the lines will get sharper and sharper. Golf used to be this forgotten odds boards at the books. Now you have taken something that once possessed incredible variance and pretty much removed it.

In the comp category, you can start with Augusta National Golf Club. Memorial Park makes sense, and Muirfield Village. Bay Hill and Torrey Pines from a length perspective as well. Quail is a big ballpark that favors longer hitters. If you remember, last week I was against the full distance narrative. I thought accurate players would have a chance, and they did. Half of the final top 10 on the leaderboard were not bombers. QHC, on the other hand, bring extra ball speed in your carry-on luggage. The average par 4 is 458 yards. The closing three holes (Green Mile) stretch 1,213 yards! If you are trying to grab the first-place check for $3.6 million, don't hold back. If Rory's sentiment in the interview room following his second Green Jacket is truly transparent, he'll be here to win his fifth Truist title. That would fit as 16 (primary) PGA TOUR events have been won by 12 players in 2026. We have three multiple winners, and I wouldn't be surprised if we add another from this field. It certainly feels like another Signature name is coming as I walk the grounds. Speaking of on-site observations, let's jump into the “what it takes to win” breakdown.

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How to win?

Quail Hollow Club winners can putt. Eight of the last 10 winners of the Truist have gained four strokes (or more) on the field with their flatstick. Based upon the reactions from players in the press room, that trend will continue. I know we received some rain, but QHC does have a SubAir system in place. The course conditions are perfect (FIRM), and these greens are rolling great. Last week, the guys were talking about grain and wind factoring into their putting approach. The conversation in Charlotte is all about the greens themselves. With so many approaches coming in from long range and an average green size of 6,600 sq/ft, the field will face some long approach putts. The ability to control speed is key. Especially when you consider the undulations these surfaces have. The biggest difference in the skill set needed to win between ANGC and Quail Hollow is putting. Average putters win the Masters. Good putters win the Truist. My first clicks this week are all guys who have proven they can putt this place.

There's no rough again. There was at the PGA last year, and it is gone. Players hit their driver an average of 86% of the time. The PGA TOUR average is 69%. There's definitely an edge for distance around this routing. I like to use Total Driving along with SG: OTT to determine my off-the-tee leans. Quail Hollow is a well-rounded test from the tee box. History tells us the design favors a right-to-left ball flight. A draw for righties, a lefty with a nice power fade has also caught my attention. If you remember, I thought there was an opportunity for positional players to contend at Doral. That lean came true as half of the final top 10 on the leaderboard were not bombers. At Quail Hollow, the leaderboard will lean toward ball speed. If you are looking at a Si Woo Kim or JJ Spaun style player, make sure they can gain OTT. Any player who drives it less than 300 yards (on average) and still gains on the field will be able to separate.

There are 11 par 4s at QHC. The last 10 Truist winners on this property have gained an average of 10 strokes on the field in the year they won. With an average par 4 length of nearly 460 yards, you can see why this is a differentiating skill. The ability to handle the two reachable 4s and six more that stretch over 460 yards requires a complete skill set. One that covers great putting, 200-yard approaches, and elite driving. All of those long approaches (and firm greens) will cause guys to miss the green. The field hits the green 10% below the TOUR average of 66% of the time. With that many opportunities to chip and pitch the ball, you’d better be ready to scramble. I told you this was a well-rounded test.

Thinking back to Trump National Doral, the players look much more engaged this week. It is the week before a major championship. The rough is perfect, in fact, a little too perfect. Last week, the Bermudagrass around the fairways and greens was splotchy. This week, it is uniform like a military-style haircut. That's not to say it is short; it is 2" long to start the tournament, but the uniformity takes a little of the guesswork out. Much will be made about the rain tonight into tomorrow. The Charlotte region has severe drought conditions. I spoke to the Director of Agronomy, and he said it will be a firm test. It would take a significant amount of water to change the course’s texture. There you have it from the man who doesn't sleep during a drought. What does all of this add up to? The favorite is going to be hard to beat. Not because he won here four times, but due to the fact that he is completely engaged. Rory is playing the events he wants to compete in. This is his first PGA TOUR event since the PLAYERS! I grabbed a couple of long shots the card would allow, but overall, this is McIlroy's to win.

Looking ahead to Aronimink GC, keep an eye on the approach play at Quail Hollow, especially the mid-irons. The green complexes in Philadelphia will test the flatstick and short game. I'm looking for a little wedge savvy and putting prowess around the Green Mile as well. Are these two courses good comps? Not really. Some specific skills carry over, and those I just pointed out will have my full attention in Charlotte.

Outright Winners - Truist Championship

LPGA

King Queen of the mountain

Not many surprises down in Mexico. Nelly Korda takes home the title, and we were fortunate to hit a couple of nice prop bets. Minami Katsu finished thirteenth and gave us a little action to watch for three rounds, but in the end, the inevitable for 2026 happened. Korda picked up her third win of the season, and she even bogeyed the last hole! In six starts this year, Nelly has three wins and three runner-up finishes. Lol. Hey Scottie, you let us down on the double winner parlay! When Korda captured the Rolex World number one ranking after the Chevron win, there was no looking back. She attacked this field (and course) with so much confidence. Nelly's just doing everything better than the competition. Thankfully, she has decided to take a week off to prepare for the US Women's Open in a month. Another player will have a chance to win the Mizuho Americas Open.

The national championship is in Los Angeles (Riviera), but the tour is heading east to New Jersey for two of the next three events on the schedule. The first of those events is returning to a host venue from the fall of 2021. Mountain Ridge Country Club in West Caldwell, New Jersey, hosted the Founders Cup in October that year. A renovated schedule due to COVID placed the LPGA in New Jersey for a couple of events that fall. Jin Young Ko was on a tremendous heater at that time, and she dusted the field on this awesome Donald Ross design. Seven of the top 10 players in the world are playing for $3.25 million. 120 players total in the field; the top 50(!) and ties make the weekend.

Do your homework

If you ever receive an invite to play Mountain Ridge, run, don't walk, to the first tee. The world-class clubhouse sits high on a bluff overlooking the course. Holes 1 and 10 take you down the hillside on a cross-country walk through one of the finest routings in the NYC area. Donald's design is one part of the experience; presentation is another. Always in impeccable shape, MRCC is a fantastic test of golf. I have been fortunate to play this venue a dozen times in tournaments, getting the full agronomic examination. The terrain creates a well-rounded test as Ross uses gravity in so many ways to test your game. The average green size is 7,900 sq/ft, which is huge for the level of accuracy these women possess. Those greens are really not that big. King of the false front, Ross reduces the green size in every way. I was on-site in 2021 watching the practice rounds, and what stood out were the green complexes. Covered in Poa Annua, the spring weather in NJ has been good enough to get these surfaces slick.

The men and the women are both playing a par 71 scorecard this week. That doesn't happen often. Mountain Ridge CC measures 6,612 yards. With damp weather in the forecast, it's going to give an edge to the longer players. We'll get into this more in the outright section, but the topography is terrific. If you don't remember this venue from a couple of years ago, the green complexes are... well, complex. Six holes feature water to contend with, and there are 87 bunkers. Ross did an amazing job laying out the sand hazards here. There are so many cross bunkers that chop the fairways up into little landing zones. A 4.8-mile walk, players climb 350' in elevation during their round. If you remember the Founders Cup, the LPGA flipped the nines. For this edition, the women will start on Hole 1 and finish on Hole 18. Honestly, this is such a good warm-up venue for the US Open in a month. Mountain Ridge really requires a game plan. You MUST keep the ball beneath the hole. Finding fairways is essential, or you will never hold these push-up Poa greens. Growing conditions have been great around here; I expect the women to get a really well-groomed test.

How to win?

Jin Young Ko won by four shots in 2021. Four rounds in the 60s, Ko hit 41 of 56 fairways (73%) and 60 of 72 GIRs (83%). That's a formula for winning any tournament. Jin Young did have 23 birdies that week, and her final score was 18 under par. All four of her rounds had at least one bogey. As we prepare to pick the winner of the Mizuho, that's where I believe the biggest key to success lies at Mountain Ridge: bogey avoidance. There's so much nuance to these green complexes. I've played here numerous times and still find so many subtleties. That's what happens when you take an incredible piece of land, a brilliant golf course architect, and add 100 years. Contenders are going to have a great week with their short game. Since around the green acumen is one of the least likely skills to just pop, similar to approach play, we have to stick with players we know can pitch and chip. Don't forget those 40 greenside bunker graves. Sand play will have a role in determining our winner this week.

I remember the fall of 2021. Jin Young Ko went on an epic heater. Unmatched until the spring of 2024, when Nelly won five events in a row. Starting in July, Ko played nine events to close her season. Jin Young won five of them and finished T6 or better in three more! Iron play was the engine behind her success. She carried an enormous edge on the field, knowing she was able to hit 80% + of her GIRs on any given week. It did not matter what the golf course was. As you watch the women at MRCC, securing GIRs is at such a premium. As we build the outright card, approach play becomes option 1B to short game as 1A. Seven of the 11 par 4s are over 400 yards. Dialing in the ladies who can hit greens from over 175 yards is essential. As I mentioned earlier, this is a great preview for the US Open at Riviera. George Thomas, who designed Riv, would have been influenced in some way by Donald Ross. Who wasn't in the Golden Age of architects? Ross designed over 300 courses in his career.

Ko's average drive that week was 251 yards. We don't have any strokes gained data from back then. Lol, 2021 is back then for the LPGA! Having competed at MRCC, accuracy is favored over length. If you have both, that's great, but finding the fairway will be more important than gaining 15 extra yards and ending up in the rough. Or one of 47 fairway bunkers that has a severe lip. Four of the six holes with water in play feature the penalty area off the tee. You get the idea. Mountain Ridge features several blind, severely downhill, and severely uphill tee shots. Confidence with the driver goes a long way on this Donald design. The wet weather will help the ladies land more fairways, and they all should be grateful for a little softening of these fairway and green surfaces.

The cut was one under par in the Founders Cup. Ko was 11 under par after 36-holes. We are going to see some serious scoring variance. With that in mind, maintaining a strong birdie-to-bogey ratio is very important. It goes back to my initial outright point of bogey avoidance, but don't forget scoring. And specifically scoring on difficult golf courses. Who was able to score at Shadow Creek, Sentosa Golf Club, Memorial Park, and Sharon Heights? The terrain alone at Sharon Heights makes it a great recent comp. The rain will help scoring, and I expect the contenders to be in the mid-teens under par. They will have to take advantage of the three par 5s and play those 12 holes at least six or seven under par. A par 71 scorecard brings in four extra par 4s over 72 holes. Featuring those who can score across long (and short) 4s is essential.

Mountain Ridge is going to reward creative scoring. The ability to play multiple styles of approach shots from the fairway and around the green will determine our winner. The good news is that very few elite LPGA ball strikers also have a hyper-consistent short game. That and Nelly is NOT in the field. Local knowledge goes a long way as the LPGA plays two of its next three events in New Jersey. Let's grab a couple of wins and see if we can transfer some of our LPGA momentum over to the PGA TOUR.

Outright Winners - Mizuho Americas Open

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