A super season

Davis Riley beat Scottie Scheffler by five strokes last year to win the Charles Schwab Challenge. To compound the improbable, our venue, Colonial Country Club, is in Fort Worth, Texas, near Scottie's hometown of Dallas. Riley opened the week at +35000 to win. I distinctly remember that line because I thought he would play well. The minute I read 350-1, I questioned my sanity. We took Riley for a top 40 placement at +300! I mention this story as a quick reminder that crazy things can happen, and this course called Colonial is one where the rank and file just might have a Jim Carey chance against the far and above best player in the world.

With the Wannamaker trophy in tow, Scheffler entered the week at +250 when the odds dropped on Sunday night. Scottie's son will still crawling around the eighteenth green and the oddsmakers did not give this field much of a chance. It's reminiscent of three weeks ago, starting CJ CUP week (in Dallas), where Scheffler was +275 and the next closest on the board was Jordan Spieth at +2000. Do these guys have a chance? Davis Riley did pull off a miracle last year, but the simplest answer is usually the correct one. We must get creative to build a winning portfolio at the Charles Schwab.

Year two

Seven of the top 25 players in the OWGR will attempt to take down the number one player in the world. There are 135 players in the field, and the top 65 and ties will have a chance to take home a piece of a $9.5 million purse. Colonial Country Club has been a host venue on the PGA TOUR for just short of 80 years. Knowing that, one would think we have a ton of historical information to assist in breaking down the betting board. Turns out, this fantastic Perry Maxwell design was restored, renovated, and reinvigorated by the team of Gil Hanse and Jim Wagner before the 2024 edition. Riley won by five strokes over the field at 14 under par.

The average winning score over the last decade is 13 under par, so how much did they change? The project was run on a very tight timeline. Hanse and Wagner tore apart every hole and rebuilt them. When the TOUR returned 365 days later, the paint was still drying. The greens made us all wonder if the course's name was "Concrete" Country Club. New surfaces can play very firm. They will have somewhat softened with an extra year of maintenance, play, and weather, but I don't expect their overall firmness to go away. Colonial plays as one of the top 10 most difficult courses on the PGA TOUR when it comes to scoring. Last year, following the renovation, it was ranked the seventh most difficult on the PGA TOUR, which was the hardest it had played since 2019.

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Keith's Keys 🗞️ A couple of key skills you can claim as your own at the water cooler and cocktail party conversations. You can find complete explanations for each in the betting breakdown. Similar styles: Comp courses can be a handy key this week. Short, challenging, and positional courses can point out key contenders at Colonial. Compare leaderboards from Valspar, Sanderson, Wyndham, and Waialae. Middle of the road: Nearly 50% of approach shots will come from 125-175 yards this week. Oooo I wanna take ya: To Bermuda... Wall to wall Bermudagrass off the greens this week. Keep it out of the rough off the tee and save some shots around the green out of this mangled mess of a turfgrass.

We know some of that can be subjective based upon course conditions, weather, and strength of field, but overall, Colonial is always an entertaining test. Our forecast looks great compared to the deluge(s) the PGA of America had to deal with in Charlotte. Temperatures are predicted in the high 80s, so the ball will be flying. That could present a series of issues, as late spring in Texas can be windy, and the Bermudagrass rough has not been overseeded. Gone are the green landscapes of Quail Hollow; Colonial is going to show us a little more of its dry side. We will see wind values up in the high teens and mainly come out of the south, especially over the weekend. Colonial's routing is a good one. That south wind direction will give us a bunch of crosswind holes.

Charles Schwab Challenge starts in...

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Perry Maxwell designed the routing around the Trinity River. His initial vision had been muted in many ways. Some of that was due to Colonial CC's location in a floodplain. Many of the modifications over the years were not necessarily improvements as much as they were done to protect the course. Cement walls blocking erosion, earth moved to preserve Perry's putting surfaces, etc. The original design had been seriously lost until Hanse/Wagner came in. To their credit, both created a wonderful new par (70) examination. Believe it or not, they didn't add any length in this process! A true restorative piece of work, they simply gave us a winning score equal to what it always has been. I mention this because golf course architects can do amazing work without adding 500 yards.

If you like trends, then this information is for you. The field hits less than 60% of their fairways at Colonial. Twenty-eight acres of landing area surrounded by Bermudagrass will test the best. CCC is ranked in the top 10 on TOUR for an increased penalty if you miss the fairway. Targets are small at Colonial as the average green size is 5,000 sq/ft. You won't see tons of long approaches like you did at the PGA, but the field will hit fewer GIRs than the PGA TOUR average this week. That is interesting because the average approach length is around 150 yards. Forty-five percent of all approaches are launched between 125-175 yards. Tributaries of the Trinity River run through the course and give us six holes with water in play. Toss in 64 bunkers and just one year's worth of green experience, and I expect the winning score to be around the 10 under par. Maybe even a little less if that wind blows over the weekend.

All of this (again) points us in one direction. If you run a predictive model and Scheffler is not the top-ranked player, your computer is broken. Scottie's super power(s) are accuracy off the tee, and especially on approach. When I walk with Scottie's group on-site or see him on the practice tee with Randy Smith, he hits every shot pin high. A great lesson for amateur players, the quickest way to lower your score is to take enough club. Pride is one of the seven deadly sins, and when I watch Scottie, he's always landing the ball at the proper depth. In my mind, that's the most comparable characteristic between him and Tiger Woods. Tiger always hit it pin high. Go back and watch the tournaments on YouTube. It's uncanny how often these two do it. What's not uncanny are their odds. Scheffler's now consistently in Woods' world when it comes to outright value. Based upon the display we just saw in Charlotte and knowing the last time he played against a similar field in Texas (won by eight), it should be lower.

Target practice

Our par 70 layout this week covers 7,289 yards of Texas terrain. The stage is set for Scottie Scheffler versus the field. As if Scheffler didn't need any motivation, in his last three starts at Colonial, the results are: lost in a playoff, third, and runner-up one year ago. If there was any chance Scottie might come in without his usual edge, forget it. Much like Tiger, if he's coming, then he's there to destroy any hope you may have of winning. Truth be told, when Scottie won at TPC Craig Ranch (CJ CUP Byron Nelson), we all thought that course was an average fit for his game. Then he went and won by eight strokes. Looking ahead, Colonial is by far a better fit for his game. CCC is a ball striker's paradise. This was Ben Hogan's place. Forever beloved by golf fans for his ability to hit a golf ball, Scheffler is on a path to receive the same reverence.

To win, you are going to have to go through him. Scheffler's game is a perfect fit for this course because it places a heavy emphasis on accurate approach play. Over 45% of the approaches are fired at the hole from between 125-175 yards. To take it a step further, and due to the recent renovation, the landing zones players have to hit require amazing precision as well. Missing those small targets implies a reliance on around the green acumen, but we'll get to that in a minute. Proximity to the hole in that eight iron, nine iron, and pitching wedge range is a difficult area to differentiate yourself. These guys are on the PGA TOUR and although not all of them will be great this week, a vast majority are very good at these approaches. After a combined 13-stroke separation in his last two wins, we know without a shadow of doubt that Scheffler is.

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If you are looking to separate with your irons, there are two ways you can do it. We have seven opportunities where a long iron comes into play. Two of those happen on the par 5s, and the rest on the 3s and 4s. Hit those shots close, make a birdie, and you will pick up shots. The second area you can contend with your irons requires the shortest clubs in your bag. Four of the last six winners have lost strokes to the field with their wedges. The negative numbers imply short game is the least influential of the four major strokes gained categories. I would argue it is more important than it appears. These are short holes. Just compare the course to last week. Players were hitting approaches on the Green Mile from 220! They will be 100 yards closer at Colonial.

Contenders may not miss many GIRs this week. As such, they have fewer short-game opportunities to shine. A timely par save on this venue will be the difference between winning and losing. No kidding, Keith, and here's the point. I believe these green complexes are difficult to get up and down, and if you can gain any strokes on the field from close range, you will have an advantage. The average winning score is 13 under par. Bogey avoidance is a huge consideration this week. In my mind, more so than strokes gained off the tee. The fairways are difficult to hit, and guys will lay back where they need to. The advancement of these surrounds and the firm Bermudagrass grain make it very hard. I'm evenly weighting BoB% and bogey avoidance.

Par 70 scoring favors players who can tear apart par 4s. There are 12 of them this week. That's one more than last week, and two more than the standard "TPC" scorecard. On weeks like the Schwab, I'm weighing that cumulative category. I also believe this is a huge comp week complemented by Colonial's course history. Harbour Town, Innisbrook Copperhead, Sedgefield Country Club, Sander Farms, and Wailai are all on my list. You can try Southern Hills for the 2022 PGA, but most guys won't be in that field and it was in major championship form; far different from a regular TOUR event.

Davis Riley continued the trend of earning strokes against the field on the greens. The last 10 winners have gained an average of six strokes against their competitors in the week they won. The new green complexes following the renovation continued that pattern last year, and I expect, just like Quail Hollow, the best putters will be featured over the weekend. Due to the dry conditions, I'm also weighing putts inside 10 feet. Similar to Quail Hollow, there will be some rollout. Give it a little extra tap, and you're going to face four-footers on these beautiful Bentgrass surfaces. Great putters can place the ball close to the hole from any length. Speed control and short ones are what I want to see out of our contenders to try and stop Scottie's bid for three in a row.

Colonial Country Club is very straightforward, and these guys are still trying to learn all the renovation nuances. Scheffler's game applies anywhere. He just won on two completely different courses by an average of 6.5 strokes! Check the card carefully this week. We will have some unique betting opportunities listed. We won the w/o Scottie market bet with Bryson last week, and it can be done again. We have to get crafty to cash a couple of winning tickets.

Outright Winners - Charles Schwab Challenge

I’m not betting on Scottie Scheffler at +250, or whatever the closing number is. He's going to win and become an even bigger favorite at Muirfield Village next week (sigh). Instead, let’s go with Daniel Berger. Berger was once ranked twelfth in the OWGR. He beat a world-class field at Colonial in 2020 after the COVID restart. Daniel will need all that momentum and more to get past Scheffler in his current form. The ball striking is there, and the putter is on fire about half the time. A quick return to a comfortable place will make Berger’s comeback complete at Colonial. Daniel Berger +1800 (w/o Scheffler)

JT Poston tends to play well in streaks. When he won the 2022 John Deere Classic, he was the runner-up the week before at the Travelers. With three wins on his resume, we know he can finish strong on Sunday afternoons. Currently gaining an average of +4.5 strokes with the flatstick over his last three starts, Poston can deliver us a win even with Scottie in the field. JT finished twelfth last year after the renovation, and following a fifth at the PGA, he is poised to maintain his strong performance at another familiar venue like Colonial. JT Poston +3300 (w/o Scheffler)

Welcome back

The LPGA is back, and heading south of the border for the first time in eight years. The MEXICO Riviera Maya Open at Mayakoba takes us back to a familiar place, the El Camaleon Golf Course at Mayakoba. Host to LIV Golf for the past two years, the PGA TOUR played the World Wide Technologies Championship here from 2007-2022. Even though many of the LPGA stars took the week off before the US Open, we know this golf course well and what it takes to win here. Take a quick look at some of the past champions.

• LIV Golf: Joaquin Niemann, Charles Howell III
• PGA TOUR: Russell Henley, Viktor Hovland (2), Matt Kuchar, Harris English, Johnson Wagner

Just six of the top 40 in the Rolex World Rankings are competing. The LPGA did not play last week so as not to compete against the PGA Championship. This is only their twelfth event of the year, and not one of the top 14 players in the world is teeing it up ahead of the national championship. Twelve events! We are 20 weeks into the year. Now, we are heading to Mexico for a brand-new event, venue, and sponsor. The last time the LPGA found itself crossing the border was in 2017 for the Lorena Ochoa Match Play. Sixty-four ladies played for $1.2 million that week. A field of 144 women are competing for $2.5 million this week, and $375,000 for first.

MEXICO Riviera Maya Open starts in...

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We are heading to paradise in mid-May. The forecast is like the movie Groundhog Day. Temperatures will rise into the low 90s each afternoon. We have no rain on the radar, and the wind blows about 10-12 mph out of the southeast from 10:00 am to 4:00 pm. It is the same weather pattern every day. El Camaleon at Mayakoba is a par 72 layout covering 6,583 yards. The guys play the closing hole as a brutal par 4, the LPGA is making it a par 5. Designed by Greg Norman in 2006, the Shark must have been in a bad mood when he threw this track together. El Camaleon is tight off the tee. Forget tree-lined fairways, these are mangrove forests. Once the ball goes in there, it's time to reload. And that's why when you look at the men's past champions, you see a lot of accuracy specialists. Heck, Fred Funk won here!

One of the 11 winners on tour in 2025 is here: Rio Takeda. The field is almost as top-heavy as the Charles Schwab Challenge, yet the betting favorite Takeda is NOT the undisputed champion of the world like Scheffler. Rio's a talented player from the JLPGA, but her weakest ball-striking skill is hitting fairways. She ranks fifty-seventh on the LPGA this season. Does that leave the door open for another possible winner? We have plenty of options. With very few stars and 144 rookies on this course, I'm going to be conservative with our card.

When it comes to the LPGA, I have heard some positive news. They have made an offer to their next Commissioner candidate. Let's hope he is ready to hit the ground running. The biggest event of their season is next week in Wisconsin at Erin Hills. Then the tour is back again in Atlantic City, NJ for the ShopRite. This week starts a consecutive six-week run for the ladies, the longest this year. Let's enjoy the action and the US Open. It's time for the LPGA to make some birdies on and off the course!

Straight and narrow

Sometimes the phrase "resort course" can be an oxymoron. I'm no architect, but if I were commissioned to design a course adjacent to an all-inclusive resort El Camaleon is the exact opposite of what I would produce. Each hole sits alone on the property. They are all fabulously framed by mangroves and the beach. The problem is, you cannot play from either. One hole even has a cave you must hit over. Believe me, not a problem for a large majority of professionals, but this course is exacting. Let's start off the tee. Only two of the top 20 betting favorites on the board are inside the top 25 for driving accuracy. That's a huge problem here. Only one player in the top 10 of the odds board is inside the top 10 for strokes gained off the tee.

Because the strength of field is less than an average LPGA event, and we have a new venue, I'm backing my way into our outright card. This Mayakoba maze amongst the mangrove trees has some average-sized green complexes. Accumulating GIRs is a priority, but I'm combining that trait with proximity to the hole. Only three players in the field are ranked inside top 20 for strokes gained approach and GIRs. That's the combination we are looking for. We are along the Gulf (fill in your own ending). The midday southeast breeze will kick up, and the ability to control trajectory and spin on these landing surfaces is key. Only the best approach players can do that. It also takes ball speed. I want players who can strike the ball hard off turf.

We are on paspalum greens at Mayakoba. We don't see this grass very often on the LPGA, and maybe that's why most of the women skipped this week. Paspalum is a seaside grass that we always play on when the ocean is nearby. It's a resilient turf but can be spongy and putt very slowly. It will be an adjustment this week for the women on the greens. The players who can secure the most GIRs in proximity to the hole will have a huge advantage. Just two women in the top 20 on the betting board are ranked inside the top 15 for rolling the rock. Neither of them is inside the top eight! I'm telling you; this is an interesting collection of competitors.

The average winning score for the WWT was around 20 under par. Based on the scorecard length, I think the women's winner will finish in the high teens. I wouldn't be surprised if one of our outrights distanced herself like Scottie at Quail Hollow and got into the 20s. Strokes gained scoring and BoB% is a factor at Mayakoba. Players can putt and chip very aggressively on Paspalum. Our outrights are in great form and tend to play a little more on the aggressive side. Only five players of the top 20 on the board with the shortest odds are inside the top 15 for birdie to bogey ratio and scoring average.

Looking at a field like this, it becomes clear who can and who cannot contend over 72 holes. The characteristics needed to win at El Camaleon are quite specific. I'm taking those players who have shown the ability to be accurate and score week after week. The LPGA is about to go on a six-week tournament run. Nobody studies them more than us; let's grab a couple of wins and start to build a little outright momentum in 2025.

Outright winners - MEXICO Riviera Maya Open

Carlota Ciganda was the last player to win in Mexico on the LPGA. Ciganda is one of the best ball strikers in this field (and on tour). Her handicap can be putting. She's had great success south of the border because the greens are slower. That pace helps average putters contend and win. Coming in third place at Liberty National and ninth at the Chevron, Carlota can find her way to the winner’s circle. If all else fails, her horrific pace of play might frustrate others and give her an extra edge. Carlota Ciganda +1600

Another player who finished ninth at the Chevron and top 20 at Mizuho, Manon De Roey is one of the few players down the betting board who can hit enough fairways and putt well enough to win. De Roey has won five times in Europe and attended the University of New Mexico. Manon is the seventh (!) player in this field T2G. This is what we are working with, and she makes sense as a strong contender. Manon De Roey +3500

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