Cup runneth over

Scottie Scheffler did not record a score of five (or more) at TPC Craig Ranch until the twelfth hole on Sunday. That was his only five in 72 holes. Wyndham Clark made 275' of putts over the weekend, and that completes our recap of the CJ Cup Byron Nelson. Let's hope for firmer conditions in 2027...

A field of 132 players heads to Fort Worth, Texas, and one of the most historic venues on the PGA TOUR, Colonial Country Club, for the Charles Schwab Challenge. Sixteen of the top 50 players in the OWGR are competing in the second event in this mini-Texas tour leading up to The Memorial. To put that in perspective, four of the top 50 played last week. The total purse is $9.9 million, and the top 65 and ties play the weekend for those precious FedEx Cup points and a first-place check of $1.78 million. A short commute by TOUR standards, these venues are a mere 57 miles apart. A one-hour ride Southwest to Fort Worth from McKinney, even though these two courses are close in proximity, they couldn't be farther apart in DNA.

Charles Schwab Challenge starts in...

​

Proper renovation

Gil Hanse and Jim Wagner performed a renovation of Colonial Country Club between the 2023 and 2024 CSCs. Although many of the analytics we monitor did not significantly change, the Hanse Caveman team updated the layout for the next 25 years. Colonial CC is far better prepared to host the best men in the world and elite amateur events in the coming years(s). The par 70 scorecard stretching 7,289 yards is 96 yards shorter than TPC Craig Ranch. That's where the similarities end. The average winning score at the Schwab Challenge is 13 under par, pre- and post-renovation, over the last 10 years. That's less than half of the average winning score at the Byron Nelson the past two years! What makes Colonial such a unique challenge on the PGA TOUR? Several factors. Starting with the tee box, CCC requires you to hit fairways. With some carefully designed doglegs, players are forced to make strategic choices off the tee. Measuring less than 7,300 yards, the approach buckets are not long. Focus your attention on the 100 to 175 range, and you cover just over 50% of the iron shots needed for 18 holes.

It just rains in Texas at this time of year. The CJ Cup has been plagued by it in May, along with the Charles Schwab. We have seen the redesign play under wet conditions. When you replace green complexes, they return firm. We have witnessed that the last two years watching this event. The big bounce on approach is real and especially from the Bermudagrass rough. Over time, that bounce will naturally soften. I expect to see fewer run-outs on iron shots. As such, proximity reigns in the rain. The average green size is 5,000 sq/ft, so these are small targets to begin with. Twenty-eight acres of fairway to complement the below-average-sized green surfaces, and you can see why Colonial has favored accuracy over length in eight of the last 10 tournaments. TPC Southwind, Innisbrook's Copperhead Course, and Sedgefield CC all instantly come to mind. Venues that place a premium on par 4 play and keeping the ball on the short grass.

Six holes have water in play, and 64 bunkers dot the landscape. Bentgrass surfaces on the greens; this is the third week in a row the guys are putting on the smoothest surface. Since putting is a factor at Colonial, focus your flatstick attention on the most recent results. Inside 10', players tend to make more putts than the PGA TOUR average. That tells us two things: one, the greens are pretty flat once you reach the right plateau, and two, the surfaces roll true. No tricks on these new greens, get the ball rolling online, and you can make a bunch of putts. So why isn't the average winning score lower? Colonial CC has small targets! The last 10 winners have averaged over 20 sub-par scores the week they won, and the average winning score is 13 under par. That's a well-rounded test, and it has only gotten better since the renovation. Vegas has the final score over/under at 266.5 (-13.5). If the forecast holds for more wet weather (with minimal wind) until late this Wednesday afternoon, that under is a good bet.

We return to Fort Worth and Colonial Country Club for the 80th time. Since 1946, the TOUR has been traveling to Texas and Hogan's home. Enjoy the nostalgia and emphasis on being well-rounded. That doesn't always mean the elite win at CCC. The middle tier of the odds board has dominated here over the last 10 years. Seven of the last 10 winners have fallen between +2500 and +7000 on the board. That's where we are attacking this week. Plenty of potential outright winners sit with strong approach and putter numbers. Let's dive deeper and see if we can get one of these middle-class TOUR players across the finish line.

Read The Line media ⤵️

How to win?

The renovation to TPC Craig Ranch did not change the skill set needed to shoot 30 under par, LOL. Colonial CC provides us with a couple of years of data to compare the two versions. To date, we don't see much of a difference above ground. The health and performance of the golf course have improved due to Hanse and Wagner's digging, but the skill set and scores are still the same. When you think about it, that's a good renovation. Most courses are not maintaining their edge on the field. Many classic venues are being overpowered by modern professionals, and CCC is not one of them. A course like Colonial, that protects some version of par, should be rewarded on the new TOUR schedule and given a Tier 1 spot. Instead of a Texas two-fer that includes Craig Ranch, why not honor Nelson and Hogan at Colonial and move on? Those two names were synonymous with each other during their time on the TOUR. Let's keep them together going forward and elevate this venue.

And here's why, you must be an accurate player to contend at Colonial. Much like those other comp courses I listed above, CCC measures accuracy off the tee, approach proximity, around the green ability, and flatstick skill. Since several players are going to pop up under those general areas of acumen, let's dive a little deeper with each one to build the best list of outright bets. Colonial CC is the third straight week of Bentgrass putting. The last 10 winners have gained an average of six strokes on the field with their flatstick. Instead of looking at a wide range of putting analytics, keep the various categories, but limit your research to the past couple of weeks. Bent is the purest surface we see on TOUR, and as we watched Wyndham Clark gain 12+ strokes last week on the greens, keep in mind nine of the last 10 Schwab winners gained five strokes or more with their putter.

Each of the 14 tee shots bends in some fashion. Some are sharper than others, but a truly straight tee shot does not exist at CCC. Picking the correct start line and finding your fairway target matters for two important reasons. The Bermudagrass rough is quite penal at CCC. The guys don't normally get the brillo-rough we see down south without some type of overseed. Colonial gives you a challenge if you miss the fairway. Consistently in the top third on the PGA TOUR for missing the fairway penalty, we're not at Craig Ranch anymore, Toto. The approach test at Colonial can be narrowed. The par 3s and (two) par 5s allow you to separate with a 200+ yard shot. Past those six iron shots, the other 12 fall into the 100 to 175 range. For these players, that's not more than a seven or eight iron. From that distance, a few of these guys are really good and showing stellar form.

With 12 par 4s, don't forget par 4 scoring and I am throwing some emphasis on bogey avoidance. That's one area where the renovation has changed the challenge of this course. Hanse added more closely mown areas around the greens. Chipping and pitching off sticky, humid, wet Bermudagrass is a skill. Gil's creativity around the green complexes presents a new handicapping opportunity. Old Colonial featured a ton of Bermudagrass rough surrounding the putting surfaces. The renovation added a number of new fairway height swales, mounds, hills, and situations. When filtering for short game this week, make sure you take that into account. Each player is going to be presented with a couple of grainy tight Bermudagrass lies during each round. Colonial is consistently inside the top 5 most difficult courses on TOUR for approaches under 150 yards. Guys are going to miss GIRs. When that happens, short grass skill will be paramount.

One last detail I love about Colonial is the difficulty of the par 5s. Historically, in the top 10 for difficulty, the ability to score on Holes 1 and 11 really set you up for success. Why? They each ask you: to hit the fairway, place a long iron shot in play, score with a wedge, and make a putt. Sounds redundant after reading this narrative. Just one more edge we can use to predict this week's winner.

Outright Winners - Charles Schwab Challenge

LPGA

US Open Prep

It has been a weird run-up to the LPGA's second major championship of the season. The world's best women will be in Los Angeles at the famed Riviera Country Club for the United States Women's Open. In preparation for the toughest test of the year, a field of 144 plan to compete in Galloway, New Jersey, in the ShopRite LPGA powered by Wakefern. Hopefully, Wakefern is a code word for private jet, because a Sunday finish and cross-country trip to California will take a toll on the top 65 and ties who play on Sunday. I mention Sunday, because the cut will not happen until Saturday night. The ShopRite is one of two 54-hole events remaining on the schedule. I know grocery prices have gone up, but throwing a three-day event on the shortest course the LPGA plays across the country from the US Open is a tough sell for ShopRite. Heck, they could have played this event last week and given the women more time to prepare for the national championship.

As expected, only five of the top 25 in the Rolex Rankings are competing. The betting favorite is Hye Jin Choi (+750). Please don't take this the wrong way. Read The Line loves the ShopRite. We have picked the winner twice 2022 (Brooke Henderson) and 2023 (Ashleigh Buhai) in the last four years. In order to grab number three, we will continue to use our winning ShopRite strategy. It starts with having played Seaview's Bay Course many times. Analyzing a course you have played and covered on-site is very helpful. We also grabbed those two wins before the LPGA published any strokes gained data. With the upgrade of their analytic offerings and local knowledge, it is time to grab number three at Seaview, and for the year.

Ross three-peat

The Seaview Resort is a historic golf venue. The majestic white hotel sits above 36-holes designed by two of the great architects of the golden age of golf courses. The William Flynn Pines Course heads inland behind the hotel, and Donald Ross’ Bay Course extends from the front porch out toward the sea. The Bay Course stretches to 6,263 yards and plays to a par 71. The shortest test on tour, the women will play eight (of 11) par 4s under 400 yards. Even the average par 5 is only 490 yards. This is one of the most fan-friendly events on any tour. You can see every hole from a couple of vantage points, and many of the fairways run parallel to one another. A couple of tee boxes were added last year to increase the scorecard length. The average winning score over the last decade is 14.4 under par (for three rounds). It's an entertaining course to watch a tournament because the field can birdie or bogey any hole, depending on the conditions. The Bay Course is so exposed, and you can see it during the coverage.

Even with 93 bunkers and 6,000 sq/ft greens (on average), the field will score. That's the DNA of the Bay Course. The ShopRite has seen Hall of Famers and first-timers win because the layout is so short. If you take the top BoB% players on tour and tell them they need to average five birdies a day under normal conditions, 15 ladies (minimum) can do that. I'm praying the forecast holds up. The weather can be a wildcard at the ShopRite. The skill set needed to win is specific for Seaview. If the forecast holds, we will contend and have a great chance to win. Our weekly coverage of the LPGA will be a great asset in assessing this field. With the US Open across the country in eight days, we don't have a deep roster of usual suspects. The field in Mexico was deeper. Hopefully, the LPGA gets a handle on this schedule and starts to figure this out. The Mizuho had a great field, but that was three weeks ago. In the last six weeks, the LPGA has collected two strong events. It's April and May! Fans complain about the two overseas tours to Asia, but we are in peak season, and nobody is playing.

Tight fairways, plenty of bunkers, and hopefully some wind will give these ladies a decent test. It's a shoot-out at the Jersey Shore. Let's find some women who can make 5+ birdies per round for three straight days.

How to win?

Breaking down the ShopRite is all about accuracy. The course is very short for modern LPGA standards. The tour continues to go here because the crowds give the ladies tremendous support, but under normal conditions, it is not a professional test. The lead skill we seek is approach play. Our two RTL winners, Henderson and Buhai, were in the top 5 on tour for iron play when they won. The average approach length is short at Seaview's Bay Course. Five of the 11 par 4s are under 350 yards in length. Add in a very short par 3 on 17, and that's six approaches (33%) where you must create close birdie chances. Remember, the winning score is 14 or 15 under par over three rounds. Our contenders are looking to fire five under par per day to keep pace. Those six short-range approaches are important. Since the LPGA lacks specific proximity data, how can we measure who separates on short par 4s? I like par 5 scoring at the ShopRite for this reason and a couple of others.

Players who can score on the 5s have a unique combination of skills. First, they score from close range. The modern professional golfer pushes the ball down to the green in two on a par 5. That third scoring shot comes from inside 100 yards. The best birdie makers on par 5s excel on this last approach. Six par 4s and all three par 5s will reward this skill set at the ShopRite. That's half the holes these ladies will play each day. If you can birdie four or five of those nine, you are on pace to win. Those sub-par scores are the easiest to make on tour. The second skill on par 5s that applies on the Bay Course is your long iron or fairway wood approach in two. All three par 5s are reachable at Seaview, as the average length is 490 yards for the 5s.

Those three long-iron swings on the 5s also correlate to success on the par 3s. If the Bay Course challenges anything, it is par 3 scoring. Outside of the short seventeenth, the other par 3s are over 180 yards. Each one has a small, undulating green. As we have seen the past three weeks on tour, Ross was notorious for testing players on par 3s. Add up those three tee shots and the three long second swings on the par 5s, and that's six more situations where players can separate. The final key par 5 player trait is making birdie or better. The scoring average of the last three top 10s at the ShopRite after three rounds is 4.5 on the 5s. The leaders are going low on these holes. It doesn't matter what the weather is; this collection of par 5s is very scoreable. You must average two birdies per day on those three holes.

Looking through the recent top 10s from the 2022 to 2025 leaderboards, putting ranks second in strokes gained importance. That makes sense, because this is a three-day shoot-out. Wind-swept courses like this one are required to have relatively benign putting greens because the slopes will not hold balls in the wind. They do have shelves and sections, but when you get on the right plateau, the putting becomes very straightforward. The average green is small, 6,000 sq/ft. Hit the green, and you have a legitimate birdie chance. The defending champion, Jennifer Kupcho, gained nearly three strokes per round last year with her flatstick. Women will make putts, and since scoring is all that counts, you have to pay attention to those who are trending on the greens. Consider this as well, we just left TWO Ross-designed venues. Did Donald create all of those putting surfaces? No. But the Ross DNA is there, and it exists at the Bay Course too.

How much should we pay attention to short game and OTT play? Seaview might be the only course across the LPGA and PGA TOUR where the driver really does not matter. Can it help with the 5s? Yes. There are so many short holes at Seaview, you just need to hit your wedges (very) close. That's the consideration for the short game as well. Sure, the ladies will miss some greens, but these surfaces are really windswept flat. A decent around the green player will do fine here. You don't really need to worry about bunker play, etc., because the field is hitting approach shots from such close range. We're not going to overthink this; we have predicted the winner here twice. Approach, approach, approach, pick the player who will hit 75% of her GIRs, make 18 sub-par scores in three rounds, and that's the winner.

Will any part of this event help us handicap next week? Probably not. The USGA will have Riviera set up 500+ yards longer. The driver will play a huge role in the Pacific Palisades and mid- to long- iron play. Keep an eye on the putter at Seaview. We will want to know who is popping with the flatstick, but overall, this three-round event is as much of a one-off format as is the skill set needed. Enjoy the entertainment and the NJ crowds. Nine of the last 11 ShopRites were won by one stroke or in a playoff. After a miserable Memorial Day weekend, things are about to heat up down at the Jersey Shore.

Outright Winners - ShopRite LPGA

RTL Weekly Editorials 📰

Do you want to be a better bettor?

Become a member of Read The Line today!

​​​​​

Think you have a gambling problem? Reach out for help. Read The line promotes responsible gaming. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit these online resources:

​The National Council on Problem Gambling​

​Council on Compulsive Gaming - New Jersey​