Two week tour

Get those alarm clocks ready, the PGA TOUR is going trans-Atlantic for two weeks starting with the co-sanctioned Genesis Scottish Open. I'm not sure it shouldn't be TRI-sanctioned as we have LIV players in the field as well! For the first time in a few years, some of the biggest names on the LIV Golf tour will be competing against Scottie, Rory, and the rest of the PGA TOUR in a non-major. Seven LIV guys total will go against 65 more DP World Tour card holders and 84 PGA TOUR travelers. I mention the field breakdown for a couple of reasons. First, it is newsworthy that Jon Rahm and Tyrell Hatton are playing against the TOUR. Second, even more important, there will be plenty of players from across the pond who make the cut this week. Take your domestic glasses off for a second. A field of 156 players will be cut to the top 65 and ties after 36 holes. When picking placements and building DFS lineups, we tend to go with guys we know.
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Since this event became co-sanctioned and nearly half the field is filled with Euro tour players, approximately 41% of the players who do make the cut are from the DP World Tour. That's a significant number, and a golden opportunity to take advantage of with our research. Seventy of the top 100 in the OWGR are playing for a purse of $9 million. A smooth $1.62 million for first, more than a few players are primed to go after our tournament favorite Scottie Scheffler. Why do so many DP players get through the cut against the PGA TOUR? Much has to do with familiarity and playing conditions the European players are accustomed to. More on that in a moment, as we need to first cover a major change in the course routing of the Renaissance Club.

The Genesis Scottish Open starts in...

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Did you know?

The Renaissance Club is changing the hole routing for the 2026 Scottish Open. I haven't seen or heard anyone talk about this yet, but it is happening. The scorecard is still a par 70 layout measuring 7,282 yards. We have five par 3s, 10 par 4s, and three par 5s. Holes 1 through 7 will be the actual holes 10 through 16. Holes 8 and 9 will remain in place. The back nine starts with the actual holes 1 through 7. The course then closes with the traditional 17th and 18th hole. Tournament officials wanted to flip the first seven holes on both sides for a couple of reasons. The most important is entertainment. The course will now feature the reachable par 4 fifth hole as the 14th. Next in line is the short (and devious) par 3 sixth hole as the 15th. The DP World Tour plans to build an arena around the 147-yard par 3. This realignment now features an opening par 5 and two par 3s across the final four holes. Scoring volatility leads to more excitement. This realignment is not a new idea. This is the same routing the club used in 2019 for the Scottish Open.

The Renaissance Club has 80 bunkers and an average green size of 7,000 sq/ft. No holes feature water in play, and just a few of them even border the beach. The average winning score under these weather conditions is 16 under par. I'm skipping the weather-affected 2022 first co-sanctioned year when Xander Schauffele won at 7 under par. Vegas has set the final score over/under at 16.5 under par. Go figure! With the course/weather conditions we expect, there will be scoring. The field is really strong, and these courses are built with the wind in mind. If you don't get enough breeze, the guys will go low. Two of the four co-sanctioned winners were middle-tier guys. Chris Gotterup and Bobby Mac were not leading the OWGR when they won. Considering the strength of the field is similar to the last four editions, maybe a little stronger with the seven LIV guys, I expect the middle of the pack to have a legitimate shot again to win.

Just a quick note on links golf for the RTL readers. "Links" does not refer to links on a chain. What most golfers believe is why courses in the British Isles are given that name. It's easy to make that mistake since many of the routings go out and back from the clubhouse along the coastline. Links refers to the land. Along the water you find beach. Further in from the beach there is an area of land which cannot be used for agricultural purposes. That ground links the beach to the farming soil. Since the ground could not be used for crops, early settlers built golf courses there. Links golf refers to courses set on that barren land next to the beach. In the States, we have very few areas with the same style of soil construction, and therefore very few links courses. Just removing the trees and designing around dunes does not count. True links golf is solely defined by the soil composition.
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​Speaking of winning, our very own Joe Idone, co-host of the Preferred Lines show below, has hit back-to-back outrights at the Travelers and the John Deere. If you are not listening to Joe and John Haslbauer, click the link below and listen. Two of the sharpest guys in the betting industry, Preferred Lines doesn't just break down the weekly tournament, but the world of golf as well! Sports Business Journal's Josh Carpenter joins the guys this week to talk about the future of the PGA TOUR. If you love golf and betting, then you will fit in perfectly with these two.

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How to win?

A glance at the recent winners and it doesn't take long to decide what the common characteristic is... the driver. MacIntyre, Schauffele, McIlroy, and Gotterup are all elite OTT players. They can separate with the big stick. We saw Chris do it on Sunday at TPC Deere Run, and the others on several occasions throughout their careers. Due to the Doak design and a much-needed accommodation for windy days, the fairways are wide at the Renaissance Club. Keep it free from those 42 fairway bunkers, and players hit more than 70% of their GIRs. Send it a little further down the fairway with some speed, and that success rate increases. The average par 4 at RC is 458 yards. The ability to drive the ball 330 with a little roll is a considerable advantage. Those fairway bunkers I mentioned, most of them, can be carried by the Rorys of this field. Wide fairways and carrying the trouble are why the first building block of our outright card is ball speed.
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At 7,000 sq/ft, the greens are not small. Historic data shows the field will hit more than the TOUR average of GIRs. The contenders are going to hit a ton of GIRs. Proximity to the hole is vital to winning. Putting across these flat, slow surfaces is difficult to do for 72 holes. At the speeds these putts will be rolling, it is hard to convert birdie chances. Many pundits overlook approach play this week, but I think it is key. Our outright card is filled with the best iron players over the last two months. The RC presents a wide range of approach lengths. You can't just key in on wedge players or long iron guys. Nearly a third of the approaches come from a tee box. Take care of the par 3s with your iron game, and you'll be differentiating yourself from the rest.
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The Renaissance Club has presented a bunch of shots from inside 75 yards. I use scrambling as a key metric this week. I do that because SG: ARG only measures the short game shot against the field. Scrambling includes the putting, and these greens are tough to close out from 8' and in. Nicolai Højgaard leads the field over the last few months converting putts from 10' and in. One of the main reasons why he has been so good here. That and he bombs it off the tee. Scramblers score on par 5s and short par 4s. They not only save par, but they convert scoring chances from close range when they can. I also think it helps to have shown success overseas when it comes to around-the-green play. The turf interaction with the club is different and the roll-out. Part of the reason Bermudagrass players tend to play well in Scotland is the short game acumen. Predicting grain, bounces, and the difficulty of sand shots are all part of the examination.
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Putting requires multiple skill sets when we cross the Atlantic. Adjusting to slower green surfaces is the first step. The greens tend to be flatter in the British Isles due to the wind, so putting without slope is another feature to figure out. Winners at the Renaissance Club convert their close putts. Do not three-putt and finally when called upon off the green, find a way to roll it close with the flatstick from off the green surface. Some lies are so tight, or the slope situation does allow a play with a wedge. Specific players are just better at putting from off the putting surface. Using the putter properly the next two weeks requires multiple skill sets. Those players who have proven they can do that are the smart choice.
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The last four Champion Golfers of the Year have finished twelfth or better at the Scottish the week before they won. This venue is a great preview for more of what we will see next week. I'll be taking notes, and you should too. These two weeks go by quickly and are ones we can definitely take advantage of with our research and course information. After all, where else have you seen the new routing? Set your alarms and enjoy the early morning golf. For fans, this is one of the best times for watching golf throughout the season.

Outright Winners - Genesis Scottish Open

LPGA

Major season continues...

There are a ton of major championships on the professional golf calendar. Nine in the last 13 weeks if you include the PGA TOUR Champions, PGA TOUR, and the LPGA. Why not two more in the next two weeks! The LPGA travels to beautiful Evian-les-Bains, France for the Amundi Evian Championship. Many golf purists will argue that the Evian is not a major championship. This is the 32nd year of the event and 13th as a major championship. From an RTL perspective, I don't care if you’re playing the Evian, the ISCO, or the US Open, a +5000 winner pays 50-1 at all of them. A field of 132 women will compete for $9.1 million and a major title. The top 65 and ties play the weekend for a first-place prize of $1.365 million. Twenty-three of the top 25 women in the Rolex World Rankings are ready to take on the Champions Course at the Evian Resort alongside gorgeous Lake Léman.
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RTL readers will all remember who won last year. Grace Kim played her last six holes in seven under par. The last two were in a playoff against our outright prediction Jeeno Thitikul. Coincidentally, Thitikul's number is the same as last year. One of the worst beats of 2025 for us, Grace chipped in on the first playoff hole after she hit her second shot into the water. I cannot relive it anymore. Kim won, we lost, and the LPGA is back for another year in the Alps.

Mountain golf

For the second week in a row, we have a par 71 scorecard. TPC Deere Run was a little more traditional, taking away one par 5 and replacing it with a par 4. The Champions Course has four par 5s, nine par 4s, and 5 par 3s! The official tournament card reads 6,479 yards for the 2026 edition. Approximately 48 yards shorter than the 2025 course. Calling all approach artists, 28% of your iron shots will be from the tee box on those par 3s. To no surprise, recent top 10 leaderboards tell us that scoring on the par 3s is a serious edge. Over the past decade, the average winning score is 15 under par. Since becoming the LPGA's fifth major championship in 2013, the event has not had a repeat winner. Sorry (not sorry) Grace Kim. The Champions Course sits on a hillside and, at this elevation (1,575 feet above sea level), will lose about 3% of the scorecard length. The longer holes tend to go downhill, like the 205-yard par 3 fourteenth, while the short 331-yard 17th hole goes uphill.

Why the LPGA places a major against the Genesis Scottish Open, I do not know. There's only one AM golf television window, and they will be watching Scottie, Rory, and Rahm at the Renaissance Club. One more thing for Craig's team to improve looking ahead to the 2027 LPGA schedule. I understand they didn't want back-to-back major weeks on the calendar, but this is worse from an audience growth perspective. Twenty-one under par is the major tournament record by In-gee Chun back in 2016. Seventy-eight bunkers across the scorecard are not enough to slow this field of elite players down. Sidehill lies and major championship pressure are really what curtail scoring. The green surfaces are covered in a Bentgrass-Poa mix and three holes have water in play. Two of those penalty area holes are 16 and 18. We are all familiar with the closing par 5 and the drama it can create. The average par 3 and par 5 yardage both went down due to the card changes. We'll cover this more in the next section, but score on the shortest and longest holes and you have a precise blueprint for success.

How to win?

Quick starts are a thing at the Evian. Eleven of the last 12 winners have been well under par in the opening round. Nine have rounds of 66 or better, and their Round 1 scoring average as a group is 65.8! Therefore, I have some fast starters on our sheet. In many ways, it makes sense. Opening a major championship with the lead (or low score) does two things. One, it gives the player great confidence, and two, it makes the field play catch-up on a major test. As much as the Champions Course seems getable, that also means it is scoreable for the players in front of you. The tendency at the Evian is that those in front tend to stay there.
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In 2022, Brooke won just three starts before she took home the Evian title. In 2024, Ayaka Furue had four top 10s in five individual starts before her Evian victory. Three years ago, Celine Boutier won the Evian and followed it up with another win in Scotland the next week! Grace Kim? Well, it would have been tough to see that one coming. Kim had one top 10 in 2025 before taking home the Evian trophy. A majority of Evian winners do show solid form before winning. Comparing career history is important on the Champions Course, but I also want players who are competing at a high level in the last month. Especially when you consider these women have played two majors in that window. Does the LPGA have too many majors jammed into a small window on the schedule? Yes. That also gives us an idea of who is performing in these elite events.
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The Evian is one big accuracy test, and if you're going to cut down this field to a small list of probable winners (aside from Nelly Korda), your knives (picks) better be sharp. As usual, I went through the trends from the last four Evian top 10s. This hillside setting is one of the biggest challenges players have for 72 holes. I don't believe there's a level lie on the entire scorecard. Take a look at how it affects the field on the specific par categories.

• There are FIVE par 3s to contend with. Players are hitting those par 3 greens 71% of the time. They represent 28% of the holes you will play. The 3s go uphill/downhill and vary greatly in length from 151 to 205 yards. 70%+ is a high number. Scoring on these holes is vital. The last few top 10s are averaging 2.95. Under par across these five tests by the tournament contenders proves this is the number one place to separate from the competition, and that's why all of our outrights are in the top 20% for par 3 scoring in the field.
• The key to playing the par 4s is hitting GIRs. Over eighteen holes, these same top 10s hit 77% of their GIRs. Last year, they averaged 79%! On the par 4s, that number drops to 63% for the field. Playing well on these varied hillside holes is a huge part of the scoring formula. What's even more interesting is that the par 4s average 390 yards in length. If total length isn't the issue, we are going to stick with the most accurate par 4 scorers.
• The field hits the fairway on the par 5s less than 60% of the time. The average for hitting all thirteen fairways in a round is 70% for the four top 10s studied. Our outrights must get it in the short grass to take care of the 5s. That's an interesting observation, as it tells us being a bomber isn't good enough on this layout. Length is an advantage most everywhere, but course history and managing the par 5s from the fairway have proven to be even more important.

The Champions Course puts forth an endless amount of scoring chances for those ladies who can hit their targets. T2G leaders on the LPGA have an advantage. The average winning score over the last 5 years is 16 under par. Those same top 10s average 20 sub-par scores over 72 holes. Will the ladies need to save a few pars with their short game? Surely, but bogey avoidance is less weighted at Evian than the other four major championships. With these slopes, you will have to convert those birdie chances. Strokes gained putting was just slightly beneath SG:APP for impact on those leaderboards. We established how important the iron game is, but the putter needs to perform as well. The greens are below average in size this week. Hit the center and you will have a reasonable scoring chance. Our outrights not only reflect those women who lead strokes gained putting, but putts per GIR as well. When it is time to convert, you have to put the ball in the hole.
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Few consider the Evian to be worthy of major championship status. Fact is, the category of tournament is kind of irrelevant. Winning on the Champions Course takes a major skill set. Seven of the last 12 Evian winners are multiple major winners. Only one American has won this event since it acquired major championship status. Can Nelly take down her third major of the season? Korda has a couple of top 10 finishes here, but none in the last two years. Great accuracy mavens excel across this sloped setting. We are running with the best ball strikers who have been scoring in the last few weeks. Those "weeks" just happen to include the US Open and PGA Championship. In the last four years, nine of our outright predictions have finished in the top 10 and we won in 2022. Our process for the Evian works, let's use it to get LPGA win number four this season.

Outright Winners - Amundi Evian Championship

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