Close encounters

For two straight weeks, we have finished runner-up on the PGA TOUR. Ryan Gerard secured our first second place at The American Express, and Pierceson Coody finished in the same spot at the Farmers. I have no delusions, Coody was close to winning with Rose's record performance, but we are close overall. At the AMEX, we had three outrights finish in the top 8 places. We backed that up at the Farmers with three more guys in the top 11; two in the top 5! Did we win..? No. Guess what, with this many close encounters, the wins are coming. That's 13 runners-up in the last 12 months. The tables are about to turn, and what better place to grab our first outright of the season than the WM Phoenix Open? Known to everyone as the "People's Open," the most-attended outdoor sporting event is about to take center stage in the golf world.

With all due respect to LIV Riyadh, four of the top 10 and 69 players in the top 100 of the OWGR are in Scottsdale, Arizona. A purse of $9.6 million is nice, but even more important are the FedEx Cup points and AON standings. These players all want signature status. One hundred and twenty-one players will play 36 holes. The top 65 and ties compete over the weekend for a $1.73 million first-place prize. The greatest show on turf, over 700,000 fans will walk the grounds at TPC Scottsdale. If the Farmers is akin to wheeling the shuttle over to the launching pad, the WM is lift off! If the scene wasn't going to be wild enough with Scottie Scheffler in the field, Brooks Koepka is also coming to the big party. Champion in 2015 and 2021, Koepka made the cut in San Diego and finished the week ranked eleventh in ball striking T2G. The putter failed on the Poa Annua, but it has cashed multiple times at the WM. Believe the hype, the desert is about to go nuclear when every bros favorite player returns to golf’s stage.

WM Phoenix Open starts in...

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Good PLAYERS win

Eleven WM Phoenix Open winners have also won THE PLAYERS. No, they both aren't Pete Dye courses. The late Tom Weiskopf designed TPC Scottsdale in 1986. A risk-reward template for so many tournament venues to follow, Tom's TPC is best in class for the TOUR's course network. The course measures 7,261 yards and plays to a par 71. Just three par 5s, those 11 par 4s better have your attention. The average winning score at the WMPO is 20 under par over the last five years. Vegas set the over/under for the winning score at 20.5 under par. There's going to be more than fireworks when this cast of competitors shows up. The average cutline is 0.4 strokes under par over the last decade. Considering the winner will be in the 20s, and the cut is even par, volatility is definitely on the menu at the TPC Scottsdale’s halfway house. That's the beauty of this competitive layout. Weiskopf asks players to be decisive. In doing so, we get some unbelievable entertainment. Six of the last 10 WMPOs have ended in a playoff.

A quick study of the winner's pre-tournament odds tells a similar story. Six of the last ten winners had odds under 50-1. The other four were further down the board. Yes, Scheffler, Matsuyama, and Koepka have won six of the last 11 WMPOs. For every Scottie or Hideki, we get a Detry or a Taylor. TPC Scottsdale is ranked inside the top 5 most predictive courses on the PGA TOUR. It is up there with venues like Wai'alae CC and Augusta National Golf Club! Hold a good history here, and chances are you will contend again. Why? I believe it is part atmosphere, and a large part the golf course. Why the connection to TPC Sawgrass? Both are hold back or attack havens. Miss the grass in Scottsdale, and you'll risk a double bogey. The same is true in Ponte Vedra. US Open contenders also play well here. Scottie, Brooks, Woodland, and Webb Simpson all have wins here in the last eight years. A couple of other comp courses; keep an eye on the leaderboards at Pete Dye's Stadium Course from a couple of weeks ago. Especially with the newly renovated greens. Muirfield Village is another comp venue. Take a look at those success charts; they mirror the desert, too!

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How to win?

Pull away all of the stands and legions of fans, TPC Scottsdale is one of the better venues on the PGA TOUR. This is one of my favorite weeks to watch golf. Having covered this event many times on-site, I can assure you all golf fans should put the WM Phoenix Open on their bucket list. It's a ton of fun. The people watching alone is worth the price of admission. What makes TPC Scottsdale such a great venue? The answer (and essence) to that very question forms an excellent blueprint for what it takes to win the WMPO. Let me walk you through it...

• Approach play is key, but the driver is where winners separate at TPC Scottsdale. The tenth shortest course on TOUR annually has one of the longest driving distance averages on the PGA TOUR. Last year, the driving average was 16 yards longer than the week-to-week standard. Over the last 10 years, players have used their driver off the tee 86% of the time. In 2025, that average was 90%! With 28 acres of fairway, these are not huge landing areas. The left miss is a killer, and we find left to right ball strikers have a distinct advantage. Four of the last six driver tee shots have a penalty area left. Why do PLAYERS' winners excel here? It is a similar test of accuracy and aggressiveness. I mentioned US Open winners earlier, they too use their driver to differentiate. We don't weigh the big stick this much very often, but when it comes to the WMPO, you’d better give it a serious bump in your research.
• The greens are the sixth largest on TOUR at 7,100 sq/ft (on average). Large putting surfaces generally mean watch for three-putting. Not the case at TPC Scottsdale. The WMPO has the third-highest make percentage over 15' on TOUR. Players MAKE putts here. We see that in the strokes gained on the greens. The last five winners have gained an average of +6.2 strokes on the field with their flatstick. Large gains generally come from making lengthy putts. Keep an eye on the guys who are solid inside five feet and drop bombs from 20+. It's an interesting list, and one that is a foundational brick in this week's betting card.
• Big greens give us high GIR rates. Filter for proximity this week and within the range of 150-200 yards. That's where a large portion of the approach shots come from. Players who are sharp from that range are a focus, but there's another game feature I have my eye on when it comes to approach. TPC Scottsdale is at 1,250 feet of elevation. That's a carry increase of approximately 1.2-1.3%. Guys who are good at adjusting for elevation have a separating skill. Another reason why this place is so predictive is that once you know your yardages here, you have an edge on the debutants and those still trying to figure it out!
• Par 4 scoring, par 4 scoring, par 4 scoring. The last five winners have gained over 12 strokes on the field on the 4s. It's a real thing. To compound the "4 effect," the four par 3s all have a 3.0 stroke average. Players gain fewer strokes versus the field on the 5s than on the 3s! Concentrate on the 4s; they are a vital key to victory.
• Scoring alone is another key consideration. TPC Scottsdale presents a number of scoring chances. Thirteen holes have a birdie rate over 15%. We will see plenty of eagles this week. Last year, there were 56 eagles; two hole-outs from the fairway and a hole-in-one! Toss in 1,500 birdies by the field, and BoB% is a skill worth noting as well. For the week, the field was 433 under par at TPC Scottsdale in 2025. When you think about the winners (and contenders), they are all guys who put circles across the scorecard. Nineteen rounds of 65 or better were scored a year ago, and the first seven names on the leaderboard fired four rounds in the 60s.

Dominate with the driver, hit your "elevated" numbers with your mid irons, and make three +20 footers each round, and you'll be there right next to Scheffler on the leaderboard. I've left the world's number one strategy to the end. I'm not taking outright bets with Scottie in the field. When it comes to DFS, once you take Scottie, your remaining player average is $7,100! In 2022, we predicted Scottie's first win at +2800. His odds this week are below +200! Readers know we will get creative when it comes to Scheffler, but on this course, where he has won twice in four years, sticking your arm in the gorilla pen is not a good idea. Pay attention to your picks, and make sure you choose the markets you intended.

Outright Winners - WM Phoenix Open

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