Show me state

Another podium finish for RTL and Sam Burns. That’s 15 top 3 finishes on the PGA TOUR in 30 events we have covered this year! It’s starting to feel like Scottie Scheffler’s 2026 season… well until this past Sunday. Be careful what you wish for, plenty of pundits and fans alike were asking the question: what is wrong with the world number one? Turns out nothing as Scottie burned the field in Memphis. Just when everyone thought there might be a moment where another player would take home player of the year honors, Scheffler played his final 54 holes at TPC Southwind in 15 under par. Second place was nine under. With the win, Scottie guaranteed he would be ranked number one on the FedEx Cup points list in Atlanta.
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Did I mention we have another tournament to play before we even get to the Tour Championship?
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The BMW Championship takes us to Bellerive Country Club in St. Louis, Missouri. Host of the 2018 PGA Championship. Won by Brooks Koepka over a charging Tiger Woods, the players do not have far to travel for the next leg of the FEC Playoffs. The top 50 in the FEC rankings make up the field. There is another $20 million in the purse, and the winner will receive $3.6 million. The top 50 have also earned another amazing benefit. By securing a spot in this field, they are all invited to the nine Signature Series tournaments in 2027. With so many questions remaining about the 2028 two-tier schedule format, getting into the BMW is a massive opportunity. Signature events offer extra FEC points. By gaining access to those elevated events, all 50 have a huge edge on their fellow PGA TOUR counterparts. Jordan Spieth, Brooks Koepka, etc. I strongly recommend you get inside the top 60 this fall. For now, the cutline looms again. Fifty will quickly be cut to 30 for the Tour Championship. No rest for the bottom of the field, and we know one spot in the top 5 is already taken at Bellerive by Scottie Scheffler. The man looks determined to assert his dominance to close this campaign.

BMW Championship starts in...

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Bombers paradise?

For the FOURTH week in a row and 10th time over the last 14 weeks on the PGA TOUR, we have a par 70 scorecard. Wanna slow down scoring, remove a couple of par 5s? If only it were that easy, LOL. The official card lists 7,448 yards, which is 132 yards longer than the course for the 2018 PGA Championship. We are going to hear a ton of PGA talk this week, and with good reason. We are back at Bellerive Country Club in the suburbs of St. Louis at almost the exact same dates as that major championship. For those who are new to golf, the PGA used to be played in August before Bethpage Black in 2019. This was the last August edition, and that's helpful because it will help us handicap the course conditions. Some changes have been made to the layout, but the Rees Jones basics are the same. When I look at this golf course, what most concerns me is the agronomy and the weather. The greens have been changed to a new strain of Bentgrass, but will that even matter with this forecast?

Forty-two of the top 50 players in the OWGR made it into this 50-man field. One player (Sungjae Im) jumped from outside the top 50 into the BMW Championship in Memphis. If the TOUR plans to engage fans with any relegation talk, there needs to be more movement on the FEC leaderboard. Before we get started in St. Louis, 26 players have a 96.6% chance of getting to the Tour Championship. So four spots might be in play? Well, if that is the case, there might be a little drama, but overall, if less than two players make the move, these playoffs will have been a total dud. We have seen Bellerive twice this century. Once for the PGA Championship (2018) and the other edition was for the BMW (2008). Both leaderboards tell a story. Only Adam Scott played in both tournaments, and just 17 of the 50 played in the 2018 PGA. What is really interesting are the two leaderboards. The 2008 version favored a fair amount of accuracy over length, while 2018 was a power display. Considering how many trees have been removed since 2018, and how much the professional game has evolved, I'm steering clear of biases from the 2008 event. The course was 200 yards shorter, and players were different 18 years ago.
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There are a couple of interesting comp courses for Bellerive that I think will help us diagnose the outcome. The BMW is similar to a major as we generally get a venue we have not seen for some time, and it favors a championship setup. That's one of the reasons why I believe the BMW is one of the best tournaments on the PGA TOUR. Aside from the amazing job BMW does as a host partner, the courses are always super competitive. I'm looking at Torrey Pines South (Jones), Valhalla, Olympia Fields, Aronimink, and Caves Valley for this one. Big ball parks that allow these players to use driver over 75% of the time. In many ways, TPC Craig Ranch makes sense with far less scoring potential. The average par 4 is 450+ yards, and two of the par 3s are over 215 yards in length. Toss in the two second shots on the par 5s, and there will be a ton of high-leverage approach shots in play. Brooks, Tiger, Adam, and Francisco in 2018? Four of the best 200+ iron players of the 21st century. That's enough to grab your attention. Let’s get to the outrights, and you can see who grabs mine.

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How to win?

What did we learn in Memphis? Besides the fact that Scottie Scheffler may be ready to rip through these playoffs. Seeing is believing, as Scheffler won by eight strokes, but it is also the FEC playoff trend. Since the PGA TOUR started playoffs in 2007, 12 of the 19 playoffs have had a multiple winner. Not all of the names are Rory or Tiger. Take a look at the players who pulled off the playoff two-fer.

• Tiger Woods (2007), Vijay Singh (2008), Camilo Villegas (2008), Rory McIlroy (2012, 2016), Henrik Stenson (2013), Billy Horschel (2014), Jason Day (2015), Bryson DeChambeau (2018), Dustin Johnson (2020), Patrick Cantlay (2021), Viktor Hovland (2023)

To further compound the point, the playoffs were reduced to three tournaments in 2019, and it still happened three times in the last seven years. Why? Players seldom rattle off multiple wins in a three- or four-tournament stretch during the regular season. The FEC format leads itself to multiple winners. Each round, you reduce the size of the field. If a player is in winning form, they go into the next week against fewer players. Yes, all of this is bad news for the rest of the field at the BMW. Although Scheffler would have a larger edge due to his accuracy at TPC Southwind, we now head to another (BMW) major championship venue. Where can the other 49 players find an edge against the world's number one? I've compiled a list that will work presuming a player can perform four of the six skills to a world-class level. Do that, and they may have a chance to push Scottie and possibly beat him.

• You are going to have to outdrive Scheffler. Bellerive offers 30 acres of Zoysia fairway. With larger landing areas than TPC Southwind, bombers will have an advantage over Scottie. Scheffler ranks 45th in driving distance. A majority of the bunkering is greenside, and there are not nearly the number of penalty areas off the tee. Drive it long and with a fair degree of accuracy, and you limit the number of mid to long iron approaches.
• Without a doubt, the best opportunity a player has to win this week comes on approaches over 175 yards. With softer conditions and receptive green surfaces, the best mid to long iron players will differentiate themselves. If Scheffler has a weakness in 2026, it is approaches over 175 yards. On approaches from 175 to 250 yards, Scottie doesn't rank higher than 40th. Elite proximity on the long par 3s and 4s, and second shots on par 5s will add up in your favor.
• Bellerive has 48 greenside bunkers. Scottie is ranked first in scrambling and 12th in SG: ARG, but 55th in sand saves! "So you're saying there's a chance..." Of course, Scheffler leads the TOUR in GIR%, but should he miss a few greens and find the sand, his birdie to bogey ratio will take a hit. Play great from the bunkers and maintain an excellent birdie to bogey ratio, and there's another slight edge you can gain on the St. Jude winner.
• As a par 4 layout, Bellerive has 12 par 4s. To take down Scheffler at BCC, you will need to play better on the par 4s. Trouble is, Scottie leads the PGA TOUR in par 4 scoring and par 4 BoB%. To make matters worse, if you track par 70 scoring over the past three years, no player is better than Scheffler. Tommy Fleetwood and Sam Burns come reasonably close, but not really when you consider how proven Scottie's skill set is on 70 layouts. If Scheffler is playing a par 70, he is probably competing in a major, playoff, or Signature event.
• Scheffler's long iron play has been average, and as a result, so has his par 3 scoring. Bellerive offers up a challenging set of 3s. None of these edges are easy to gain, but if you can outplay him significantly on the par 3s, you will gain a couple of shots on the 21-time PGA TOUR winner.
• Scottie Scheffler is having arguably the best putting season of his career. (sigh) Players can make putts at Bellerive CC. The greens are flat just like TPC Southwind. That's the bad news. Scheffler is ranked third in SG: Putt on the TOUR in 2026. He's ranked second in birdie conversation rate and average distance of putts made. He is also ranked first for putts made over 25'. To pass Scottie on the putting green, your outright is going to need to have a career week with the flatstick.

Scheffler is traveling with two young children, so he could get sick? All kidding aside, Bellerive is a vanilla venue. A few guys in this field are playing well enough, or have the potential to positively handle our outright winner list. Fact is, we cannot bet Scheffler at +250 to win the BMW. There is a prop angle to bet Scottie at +250 to win the FedEx Cup! With 30 players in the field next week at the Tour Championship, his odds to win will be near even money. Let's face it, due to the limited field size, lack of 36-hole cuts, and multiple winner history, the FEC are not a great golf betting opportunity. We will take any win, but I'm going to play the system and avoid the Scottie market. It reduces our odds, but allowing our outrights to finish first or second behind Scheffler is a win-win situation in this case. Enjoy Bellerive; who knows, we may get a couple of challengers against the world's number one, and this event will become an instant classic.

Outright Winners - BMW Championship

LPGA

Oh, Canada

Six players shot 135 or better over the weekend in Portland! That's nine under par for the final 36 holes. The number two-ranked player in the world, Jeen Thitikul, won, but not without a fight from Chanettee Wannasaen and Arpichaya Yubol. All from Thailand, I saw Wannasaen's week coming as we hit a nice placement prop on her. Thitikul's odds to start the week were in the single digits. If she wins, so be it. Yubol is an excellent ball striker and should have been closer to my radar. All three are under 24 years old and from Thailand. Needless to say, I think they were all familiar with one another. Thitikul's Sunday 64 started with six birdies in her first seven holes. Jeeno now has three wins in 2026 and seems to have held off Haeran Ryu's summer charge in the world rankings.

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Tournament officials north of the border have been putting together an excellent event for the CPKC Women's Open. Better known as the Women's Canadian Open, year after year these venues do not disappoint. For the 2026 edition, we are heading to Edmonton and the Royal Mayfair Golf Club. Set alongside a bend in the North Saskatchewan River, this parkland layout will be hosting the national open for the third time since 2007. Talk about a Hall of Fame wall of past champions, Lorena Ochoa (-16) was the '07 winner followed by Lydia Ko in 2013 (-15). Ko did it as an amateur! Thirty-four of the top 50 in the Rolex World Rankings have descended upon Edmonton for the LPGA's next event on the schedule. Including the number one player in the women';s game; Nelly Korda. The purse is $2.75 million with $412,500 going to the winner. A field of 156 players will compete for 36 holes and then cut to the top 65 and ties for the weekend. Covering this event over the past five years has been a highlight on the LPGA calendar. The venues have been so much fun to dive into. Not to mention, we have two outright wins and five more top 10 finishers in that short stretch!

Royal routing

For the second week in a row, officials have flipped the nines. Local players who may have walked the layout at Royal Mayfair Golf Club don't get confused. The players will start on hole 10 and complete their round on the ninth green. A par 70 scorecard measuring 6,452 yards presents the challenge on paper. Seventy-eight bunkers are squeezed between the tree-lined fairways. Those who traveled to Portland last week will have an advantage as what these women see on the tee should look very similar. There are three holes with water in play and the standard par 70 allotment of four par 3s, 12 par 4s, and two par 5s. The average winning score over two previous editions of the CPKC at Royal Mayfair is 15.5 under par. Looking back at those two championships, Lydia and Lorena set a high standard for the winner's circle. Between the two, Ko and Ochoa have 50 wins and five major championships. Not too bad...

The women are facing a couple of extra storylines this week. Outside of a Canadian, Brooke Henderson, trying to defend her title from last summer, the Solheim Cup is coming. Scheduled for the second week in September, the United States is looking to bring their 12 best players to the Netherlands. Seven players on that team are determined by the points list, and two more from the Rolex World Rankings. The final three players are Captain's picks. With less than one month to go, anyone in consideration or close on the points leaderboard has those thoughts to occupy their time. Much like the men and the Presidents Cup, if making this team is a personal goal, you have a decent distraction to deal with over the next two tournaments. I mentioned last week there are 10 regular season tournaments left on the schedule. Well, that number is down to nine, and four of those are limited field events in Asia. I bring all of this up as a matter of mentioning that these women have a bunch of storylines circling around in their heads. Major season just wrapped, and the regular season isn't far off either.

How to win?

The blueprint for winning at Royal Mayfair is going to sound very similar to last week at the Standard Portland Classic. Both are densely tree-lined parkland golf courses with the exact same agronomy. One of the unique aspects of Royal Mayfair's layout is the routing. No two holes seem to run in the same direction. As such, getting comfortable down beneath the trees, adjusting to the wind blowing above them, is likely the toughest part of this 72-hole test. The average green size at RMGC is 6000 sq/ft. Those are small targets, and to climb this leaderboard, you will need a strong week on approach. Hitting your yardages will be one part of that equation, and controlling your trajectory will be another. Get those iron shots above the tree line repeatedly, and you may start losing a little proximity. Of course, the higher the iron players are hitting in, the better the control. We saw this all last week in Portland. Hitting fairways was important, but the overall ball striking test really came down to two numbers: who could hit the most GIRs, and who could create the most realistic scoring opportunities inside 25'.
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It helps to hit the fairway if we are counting GIRs. This is another alley-like layout. Much like Columbia Edgewater CC, not only are these fairways tight, but they move. Twelve of these landing areas meander in one direction or the other. Constantly challenging you to move the ball left to right or vice versa. The best SG: OTT players start each of the 4s and 5s with a massive advantage. Toss in the fact we only have two par 5s, and I am raising the accuracy weight versus just looking at Total Driving. The average par 4 length is well under 400 yards (392). The ability to play from the fairway for those 12 holes will far outweigh and edge a player may have being 20 yards ahead and in the rough. The course just isn't that long. In many cases, the number of doglegs here will limit length and force the longer hitters. Alongside accuracy, par 4 scoring is weighted to filter this field.
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The Portland Classic is a shootout. Last week, 13 under par didn't even crack the top 10! Six of the last 10 CPKCs winning scores were in the teens. This becomes one of those weeks where bogey avoidance, birdie-to-bogey ratio, and scrambling matter. Canadian tournament officials do a great job of curtailing the final score for both the women and the men. Considering how good these players are, anything in the teens is a good championship score. The average score of this championship over the last three years is 12.3 under par. Not all of the best LPGA players have a strong short game. Haeran Ryu and Jeen Thitikul playing Portland and skipping this week makes sense. Only to be replaced by Miyu Yamashita and Lydia Ko. Nelly Korda is also back playing, which certainly helps the odds board, but keep in mind she is the best woman in the world.
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The course and the conditions call for around-the-green acumen and converting putts under 10'. I believe Putts per GIR is a great measure for converting more than just birdie opportunities. Putts per round is also an analytic I monitor. Think about it, players that average over 30 putts per round for the week with an above-average GIR% do not win. The fewer strokes on the putting surface, the better, no matter what. Those greens are going to perform much like last week at Columbia Edgewater CC. Only 14 of the first 25 on the odds board played in Portland, but we know who rolls it well on this carpet. That's the last line item to touch on. Looking at recent CPKC leaderboards, a couple of players have been quite consistent. Brooke Henderson makes sense based on talent and nationality, but there are a couple of others. It sounds crazy, but not every player cares each week. Look at the conversation surrounding Rory in Memphis. At times, it can be impossible to guess who wants to be there, but that's why I go on-site as often as I do! You can't ask, and you won't always be right, but body language, practice routines, coaches, and caddies give away a bunch of clues. There's a reason why RTL has 47 outright winners in the last 4+ seasons.
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I love the two Canadian Opens. If I had to pick one to cover in 2026, it would be this one. TPC Toronto is not the best venue, but Royal Mayfair Golf Club is, and I expect a very entertaining weekend in Edmonton. Three of our four outrights finished in the top 25 on Sunday. They each had a chance to make it their week. Contending matters, but not as much as winning. Let's cross the finish line, ladies, north of the border!

Outright Winners - CPKC Women's Open

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