The fairways are how wide..?

A final round double bogey on the twelfth hole ended our chances for another outright. Garrick Higgo held the lead with 18 holes to play. The low-scoring South African was poised to capture another championship on the PGA TOUR, and then a wild three-iron into a desert bush, and the rest is history. Higgo had 29 birdies and an eagle in Mexico and still finished three strokes behind the winner Ben Griffin. Congratulations to Griffin as he entered the week as the favorite. Much like Scottie in Napa, Griffin was the best player in the field and played better than his competition. We had three (of four) outrights in the top 11 at week's end. Another solid week of contending, our process is still being validated.

Part of the recent process has been the inclusion of a tournament preview show with Pat Mayo. If you didn't catch the link on social media or our website, you can check it out right HERE. Pat reached out a couple of weeks ago and asked if I would be interested in working on a preview show together. So far, the content has been great. Both of us are open to feedback on what bettors would want to learn. Please feel free to email RTL or message us online.

The Butterfield Bermuda Championship has reached its seventh edition. What began back in 2019 as a secondary event is now one of the weakest fields on the PGA TOUR. From Brian Gay to Rafael Campos, the average pre-tournament winner's odds are +13100! There are a number of great outright options in the 30-90 range, but when the wind starts blowing out on the island, anything can and usually does happen. For the second year in a row, the field has been reduced to 120 players. The top 65 and ties play the weekend for a share of the $6 million purse. Down $900,000 from a year ago, the fall trend of smaller fields and purses continues. The winner receives $1.08 million and a bunch of valuable FedEx Cup points. The cut down to 100 players for 2026 TOUR cards is very real. With just two tournaments left to play, those traveling to the mid-ocean have one thought in mind: status.

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Keith's Keys 🗞️ A couple of key skills you can claim as your own at the water cooler and cocktail party conversations. You can find complete explanations for each in the betting breakdown. Right ratio: When the wind blows, bogeys happen. Birdie to bogey ratio, bogey avoidance, and birdie average are the most correlated stats to success on the pink island. Wedge wizard: Power, Herbert, Gay, Todd, etc., are all great wedge players. GIRs aren't good enough; you need some serious approach radar this week to win. Bermuda blade: Large Bermuda greens on the edge of the island, affected by wind and slope, allow the best putters to separate in this field.

I just mentioned the wind, and it is going to be a factor. The forecast calls for a breeze blowing 20+ mph each of the four rounds out of the west. That's significant because Port Royal Golf Course rests on the west coast of the island. That 20 is going to feel like 30 when you are playing the back nine. An east wind would have been much better as the island can better protect the players. We are going to see some wild shots this week out in the Bermuda Triangle. Temperatures will be in the low 70s, and a little rain is predicted for Saturday afternoon. The weather can change here at a moment’s notice. Please use the real-time weather link for the most up-to-the-minute forecast. PRGC has been the venue for all six previous Bermuda Championships. A par 71 layout, at 6,828 yards, it is one of the shortest courses on the PGA TOUR.

Butterfield Bermuda Championship starts in...

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Under normal weather conditions, the final score would be 29 under par again, but normal doesn't happen out in Bermuda. The wind blows, and these 8,000 sq/ft greens become much smaller targets. Try putting 50' on an exposed green nestled against the Atlantic Ocean. The three par 5s have an average birdie rate of 45%! Contrast that with the three toughest par 3s. Those 200+ yards holes average a sub-par score just 8% of the time. That's the key at Port Royal. The course moves inland for the first six and a half holes. By the time you get to that seventh green, all bets are off. You are now near the water, and the wind kicks in. You will see a bunch of birdies on the early front nine scorecards. Get to five or six under and then hold on for the rest of the wind-affected way. Only 21 acres of fairway as opposed to 97 acres in Mexico last week! Seven holes have water in play. Three of which are 16, 17, and 18. Over 85 bunkers frame Robert Trent Jones’ green complexes and fairways.

Four par 3s, 11 par 4s, and three 5s make up the scorecard. The average par 4 length is 402 yards! Not nearly long enough, even with the wind to keep these guys from going low most of the round. I say most because when the elements kick in, and the ball starts going sideways, the targets tend to get much smaller. With the west wind, 10 holes will play with a crosswind. I mention this every year, but the island of Bermuda is the top of a volcano. The crest we see above water is the rim, and it is some terrific terrain for a golf course with incredible elevation changes. Compound the approach equation even further when you are hitting shots uphill (or downhill) for 18 holes. Controlling your trajectory will be key and something I will cover more in-depth in the outrights section.

Nine of the top 100 in the OWGR have made the trek to the middle of the Atlantic Ocean. Guaranteed those players need points. We saw it last weekend when a majority of the competitors making the cut were above 100 on the FedEx Points list. Recent PGA TOUR first-time winner Michael Brennan is the lowest OWGR player in the field (40th). Winning the Bermuda Championship no longer comes with an invite to the Masters, but it will give you a PGA TOUR card for the next two seasons. One more thing to take note of. Bermuda is one hour ahead of East Coast time. Don't miss a DFS lock or tee time!

How low can you go?

No strokes gained stats for Bermuda, no problem! Our first edge this week is having played Port Royal. I understand what it takes to score and stay out of trouble. The terrain changes are wild, and the wind, well, it never seems to go away. I have played it with the predominant west wind, so I have a great idea of the shots needed to contend. Those Sunday contenders will have their wedge game in order. Not just distance control, but their trajectory and spin as well. A big focus of my research was looking at ball flight charts. I take notes every week when I am on-site. I have sheets of handwritten charts and observations on all of the regular guys. Four years’ worth of tournament coverage adds up to a very valuable database of information. You have to keep the ball down in Bermuda. Our outrights are mainly lowball guys. Off the tee and with their irons, they tend to flight the ball down. Not the best strategy for most TPC weeks, when the wind blows, these guys always ascend the leaderboards.

Approach play is the best separating skill at Port Royal. Fairways are not difficult to find, and length is not a noteworthy asset. The greens are rather large, and with so many short approaches, it is imperative to narrow your proximity to the hole. It sounds easy with a wedge in your hand, but the test comes from the elements and the elevation changes at PRGC. Great iron players KNOW their carry distances. That confidence makes them better than their opponents when it comes to adjustments. That solid feeling they have at impact gets magnified, while others may doubt their distance. I took the best scoring iron players in the 100-150 range and then separated the best low-flight players. Turns out that list mirrored the course history leaders.

Looking through the most correlated stats for success, I found the top four were all scoring-related: birdie average, birdie to bogey ratio, Par 4 scoring, and BoB%. To win the Butterfield, you need balance. Players will make birdies, but how well can you limit your mistakes (bogeys)? The wind, terrain, and pressure will create misses. Where do those misses land, and how will you recover? Around the green acumen is not my number one priority, but I like guys with a decent short game. There are three par 5s and six par 4s under 400 yards. Many of those holes will allow you to attack from (very) close range. Scrambling is not always about saving par. Those are great scoring opportunities and must be taken advantage of. The best short game wedge players have an advantage, and that has been proven by the likes of Lucas Herbert, Brendon Todd, and Brian Gay winning.

Very similar to last week, you also need to convert on the putting surface. I believe this week's Bermuda is comparable to many Paspalum venues. The greens are big and grainy at Port Royal. The Bermudagrass around the green isn't long, but it is a nuisance. If it is tightly mown, many of the lies are into the grain, which makes chipping far more difficult. The rough lies aren't deep, but it is nearly impossible to control your spin and distance from the greenside grass. Experience on old school Bermuda is a distinct advantage. Our outrights have proven themselves on this agronomy. They can also putt. This event always comes down to one or two putts from inside five feet on the back nine on Sunday. I'm grabbing the guys who have proven they can putt this grain. Fourteen holes have a birdie rate over 15%. Players can (and will) make putts at Port Royal. Pick players who can putt!

Much like Pebble and Hilton Head, PRGC is a positional track off the tee. Get the ball in play and attack from there. Strokes gained OTT is the least correlated of the four main strokes gained categories. I'm definitely favoring guys with a left to right ball flight, but that's pretty much it for teh driver. Why L to R? Nine of the 14 fairways at PRGC move that way. Length has never been a theme on these leaderboards. It is all about wedge precision and putting. Attack the par 4s and differentiate yourself. Everyone will conquer the 5s, and the 3s just need to be played even par each day, and you'll have a half a stroke advantage on the field after each round. With two weeks to go, time is ticking for the players and RTL to grab a couple more wins. 2025 has been defined by several bad beats, but we keep contending. Let's get two wins between the tours before Thanksgiving, and that turkey will taste a whole lot better bettor!

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Outright Winners - Butterfield Bermuda Championship

Our man, Nico Echavarria, is ranked fourth in the field on approach and eighth in putting. An excellent Bermudagrass player, Echavarria has won in Japan and Puerto Rico. A couple of top 30 results at the Butterfield, Nico has the experience needed to navigate the Bermuda tournament triangle. A successful birdie-to-bogey ratio, we have seen Echavarria play and win in the wind. Four straight foreign players have captured this event because the playing conditions represent a global test. A mid-trajectory left-to-right player, Nico can easily improve on last week's fourteenth place. Nico Echavarria +3000 (DK)

The fantastic Fin, Sami Valimaki, made another statement in Mexico. Runner-up to Ben Griffin on Sunday, Valimaki made 30 birdies last week. The approach game is Sami's superpower as he leads the field in approaches from 200-225 yards. Looking for a par 3 killer on those 200+ holes, Valimaki gives us an edge. Seventh in the field, T2G, and second on approach, Sami will create another 30+ birdie chances. We will need those in the wind. Another left-to-right player, his power will allow him to hit shorter clubs off the tee, helping him control ball flight and accuracy. Sami Valimaki +5000 (DK)

Upcoming Fall Coverage Schedule 📅

A few of you have asked when all of the remaining fall events take place. Here's a summary...

• November 13-16
  • PGA TOUR: Butterfield Bermuda Championship
  • LPGA: The ANNIKA driven by Gainbridge at Pelican
• November 20-23
  • PGA TOUR: RSM Classic (on-site)
  • LPGA: CME Group Tour Championship

The Hero World Challenge and Grant Thornton take place in December and the TGL restarts on December 28!

Time for Tampa

The preview for the TOTO Japan Classic leaned heavily into a JLPGA theme. Unfortunately, we didn't get to see the tournament play out over four rounds, but when the LPGA pulled the plug before round four, 14 of the top 20 players on the leaderboard were from Japan. Each of the top 6 was Japanese, including our outright Shuri Sakuma, sitting just a couple back with one round to play. In true 2025 form, Nasa Hataoka took home the trophy after a one-hole playoff in the rain. Hataoka was a featured outright the week before in Malaysia! Let’s just move on to Tampa.

The ANNIKA driven by Gainbridge at Pelican has become an incredible template for where the LPGA can go. The penultimate event of the season, hosted by a legend, and played on an incredible Donald Ross design, is one of the premier tournaments on the schedule. With a rain-shortened Walmart back in September, we anxiously welcome the elite ladies back after eight weeks across the Pacific. I understand the LPGA must serve a global audience, but building a schedule that takes two-month breaks from domestic tournaments does not maintain any momentum for the tour in the United States after the major championship season. The return stateside also brings Nelly Korda back into action. The betting favorite (+700) has won The ANNIKA three times in the last four years!

The ANNIKA starts in...

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Welcome back to Pelican Golf Club. The only par 70 scorecard on the 2025 schedule, a field of 108 players will compete for a $3.25 million purse. The top 65 and ties play the weekend, and our winner takes home a check for $487,500. One of the top 10 prizes on tour, the addition of Annika Sorenstam to this event has certainly elevated all aspects of this six-year-old stop. The field size is a sign of the times. Much like the PGA TOUR, the LPGA is lowering the total number. Last year, 120 players competed for The ANNIKA crown. Beau Welling and his design team renovated the original Ross layout a couple of years ago. Wall-to-wall Bermudagrass, PGC is a beautiful example of great, subtle golf course architecture. With an average winning score of 16 under par and an average cutline of +1 over six editions, you know this is a well-rounded test.

Club leadership likes it that way and unanimously supports the women by creating an atmosphere unlike any other non-major championship venue. Don't forget, Fred Ridley is a member here. The most powerful man in golf knows how to run a world-class tournament. The rainout in Japan is the second time precipitation cut short an event in the last two months. Don't forget the Walmart in Arkansas back in mid-September. The players only managed one round that week. I'm pleased to report that the real-time weather link will reflect this, but we have a great forecast for the Tampa region. Just a couple of miles from the Gulf of America, temperatures will be in the mid-70s, and the breeze will be below 10 mph. No rain in the near future; we did get a small shower on Sunday. Just enough water to create championship course conditions.

Speaking of championships, the CME Group Tour Championship is next week, and only the top 60 on the CME points list gain entry (CME Points). That's pretty significant considering the first-place check is $4 million! You all thought I was kidding back in late August when I said these ladies need to think about the points race. After four straight limited field events, only 108 players get to compete this week. It is really tough to make the jump from being a middle-tier LPGA player to elite status. If you are in the field at The ANNIKA, you’d better take advantage. Avoid all 52 bunkers and pay attention to the 10 holes with water in play. I love par 70 tests. They tend to promote the best ball strikers on the Sunday leaderboard. All five former winners of The ANNIKA are major champions. That's fitting considering our host.

Tie a Beau on it

If you suffer from the chipping yips off of tight Bermuda lies, then Pelican Golf Club might not be the best venue for your next golf getaway. A carpet of carefully designed hills, humps, and hollows would challenge even the most skilled short game artist. If you take a glance at the strokes gained stats, it certainly does not tell the whole story. Pelican Golf Club is one of the most well-rounded tests on the LPGA tour (including major championships). Difficult green complexes are dotted with excellent bunkering and perfectly placed penalty areas. This is definitely one of my favorite courses to watch the women compete on tour, and it is because of the complete skill set needed to succeed. I'm starting with around the green acumen because we seldom feature short game as a necessary skill. Most venues allow the ladies to hit 80% of their GIRs, and this puts very little pressure on their pitching. Our RTL charts this week navigate us through some difficult waters, and the better your short game, the better your chances to win.

A lean toward short game implies that a little bogey avoidance wouldn't hurt. I'm definitely measuring birdie-to-bogey ratio, scrambling, and birdie-or-better percentage. How well can you score? How well can you keep that scorecard bogey-free? We've seen this over the years at PGC. Subtle slopes and odd angles off the tee keep the field on edge. A little positive experience goes a long way on Donald's original design. With a par 70 scorecard and only two par 5s, you must find a way to save shots when you don't get four par 5 scoring chances. A heavy lean on par 4 scoring is quite valuable with the field playing 12 of them each round. I say it all the time on the men's side, where par 70 layouts are more prevalent. It takes a specific style of player to succeed on the 70s. There's a reason why Nelly Korda has won here three times in the past four years and is one of the best players in the world.

The leaderboards do favor a little power off the tee, as PGC has 70 acres of fairway to find with your driver. Much like the WWT Championship last week, any real OTT advantage is sort of mitigated, but I don't mind a little length here. When it comes to ball striking, the real key is on approach. The last three top 10s gained an average of four strokes on the field with their iron game. With all of the various approach angles from the fairway, finding your proximity control at Pelican is not an option. I'm taking players who are coming in with their radar on. So many of these green complexes are well designed. The putting surfaces sit at funny angles and really test your eyesight. Those grainy surfaces are quite big. Eight thousand square feet (on average), great Bermudagrass putters are a strict focus. I looked at all of the recent results in Florida and other venues. Two weeks ago, the women were putting on Bermuda at the Maybank in Malaysia!

Those same three top 10s from 2022-24 hit 77% of their GIRs. Creating birdie chances comes from hitting it close. We don't need any GIR compilers. I want women who have been gaining on the field with their iron game in recent weeks and at this venue. Those same top 10s hit 83% of their fairways. This just reinforces the fact that OTT acumen is not a separating skill. Most see Nelly win, and they figure it is a power fest that rewards ball striking. On approach, yes, but what most miss is that Korda is excellent around the green, and she grew up in the region. The agronomy, topography, and climate all make her comfortable. Who else is able to play off incredibly tight lies and save their scorecard when needed? Those names are listed below.

It is time to jump back in the arena. We all know it has been a frustrating run in Asia. Nine top 10 outright results in four events. A quick bounce back to the States, and we are going to get it done. Heck, we won the CME last year, why not wrap up the LPGA season with back-to-back wins!

Outright winners - The ANNIKA driven by Gainbridge

When you elevate approach ball striking and Bermudagrass putting, Celine Boutier is one name that instantly pops into my head. With three top 10s in her last five starts, her lean is more than justified. Eighth last year at PGC, Boutier is sixth in the field on approach and ninth in putts per GIR. Celine has a nice balance of par 4 and 5 scoring to go along with her ability to avoid bogeys. Seventh in the field for birdie-to-bogey ratio, she finished top 15 in both Florida events back at the start of the season. Celine Boutier +2800 (CS)

Why is Hannah Green good in Florida? The tight Bermuda surfaces do not bother her, coming from the sandy soil in Australia. Green's last two starts: fifth and then second in Malaysia. Hannah started the season well in Florida with a twentieth and fourth-place finish. Classic designs with tight chipping areas tend to bring out Hannah's best. Remember that +3500 RTL win in LA Green gave us? I see that style of play coming again from the major champ. Second in the field for strokes gained total in Malaysia, get ready for another deep run like her fourth-place finish at PGC in 2022. Hannah Green +3500 (DK)

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