Point Taken π
Clarity JugI have great news... Scottie Scheffler is NOT in the field this week for the 3M Open. Back from Britain, we head to Blaine, Minnesota, for the seventh time. A rather new event on the calendar, it has developed quite a following from the fans (and bettors) in a rather short amount of time. I know from an RTL perspective; we had a wonderful win last year with Jhonny Vegas at +8000 (80-1) on a summer Sunday. The year before that, we touted JT Poston, who finished runner-up. Looking at the field of 156, I see a couple more very nice "fits" for this fun TPC layout. If the PGA TOUR has done one thing right when it comes to the schedule, it forces the middle tier to play hard in regular-season events. Signature status, Tour Championship exemptions, and Ryder Cup consideration have everyone's undivided attention. We know what to expect from Scottie Scheffler at this point, but for the rest of these guys, we need some clarity. Take Chris Gotterup, for example. Media may ask what his motivation is this week after an epic career run across the Atlantic? Gotterup is twenty-third on the FedEx Cup list and twenty-second in Ryder Cup points. A trip to the Tour Championship (without starting strokes) gives you a chance to win the whole thing and gets you into all four majors next season. The Ryder Cup opportunity for a kid from the Jersey shore answers itself. That's just one easy example. Just two weeks left to get into the playoffs, and 28 players between 70-100 on the FEC points list are here at TPC Twin Cities. There are another 15 on the list from 50-70, trying to secure signature status, and seven more from 30-50, attempting to make a move toward Atlanta or solidify signature status next year. These tour players have a ton to compete for right now. Don't forget, this is the first year we cut TOUR cards at the top 100! After the next two weeks, those looking to earn status outside the top 70 don't tee it up again until mid-September. Blaine, Florida..?Minnesota is commonly referred to as the land of sky blue waters. An interesting choice when you consider it sits thousands of miles from any ocean. But did you know, there are 11,842 lakes in the Gopher State?!?!? Believe it or not, all of them are not inside the routing of TPC Twin Cities. Just 27 water penalty areas around this layout, which annually competes for the most wet golf balls in one week on the PGA TOUR. A par 71 scorecard covering 7,431 yards, 15 holes have water in play. Keep it dry this week, and you'll most likely join the weekend's top 65 and ties. Those men will have a chance at $8.4 million and those coveted FEC points. A cool $1.5 million goes to the winner of this wet landscape. TPC Twin Cities is very wet in more ways than one. We know about the watery graves, but this region has received 2.5" of rain in the last week. To compound the saturated setting, seven inches of rain fell in June. Thankfully, there is just a little rain in the forecast for this upcoming week(end). We have a chance on Thursday morning before a front rolls in over the weekend. That event will change the wind direction from northwest to south. High heat and humidity will also keep the players wet. Shirts are going to be sticky as temperatures are expected in the low 90s over the weekend when these storms roll through. Perfect scoring conditions for a course that requires accuracy and favors length. Point and shoot across 18 holes as the 3M Open is a sub-par scoring fest. The average winning total across all six editions is 19 under par. 3M Open starts in...Our six winners have averaged 24 BoB scores during the week they won. Go low, or go home. To win this week, you will need to create 35+ reasonable birdie chances. One reason bettors love this event is the reward for picking the winner. I mentioned we took home 80-1 odds last year, but in the six previous editions, only one winner was under 80-1 pre-tournament. The basic skill set required is what all players on the PGA TOUR possess. Pick a trending iron player who wields a hot putter, and you'll be there on Sunday afternoon. I joked in the subtitle of this section about Florida. The Sunshine State has its fair share of lakes, but the best comp courses for this TPC test are found in Florida. PGA National, Innisbrook, and TPC Sawgrass all favor players who excel T2G. Another interesting factor that gets overlooked is that Blaine is 1,000 feet above sea level. That adds approximately 1.2% of ball flight. Combine that with hot, humid air, and the ball will be flying at TPCTC. What reads like a birdiefest, does require an above-average amount of accuracy. Not many shoot-outs on the PGA TOUR have an average cutline of -1 when the winning score is in the high teens. That's a large part of the fun, especially when you look at the finish. You can score on the closing holes, but feel a little pressure, and you might get wet. Four of the final five holes have water in play. When you consider all of the regular PGA TOUR events, this one always stands out in my mind. The course requires solid ball striking and scoring. Don't get me wrong, this isn't Riviera or Muirfield Village, but it does create scoring volatility, and we love that. Especially when many of these men have their entire year hanging in the balance. Let's dive into who those final contenders might be. With just two weeks left, the men will be feeling more pressure than usual to close this one out. Three traitsI've broken down the field and their chances to win by ranking them for their ability to do these three things. The first player characteristic I'm looking for is solid tee to green (T2G) play. Very rarely do we categorize players for their ability OTT, on approach, and around the green. Most weeks, we favor one or maybe two of these traits, but very rarely all three. Most major weeks T2G can be a qualifying consideration, but not a regular TOUR event. Players have to avoid double bogeys at TPCTC, and the best way to manage their scorecard is to keep the ball in play. Survive the whole week without a penalty stroke and you will have certainly done something. There's a ton of trouble here off the tee and around the greens. Both sides start with three holes where water is in play. Of the three skills, approach still carries the most influence, but don't discount the other two. The second skill I'm looking for is an aggregate scoring analytic. The six winners of the 3M Open have gained an average of 10 strokes on the par 4s. The three par 5s have a 43% birdie rate. If you birdie them all, you're still only 12 under par on Sunday. Since none of the par 3s have a birdie rate over 20%, if you plan to reach 20 under par, then you'd better play the par 4s well. Tony Finau gained 13 strokes on the par 4s the year he won. Five of the six winners gained more than nine strokes on the field playing the 4s. The strokes gained par ranges where players differentiated themselves the most display the most difficult par 4 range of 450-500.
Don't forget, we have five par 4s under 425 yards. 3M officials have been known to set some of them up to be reachable by a majority of the field. Any player in good form who can score on a 350-yard and a 507-yard 4 has my attention. Remember the comp courses I mentioned. Innisbrook or PGA National would be strong strokes gained par 4 scoring courses. Championship venues are won by playing the 4s well, and although TPC Twin Cities won't be hosting any US Opens in the coming decade, it does require you to manage these 11 tests. My third tool needed to win the 3M is the putter. Making 20+ sub-par scores kind of requires a hot putter, but I'll mention it because with the heightened pressure of the playoffs looming, the flatstick becomes even more important. Perusing through the most influential traits based purely on data and making putts from inside 10 feet, converting 20-footers, etc. are all at the top of the list. When you consider the soft course conditions, rolling the rock becomes an even bigger factor as you just cannot make bogeys or worse. All of those par-saving putts under six or seven feet are magnified. The greens are Bentgrass and in beautiful shape. The average green size is 6,500 sq/ft. That's about 1k sq/ft bigger than last week, but the way the TOUR tucks pin locations, you have to keep it close T2G and then convert. Five of the six winners have made over 300 feet of putts en route to winning: Vegas (308'), Hodges (353'), Finau (306'), Champ (364'), and Thompson (340'). That's a significant trend and one I would factor in. Past TPCTC positive experience weighs in for having the ability to convert that many feet. To put it in perspective, when Scottie won at the CJ Cup at TPC Craig Ranch he made 321' of putts and he shot 31 under par! We're looking for 20 under and still need to cover the same amount of distance. This is NOT a week where our betting card can play on team no-putt. That's why a player like Sam Burns is the favorite. Burns is sixteenth in the field for strokes gained putting and fifth for SG:APP. I'm not staying with Sam after two disappointing weeks overseas, but you get the point. T2G, par 4s, and the putter are the three traits I'm favoring to find our next outright of the season. We have had some incredible deep runs over the last few weeks, but it's time to go back-to-back at the 3M. We picked Vegas last year, and we can certainly do it again. The dog days of summer events on the PGA TOUR are upon us. Full fields for a couple of weeks and no Scheffler. Both of those factors favor our level of research at Read The Line. Outright Winners - 3M OpenCoffee golf continues...We have one major championship left on the Read The Line calendar for 2025. Next week, the women will play the AIG Women's Open, the counterpart to the event just witnessed by the men. Before we get to Royal Porthcawl in Wales, let's go back up to the western shore of Scotland for the ISPS Handa Women's Scottish Open. For the fourth time in as many years, our host venue is Dundonald Links just north of Royal Troon along the Firth of Clyde. It's the week before a major at Porthcawl, yet we have only four of the top 10 in the Official Rolex Women's World Rankings. Much like the PGA TOUR, this event is a collaboration between the LET (Ladies European Tour) and the LPGA. The two tours co-sanctioned the tournament in 2022, and Dundonald Links has been the host site for all three to date. These links also hosted the LET Women's Scottish Open three more times before the LPGA came in. Unfortunately, the cooperative effort has not produced similar fields to the strength we see in the Men's Scottish Open. Fourteen of the top 25 in the Rolex Rankings and just nine of the 19 winners from 2025 are playing. I realize developing a successful tour schedule is difficult, but the new commissioner must rework the 2026 version. The LET has more current winners (11) in the field, and it is one week before their Open Championship! I know, I know, I'm screaming into the βfirth of nowhere,β but if modern professional golf would just pay more attention to their competitions and the schedule, they wouldn't face 75% of the issues they take on month to month. Women's Scottish Open starts in...If we are heading to βLinks Landβ, then we will need a weather report. Dundonald Links is on the west coast of Scotland. To be honest, we aren't far from Portrush. Some of the reasonable summer weather we witnessed last week has hung around. The forecast calls for temperatures in the mid-60s with a steady breeze in the 12-18 mph range coming out of the west. There is a 40% chance of rain on the weekend. Overall, compared to the conditions the guys faced last year at nearby Royal Troon, the players have a better chance to lead the storylines over Mother Nature. A field of 144 players is in pursuit of $300,000, and overall, a purse of $2 million. The top 65 and ties will compete for a chance to capture the title. Dundonald is more reminiscent of the Renaissance Club than Royal Portrush. You are going to see a very barren setting covered in mounds and moguls. The 79 bunkers will surely leave a strong first impression. Start playing from the sand and you'll have time over the weekend to visit the Scottish countryside. These coastal links have some very precise landing areas off the tee and greens to hit. A par 72 test, it measures 6,538 yards. About 40 yards have been added to the par 5 fifth hole. Otherwise, these links are unchanged from the 2024 championship. Four holes have water in play, and they ALL are exposed to the elements. The only thing between Dundonald and the coastline is another golf links, Western Gailes. Split by a railway, these two terrific tests of links golf are an incredible Scottish setting. I have enjoyed covering this linkβs landscape over the last couple of years. The turf conditions are pretty firm in Scotland. Plenty of bounce will beguile these players as they take on the field and the fescue. I've mentioned it a million times, but I love this style of golf, and we get to see it for two more weeks. The AIG Women's Open venue in Wales is going to be similar to this setting. Pay attention to the LPGA ladies as they navigate these crazy contours. I can't believe more players aren't competing this week in preparation for Royal Porthcawl. Experience is the best club in your bag for the next two weeks, and there's little doubt our betting cards will reflect that. Including our education as we watch the Scottish play out. Enjoy the artistry and the early morning golf, just a couple of weeks left before we say goodbye to Europe. Fescue finnesseThe last three winners at Dundonald Links tell us a ton about what it takes to win. Sometimes we have a bunch of course and leaderboard history, and other times we don't necessarily see a pattern. This is the former; Ayaka Furue (2022), Celine Boutier (2023), and Lauren Coughlin (2024) are three very accurate players. Dundonald has 45 fairway bunkers. You cannot contend and continually hit them. Furue and Coughlin especially, are among the LPGA leaders in fairways hit. What is even more telling is their length. Lauren and Ayaka are both not long hitters. The recent top 10s at the Scottish Open do not place an emphasis on strokes gained off the tee. Keep it in play and you'll be just fine. Drive for show and putt for dough applies at Dundonald. The average winning score of the co-sanctioned championship is 17 under par. The three champions have averaged 23 sub-par scores. We can start with the best birdie makers, but what it comes down to on this Ayrshire coastline is the putter. The last three winners have gained an average of 11 strokes on the field. Contenders and champions can separate here from the field significantly with their flatstick. The last three top 10s have gained an average of five strokes on the field putting. Much like Royal Portrush, the greens at Dundonald give you small targets. These scoring surfaces look bigger, but between the wind and all of the waves (contours), they play much smaller. Youβd better learn these greens quickly, as getting 22+ BoB scores will require a fast start. Furue came into Dundonald playing well, Boutier won the week before at the Evian, and Coughlin won in Canada a couple of weeks prior. They hit the ground running and never looked back. Players in good form with the putter and on approach are my focus. That's the second most important place to look. Once again, the winners and those top 10s went wild on approach. Links golf is not just about hitting the green(s), but also controlling your spin and trajectory to achieve proper proximity. This place looks similar to the surface of the moon. To contend, you must knock it close. The competitors who create the most birdie chances inside 20 feet and convert have the biggest edge. I know that sounds obvious, but that's the simple blueprint for the Scottish Open. The recent contenders at Dundonald hit 80% of their GIRs (on average). Combine that with approximately 72% of their fairways, and we want the LPGA's most accurate current stars. You know I love to look at par scoring to see where the advantage lies. The contendersβ par 3 scoring was right around par. Which is interesting because the average par 3 length is only 154 yards. Imagine what those green complexes look like! Furue averaged 3.67 on the 4s and won by three strokes. Those top 10s also averaged 4.6 strokes on the par 5s. The average par 5 is just 516 yards. They are quite quirky at Dundonald, but in any case, the ladies go low on them. The formula for 17 or 18 under is to take advantage of the 5s and separate on the 4s. Eight of the 10 par 4s are under 400 yards in length. If you can handle 350-400 yard 4s, this is your happy place. Speaking of which, Happy Gilmore 2 comes out July 25 on Netflix; just sayin'. The field can find trouble here. The last two 36-hole cuts have been +3 and +4, respectively. Get the ball going sideways and you'll find plenty of plants. That's another reason why this links land is so stunning, the variety in the vegetation. After three years of covering this event, I have grown to love it. Like so many courses in the United Kingdom, amazing creativity wins out over ball speed. Look at those leaderboards in Ireland last Sunday. Those guys were ball strikers who could score in multiple ways. I like our card this week in Scotland. Our women have been on form and can entertain. They do so by being accurate and because they can hit all sorts of scoring shots. Watch them roll the rock and ring up some birdies. The last month, we've been very close on both boards, and it is time to get back to our winning ways. Set your alarms and enjoy the early morning golf. Just two weeks left, and although this one is not a major championship, it gives us a MAJOR chance to win this week and next. Outright winners - Women's Scottish OpenRead between the linesThe best place to follow news about Read The Line is right here! β Do you know what it means to be a member of Read The Line?We provide more outrights, prop bets, H2H matchups, DFS lineups, and One & Done picks. Hit the link above and see for yourself! β
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