Playoff Fever π₯΅
Round one returnsThe FedEx Cup race will never replace the Stanley Cup playoffs, the single elimination excitement of the NFL postseason, or March Madness, but when you take a top-line view of golf's playoff run, there are some interesting aspects to this season-ending trifecta of tournament theater.
Here's my favorite FedEx Cup playoff fact. We have witnessed eight multi-win campaigns to win the FedEx Cup in 18 years. No player has won more than two in any one playoff season, but guys get hot and rattle off wins. When it comes to betting outrights in August, don't be afraid to look for repeat performances. The most recent two-time winner was Viktor Hovland in 2023. He gave RTL members two wins to close the season that year! Tiger has four FedEx Cup playoff wins, but is not the all-time leader in playoff victories. Rory, with his three FedEx Cups, has six wins, but he's tied with another player. Any guesses? Dustin Johnson also has six playoff wins and a season-long FedEx Cup win of his own back in 2020. That's our primer, and here's the quick format summary. The top 70 point getters from 34 regular-season events get into the FedEx St. Jude Championship. The top 50 on the points list, not finishers, advance to the BMW Championship. Those 50 earn valuable signature status for 2026. Whatever that means before the schedule is announced. The top 30 on the points list after the BMW play in the Tour Championship. Those 30 guys get a chance to win the FedEx Cup (more on that in a minute) and an invite to all four majors in 2026! After a six-year experiment, the Tour Championship has dropped the starting strokes advantage based on your point standing heading into the final week. All 30 players in the Tour Championship will start at level par and compete for 72 holes. The low stroke play winner will be the 2025 FedEx Cup Champion. You may want match play, or another alternative to wrap the season, but this is a best-case scenario for 2025. The final event is no longer a non-betting event. Anyone in the field can win and earn season-long champion status. That's a massive purse for such a small field. Regardless of whether you like the three-week format or the final venue, this will bring excitement. Imagine if Chris Gotterup knocks off Scottie Scheffler in Atlanta? We love great endings in golf, and that would be a pretty good one after an incredible 2025 season! Hey JudeFor the fourth year in a row, we head to Memphis, Tennessee, for the first round of the playoffs. Sixty-nine players (Rory McIlroy elected not to play) will compete for 72 holes. The only "cuts" you are going to see going forward for the next couple of weeks will happen on Sundays. TPC Southwind is the host venue, playing 7,288 yards with a par 70 total. One of the more difficult ball striking layouts on TOUR, the average winning score after three years as a playoff event and another three years as a WGC tournament is 15 under par. I say it all the time, but remove those extra par 5s, and it gets difficult to go low. I included the WGC events along with the playoffs because they have a similar strength (and size) of field. TPC Southwind has gone under the (dirt) knife since we last saw this first-round playoff routing. All 18 greens were renovated, and approximately 50 yards were added to the scorecard. The average green size increased about 200 sq/ft, raising the average to 4,500 sq/ft. Why we head to Memphis in mid-August, I'll never know, but the weather will be hot, and contrary to the name, we do not expect to feel much wind. High temperatures are expected in the mid-90s with heat indexes over 100. It's the same weather pattern these players face every year in the playoffs. Crazy hot in Memphis, maybe a break for the BMW, and then another bath in Atlanta for the close. We don't have any rain in the forecast for St. Jude, but Memphis has seen its share. Over 53" of rain has drenched the region this year. To put that in perspective, west Tennessee receives an average of 56" a year! FedEx St. Jude Championship starts in...Even though July has been fairly dry, much of that rain fell during the renovation, causing delays. On-site, the putting surfaces look very new. It's impossible to factor in who putts well on immature greens, but let it be known this is already a discussion amongst the field. There's no doubt this venue could use an update from the 1988 version that the TPC network welcomed decades ago. Par 70 scorecards always catch my attention. You know I will be favoring the best par 70 Bermudagrass scorers in the field. Who are they, you ask?
If curious, who number 11 is, it is Chris Kirk. Yes, those names were in order, starting with the world number one. An interesting assortment of names when you look at five through 11. Being a great par 70 player involves incredible par 4 play, but most of all, it simply calls for solid ball striking. As we start to build out the betting card for the FedEx St. Jude, independent of the weather, new putting surfaces, and points, the fact is that TPC Southwind rewards trajectory and spin control. The TOUR has made the setup more difficult since the WGC transition in 2019, and the statistics show it. The last six winners at Southwind have gained an average of eight strokes on the field T2G. That's a pretty low number. In the six years, only one winner has gained over 10 shots T2G versus their competitors. That's a tough track to tame! As we build out the complete card for this week, those are my notes to keep in mind. A short field with Scottie Scheffler somewhat ruins the mood, but we'll find a way to predict a winner. That "Without Scheffler" market is live and one we will be using along with a couple of other creative ways to bet the FedEx Cup favorite. Back to back Bermuda...TPC Southwind played as the thirteenth most difficult approach course on the PGA TOUR in 2024. Recent winners of the WGC and playoff editions have gained an average of five strokes on the field the year they won. Prior champions of the St. Jude Classic gained an average of eight strokes on the field with their iron game. A par 70 scorecard and an average green size of 4,300 sq/ft add up over 72 holes. Southwind is an exacting layout for the TOUR's best 70 players. During the 2024/2025 renovation an average of 200 sq/ft was added to each putting surface. Will adding surface area to the green complexes make hitting them easier? Most will read the GCSAA report and think they are making the course easier, and for amateur players, they probably are. The reason, surface area was added to increase options for more hole locations. PGA TOUR officials set pins in aggressive spots. Tucked in nooks and alongside edges where penalties are in play. Smaller greens limit the number of options. With increased edge space, we will see some new (fun) locations, especially on the birdie holes like 2 and 15. The average player would think I have more room to hit the green, but the world's best aim at the flag and expect to land the ball within 15-20 feet. Their poor approaches will miss more greens. A good week with the wedge and you can save a bunch of pars, but by increasing hole locations, it can measurably make the course more difficult. Approach play was going to be a factor even if the renovation did not happen. TPC Southwind requires 20+ sub-par scores to win, and with very little wind and hot, heavy air, the guys will be making birdies. Twelve par 4s and you know where I'm going next. I love par 4 scoring on par 70 scorecards. The leaders gain an average of nearly nine strokes on the field each year on the 4s. The five toughest holes relative to par are all par 4s. Two of them, 12 and 18, aren't very long. They require the players to hit the fairway, avoid the penalty areas, and navigate a tight approach shot. Southwind has one of the highest water ball counts on the PGA TOUR. Even with a limited field size, the water just comes into play if you are trying to score. That "fire at the pin" mentality I described above does not always work. Throw in 75 bunkers and there's a bogey (or worse) waiting around every corner. Looking to increase the birdie to bogey ratio, then find the fairway. Much like Wyndham, the Bermudagrass rough at TPC Southwind penalizes players for missing the short grass off the tee. In 2025, Southwind ranked as the third most difficult on TOUR for hitting fairways. Out of 43 ranked courses, that's significant. Throw in this field, and there's a separation factor for those who can use a driver off the tee and not lay back to the wider sections of the fairway. We will see plenty of these guys play aggressively off the tee to gain that advantage. When you walk the course, you see it. There are two landing areas on every hole. There's a positional landing zone and then an aggressive route. The top 5 on last year's leaderboard are all point and shoot players. Hideki, Xander, Viktor, Scottie, and Sam (Burns) use the driver as a weapon. They see a line and attack off the tee. For years, it seemed as if there was an advantage if you played a left to right ball flight off the tee, and that top 10 from a year ago continues that trend. Only Bobby Mac and Xander play the ball right to left off the tee. The rest of them hit a right-handed fade, and it fits this landscape. Walking the course, you can see it. These fairways are annually ranked in the top 10 tightest on TOUR. The narrowest driving holes bend that way, and those that don't, you can play over the trees with a fade or fit something in. These little edges I observe make a huge difference. Zoysia fairways are another small detail some might miss. The ball sits higher on Zoysia grass. The best approach players love it because it allows them even better contact. An average iron player will lose some trajectory control and just launch the ball higher. We will be taking players who have a proven record on the Z-fairways! The greens and rough have the same grass as Sedgefield one week ago. We also have the same strokes gained par ranges. It makes sense, as we have another par 70 scorecard that measures around 7,200 yards.
Players can make putts at Southwind. Outside of five feet, the make percentage is greater than the PGA TOUR average. All 18 greens have been adjusted, but looking at the surfaces, you don't see a noticeable difference. The challenge at TPC Southwind comes from T2G. Back a good putter, and he can score if heβs under control T2G. We will weigh Bermudagrass putting stars as they historically have a little advantage, but brand new surfaces will be very firm and not show as much grain influence. It takes time for the greens to grow in. PGA TOUR courses continually make these 12-month renovation projects work, but the greens are never quite ready. Remember East Lake last August. Firm green surfaces will send the balls bouncing. Normally, Southwind is not a course where we worry much about around the green acumen. I'm modifying that mindset for two reasons this year. First, the greens will be harder because they are brand new. This will cause players to miss a couple of extra GIRs. Will it change things significantly? No. They are hitting wedges and nine irons on approach. A couple of timely missed greens down the stretch will test the contenders' short games; be prepared. The second, and more significant, is the green surrounds. They were regrassed with Zeon zoysiagrass. That's a fancy way of saying they will be super firm and very tight to play from. You'd better know where your low point is on those pitches and chips. Do NOT be surprised if this comes up in player interviews or during coverage. The field is already talking about it. My last outright note is to avoid Scheffler. The odds do get cut in the without Scheffler market, but let's just remember 22-1 on Matt Fitzpatrick is a far better return than we will get on any individual bet for football this fall. If you want to bet Scottie, go right ahead, I don't blame you. I'd even watch the FedEx Cup Champion bet value in the live markets. It currently sits around +250. If that number doubles, it is a great prop bet. Otherwise, I'm playing the without Scheffler market in Memphis. There's no rational way to convince me he isn't the betting favorite by a mile. TPC Southwind is all about ball striking, and Scottie is the world's best in every way when it comes to flag hunting. Not to mention, the world's number two player didn't even show up! I love our list of outrights and the complete card. These guys can win multiple weeks and have significant Ryder Cup motivation. Form, fit, and a full throttle approach fit my mindset for finding the winner or runner-up when Scheffler wins by four again. Outright Winners - FedEx St. Jude ChampionshipThe LPGA is traveling, they will be back next week at the Standard Portland Classic! Read between the linesThe best place to follow news about Read The Line is right here! β Do you know what it means to be a member of Read The Line?We provide more outrights, prop bets, H2H matchups, DFS lineups, and One & Done picks. Hit the link above and see for yourself!
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