Top heavy

I'm not sure I have ever seen a betting board quite like this one. There were times back in the Tiger days way before mobile betting when Woods would be +200 or +300 and the next closest player would be in the 20s, but having two favorites is quite unique. As Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy make final preparations for Augusta National, both have decided to descend upon Houston's Memorial Park Golf Course for the Texas Children's Houston Open. Number one and two in the world (notice I didn't say who was number one right now), Scheffler was the runner-up here last year while Rory used next week's Valero as his 2024 Masters prep course.

If the Florida swing is any indication of what's to come in a couple weeks, the close at Copperhead was a treat. Justin Thomas and Viktor Hovland in a duel chased closely by RTL's Jacob Bridgeman. Outrights are a tough get, contending is one thing, but I give Bridgeman all the credit in the world for keeping close on a Sunday with those two FedEx Cup Champions. Ultimately it was not our week, but a number of great placement bets produced a very positive card. For the next two weeks, we reside in Texas. Houston and then San Antonio before I head to the Masters.

Open to the public

The Houston Open has seen many iterations over its career resume. Once a direct lead up to the Masters it found its way to the fall season. After a couple of November turns, the PGA TOUR landed on Memorial Park Golf Course and a mid-March position on the schedule. The perfect prep course for Augusta National, the skills required to win this week will serve you well around Amen Corner. A municipal track in Houston, Memorial Park was renovated by Tom Doak in 2019. Brooks Koepka consulted on the design, but when you see the way, this course moves with the land you know Doak did most of the work. A beast of a scorecard, eight of the 10 oar 4s are over 440 yards long. A par 70 scorecard at 7,475 yards is a brute. Better fire up the record books, you know the best par 70 scorers will be all over our betting card.

For the second week in a row, we have five par 3s on the course. Those tests primarily define what it takes to play well here. Many pundits will push the power narrative this week. Our card will have plenty of ball speed guys, but those same predictions will have other specific skills as well. The average winning score is 13 under par since Memorial Park started hosting the event in 2020. Tony Finau is the only favorite to win here as Carlos Ortiz (+15000), Jason Kokrak (+6000), and our defending champion Stephan Jaeger (+5000) are the other three winners. The true measure of the man at Memorial Park comes from 30 yards and in.

Keith's Keys 🗞️ A couple of key skills you can claim as your own at the water cooler and cocktail party conversations. You can find complete explanations for each in the betting breakdown. Lag it up: The four Memorial Park winners have gained an average of +7.3 strokes on the field with their flatstick. Lag putting these delicate Doak designed surfaces will cause huge gains on the greens. Pitch perfect: Tightly mown areas surround the surfaces, clip it close from the short grass. Long range radar: Nearly 30% of your approaches are coming in from over 200 yards. A par 70 at 7,400+ yards requires a skilled level of proximity from long range.

Houston had a wet cold winter. They are coming out of it slightly as it has only rained 0.2" in March. The forecast calls for rain on Thursday into Friday. Fire up the Fanduel brokers and start adjusting the odds! I said it last week and will again at the risk of being redundant, play the best players. Trying to figure out the weather is like picking a perfect bracket, you'll never get it all right. Instead take those who you believe have the best chance to win. If we're in Scotland and it sets up like Troon did last summer, I totally get it. But last week was all a big waste of time. Eight of the final 10 on the leaderboard came from the bad Thursday-Friday wave including the winner (Hovland) and runner-up (Thomas).

Houston Open starts in...

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The rest of the weather looks warm and windy. Temperatures for rounds one and two will be in the 70s. Once the rain goes away, they jump into the 80s. We will have some wind all four days. Thursday and Friday look like the worst conditions, but again it's the weather. Plan for wind in the afternoon. All four cutlines were over oar and the average was +2.3 over four editions. Seven thousand square foot greens (on average) are full of Doak's delightful dips and turns. Putting is a thing at Memorial Park and you better be able to handle some of the most interesting surfaces on the schedule. Many like to compare Memorial Park to Quail Hollow and Augusta National. Those are two good ones, but I also like Riviera and Kapalua's Plantation Course. Driver, long irons, short game, and putting are the keys to those courses and this week as well.

Southern Hills is another great short game comp as the green complexes have a number of run offs and swales surrounding the putting surfaces. Get ready to chip, pitch, and putt off some very tight lies. Short game is not the only key here, but it has helped our contenders put themselves in position to try and take home the trophy on Sunday. You're going to need these skills to separate. In a unique twist for the PGA TOUR the field for this week was expanded over last year from 144 players to 156. For the second week in a row, we have a FULL field event. It surely was fun last week watching a cut sweat on Friday and two top players duel late through the Snake-pit. Nine different players held the lead or were tied on Sunday at the Valspar. That level of competition is great and just another glaring example of just how good these guys really are.

Bombs away..?

Tom Doak's green complexes are well... complicated. Large, undulating and unique, these putting surfaces really separate the contenders from the cut makers. I love a skill like approach putting for Memorial Park. A quick study of how Doak's design prioritizes this putting skill will have you tailing the best ball strikers with the flatstick. You don't have to look much further than the first hole. A 522-yard par 4, the start sets the tone for the round. You need ball speed off the tee, accuracy from long range (200+) on approach, and if you do hit the green, the ability to get down in two shots. Many players have length on the PGA TOUR. With a very low penalty for missing the fairway in year's past at Memorial Park, the driver is not the number one differentiating skill.

Attacking eight par 4s that stretch over 440 yards, three par 5s that average 609 yards in length, and two par 3s over 215, we know mid and long iron play are important. This particular precision player characteristic is not held by a majority of the field. Narrowing down our card, the best long range approach players are one of the primary priorities. For the second straight week, we have FIVE par 3s on the scorecard. Twenty-eight percent of your approach shots are coming from a perfect lie on these par 3 tee boxes. Both Jacob Bridgeman and Viktor Hovland finished the week tied for third in strokes gained - par 3s at Innisbrook. Viktor won and Jacob finished third.

The par strokes gained breakdown leads us down the long-range road for the 4s and 5s, but the par 3 fifteenth (155 yards) and par 3 second (167 yards) is where the four Memorial Park winners made the most of the 3s.

1. Par 3 – 150-175
2. Par 4 – 450-500
3. Par 5 – 550-600

Getting back to my 522-yard par 4 storyline, that approach is coming in from 200+ yards for the majority of the field. Twenty-seven percent of your iron shots will be from over 200 yards. As such, the field hits less than the TOUR average of GIRs. If you're missing GIRs, then your short game comes into play. This is the first of two reasons why touch from 75-100 feet is so important. The PGA TOUR average on approach from greater than 200 yards is 52'6"; that's the average! If the field is hitting it to 60' on the first hole, they are chipping, pitching, or lag putting their third shot. This is the point of differentiation for the field of 156.

Most players on the modern PGA TOUR can bomb it. A small collection is really good from long range with their irons. As such we can separate the contenders according to mid and long iron acumen. Finding those who can complement their long iron skill with a great short game and lag putting; that's the summary of Keith's Keys. Playing the first hole four times, you will need to be very good at those three skills to be even par or better. Looking at the official scorecard, we have four more par 4s over 490! I think you get the picture for Memorial Park.

Looking for a little more validation? Five players in the field have two or more top 10s at Memorial Park. Aaron Rai, Scottie Scheffler, Stephan Jaeger, Tony Finau, and Joel Dahmen. These five are straight flushers of the golf ball. Although they may not be the best putters from make-able range, they can lag putt and pitch the golf ball. Par 70 scoring is another feature unique to this week. Take a look at this list:

• Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Tony Finau, Wyndham Clark, Sungjae Im, Mackenzie Hughes, Harris English, Adam Svensson, Si Woo Kim, and Eric Cole

These are the top 10 scoring averages on par 70s in the field. Now Memorial Park does it with three par 5s, but this list gives you a clear idea of the type of player(s) we are looking for. These guys can score on par 3s and 4s. A successful strategy around Memorial Park if you plan to try and keep up with the top two.

I made mention of this in the opening, but Rory McIlroy is currently the best player in the world. If you like trends, the last three Masters winners (2022 Scheffler 3, 2023 Rahm 3, 2024 Scheffler 2) have multiple wins prior to putting on the green jacket. Is Rory poised for another win, well favoring bombers who can launch their long irons and score from on and around the green is in large part why he and Scheffler have separated themselves from this field. Trying to contend alongside them will be tough, but we have just the card to do it.

Outright Winners - Texas Children's Houston Open

Only five players have two or more top 10s at Memorial Park and Aaron Rai is one of them. Rai is an incredible long iron player who has just finished fourth (Mexico), eleventh (API), and fourteenth (THE PLAYERS). In three starts in Houston, Aaron has not finished outside of the top 20. Rain won’t bother Rai either, he’ll use two gloves to grab that trophy on Sunday. Aaron Rai +2800

Memorial Park requires incredible lag putting over four days. Andrew Novak is ranked third in the field for approach putting! A brute off the tee, Novak brings a thirteenth at the Genesis and third at the Farmers to Houston; both contested at Torrey Pines. I love his ability to play “long golf.” Andrew is the type of player that will surprise some, but not us for his ability to get the ball in the hole in Houston. Andrew Novak +9000

This too shall pass

The LPGA is back! It's hard to believe, but 12 weeks into 2025 and we are playing the sixth event on the LPGA schedule. The ladies have come back from the spring Asia swing and 142 women are set to compete in the Ford Championship presented by Wild Horse Pass. I have done my homework and can tell you that Wild Horse Pass is an actual place and not a new Ford 150 model; although it sounds like a great truck. Our defending champion is Nelly Korda, but guess what, she is NOT the betting favorite this week! A slight edge has been given to Jeeno Thitikul on the board. How can the number one player in the world not be the favorite after a seven win season in 2024? Believe it or not, due to the LPGA schedule, Korda has played just eight tournament rounds in the past 123 days.

Last year was the first Ford Championship, and we have already moved to a new location. The Whirlwind Golf Club's Cattail Course is our new venue in Chandler, Arizona. A par 72 scorecard measuring 6,661 yards, it opened in 2002. Of the 142 in the field, the top 65 and ties will play the weekend to compete for $2.25 million. The winner receives $337,500 and a bunch of valuable CME points. This is pure desert golf. Keep the ball on the green grass and you can score. This course can be tipped out and played at any length. With nearly 30 acres of fairway, everyone can tee it high and let it fly. Last year the event was played in nearby Gilbert, AZ. Both towns sit southeast of Phoenix.

Ford Championship starts in...

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This is the desert, so conditions are dry, firm, and fast. Golf balls will roll down these fairways. Far different from the Far East where the women faced wet conditions almost every week, temperatures start very warm on Thursday with a high of 92 degrees. It will cool off (slightly) for the next three rounds and only get to the low 80s. No rain in the forecast, and the wind predicted seems quite calm considering the wide open spaces these women will be playing on. Fifty-three bunkers frame the green landscape as well as one very large bunker surrounding the property. The course rests at 1,100 feet of elevation so even more carry for the competitors.

Five holes have water in play and the average green size is 5,900 sq/ft. Those surfaces are covered in a Poa Trivialis overseed and the rough is Bermudagrass. A different course, but last year's winning score was 20 under par. I get a similar resort feel from this layout. The average par 4 on the card is under 400 yards in length and all of the par 3s are a mid to short iron. I realize everyone is a rookie at this venue, but these ladies can light it up under these conditions. Beautiful weather, perfect conditions, and for a majority of the field too much time off! I believe we will see some eager players this week. Just one month away from the major season, it is time to start competing for LPGA's elite contenders.

Built Ford tough

Handicapping a new venue can be easily over analyzed. This is resort golf for the best women players in the world. Played at elevation with wide open fairways and approchable greens, low scores are my first priority. I'm going to use data from the desert last year, the fall, and our opening five events of 2025. I'm starting with the best scorers. Strokes gained scoring, birdie or better percentage, and birdie to bogey ratio all factor in. Surely Jeeno and Nelly will lead those lists, but my research will also drop a couple of other names who make a ton of birdies and those are the women we want to feature this week. The winning score will be around 20 under par with these conditions and we need players who can fill up the cup.

I'm not gonna lie, I want bombers too. Ladies who can let it rip at sea level let alone at 1,000 feet of elevation. Walking through the layout, there's a couple of opportunities where length will allow the field to cut some corners on doglegs and attack from close range. Without a huge penalty for missing the fairway, the longest players with great approach games will separate from their peers. Holes like 5, 16, and 17 allow for a direct line off the tee. Send it down there in play and all you will have is a wedge in hand.

Reports from the course say the greens are in great shape. If the plan is to make 20+sub-par scores, then you must convert with the putter. The best scorers are good putters. With less of a demand on ball striking and more on scoring from close range (short game, putting) really good putters can compete with the best in the world. They will have to roll the rock well to keep up with someone like Jeeno who is playing incredible golf. Just to give you an idea what elite is, Thitikul hits 77% of her GIRs and makes birdie 29% of the time!

Proximity to the hole is a useful skill as these greens do have some movement to them. This is probably the biggest challenge at this venue. Decent size greens with shelves and tiers can slow down players who don't put it close to the pin. GIR%, SG:APP, and proximity all give us a clear picture who can contend. Be aggressive to tight hole locations and you will miss a couple. These surrounds are tight to the ground. They move with the rolling hills and present some interesting chipping and pitching tests. You can get away with a loose cannon off the tee, but you better manage your low point on a chip to knock it close. Pitching on par 5s to make birdies and saving pars have me making sure I don't forget to keep in mind the best around the green gals.

That's the big question. Many of these players haven't played in 5+ weeks and the most recent LPGA start was three weeks ago in China. Nelly and a couple others would like a quick restart, but let's not forget the Chevron Championship is just after the Masters. The best spot on the scorecard to differentiate on the leaderboard are the par 4s on the Cattail Course. Half are under 400 yards and that's where most will make birdies along with the par 5s. Go low on the 400+ yard par 4s and you can win.

The best players in the world can score on the easy holes, AND the hard ones. Go low on the long 4s and tough 3s (two over water) and you will be a big part of the closing conversation come Sunday afternoon.

Outright winners - Ford Championship

After a fourth place finish at the HSBC, Charley Hull comes to the desert in great form. The LPGA attention magnet, Hull is eighth T2G so far this season and ranked fourth OTT. Charley hits a ton of GIRs so she can score. If one player is going to light this place up, I believe it will be Hull. Charley Hull +2200

Our theme of a bomber's narrative wouldn't be complete without Nanna Koerstz Madsen. Three top 15 results in four 2025 starts, Nanna is doing more than just driving the golf ball. Madsen is ranked top 10 in strokes gained scoring, par 4 scoring, and GIRs. She has won before, so I don't worry about closing and the edge she carries off the tee is significant. Nanna Koerstz Madsen +5500

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