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Paris Podium (part deux) 🥇🥈🥉
Medal countMuch like the men's result on Sunday, our 54-hole leader Andrea Lee decided not to close the deal in Portland. Moments like these make last weekend all that more rewarding. It is further proof that predicting winners on the PGA TOUR and LPGA is very difficult. I'm proud of the seven winners we have selected this season and look forward to picking more starting this week in Paris (again). The United States continued to assert its dominance on the men's side in global competitions. Since the 2023 Masters (Jon Rahm), a US player has won every elite event on the men's schedule including THE PLAYERS and now an Olympic Gold! When the Women's Olympic Golf competition takes place the field will have a serious storyline to contend with. The men's final round was one of the most entertaining Sundays we have witnessed since Pinehurst or Valhalla. Sixty women, nine of the top 10, 20 of the top 25 in the Rolex World Rankings comprise the medal field. Four rounds STARTING WEDNESDAY AT 3:00AM ET will compete for three places; gold, silver, and bronze. Olympic golf starts in...Le Golf National, take twoThe women will see perfect course conditions this week. Predicted temperatures are in the high 70s and low 80s with no rain in the forecast. Cooler and drier than the men's competition, the wind predicted each day does not register over 12 mph. Each of these elite women better bring the birdie luggage to Paris. We saw a shootout on the men's side and with a par 72 layout at Le Golf National measuring 6,374 yards these women will go low as well. To put it in perspective, Columbia Edgewater Country Club for the Portland Classic was won on Sunday at 22 under par! This Olympic scorecard is 100 yards shorter. These conditions will favor the elite players. Much like the men's competition, I expect the cream to rise in this medal chase. Accuracy will be the lead focus as the course has 25 acres of FW, 10 holes where water really comes into play, and 51 bunkers. The greens are large by tour standards at 7,500 sq/ft. Covered in a Poa annua-Bentgrass blend, they rolled perfectly in all four rounds of the men's competition. Based upon the changes to the scorecard, the landing areas, reachable par 5s, and par 3s will all play similar to what we saw in the men’s competition. Our winner was 19 under par, but nearly a third of the field finished over par. That level of scoring volatility is what made last week so entertaining. Each day, we saw a 62 or 63 out there. Be careful, because if you got just a little wild the high scores were there as well. The true test was the final five holes. It starts with the par 5 fourteenth. Then the back to back water framed 15 and 16. Seventeen and 18 played as the two toughest and close each round. A fabulous finish creates a ton of possibilities and if you can navigate them under par you will probably make the podium on Saturday. Podium plansIt is not often we see an exact professional blueprint for how to contend the week before a tournament. Le Golf National is a fantastic venue for major championship style golf. Aside from the risk reward layout, test of length and accuracy, it can easily host a great match play competition (Ryder Cup) as well as a stroke play event. How about all of the stadium seating on the hillsides overlooking each hole. That final four hole amphitheater rivals the Stadium Course setting at TPC Sawgrass. It was amazing to watch the men last week and we are definitely blessed to see this place again. Scottie Scheffler finished last week ranked first in approach, third off the tee, and eighth around the green. Per his usual putter struggles, Scheffler actually lost strokes (-.36) putting and still won the gold. What we learned is that keeping the ball in play and attacking with your iron game is the best path to the podium. Six men from the top 10 were ranked inside the top 10 for strokes gained approach. These are very large green complexes. Players can limit stress and score more often with an accurate approach game. I'm comparing GIR, proximity, and SG:APP to find our outrights. Getting to the green starts by hitting the fairway at Le Golf National. Two things about the men's competition really stuck out off the tee. Players used driver very few times to focus on hitting fairways. Second, when they missed the fairway, there was a definite penalty for doing so. Even the intermediate cut of rough was pretty much unplayable from an attacking the green point of view. I put together a specific chart for last week favoring accuracy over length for the Portland Classic. As we know, SG:OTT favors length and we need the short grass. Our ability to handicap Portland shows this method really means something. I'm using it again to determine our best ball striking option from the tee box. Six of the top 10 men also found themselves in the top 10 SG:OTT. The same amount we saw on approach. Ball striking really counts at Le Golf National. Do not be surprised if this leaderboard is also littered with the best players in the world. Four of the top 10 were inside the top 10 SG:ARG, and SG:Putt. If we had a ton of historical data on the women's side, it would show that putting held the least influence over podium positions. Five of the top 8 guys were outside the top 25 in putting including Scottie. We are going to concentrate on the full swing form. I will include putts per GIR and scoring, but overall the lean(s) comes more on the ball striking side. One fifth of the field made over 20 sub-par scores. The par 5s ranked as three of the four easiest holes on the course. Players who can score on the 5s will give themselves a small advantage. Those who can complement par 5 scoring with elite par 4 play are the podium possibilities. Three of the par 4s ranked in the four toughest holes (15, 17, 18). Conversely, three of them ranked easiest just after the par 5s. Score on both tests and you will win a medal. Par 4 scoring was a huge opportunity last week and one all medal winners took great advantage of. I loved the golf last week and expect a similar show on Saturday. Let's use our industry leading LPGA acumen to dial in another winner. The overall card is tight because the odds are short in this limited field. Let's attack this week just like the players favoring quality over quantity. Outright winners - Olympics
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