So long Sony, and Hawaii

Congratulations to all of the Chris Gotterup backers (+5000), the New Jersey native's final round 64 was pretty stout. Mr. Gotterup is starting to get a reputation for playing well when it counts. Only Scottie Scheffler had a lower final round scoring average on the PGA TOUR in 2025. That is an impressive company, Chris is keeping. In 18 final rounds last year, Gotterup's scoring average was 68.22. The TOUR average on Sunday is 70.18! It's no surprise Chris has now won in three consecutive seasons. Not many players can claim that on their resume before the age of 26 and since 2024.

Sunday's action at the Sony Open concluded one of the longest-running partnerships on the PGA TOUR. If the rumors are true, and in golf, they usually are coming out of Ponte Vedra Beach, the 2027 schedule is no longer going to include those perfect settings in the Pacific Ocean. Coincidentally, it is also the final year of Sony's sponsor agreement with the TOUR. Wai'alae Country Club has provided us with some great memories over the years, but I doubt anyone really ever witnesses them live. Final round coverage on Sunday started at 7:00 pm ET, right in the middle of the Bears-Rams game. Could the guys have played earlier? Not much earlier, with a five-hour time difference on the East Coast. Change is a scary word, but in this case, I think it is necessary. Modern sports media pulls us all in a million directions; the time has come for the PGA TOUR to take a stand for its part of the sports calendar. As of now, it sounds like that stand will take place on the mainland!

The American Express starts in...

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Three of a kind?

We start the multi-course chaos of the PGA TOUR schedule. Three of the next four tournament venues utilize multiple courses. The first stop is the Palm Desert in California, and The American Express. The AMEX is a 54-hole cut event where the top 65 and ties are cut after Saturday. The reason? Each player has to play three different courses: the Pete Dye Stadium Course, Jack Nicklaus Tournament Course, and La Quinta Country Club. The average cutline over the last five years is seven under par. Makes sense for a Saturday cut, but it also succinctly shows the real key in Palm Springs, scoring. The average winning score for the AMEX is 25 under par over that same time period. The winners averaged 28 sub-par scores on their way to victory. As we build out a blueprint for the winner, the priority is creating an obscene number of birdie chances, like 30+ of them!

Thirty birdies are 40% of the holes you play! We are starting the weekly narrative with all of this scoring information because the winners of this desert classic all have one thing in common: sub-par scoring potential. Vegas knows, they have the final score over/under set at 26.5 under par! All three of these courses are just pure entertainment. Pundits will complain about the lack of ShotLink data, but who cares? We never have consistent player analytics on the LPGA tour, and continue to win. Chris Gotterup was a 50-1 winner last week. The average pre-tournament winner's odds over the last decade at the AMEX is +15400! The four-day lottery is in full effect this week in Southern California, and RTL has every intention of hitting it.

The Palm Springs forecast is literally perfect for golf. Temperatures range from the high 40s at night to the low 70s during the afternoon. With three courses, there are no six AM tee times, 52 players a day on each course (with amateurs) until we reach the final round. There's very little wind in the forecast and even less rain. As always, use the real-time weather links we provide. The wind kicked up last weekend at Waialae CC, and our new real-time wind link was a wonderful asset for winning weekend H2H matchups. LaQuinta CC, the Nicklaus Course, and the Pete Dye Stadium Course are all a par 72 layout with four par 3s and 5s, and 10 par 4s. Across all three courses, the average par 3 is 190 yards long, the average par 4 is 418 yards long, and the average par 5 is 549 yards long. The Stadium Course is the longest at 7,210, and is newly renovated. Closed in May of 2024, the club did a complete restoration of the old Pete Dye design (1986). Greens were expanded back to their original size, bunkers were redone, and a couple of tees were added.

Believe it or not, the changes did slow these guys down. The Stadium Course played approximately 0.6 strokes under par for the 2025 edition. Considering the other two courses play 3+ strokes under par, that's a big difference when you find yourself competing on Dye's design. Brand new green surfaces are always rock hard, and that created several situations from the rough (and even the fairway) where players could not control spin and make the ball stop. Renovations don't always accomplish their goal, but in this case, the Stadium Course started giving these guys something to think about; rather than just point and shoot. That being said, 42 of the 54 holes have a birdie rate of 15% or higher. We will see a winning score in the mid-20s and a cutline around eight under par. Fifteen under par one year ago didn't even get you on the first page of the leaderboard (T21).

The field is fantastic. Alongside Scottie Scheffler, we have five of the top 10, 11 of the top 25, and 27 of the top 50 in the OWGR competing. When I opened the outright board on Monday morning and saw Scheffler at +260, I knew the TOUR is really back. The Sony Open was a nice warmup, but now the world's number one is in the field. How should we handle him, and who will win? Scroll down below.

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How to win?

When Scottie Scheffler is in the field, the first outright decision we must make is the most important. Should we bet the market with or without the world's number one player? We are betting the full market, and here's why. Scheffler's advantage is the greatest when the test is the toughest. The three courses in play for the AMEX do not separate solely upon ball striking, rough, wind, etc. In the words of Jon Rahm, it is a "#!@*" putting contest, and he's not wrong. If Scheffler can improve anywhere, it is with the flatstick. While Scottie has been on this nuclear run, that is the only aspect of his game we can question. It's a stretch, but we are not trying to bet Ben Griffin at 15-1 without Scheffler. Variance is also our friend; 156 players, three courses, amateurs playing, it all adds up. This is also Scheffler's first start of the season, while a majority of our outrights competed last week at Wai'alae.

Nine of the last 10 AMEX winners played in Hawaii before they won. The lone outlier is Nick Dunlap, and he did something that had not been done in 33 years! It sounds crazy, and it probably is, but we are going against Scottie. One of the few events where Scheffler has not finished inside the top 10 in the last three years, let's enlist a bunch of birdie machines against him who are also great at the following keys.

• Getting to 25+ under par implies great putting. Even Scottie Scheffler doesn't hit all of his approaches to five feet. They are eight to 12 feet away! We've switched to an overseeded Poa grass. Bermudagrass is gone for a couple of weeks, and here comes a common strain of Poa. Much smoother in the Palm Desert, this variety of grass still has its favorites. Seven of the last 10 winners have gained three strokes or more on the greens. Considering how flat these surfaces are, three strokes is a significant gain. Players statistically make putts here. Keep in mind, we only have Shotlink data from the Stadium Course, but the scoring averages tell the same story at the other two venues.
• One-third of your approach shots are coming in from under 150 yards. That's a pitching wedge or less for 70% of the field. The three-course rotation is a dart-throwing contest from close range. Winners separate from the pack by generating a ton of birdie chances inside 20'. What was even more interesting was the amount of separation the leaders gained from under 100 yards. Controlling spin and trajectory takes great skill at any range, and with so many forced strategic layups off the tee on these par 5s, the impact of wedge play is even more compounded.
• Par 3s generally do not allow players to differentiate themselves. The 3s at the AMEX tell a different story. Six of the 12 par 3s are over 200 yards, and many of them are surrounded by penalty areas. The last five winners have gained an average of four strokes playing the 3s. Sepp Straka (2025 winner) was seven under par on the 3s last year! If you're looking to separate yourself even more, pay attention to the par 4s. The last 10 winners have gained an average of eight strokes on the field across the 30 par 4s. These three courses give you a ton of medium and short 4s to score on. Whether you approach from the fairway or dormant rough, it really doesn’t matter. No tournament has enough par 5s for these guys to distance themselves from the pack. Dunlap was 11 under on the 4s in 2024. Nick also annihilated the par 5s, but scoring on all those 4s is why he finished at 29 under par.
• When it comes to scoring, tracking players with a strong birdie-to-bogey ratio is very important. It's extremely tough to get to 25 under par if you take any steps backward on the scorecard. Consistent birdie makers who average 4.5 sub-par scores per round and can save par when they make a small mistake are very valuable in DFS and the outright market. These are not "bogey avoidance" courses, but when a simple up and down presents itself for par, keep the round going. Twenty-four under par is six under par per round. To accomplish that over 72-holes, don't just look for the best scorers, sort by the scoring ratio. That will make a big difference in a shootout like this.

Yes, I'm ignoring the elephant in the room. Scheffler stormed the field at TPC Craig Ranch last year and won by eight strokes. It can happen again. Instead of focusing on his skill(s), I'm relying on the modern floor of an elite PGA TOUR player. These guys are all exceptional wedge players. Some are better than Scottie. Many have an edge with the flatstick as well. There will be many weeks where Scottie catches more of our attention. For the American Express, I'm focused on these six names. Each is excellent at short-range approach play and putting. Many of them led the field in Hawaii T2G. Together, they give us a great chance to challenge the best player in the world, and by Sunday, find themselves ahead of him.

Outright Winners - The American Express

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