Palm Reading βπ»
Funny gamePALM BEACH GARDENS, FL I didn't have Brian Campbell on my bingo card. I doubt anyone outside of family and close friends did either. Campbell's conquest of VidantaWorld is why I believe in a balanced card and live betting. I am often asked, "Why the different bets throughout the week?" The simple answer is picking outrights is really hard. Imagine having a Potgieter ticket. That winner bet was worth as much as Aaron Rai or a player who didn't even make the cut; not mentioning names Beau Hossler. In the end, it's a wonderful story and it keeps the team at RTL sharp. Wildcard winners force us to analyze every aspect of an event to find the longshot winners. As a self-proclaimed GOLF FANATIC, Mr. Campbell your challenge is accepted. Let's get into the Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches. "Florida golf"Many of us have been waiting for the Florida swing. Is it familiarity, Bermudagrass, the eastern time zone, or proximity to golf's biggest events on the horizon? For RTL it is all of the above! PGA National's Champion Course needs little introduction. Perennially one of the toughest tests on TOUR, outside of a major championship, one would think the past champions list mirrors more of a "major" look. Over the last decade, the average winner's pre-tournament odds are +10300 (103-1). Every tournament presents something unexpected, and in my mind, this is the unique characteristic of this tournament. With an average winning score of 10 under par in those same years, one would imagine elite players always contending. Truth is, we have not had a winner under +3000 in seven years. I attribute that to the volatile nature of this golf course. Much like TPC Twin Cities, there is a ton of trouble out here off the tee (and on approach). Comp course alert, don't be surprised if Bermuda specialists who also play well in Minnesota are effective. Facing a chance for double bogey on more than half your swings, creates crazy scoring situations! PGA TOUR players are very good at managing their games, but golf is really hard. Make one miss and you're outside the top 10, let alone winning. I asked Austin Eckroat during his press conference, "How did you win here and a place like el Diamante in Mexico?" His answer was simple, some weeks you have IT. When you do, you go for it. We received a little rain on Monday afternoon and into the evening. Certainly, enough to dampen the surfaces significantly, but not enough to last past Thursday. Rain fell last week in Palm Beach Gardens as well, but the amount they keep getting once a week is just enough to keep the course in elite condition. As I walk around, this place is healthy from an agronomy perspective. The golf course will be a story this week, but it won't be because of the condition. The PGA TOUR has set up a tough and fair test. Speaking of tough, all of the "Bear Trap" talk can go overboard. Especially when you consider how the three-hole trap on the front nine can kill your score. Holes 5, 6, and 7 you face a similar 3-4-3 combo just as you see on 15, 16, and 17. Not nearly as flashy, the front three play 0.65 strokes over par. That's historically 0.05 strokes tougher than the Bear Trap. The forecast calls for a slight breeze and temperatures rising into the low 80s. We should have perfect golf weather if the forecast holds up. The cutline dropped below par for the first time in 18 years. Some say the scorecard is softer with the tenth hole as a par 5, but 15 holes with water in play and 60 bunkers also create a championship challenge of their own. The par 71 scorecard stretches 7,147 yards. That's 20 yards longer than last year as 20 yards have been added to the tenth. The average green size is 7,000 sq/ft and they are all covered in beautiful Bermudagrass, or that's at least what I tell myself when I putt on Bermuda. This grainy weed can give you fits and the specific reason why the "Florida guys" are about to come to the forefront. Cognizant Classic starts in...All 144 players are vying for the top 65 and ties to play the weekend. The purse is up a little at $9.2 million and $1.66 million for first place. We have only seen two repeat winners in the last 40 years (Harrington, Calcavecchia). Please don't tie your horse too tightly to the recent past champions plaque. As I mentioned earlier, it is quite an eclectic crew. Vegas has set the winning score over/under at 15.5 under par. That number seems low, but when you add the extra par 5, the proposed middle point makes perfect sense. If the wind forecast remains the same, I think the winning score goes pretty low. Eckroat won a year ago at 17 under par and I'm leaning toward a similar score in 2025. Sixteen of the top 50 in the OWGR are on property. Many of those competitors live in town. Unfortunately, it doesn't seem as if TGL has helped increase the elite status of this field. It has helped RTL, having two tours that we cover in one place limits the frequent flyer miles for the next couple of days. The late addition of Jordan Spieth against some of the TOUR's up and coming stars is a fun side-plot. Let's see how Spieth's new wrist competes against the next generation of elite ball strikers. Eclectic crewWatching an event like the Cognizant Classic can be misleading. Television coverage would lead you to believe that playing PGA National aggressively will lead to the weekend off. The more I watch TV (when I am home), the more I turn off the volume. Trust your eyes and really watch players attack the Bear Trap and more. Austin Eckroat said it directly in his press conference, "I knew my game fit here, so I was very confident. Most guys shy away from trying the hit the sixth fairway for example. I hit driver and made a couple birdies on that hole." That's very telling and goes to show, even the announcers explain the situation through their own personal golf lens. With that in mind, I want supreme scorers who are currently playing with some swagger. Guys who have some stones and aren't going to shy away from a full rip at the seventeenth green on Sunday afternoon. It sounds like I'm targeting a trending Daniel Berger, but I believe that one is a trap. If all you see are the top 5s, then you forget how Berger gave this event away. That level of baggage is no good. Not to mention, in 21 Florida starts, Daniel has eight missed cuts and just five top 10s. He, like Keith Mitchell, are always considered "killers" on this course, but I'm still looking elsewhere. The approach game should be really sharp from 125-200 yards. I realize that's a wide range, but we're looking to beat 143 guys. Winners gain here on approach more than double any other category. With the weather system I have witnessed all week, the green surfaces should be receptive. Another factor favoring the best ball strikers off the fairway is the overseed. The team at PGA National overseeded everywhere and not just the rough. That's going to have the fairways, chipping areas, and tees play less like Bermudagrass. Bermudagrass can create really tight surfaces, place a little space under that ball with Ryegrass and the best ball strikers will be really dangerous. I like great drivers next. Sepp, Shane, Keith, Russell, Austin, etc... Confident, aggressive play off the tee is an advantage on the Champion Course. The five most recent winners gained an average of three strokes on the field OTT. Trouble lurks everywhere off the tee. Fifteen holes have water in play and getting the ball deep down the fairway is step one for success. I'm even stressing the tee ball on the par 3s. For the second week in a row, par 3 scoring machines have the ability to separate. Take those guys again and put them all over your card and throughout your DFS lineups. Eleven medium length par 4s are also a great scoring category to favor. This is a par 4 aficionado's playground. Remove that fourth par 5 and this skill sets you apart even further. Florida 4s are always a challenge when you consider 90% of them have water, sand, or a combination of both. While in Florida, we need Bermudagrass putters. I looked through the best performers on all four FedEx Cup season Florida venues. Some guys are just good down here and we need to switch our thinking from west coast to southeast and play them. Everyone must score on the 5s, as the winners average 19 birdie or better scores and the remaining holes are just plain hard. The par range averages match up. Quick reminder, these are the holes where the leaders make the largest gains on the field.
Get ready for some crazy scoring. We are used to waking up and waiting for west coast golf to begin. Transitioning to getting up with the lead or much worse is no more evident than an alarm clock for PGA National. Get ready for a wild ride, welcome to the Florida swing. The Masters is just 43 days away. It's go time on the PGA TOUR and our card is loaded with runners in Palm Beach Gardens. Outright Winners - Cognizant Classicβ Two of threeAngel Yin set a new LPGA scoring record in Thailand last week. Her closing holes were impressive as she birdied four of her last six to finish 28 under par. That mark established a new tournament scoring record. Believe it or not, Yin was still three shots behind the all-time tournament scoring record of 31 under par set by Sei Young Kim at the 2018 Thornberry Classic! Speaking of special, this week marks βAsiaβs Major.β The HSBC Womenβs Championship is an elite event featuring nine of the top 10 and 22 of the top 30 in the Rolex World Rankings. This 72-hole, no-cut event features four rounds for $2.4 million; $360,000 for first place. The fourth event of the 2025 season starts on WEDNESDAY NIGHT! HSBC Women's ThailandDeja vΓΊWe return to the Sentosa Golf Club and specifically the Tanjong Course. The host venue for this event since 2017, the tournament has been plagued by wet weather each of the last three years. Well, that trend is going to continue. The forecast always jumps to the forefront during this competition so here it is. The good news, it will be warm for the women. Temperatures are going to rest in the mid-80's and the wind will be marginally calm at 10-12mph coming out of the northeast. Over one inch of rain (1.31") is coming across all four rounds. That pales in comparison to rain we have seen here in recent years, but the moral of this story is bring your umbrella. The Sentosa Golf Club is located on the Sentosa Island off the southern coast of Singapore. With wet weather predicted, the humidity along with the forecast will make this course into one big dart board along the coast. The Tanjong Course has plenty of obstacles besides the weather, so as we handicap the field here's a couple more details to digest.
Closing this tournament will take some serious ball striking. The Tanjong Course has large greens (10,600 sq/ft on average), but hitting those closing holes with the tournament on the line will take some talent. Factor in the forecast for "wet grips" and your skill set will be very specific. We'll get into more of this in the outrights section, but overall, we can start to see the storyline developing in Singapore. I mention this every HSBC preview, but this course was designed with the Australian sand-belt courses in mind. After watching the wet weather every year, one can see why. This place needs to drain! Conquering the ground game might be more important than the aerial attack. Trajectory control, patience and above all else the ability to score around the green will matter. The average winning score since 2017 on the Tanjong Course is 16 under par. Getting there requires a positive balance of scrambling skill and elite ball striking. Each of the last seven winners of Asia's Major (HSBC) have been major champions. With another stacked odds board at the top, and the LPGA hosting its fourth event of the season, recent form is contending characteristic number one. I have some interesting insights to help earn us our first win of the year on this circuit. Watching the first three events, there are some definite trending players Iβm paying attention to. Major skillsWhen you refer to the event as βAsiaβs Major,β you better bring a decent venue. The Tanjong Course is a par 72 layout covering 6,774 yards. That would be a long course for the LPGA anywhere, but at sea level in southeast Asia under wet conditions, we are asking for ball speed from the best women in the world. Looking through the recent leaderboards, length (oddly enough) has played a smaller role than putting and approach. In fact, the approach play impact is about 2.5 times more than off the tee. Again, with wet conditions, radar like irons will ultimately be the most influential skill toward winning. Iβm also looking past the driver and thinking about four straight events on Bermudagrass. Angel Yin ran away last week converting 30 sub-par scores with her flatstick. From Floridaβs grainy grass to Thailand and now Singapore, conquering the greens is a trend on tour we all should be paying attention to. When it comes to determining our team of putters for the HSBC, Iβm looking at strokes gained on the greens, putts per GIR, and strokes gained scoring. Based upon the average winning score, youβll need to convert birdie chances at Sentosa. A majority of the approach shots fall between 125-175 yards. The longer iron shots come on a couple par 4s, and the par 3s. Scoring on both of those par sets is key and has proven to help you contend across the recent top 10s. Players who can survive these 3s have a definite advantage. All four of the 3s rest inside the top 10 toughest holes on the course. These greens are huge. If you are watching the coverage overnight, you will definitely notice the difference between a normal sized green and these pronounced putting surfaces. As such, I combined approach proximity to strokes gained approach. Since we are in the fourth event, I looked at the best proximity players from 2024 as well. A large diet of 50+ foot putts on grainy Bermudagrass in the rain is NOT a recipe for success. Our outrights will knock it close this week. The Australian sand-belt courses feature very tight lies around the green and favor great short game players. I believe thatβs why you see so many major champions win this event. Winning a major title always takes a healthy balance of birdie scoring and par saving. Birdie or better percentage, birdie to bogy ratio, scrambling, and strokes gained around the green are the secret sauce in Singapore. Most pundits point out the length at Sentosa Golf Club and they donβt see how short game is a significant key. Hannah Green is our defending champion, and it just so happens... she is from Australia! Predicting winners is not that simple, but every tournament winner makes sense. There are 10 favorites on the betting board under +2000 (20-1). How can you separate them? Jeeno Thitikul is on another level and her odds reflect that, but the other nine are between +1200-1900. I'm leaning on the best players who manage a savvy short game. The Tanjong Course is very difficult around the green. Players who can gain any strokes scrambling soar to the top of the headboard. The last two top 10s were successful 70% of the time around the green. That's an incredible closing rate. Sleep tight Sunday night, because when you wake up Sunday morning, that will ultimately be the reason why we WIN. Outright winners - HSBC Women's World Championship
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