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SOUTHAMPTON, NY

For the second year in a row, we travel from Canada's national championship to ours. As we tuned in to TPC Toronto, I kept wondering if this is a reasonable preview for Shinnecock Hills Golf Club? There was wind. Driving the golf ball in play has value, and players were tested on various lengths of approach shots. On paper, Bud Cauley's win on the surface seems relevant as we begin to break down the field of 156 players for the 126th United States Open Championship.
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Looks can be deceiving... The most important lesson we can learn from last week is that 64 players finished the week under par in Canada. That's not going to happen this week. Although it is nice to see your favorite player(s) score and contend, don't get misguided. In 2018, every player that made the cut had at least 10 bogeys (or worse) for the week. When we get to the outright discussion, this isn't just bogey avoidance; it is a mindset. When you compare Shinnecock Hills champions Raymond Floyd (1986), Corey Pavin (1995), Retief Goosen (2004), and Brooks Koepka (2018), what is their through-line? Four guys with incredible grit. Bogey avoidance defiance is in their blood.
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The field of 156 gets cut down to the low 60 players (and ties) after 36 holes. The purse will be announced after the tournament starts. The top 47 players and 77 of the top 100 in the OWGR are competing. It's a major championship, and the field reflects it. No tournament is going to be a perfect preview for our national championship. There are elements of the Canadian Open we can use, but the mental approach it takes to be successful is special this week. There's golf course hard like Oakmont, and then there's Shinnecock Hills. The golf alone would be tough enough without the elements. If you love watching players struggle and have one ultimately succeed, then this week is especially suited for you.

The US Open starts in...

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Trade parade

The western approach to Shinnecock Hills Golf Club takes you down a two lane highway. Each morning as the island labor heads east, a phenomenon known as the "trade parade" takes place. It's pretty ridiculous. Media members staying five or six miles west of the golf course are commuting for over an hour. Why present this story? The east end of Long Island is home to some of the wealthiest residents in the country. In the 150+ years they have been traveling down that two lane highway they have never updated it and made it wider. That mentality, is the same manner of thinking that has preserved Shinnecock Hills Golf Club. Established in 1891, and one of the original five courses recognized by the USGA, SHGC hosted it's first of five previous US Opens in 1896! Four more in the past 40 years, players will be tested by a par 70 scorecard measuring 7,4,40 yards. William Flynn designed the course we see today in 1931.

The last 12 years of my on course professional career, I worked at a William Flynn designed golf course in Princeton, New Jersey called Springdale Golf Club. I attended both US Opens this century at SHGC (2004, 2018). There's an incredible compilation book, more like a manuscript, of Flynn's work entitled the Nature Faker. I'm not sure who gave William the name, but it describes his DNA when it comes to golf course design. Flynn was an athlete and he believed golf should be as much of a mental test as it is a physical one. You can see it clearly on display at Shinnecock Hills. It starts with the name. The twelfth tee box is 70' above sea level. The sixth hole sits 6' above the water table. Walking, climbing, fighting the wind, watching your step, all play a role in wearing you out across 18 holes of this fescue landscape. I'm actually not surte if that's more of the mental or physical part of the examination? Flynn uses doglegs like no other architecture maven.

You will hear an endless number of pundits barking about wide fairways across all mainstream media channels this week. Newsflash, they aren't. Flynn's use of width and angles is only second in the world is only second in the world to the work Alistair MacKenzie did at Augusta National. Look at the overheads. Challenge the more difficult side of the dogleg, and you get a more favorable approach angle to the green. Go the safe route, and your iron shot difficulty is increased. Throw in a minimum 20+ mph cross wind and 40 yards wide is cut in half (or more) quite quickly. That's what you want to look for this week. Players who understand Flynn's philosophy and who don't try to over power it. There are 18 round holes out here, and a square peg does not fit in any of them.

Will there be an AM/PM wave advantage based upon the wind forecast? That answer and the rest of my on-site notebook are listed below.

• We can start with the wave advantage question. If the wind forecast for Thursday afternoon holds up, AM/PM will have a wave advantage. When it comes to the favorites and outrights, I'm not as concerned based upon their talent floor. When you start getting into the middle and longer odds players, leaning your lineups in this direction would be a mistake. Keep the card slightly diversified, but the vast majority of cut makers are going to come out of that early wave on Thursday. The course is just too hard to make up strokes on the field.
• The USGA's plan is to let the course become more and more firm over the four tournament rounds. What we see on Thursday will change by Sunday afternoon. What does that mean? The USGA has 156 players who have to complete 36 holes on Thursday and Friday. To maintain pace of play, you'll see more conservative hole locations, and yardage choices. Players will see more bounce on the greens over the weekend. Plan for those conditions when you make your decisions.
• The green surrounds are softer than the green surfaces. It's a slight difference, but when it comes to playing a variety of short game shots, it makes it far more difficult on a course where you want to keep the ball on the ground.
• Driver usage is slightly higher than what we saw during the tournament in 2018. These are practice round observations, so that strategy can change come tournament play, but this falls in line with the mentality of a modern player. When possible, they are going to send it.
• If a drive misses the fairway in the first cut bordering the fairway, they have less than a 10 % chance of getting lucks and having a reasonable lie. If it goes into the fescue, those luck chances go up (10-20%), but the average fescue (long grass) lie is far worse than the average first cut lie.
• The club waters many of the playing surfaces at 2:00pm everyday. If we see the USGA implement watering practices to preserve the competitive integrity of the event, don't be surprised. From an agronomy perspective, this place is always on the edge.

The short game practice facilities are busier than usual. Players have been out on the course, and they see the challenge that lies ahead. Nine-hole practice rounds are taking 3+ hours. Each group spends at least 10 minutes on every green, inspecting the landscape and trying all sorts of shots. I'll close the course preview with those two observations. There's no doubt amongst the 156 players in the field that a variety of around-the-green shots will be needed to contend in this championship.

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How to win?

I've said it on the Golf Channel, and I'm writing it down here: Shinnecock Hills is not going to play as a long golf course. One month ago, the players and pundits all led us to believe that Aronimink GC was a short course. SHGC is only 50 yards longer on the scorecard! Are the par 4s a little longer at Shinnecock Hills? Yes. But a downwind 450-yard par 4 will be a 3-wood, wedge. Into the wind, the holes will play much longer, but the same was true at Donald's design down in Philadelphia. Look at the past leaderboards; they are littered with average-length hyper-accurate players. When Brooks won in 2018, he used a driver 64% of the time. Koepka turned himself into a positional player! When picking outrights, do not be fooled by the length narrative. Players who excel at venues like Harbour Town, TPC Sawgrass, etc., will find their way into contention.
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Ball flight matters this week. We are looking for guys that naturally hit the ball low. Your PGA Champion, Aaron Rai, is near the top of that list. Of the favorites, Chris Gotterup, Russell Henley, and Matt Fitzpatrick all keep it controlled. This is one of those 72-hole edges. Each shot, every hole, day by day, the low-ball hitters face less trellis in a round at SHGC. Will the entire card be all of this trajectory type? No. It's always great to diversify, but be sure to keep this in mind when it comes to tier contests and drafting lineups. The ability to control trajectory as a natural part of your routine swing dynamic is important. Those who are manipulating their usual ball flight give me concern over four rounds in this wind.
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Along those lines, the ability to strike it solid off tight lies, from fairway to green, is extremely important. The opposite of the Zoysia phenomenon, balls will lay right against the ground. Under those conditions, only the best ball strikers keep their control. Who are they? Most Bermuda grass fairways are mown very close, so guys who excel under those conditions, I would keep an eye on. One of the reasons SHGC is a complete test is that players will face this micro-lie challenge on shots from the fairway and around the green. Trajectory and spin control with your iron game is the ultimate skill this week. Next on the list is short game ability. I say “ability" because Shinnecock Hills will cause you to hit more than one style of around the green shot. If you are into the wind, you may try to hit it high. Downwind, players will use the ground more. A lazy chop from deep rough will not cut it. Major championship short game specialists are preferred at SHGC.
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Does Shinnecock reward good putters? Augusta National and Aronimink are two courses where an average putter can compete with a great flatstick aficionado. Will SHGC follow that trend? The four modern US Open leaderboards from Shinnecock Hills lean toward favoring better putters. Considering the forecast and conditions, it makes sense to go with the above-average blade users. Players will have a tough time stopping downhill, downwind putts. The more approach putts that roll out to four, five, and six feet past the hole increases at a venue like Shinnecock Hills. Filtering for make percentage from 10' or less, 5' or less is where I would start. The winner this week may not convert every birdie chance, but if you can make over 90% of your putts from 8' and in, that's a stat for Shinnecock success.
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As a par 70, I'm going to lean on par 4 scoring. Flynn's use of doglegs and elevation adds an extra layer of difficulty to the design of each four-shot hole. Since we can't quantify strokes gained or patience, I'll call it Bogey Avoidance. The resolve to save every stroke possible over 72 holes is a separating skill. You would think all professional golfers try to save shots, but just as with any other attribute, some are better than others. I won't separate approach play into ranges mainly because with the wind, who knows how many shots will be played in accordance with the official scorecard. Scrambling is important as it combines both short game disciplines, wedgework, and the putter. The last factor is US Open success. Check the 2018 leaderboard for starters. The US Open style of play has always defined certain players. Guys that cannot shoot 20 under par, but can handle tournaments where par has value. A few of those names will pop up again.
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Two major championships in the Northeast is a treat. I'm excited for the week ahead and the variety of conditions we may see. It won't be perfect, and that's the best part. Shinnecock Hills is an insane marriage between Mother Nature and landscape. I'm confident with my on-site observations that we have the course dialed in. Now let's just sit back and enjoy the entertainment. With all due respect to The Masters, this should be the best show of the year!

Outright Winners - US Open

LPGA

Scheduling?

The LPGA threw their annual "Zurich Classic" style team event against the RBC Canadian Open last week. Back to a full field of 144 players in Belmont, Michigan for the Meijer LPGA Classic for Simply Give, the top 65 and ties will play the weekend for $3.25 million. We have 10 of the top 25, and 23 of the top 50 players in the Rolex World Rankings in the field. Not bad for a week before the next major championship. Another reason why the schedule makes little sense. A sweet $487,500 for first place, why not run the less attended (and watched) Dow Championship against the men's major championship? Not to mention the week of rest you can offer to the world's best women before the KPMG Women's PGA Championship.
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I fully realize schedule building is a complicated process involving global travel, sponsors, and venue ability. Similar to Brian Rolapp, Craig Keesler inherited this schedule. One can hope, Kessler is an avid reader of RTL and changes are already in the works for 2027! Enough is enough, we have Shinnecock on the calendar. Let's jump to the course preview and card.

Back to Blythefield

Blythefield Country Club is one of the more unique layouts on the LPGA schedule. A par 72 scorecard, BCC has five par 3s, eight par 4s, and five par 5s. A quick tangent, it always amazes me that more courses don't design more creative scorecards. Do we need another par 72 with four 3s/5s and ten par 4s? I love the creativity of this layout for a couple of reasons. The scorecard is one, but the terrain in combination with the five 3s and 5s really fits. That same terrain allows for some very difficult green complexes. BCC's greens are an average of 4,500 sq/ft. Those are some small targets across this hilly, tree-lined terrain near Grand Rapids, Michigan. Covered in a beautiful Bentgrass/Poa mix, those who can roll the rock have proven sub-par scores can be made. The average winning score of this event over the first 11 years is 18.6 under par. Fun design and four out of 11 Meijers have ended in a playoff due to fun scoring. Please LPGA, give this event a better home on the calendar!

Healthy rough, rain, and wind. If you are building a betting card for this event, it better include some serious ball strikers. The course covers 6,611 yards; the eighth hole was lengthened in 2024. That sounds long, but Blythefield is the third shortest course these women have seen on tour in 2026. Five of the eight par 4s measure over 400 yards, and the par 3 thirteenth is 234 on the card. That being said, the remaining 12 holes are quite gettable for the best scorers in this field. If you have played Blythefield, please note the LPGA uses a different routing for the tournament. The players start on holes eight and nine and then one through five, finishing the front nine with seventeen and eighteen. The back nine starts with 10 through 16 and completes the round with six and seven. Seven is a reachable par 5, but also away from the clubhouse. I'm not sure why the LPGA switches it every year, but they have done it for some time.

How to win?

A vast majority of weeks, par 4s dominate tournament scoring. A course with 12 par 4s accounts for two-thirds of the holes each competitor plays. Blythefield CC flips the script, and I absolutely love it. Combine the 3s and 5s, and you now account for 56% of scoring, and the 4s get reduced to 32%. That's a significant switch and one that allows for different players to climb the leaderboard. The historical data tells us those par 5s take center stage for separating yourself from the field. The average winning score is nearly 19 under par, and with those long par 4s, this is the place to take advantage. Par 5 scoring on the PGA TOUR means ball speed, but most women on the LPGA cannot reach par 5s in two. They need to hit the fairway off the tee to ensure they have a great chance to use a wedge for their third shot. BCC is the perfect course for Total Driving leaders. The straight combination of length and accuracy.
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Blythefield CC is built across a Michigan hillside. As the course weaves its way through the tree-lined fairways, players are constantly hitting golf shots from different angles and heights. The best T2G players have an advantage here. Look at the past champions list! Lilia Vu was ranked second in the world last year when she won. Lexi Thompson was also in that playoff. Thompson is one of the best LPGA players of the last decade. Inside the tree line, these fairways are framed by four-inch Kentucky Bluegrass rough. The same stuff we see at Muirfield Village Golf Club and so many other courses up north. We know from the weather forecast that it has been (and will get) watered. Nine of the 11 Meijer winners are major champions. Approach will play a lead role with five par 3s. That's five iron shots each day where you know the yardage ahead of time AND you get a level lie! Over the course of 20 par 3s, that's an advantage for the best proximity players.
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​With the great course conditions, there's a good chance our winner will get to 20 under par. It has happened four times in the last 7 Meijer tournaments. When you must gain with sub-par scores, I always combine rounds in the 60s with Scoring Average. Blythefield can trip you up and with the juicy rough, so a positive birdie-to-bogey ratio is another factor to consider along with Bogey Avoidance. Not as much a factor as it will be for the men, our ladies in Michigan must be able to keep their rounds going. Around the green play from dense rough will be needed. The greens are small, the second smallest these women will see all year. The highest ranked approach player in the field is Lauren Coughlin (seventh on tour). Even Lauren is going to miss a bunch of greens and her short game will be needed. The favorite, Jeeno Thitikul, is ranked 42nd on tour for approach. Imagine how many chips and pitches the second ranked woman in the world will hit!
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Those scoring stats are fueled by the flatstick. Good to very good putters can make putts on these greens. Heck, hit the green and you have a sub-25' birdie putt! The surfaces are that northern Bentgrass-Poa mix so they are rolling perfectly in the Michigan climate. Another factor that gives better putters an advantage is their ability to read greens correctly. With all of the terrain changes across this layout, reading greens is difficult in spots. Of the four main strokes gained categories, putting was the second most correlated to success after driving. When you look at the layout, you start to see these little edges develop. Take them into account and the outright card becomes very clear. Riviera measured driving and putting quite well. Toss in above average approach play and that leaderboard will give us some very good clues. The last factor I used a baseline was SG: T2G. An excellent measure to confirm our initial leans.
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The Meijer will be awesome. I know we all will be watching Shinnecock Hills, but if 100+ hours of Golf Channel, NBC, and USA Sports coverage is not enough, change the channel. The women in Michigan are set for another made-for-TV week at the Meijer in Michigan!

Outright Winners - Meijer LPGA Classic

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