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The drama of professional golf moves back to the west coast. Early 80s television used to connect Los Angeles and Puerta Vallarta with a weekly cruise along the coast in the Pacific Princess. The two cities are joined again as the PGA TOUR's next stop is the Mexico Open at Vidanta and the LPGA tees it up in LA. Just the second official edition of this open championship on the TOUR, our defending champion is none other than world's #1, Jon Rahm.
Joining Jon Rahm is Tony Finau. They are the only two ranked below 50+ in the OWGR. The rest of the 144-player field are a who's who of betting favorites while the "designated" take the week off. The top 65 and ties will play the weekend and compete for the $7.7 million dollar purse ($1.386 million for first).
Our host venue is the Vidanta Vallarta course designed by Greg Norman. One of the longest layouts these men will play on the PGA TOUR, the par 71 scorecard stretches over 7,500 yards.
What sounds like a possible resort birdiefest course at first, held its own in the first year of competition. Rahm won at 17 under par and the cutline was one under par. Jon was the favorite, but the final top 10 had five players with pre-tournament odds of +8000 (80-1) or higher. Strength of field plays a role, but in the end a very specific skill set played out as the most important indicator. More on that in the outrights breakdown.
Those who made the trek south of the border will be rewarded. After three straight weeks of weather challenges, we officially have resort weather. Temperatures will peak every afternoon in the mid 80s. No rain is in the forecast, and you can plan on a decent afternoon breeze everyday around 3pm. Vidanta Vallarta sits about one mile from the Pacific coast. A nice southwest breeze will catch everyone's attention with a PM tee time.
The course presents several headwinds as well. There are more bunkers (106) than trees. Although it is bombs away from the tee box, twelve holes have water in play. Our average green size is 7,000 sq/ft which is very fair considering the number of long approaches. On those greens, we will see seaside Paspalum grass. In fact, the course is covered in it. Not much rough at 1.5", but this resilient strand is very sticky. We'll favor players who have shown previous success. These greens did challenge the field as players made less than the TOUR average for every length putt over five feet.
We won't complain this week about Rahm's low odds or the lack of firepower in the field. Set your course for adventure as there's a good chance one member of this field gets his first PGA TOUR win. That would make two weeks in a row and an exciting lead up to May and our next designated event in Charlotte followed by the PGA Championship in less than a month!
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Mexico Open on TV:
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Length really matters
Vidanta Vallarta has more 200+ yard approach shots than any other venue on the PGA TOUR. It is nearly double the amount of the TOUR average. Over 7,500 yards at sea level, this course plays longer than it looks on the scorecard. Most betting boards feel Rahm is headed toward a fifth win, but closing out another victory will be tough when this venue doesn't require a well-rounded skill set. Let's look at last year's top 10 finishers to figure out who can compete with the world's #1 this week and possibly take him down.
I don't say this often, but leaning on length off the tee and long iron play will get you close this week. Throw in a lukewarm putter and I bet your chances of winning are better than you might imagine. Certainly, better than Jon Rahm's odds!
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Only Hollywood could come up with a name like the JM Eagle LA Championship presented by Plastpro. Just a great reminder how important the Chevron sponsorship really is. To have an enormous company like Chevron supporting the LPGA and creating a world class event like we experienced last week is incredible for women's golf. Much like the sponsors, venues change as well. Even though this is listed as a new event for the LPGA, we have been to the host, Wilshire Country Club before. From 2018 to 2022, WCC and its storied 100+ year history was the venue for the DIO Implant LA Open.
Played just a month ago across town at Palos Verdes Golf Club, the previous editions at Wilshire crowned some serious champions. The average winning score in those four years was 14 under par. Past champions include:
That's a walk of fame list. Nestled in the valley beneath the Hollywood sign and Griffith Observatory, Wilshire was established in 1919. The par 71 layout covers 6,447 yards of varied terrain. This is a ball strikers paradise and unlike last week where everything was oversized, this canvas is tightly wrapped in central Los Angeles. I love this golf course for a couple of reasons. It will test every aspect of each competitor's game. Players are required to keep the ball in play as a lengthy barranca weaves through Wilshire and comes into play on 13 different holes.
Should you stay out of that waterway, good luck avoiding the 125 bunkers on the property. Seventeen of the eighteen holes have greenside and fairway sand to contend with. Small greens with an average size of 5,000 sq/ft are the true character of this century old landscape. Seeded with Poa Annua grass they will test your flatstick. The rest of the fairway and rough is covered in Bermudagrass. Although the Los Angeles area has received record rain in 2023, the Bermuda development has been slow. The rough is listed at 2" for the tournament, but certainly won't be consistent from wall to wall due to the recent weather.
The forecast for this week has temperatures in the high 70s and low 80s. There's no rain in the forecast and winds are scheduled to be light hovering around 6-8 mph. This is a welcome change from last week in Houston where unseasonably cool temperatures and wet weather plagued the season's first major championship. Even with the Chevron just days ago, Los Angeles has attracted a great field.
The field of 144 players will be cut on Friday to the top 65 and ties. The course has shown its teeth as the historic cutline is +2.5. Nasa went nuts on the field last year with four stellar rounds in the 60s and beat the rest by five strokes. This course can create that type of separation if you have one of those weeks. Chances are that the pack of contenders will be tightly grouped and need great ball striking to close it out. Our outrights have been very close since our last win, four events ago. With a great traditional layout, I believe we break through for win #2 for the LPGA this season.
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LA Championship on TV:
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Classic storyline
You can see by the level of past champions from this venue what kind of skill set it takes to win. Los Angeles has some incredible courses and WCC ranks right up there. To successfully navigate WCC and contend come Sunday, I believe the secret is in the greens. Take these four steps toward hitting and putting them, and your pick will be better off.
That's really the rub of Wilshire. A group of players will get to the mid-teens under par. Our outrights will have the ability to make a bunch of birdies to counter the difficulty. They will also be great par 4 players. I keyed on this skill last year and we finished with two outright predictions in the top 3. This course has an extreme quantity of bunkers. I cannot imagine a scenario where you don't find one over four rounds. Survival and scoring from the sand are key. It will either keep a good score going or improve one.
The ladies just finished their first major championship. It was a brutal test of length and long iron skill. Wilshire CC is a more delicate test. Sure, power will serve you well here, but those who always contend on classic courses are the ones I really have my eyes on.
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