No Limit ๐ณ
Something new: TWO & Done!Two weeks, two serious Sunday sweats. When we posted the Monday odds for the Sony Open, your two playoff participants, Nick Taylor and Nico Echavarria were +11000 and +8000 respectively on the starting outright board. If that level of volatility gives you anxiety, then you might want to watch the NFL this weekend. Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to The American Express or as Jon Rahm likes to call it, "Piece of sh-t, f-cking setup putting contest." Considering Jon has won this event twice in the last seven years, I always get a kick out of that viral video quote. A field of 156 players will compete for $8.8M dollars and a first-place check of $1.58M. Yes, all of you One & Done fans, the season has started and we plan to add to the fun. โคต๏ธ Read The Line is hosting a Signature Series TWO & Done contest. There's plenty of season long O&D competitions and we wanted to do something a little more fun (and different!). "It drives me nuts when one player just places in the signature events and wins the season long pool!" a common sentiment we hear. You too? Here's the solution, our series is just the signature events and caters to the sharpest players.
The total purse for this NEW contest is $45,000! It is open to the first 500 entries and $13,500 will be awarded for first place. TO ENTER, along with full details, please use the link below. Keep in mind, the real Signature Season starts in two weeks at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. So click the link and enter today!
Triple playWe start the multi-course chaos of the PGA TOUR schedule. Our trip back to the mainland brings us to the Palm Desert in California. The AMEX is a 54-hole cut event where the top 65 and ties are removed after Saturday. The reason? Each player has to play three different courses. The average cutline over the last decade is seven under par. Makes sense for a Saturday cut, but it also succinctly shows the real key in Palm Springs, scoring. The average winning score for the AMEX is 26 under par over the past five years. The winners average 29 sub-par scores in that period. As we build out a blueprint, the first priority is creating an infinite number of birdie chances; like 40+ of them! Thirty birdies are 40% of the holes you play! I love this scoring fest because I don't have any delusions of grandeur that either of these three courses are anything but pure entertainment. You'll get brutal next week on Torrey South. As for now, let's enjoy another possible 10-man shootout like we saw last week at the Sony. Who can keep up in this field when it comes to sub-par scoring over their last 24 rounds? Here's the top 10 in the field:
The Palm Desert forecast is just about perfect for golf. Temperatures range from the high 40s at night and top off in the low 70s during the afternoon. With three courses, there are no six AM tee times, all of these guys play during the best part(s) of the day. There's very little wind in the forecast and even less rain. As always, use the real-time weather link below. The wind kicked up last weekend at Waialae and our newsletter is a quick resource to check while you are live betting. With so many variables in play, 156 players, and three courses over four days, I'm going to diversify our card. The average winner's pre-tournament odds over the last decade are +22600 (226-1). Seven of the last 10 winners have held odds of +4000 or more prior to the tournament start. The American Express starts in...LaQuinta Country Club, PGA West Nicklaus Course, and the PGA West Stadium course are all a par 72 layout with four par 3s and 5s, and 10 par 4s. The Stadium Course is the longest at 7,210, and newly renovated. Closed in May, the club did a complete restoration of the old Pete Dye design. Greens were expanded back to their original size, bunkers were redone, and a couple of tees were added. It may shrink the scoring average slightly as brand-new greens can be bouncy. Yet with no wind and better overall playing conditions, I think these guys will take it just as deep (if not deeper). To put it all in perspective, 42 of the 54 holes have a birdie rate of 15% or higher. Twenty-five guys (or more) are going to birdie all of those holes. You better pack a hot putter if you're going to the Palm Desert. Nick Dunlap stole the show at 29 under par and became the first amateur to win on the PGA TOUR in over 30 years. I don't think this is a place where you find the flatstick. I'm running with the players who have been hot over the past few events. For further explanation continue reading. Last week, we asked if amateurs like Luke Clanton should receive the prize money they earn on TOUR. A little more than 62% of voters said, "pay the man!" and we agree! Birdie barrageLet's dive right into this. The blueprint for contending at the AMEX starts with incredible wedge play. One-third of your approach shots are coming in from under 150 yards. That's a pitching wedge or less for 75% of the field. The three course rotation out in Palm Springs is a dart throwing contest from close range. Winners separate from the pack by generating a ton of birdie chances inside 25'. What was even more interesting was the amount of separation the leaders gained from 75-100 yards. Controlling spin and trajectory takes great skill at any range, but under these conditions players who can really hit their scoring clubs close climb the scoreboard at the AMEX. Getting to 25+ under par also implies great putting. Even Scottie Scheffler doesn't hit all of his approaches to five feet. We've switched to an overseed Poa grass. Bermudagrass is gone for a couple weeks and here comes the Pacific Poa. Much smoother in the Palm Desert, this variety of grass still has its favorites. Seven of the last 10 winners have gained three strokes or more on the greens. Considering how flat these surfaces are, three strokes is a significant gain. Players statistically make putts here. Keep in mind, we only have Shotlink data from the Stadium Course, but the scoring averages tell the same story at the other two venues. I'm targeting BoB% players without much concern for bogey avoidance. You can find trouble on each of these courses, but no matter what, we need players that average over 4.5 birdies per round. Think Sam Burns, he's a scoring machine that makes a couple bogeys. On these courses, Burns makes less mistakes and a ton of birdies. Put him on a tougher track and the birdies are still there, along with a few bogeys. That's the secret sauce for the Stadium Course(s); take advantage of the easy scoring. Grab guys who make birdies in bunches. Based upon the scoring history, our leader will be approximately seven under par per round. If there's any challenge this week, it comes on the par 3s. Six of the 12 par 3s are over 200 yards and many of them are surrounded by penalty areas. Our card is covered with solid ball strikers just for this reason. If you're looking to differentiate yourself, pay attention to the par 4s. The last 10 winners have gained an average of nine strokes on the field across the 30 par 4s. The AMEX gives you a ton of medium and short 4s to score on. Whether you approach from the fairway or dormant rough, it really doesnโt matter. No tournament has enough par 5s to keep up. Dunlap was 11 under on the 4s last January. Nick also annihilated the par 5s, but scoring on all those 4s is imperative. For those who love to look at par ranges, I switched it up this week since only one course has Shotlink data. Instead, I counted the quantity of par holes and provided the most common for each type.
I based our betting card on every scoring skill I could evaluate. Our guys make birdies/eagles, and they have been doing it in bunches recently. I expanded some of the pre-tourney prop bets and H2Hs based upon the history of longshot winners. By keeping the card diversified (and tight), we leave ourselves open for a slew of live betting options over the weekend. Outright Winners - The American Express
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