Mile High Club ๐ฎโ๐จ
Signature statusCASTLE ROCK, CO The PGA TOUR released the โ2025 scheduleโ last week. What I love most about the BMW Championship is that it moves. Last year it was in Illinois, this year Colorado, and next year Maryland. I understand we can't move every event, but because of the changing venue, the BMW is unique in my mind. The PGA TOUR has not visited Castle Rock, Colorado since 2006. The International Tournament was a mainstay on the TOUR from 1986 to 2006. Located just south of Denver, Castle Pines Golf Club sits at 6,000 feet above sea level. Our tournament history and data goes back that far, but our players pretty much don't. Only two guys in the field have competed here: Adam Scott (2000) and Jason Day (2006). We are down to the top 50 on the FedEx Cup points list for the second round. Only the top 30 will make the trip to East Lake. We will lose 20 players again this week. Even with quadruple points, making the move into the next echelon is difficult. Only three players made the jump last week in Memphis from outside the top 50. The purse is still $20 million and the winner receives $4 million. The entire field plays all four rounds just like the St. Jude. As you saw last week, players can make huge moves over the weekend, so be careful writing anyone off on Thursday. BMW Championship starts in...Welcome to the rockJack Nicklaus designed Castle Pines Golf Club in 1980. Set atop a mountain, we are 1,000 feet above mile-high Denver. At first glance, the par 72 layout measuring 8,130 yards more than catches your attention. Fact is at this elevation, the players will experience a 7.5% increase in carry distance. Quick math, that reduces 8,100 yards to 7,400+. A 7,400 yard golf course with four par 5s will allow for some serious scoring. Twenty years ago when the equipment was far inferior to today's tools, the average winning score was 20 under par for the final 14 years The International was played. To compound the scoring expectation, The tournament was always played after the PGA Championship. Tiger never made the trek to Castle Pines along with many of the other stars of that day. The golf course has some crazy elevation changes. The field of 50 will walk 5.6 miles every 18-holes and climb over 660 feet! The air is thin up there and after an incredibly hot week in Memphis, I'm even thinking about the fatigue factor. Looking ahead, we are going back to the heat and humidity of Atlanta for the Tour Championship. Has anyone ever heard of the northeast in late August; it's beautiful. The forecast this week is warm for the Denver region. Temperatures are expected to be in the high 80s and thunderstorms each afternoon. The wind will be mild and not the player's most menacing challenge. The true test of Castle Pines is really the elevation. All but two players in the field have never played here before. There are 10 holes with water in play, 77 bunkers, and 27 acres of fairway. All of those "hazards" force you to keep the ball out of trouble. These guys have to adjust their yardage books by 7.5%. For example, if you normally carry your 7-iron 200 yards, it now goes 215. The eleventh hole is a 200 yard par 3 with water in front and an elevation drop of 66 feet! Figure that one out in two practice days. These guys are going to score here, but the adjustment factor is a big part of handicapping this tournament. The first four holes descend down the mountainside. Five six and seven meander up and down and then eight and nine really climb back toward the clubhouse. The same holds true on the back nine, ten and eleven go straight down. Seventeen and eighteen bring you back up and I mention this breakdown for a couple of reasons. This isn't just figuring out new carry distances on flat holes. The second, CPGC is full of uneven lies. The best ball strikers benefit from solid contact on all sorts of uneven surfaces. Again, I see plenty of scoring here, but the setup definitely favors the Scheffler and Schauffeles of the field. Greens are medium sized at 5,600 sq/ft and covered in the common Poa-annua Bentgrass blend. They look perfect and roll lightning fast. This is a beautiful setting for golf. With so many cascading waterfalls and scenic overlooks it is easy to get distracted. This has all the makings of an incredible shootout over the weekend. One filled with a lot of UPS and DOWNS. Pay attention to those elite players who adjust their approach game the best over the opening rounds. Those will be our live betting leaders. Last week, the setting was extremely vanilla. A good test, but very mundane from tee to green. This venue is completely different. Walking around on-site you can also feel an increased sense of urgency. There's two weeks left for most of these guys to close, save, or maintain their season. If you thought last Sunday was good in Memphis, wait until the BMW delivers something special for the second round of the FedEx Cup Playoffs. Ultimate driving machineLooking back through the trends of the previous International winners, we find a couple player characteristics we really need to focus on. The first, and not a hot take, is approach play. I touched upon the need to adjust this week and watching players prepare the launch monitors are getting an incredible workout. I think these guys are taking them inside for lunch. This is such an interesting โone offโ week. At least when this was a TOUR stop, we could compare course form, but these elite guys have not played on a venue this high since the 2020 WGC in Mexico (Chapultepec Golf Club). That course sat at 7,000 feet above sea level. Looking through those leaderboards we have a couple current players to watch. I broke down the yardage buckets at elevation and we are looking at 50% of our approach shots coming from over 175 yards. Eight thousand yards is still a long course even with thin air. Long iron approach play will separate you from the field and with four par 3s averaging 222 yards in length, par will be a very good score on those holes. I can do all the math in the world, but 11 holes have downhill approaches and six have uphill iron shots in. All of the terrain considerations and length adjustments have me heavily favoring the best approach players in the best form. Only two players in the field have tournament experience at CPGC so the rest are trusting their impact. Some approaches will be missed. It happens under normal conditions, but this week it will happen more often. I'm also adding scrambling skills to my research. Miss a yardage or get close to one of these 600+ yard par 5s and you'll need a savvy short game to score. The target is 20+ sub-par scores. Getting there will require a couple of accurate pitches. Not to mention, a few sand saves or around the green par plays. Walking the property it is obvious the ground is receptive. For those with a great iron and short game, I see a definite advantage. Nicklaus loves levels in his green complexes. Much like the cascading falls you see alongside these fairways, the greens have layers as well. Three putting is a consideration and considering the firmness and speed, this is the opposite of last week. We need good putters. Team "no-putt," need not apply. So many of the greens blend into the landscape of the mountain. Good green readers see outside the putting surface. Bad putters will miss these visual keys and miss. The Poa annua - Bentgrass blend we see often enough to realize who excels on that surface. The greens look and feel perfect. It is easy to say most weeks, but good putters will score and separate themselves. Once again, this course is 8,000 yards. We have to play bombers if we expect to gain an advantage. Last week in Memphis was the week to play the positional guys. These fairways are generous and guys will be letting the shaft out with the big stick. Ball speed is a featured skill when the average par 4 is 479 yards! I know there's an elevation adjustment, but considering the opportunity four par 5s present, the guys who can get home in two will have a huge advantage over four rounds. Outside of the occasional par save and scoring pitch, I'm not nearly as interested in bogey avoidance as I am BoB%. We need guys who score this week. When they played the International, it was a Stableford event. That scoring format is perfect for places where birdies are commonplace. For example, nobody would watch a US Open using Stableford when half the field has zero points. We need aggressive players this week. Unfortunately, one of the most aggressive players on TOUR is Scottie Scheffler. Few courses have as many elevation changes as Augusta National Golf Club. We know Jack loves that course and there are a couple of interesting tee shots and approaches that remind me of Magnolia Lane. As I walk around, I'm in awe of the setting, but overall this isn't a very tough track. Your long iron game will really help you on the par 3s. I like guys who are great 200+ scorers on par 3s as an extra edge. Winning will require 20+ sub-par scores. Possibly even 25, as these guys are really good. As the field tightens, so will our outright card. Take a look at this week's list and let's get number win number 10. Outright Winners - BMW Championshipโ Coughlin continues...The weather was pretty awful on the west coast for the Women's Scottish Open. Lauren Coughlin bested the field by four strokes. She was the only woman to fire four rounds in the 60s. It was incredible playing considering the wind and weather the women had to compete in. The LPGA will travel east and visit the birthplace of golf; St. Andrews. The AIG Women's Open celebrates its forty-eighth edition and twenty-fourth as a major championship. St. Andrews is hosting the championship for the third time. I guess the Scots take the Gentlemen Only Ladies Forbidden thing pretty seriously. All kidding aside, this championship should have been celebrated for decades on the Old Course. One thing we can say, the two editions that have taken place have incredible champions. In 2007 Lorena Ochoa won The Open at five under par. In 2013 it was our current Solheim Cup Captain; Stacy Lewis. Lewis won with an eight under par total. All twenty-five of the top 25 in the Rolex World Rankings are playing in the 156 player field. The top 70 and ties will compete all four days for $9 million. A first-place check of $1.35 million will be handed to the female Champion Golfer of the Year! AIG Women's Open starts in...The Old CourseMany of us are familiar with the Old Course, it has hosted 30 Open Championships. The women will play a par 72 scorecard stretching 6,784 yards. Only two holes face water (one and 18), but there are 116 bunkers strewn across this wasteland setting. Some holes are actually tough to make out. There are bunkers everywhere, dual greens, and very little in the background to help define the fairways and greens. Nine holes take you out to the River Eden and then nine holes return. Set alongside the North Sea, St. Andrews number one challenge can be the weather. The ladies should expect another interesting week in Scotland. The LPGA is in Scotland, make sure you make all of your weekend wagers on Wednesday! The forecast calls for rain on Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will ceiling in the low 60s all four days and there will be wind. Thursday looks like the toughest day with a 75% chance of showers and 25 mph winds out of the WSW. Not as bad as if it was off the water on the east, 25 mph winds across a peninsula setting void of trees will give even the best ball strikers fits. The weather will play into our betting card narrative. Not only are we looking for the best ball strikers, but also those women who have handled the elements across the pond and proven they can contend. For the first time since the season started, Nelly Korda is NOT the betting favorite. Ayaka Furue based off her Evian win and third place on Sunday in Scotland takes the top odds spot. You can tell these women are excited to play at such a historic venue. The press conferences and player content has been extremely positive. That being said, Thursday will be brutal. I wonder how they will all react walking in across the Swilcan Bridge after round one. Drive for show, putt for doughThere are a couple of very unique aspects of St. Andrew's Old Course that have not translated to any other major championship venue. These specific characteristics determine success and by emphasizing them in our 2022 outright card for the Open Championship, RTL was able to successfully pick Cam Smith to become the Champion Golfer of the Year. The first is the actual scorecard. The Old Course only has two par 3s and two par 5s. There are 14 par 4s and the impact of those players who can score on par 4s is greatly emphasized. I took a deep dive into par 4 scoring to build this betting card. It isn't just long or short 4s, it is the full complement of par 4s that we see here which make such a difference in differentiating the field. Par 4 scorers are generally the best ball strikers in the business. The more 4s a course has, the more opportunities these players have to separate. The next unique feature is the exact opposite of separating and that is the dual greens on the Old Course. Seven shared greens make up the design (2-16, 3-15, 4-14, 5-13, 6-12, 7-11, 8-10). Notice how the shared hole numbers all add up to 18! Another example of how nothing on this course is arbitrary. Which is amazing considering we live in a golf world where manicured catches our attention and messy seldom gets noticed. Those joined greens average 13,608 sq/ft. That's twice the size of the greens at Augusta National. That green size determines your winner in two ways. First, we must pay attention to the best putters. It's easy to three putt when you have 75' approach putts. Green speeds will be slow with the weather and wind. It is no wonder Cam Smith won in 2022. Players will roll a bunch from off the green as well. To help limit long putts, the second player feature we are looking for is not just strokes gained approach or GIRs. Everyone will be hitting the greens, but who strikes the ball closest to the hole. Approach proximity is a huge factor at St. Andrews. The lies won 't be level on this moonscape surface so great ball strikers on approach who hit it close can really differentiate themselves. Length has always been a big factor on the Old Course. Only 5 of the 14 par 4s are over 400 yards. Long players gain an advantage getting close to these par 4s and scoring. They gain another advantage on the over 400 yard 4s as well. Not to mention the two par 5s. Strokes gained off the tee favors length over accuracy and with some of the widest fairways of any major championship venue, the bombers can literally let loose and seldom face too much trouble. Keep it clear of the fairway bunkers and you're good to go. I don't believe this will be a scoring fest, but every birdie counts in these conditions. I took the best scorers who can also SCRAMBLE. The Old Course will challenge you with any number of interesting opportunities. The more creative the ball striker, the better. The best way to tell who can really strike it and score with their short game is to lean on the best scramblers. Not just around the green acumen, but the ability to get the ball in the hole under any circumstances inside 80 yards. The impact becomes twofold, score and save shots when necessary. The fifth and final major will be the best one this year based upon venue. I sense a very heightened approach by the best players. The Olympics and Scottish showed us the very best women know this week is coming. Winning on the Old Course is elite company. The timing of form and venue doesn't come along for everyone. Nelly, Charley, and others will be pushing very hard to get this title. Enjoy the early morning entertainment, this should be an incredible cap to an extraordinary major season. Outright winners - AIG Women's Open
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