West coast finale?

Another wild charge up the leaderboard at the AT&T by world number one Scottie Scheffler. Plenty of pundits complain about the Scheffler situation on the odds board pre-tournament. I have said this on the Golf Channel, and with Pat (Mayo), Scheffler is not a pre-tournament outright play. That's two weeks in a row where a simple top 5 bet, along with another live top 10, both win. Together, those two bets cleared nearly what Scheffler was to start the week! Sharp bettors could have kept hitting the Scheffler live placement markets on Sunday morning. Before the final round, Scottie was still +120 to finish inside the top 10! Mind you, this won't happen every week, but the point is, if you watch the Scheffler scoreboard, you can take advantage of this epic top 10 streak.

We are headed back to the famed Riviera Country Club for the Genesis Invitational. Tiger's tentpole event of the West Coast swing, 72 players will compete for $20 million. Back-to-back signature starts on the PGA TOUR heat up the action as the top 10 in the OWGR are heading to Los Angeles. Torrey Pines was a fine substitute last year, but it is good to be back in the Pacific Palisades. Let's hope the return of this event brings some much-needed tourist revenue to the region. The last time the TOUR visited "Riv," Hideki Matsuyama closed out the final round with a 62! Just one shot off the course record of 61 owned by Ted Tryba. How about that for a blast from the past. Tryba fired that 61 in 1999. I was there that Hideki Sunday and Matsuyama put on a clinic with his iron game over the closing nine holes. We are just three weeks away from THE PLAYERS. This little stretch of event entertainment has been awesome. WM Phoenix, into AT&T, then Genesis, API, and golf's "fifth" major all in a six-week run! What is next year going to feel like when we have even more elevated tournaments stacked in succession?

Genesis Invitational starts in...

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Back at Riv

The first round of the Women's US Open will take place in 106 days at Riviera. In 2028, Riviera will play host to the golf competition in the Summer Olympics. Everyone loves this course, and with good reason; it is a very well-designed test of golf. The average winning score over the last five editions is 15 under par. Vegas has set the winning score over/under at 16.5 under par. The last time we visited here in 2024, the par 71 scorecard stretched 7,322 yards. Sixty-one yards have been added to the course on the par 3 fourth (37 yards) and par 4 eighteenth (24 yards). Two of the hardest holes relative to par have now been made significantly more difficult. One word you will hear a bunch this week is Kikuyu. This is the type of grass Riviera has in the fairway, collar, tee boxes, and the rough. The greens are covered in Pacific Poa Annua grass. Those putting surfaces are pretty big at 7,500 sq/ft (on average). The guys have 37 acres of fairway to hit and 58 bunkers to avoid. No water over these 18 holes, we all love this course because it is a wonderfully innovative mix of grass, sand, trees, and barranca.

I mentioned the top 10 in the OWGR were playing, but this field is also hosting 41 of the top 50 in the world. This is the final event of the West Coast tournament schedule in this form. Come 2027, I do not believe we will see any of these events in February. Honestly, that is a good thing. Both Riviera and Pebble Beach are fantastic venues. Playing them during the coldest and wettest time of year does not really display their venue value. This George Thomas design from 1927 is a top-three course on the PGA TOUR. When your best comp course is Augusta National Golf Club, you are a great examination of golf skill. The Genesis is not your standard signature series event. Tiger has the first-place check bumped up to $4 million, and there is a cut to the top 50 and ties after 36 holes. If a player falls within 10 shots of the lead, they will also play the weekend. A perfect little Tiger twist, and since the Genesis was designated a signature event, the average cutline number is one over par.

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How to win?

Picking the winner at Riviera can be very difficult. Of all the venues on the West Coast swing, this course requires every aspect of your game to be on point. Consider that once this became a signature series event, the separation amongst players in the field became razor-thin. An elite field is competing here this week following a signature warmup at Pebble Beach. Many parallels have been drawn between Augusta National Golf Club and Riviera Country Club. If I told you 29 of the last 32 winners of the Genesis Invitational have a T22 finish or better at the Masters, you would start to see why. For all of this conversation, please keep in mind that Ludvig Åberg's win last year doesn't apply; that was at Torrey Pines. Getting back to Augusta, seven of the last 11 winners at Riviera (in the Genesis) WON the Masters! Why the correlation? In my opinion, it starts with the par 4s. These courses have two of the best collections of par 4 tests in the world. Riviera, at a par 71, has 11 of them at an average length of 443 yards and quite possibly the most discussed par 4 in the world, hole 10.

Fifteen of the last 17 Genesis winners were 29 or older. For the record, Scottie Scheffler is 29. Even more interesting than the age cutoff is that 17 of the last 19 winners at Riviera CC played in four or more Genesis Invitationals before they won. Much like ANGC, it takes time to learn this golf course. A true sign of a venerable venue. Scheffler checks that box too, with seven previous starts. Sorry, I'm just messing with you all, Scheffler fits the mold at more than one or two courses, even if they are Riviera and Augusta National. What these trends succinctly express is a maturity factor. Fifteen of the last 19 winners registered a T12 or better in the Pacific Palisades. When it comes to experience at Riviera, there are three skill sets that immediately come to mind.

• There are several really difficult tee shots to tackle this week. Experience in the event is vital when you peg it on holes 5, 7, 12, 13, and 15. The drives on 12 and 13 in particular are extremely demanding. The best drivers in the world contend here. Much will be said about other aspects of the game, but if you cannot consistently get the ball in play off the tee at Riviera, you're looking at a short week, even with these easy cutline rules.
• Thirty-two of the 58 bunkers are found greenside on George Thomas' design. The Kikuyu rough is different. Many players only see this blade at Riviera and outside the United States in Australia, South Africa, or Mexico. The field used to see it at Torrey Pines, but even they have gone to a Rye grass overseed. It is sticky and unpredictable around the green. It will help knowing the putting surfaces will be soft, but overall, between the severity of these bunkers and the Kikuyu, experience becomes your best asset in avoiding bogeys over 72 holes. Over the last five years, the winner has gained an average of +3.1 strokes on the field around the green.
• Large greens, wildly undulating, cause many a competitor to three-putt. Still on Poa Annua, these greens will be soft and carry plenty of bumps and footprints. The average three-putt rate at Riviera is eight percent higher than the weekly PGA TOUR average. Many of the previous winners have putted well at Torrey and Pebble in the weeks leading up to their Riviera win. If you love to dive into the research, that's where I would spend my flatstick focus.

The most impactful skill needed to capture this championship is approach play. Six of the last nine winners have gained +4.5 strokes or more with their iron game in the week they won. If we could exactly predict who the five most accurate iron players and Poa putters will be in advance of Thursday, I guarantee we would have 40% of the top 10 figured out. Winners gain significantly from outside 200 yards on the field. The three par 5s, long par 4s, and newly lengthened par 3 fourth hole will all be evidence of that. The most significant par 3 approach range bucket is 175-200 yards. Getting back to the comp courses, Riviera plays like a major championship venue. Players must separate with their mid and long irons. Don't get fooled by a majority of the finishes at Pebble Beach. That was a wedge fest. The approach game applied at TPC Scottsdale or Torrey Pines is far more applicable.

The last 10 winners averaged 21 sub-par scores the week they won, yet the average winning score of the Genesis Invitational is 14 under par in that same decade. Our winner will need a great birdie-to-bogey ratio. Going back to those greenside sandy graves and uneven Kikuyu lies surrounding these putting surfaces, we want major championship style scramblers. The fourth hole alone may require four straight rounds of getting up and down at 250+ yards for a par 3. When it comes to the par 3s, winners gain more on the 3s against the field than they do on the 5s. Another reason why Riviera is such a well-rounded examination. I love this golf course and have been so impressed by the facility being on the property each of the last three years. This is one of the top two or three non-major venues on the PGA TOUR. Fifteen of the last 17 winners owned three or more professional wins before winning the Genesis Invitational. Closers need only apply for a picture with Tiger Woods (our host) on Sunday evening.

Outright Winners - Genesis Invitational

LPGA

Let's try this again

There's not much more that can be said about the handling of the final round in Orlando. The cut to 54 holes and subsequent fallout from that decision have been a black cloud over the LPGA for three weeks. The decision to send out the pro-am celebrities for nine holes, and the professional women didn't even try to play the fourth round? RTL had all four outrights in the top 9 with 18 holes to play. All FOUR! It's time to move on, and speaking of moving, we are going to move across the globe to restart the 2026 LPGA season. The Honda LPGA Thailand has been a fixture on the LPGA calendar since 2006 and at the present venue since 2010. A field of 72 players will compete for 72 holes at Siam Country Club's Old Course. The defending champion is Angel Yin, who set the tournament scoring record last year, finishing at 28 under par, one stroke ahead of Akie Iwai. The LPGA winter Asian swing will cover the next three weeks. We will have golf starting on Wednesday nights, so don't forget to place those wagers before the women tee off around the world.

Polar layout

The Old Course at Siam Country Club is a familiar sight in Thailand. A par 72 layout covering 6,649 yards, this parkland-style golf course gives an edge to incredible iron players and longer hitters. Even though it has tree-lined fairways and seven holes where water comes into play, look at the list of past champions: Patty Tavatanakit, Nanna Koerstz Madsen, Ariya Jutanugarn, Lexi Thompson, and Jessica Korda, just to name a few. Eighty-three bunkers guard these grounds along with those aforementioned penalty areas. The average winning score over the last five years is 24 under par! Over the last decade, that number drops to 22 under par, and all-time on the Old Course, it is 20 under par. Needless to say, you’d better pack a putter, and that makes sense since Lilia Vu and Angel Yin have both won here in the last three years. Patty Tavantankit is always thought of as a bomber, but she is also an incredible professional flatstick player. Seven of the top 10 Rolex-ranked players are competing (21 of the top 25) for a $1.8 million purse.

The Old Course at Siam CC is the only course we cover all year on either tour where the entire layout is north-south. Nine holes run north and nine holes run south. With this wind, four of the final five holes will play with the breeze at your back. The irony of this event is that we see major caliber winners, and the average winning score is in the 20s! This is not a hard golf course, and with the soft conditions, contenders must be ready to score. Keep an eye on the hometown heroes this week. The Thai players take this event seriously; look at the recent leaderboards. In 2025, three Thai players finished in the top 4, in 2024, it was two in the top 4, and in 2023, it was two in the top 3! One of those players always seems to be world number one Jeeno Thitikul, but you get the point. Patty T, Ariya, Jeeno, and Natthakritta Vongtaveelap are all examples from over the years. One last item on my radar is the PIF Saudi Ladies International. Not everyone in the field took three weeks off...

How to win?

The bermudagrass greens will be receptive for scoring at Siam CC. Players will need to take dead aim with their irons to contend. The last three top 10s on the leaderboard have averaged the largest gains on approach. Those same ladies average hitting 78% of their GIRs. I'm starting with historically great iron players. Orlando was not a great gauge, and this event tends to reward the same women year after year. The field should be ready for a fast start. That's where the iron game plays such a significant role. With an average par 4 length of 384 yards, get the wedge out and start target practice on these rain-soaked surfaces.

Similar to the men, Par 4 scoring is very representative of solid play. At Siam CC, eight of the top 10 toughest holes are Par 4's. Then again, some, like the fifteenth, are huge scoring opportunities. That careful blend of making par when needed and attacking when possible is the epitome of the Par 4 opportunity on the Old Course. There are a couple of really good 4 scorers in this field, and you better believe they are listed below. The best place to take complete advantage of the Old Course is on the short par 5s. Par 5 scoring leads to a successful stay at Siam. The par 3s and 4s have played just around par by the leaders, but the 5s have been destroyed on the scorecard by the world’s best women.

The contending women gained three times more off the tee than with their short game. The fairways are tree-lined at Siam’s Old Course. Great drivers can create an edge on the field by putting a bunch of tee shots in play. The 2022 winner, Nanna Koertsz Madsen, is one of the longest players on tour. She used her advantage and hit well over 80% of her greens in regulation by driving the ball 295 yards (on average)! More scoring opportunities happen with a wedge in your hand versus a mid-iron. This is definitely a track meet. Celine Boutier made thirty birdies against Madsen and lost! Angel Yin and Akie Iwai were a combined 55 under par in 2025!

You know, when it comes to covering the LPGA, I keep notes on every leaderboard. It is times like these, in the second event of the season, after a three-week break, we need an edge, and I have it all written down. I compare swings, form, and skills to determine who will contend statistically (and visually). By combining a player's birdie rate, strokes gained scoring, and their ability to play sub-par holes, throw in rounds in the 60s, and we can definitely understand who has the best chance to take it deep. This homemade recipe for reading the odds board and using our scoring charts as the lead analytic will determine our winning pick. Players with a low scoring average also maintain a positive birdie-to-bogey ratio. I find this particular relationship great to measure success on both hard and especially shoot-out courses like Siam CC.

We know this is one of the easier venues on tour, and Jeeno must be really motivated to win in her home country. I feel like we are now betting against Scottie on both tours! Thitikul has finished 2-8-3-3 here in four starts since 2021, and at +350 (lol), she is just un-bettable. To make matters worse, Friday is her 23rd birthday. We have a very strong card filled with incredible iron players and awesome course history. Savvy scoring players who can get hot with the putter on these Bermudagrass greens. That's what it will take to win. Three weeks of overnight golf are coming our way. Get your wagers in on time each Wednesday; you don't want to miss our first overnight winner of 2026!

Outright Winners - Honda LPGA Thailand

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